Preseason poll is up (total votes and first place points in parentheses):

1. Union (47) (5)
2. Ithaca (41)(1)
3. RPI (40) (1)
4. Hobart (31)
5. SLU (23)
6. Rochester (21)
7. Buff St. (13)
8. Hilbert (7)

cool cool, we will leave you to your tumbleweeds

Quote from: DagarmanSpartan on August 27, 2026, 05:51:50 PM

Quote from: AndrewB on August 26, 2026, 11:53:58 PM

Quote from: Patrick Coleman on August 26, 2026, 09:37:18 PM

Quote from: unionpalooza on August 26, 2026, 03:42:00 PMThe talent pool from which Mt. Union and Williams can recruit are not the same.

This is not because of the size of the school, though.

But the point of this discussion was wether a NESCAC team would be a serious contender for a Stagg Bowl appearance.  Not with the small enrollment and low acceptance rate.  Unless they give special consideration to football players and compensation to them (NIL), they won't be playing in the National Championship game  anytime soon.  If you went to a Mega Camp this summer, out of the 50 best prospects, how many would be acceptable to these schools.  Maybe 5, but every single one, I would bet, would be accepted into Mount Union or Whitewater. 

Here's the thing.  CWRU has higher average SAT scores than some of the NESCAC schools.

But guess what?  Coach Debaljak admitted in an interview a year or two back that recruited football players get an extra thumb on the scale in the admissions office.

I'm pretty sure it's the same for football players in the NESCAC.  They will not necessarily meet all of the same academic admission standards that the rest of the admitted students do, and as a result, the talent pool they recruit may be larger than one would think.

For sure, there is absolutely a thumb on the scale at the NESCACs, and every school in D3.  But you can give that thumb a lot more weight without materially messing up your reported metrics when you have 6,500 students rather than 2000.  It's just the admissions office math. It may be that CWRU is just as judicious with the thumb as a NESCAC - in fact I'd wager it is.  But it has more latitude, if it wanted to use it.

EDIT:  In the NESCAC, there is also the fact that the league has a banding system and rules that limit the number of athletes that can be admitted that are moderately or significantly below normal admissions standards, so the constraint is quite real.  They have some leeway in terms of how they allocate those slots across sports; an interesting question is whether one or more decide to prioritize football in order to be more nationally competitive.  But that would mean deprioritizing other sports, in which the NESCACs are often quite nationally competitive.

Now that everyone but Buff. St. Has their 2026 roaster up, here's a roster breakdown for each team, including retention rates from 2025 for last year's freshmen, sophomores, and juniors.

Ithaca and RPI have a ton of seniors, and the largest rosters.  Next year, Union and Hobart are likely to look that way. Rochester is holding pretty steady; a lot of turnover at SLU. Ithaca shed a pretty decent chunk of last year's freshmen and sophomores, which seems like something to watch.

Hilbert only fields 52 guys, half of whom are new.  I'll let that speak for itself.


School          26 FY  26 SO  25FY>26SO  26 JR  25SO>26JR  26 SR  25JR>26SR  26 GR  Total  Total Ret.
--------------  -----  -----  ---------  -----  ---------  -----  ---------  -----  -----  ----------
Hobart             40     22      65.6%     26      85.3%     15      88.2%      1    104       78.3%
Ithaca             37     37      75.5%     17      77.3%     31      91.2%      1    123       81.0%
Rochester          41     27      80.6%     17      72.7%     20      90.9%      1    106       81.3%
RPI                32     36      81.0%     23      84.6%     29     100.0%      1    121       87.5%
St. Lawrence       32     27      71.1%     19      62.1%     15      83.3%      0     93       70.6%
Union              38     29      87.9%     27      93.1%     16      88.9%      2    112       90.0%
Hilbert            26     16      38.9%      4      40.0%      6      54.5%      1     53       42.1%

Yeah my point is just that while being small is generally not a serious challenge, it probably is a problem if you're also very selective.

Quote from: Patrick Coleman on August 26, 2026, 01:47:14 PMThis isn't high school. Size of enrollment isn't actually a primary driver of Division III football success. Mount Union won all 13 of those championships with an average or below-average enrollment for a D-III school.

While that's generally true, I'm not sure it's true for a high academic. You have a lot more recruiting leeway at 6,500 students then you do at a NESCAC, where the football roster is typically 5% of the student body. The only school with an acceptance rate south of 75% who won a title this century is Cortland (~60%). The talent pool from which Mt. Union and Williams can recruit are not the same.

Quote from: Patrick Coleman on August 24, 2026, 09:08:49 PMAgreed that certainly some of the D-III and D-II schools moving up play a role here, but it's also important to note that the nature of the NCAA Division III playoffs changed. From the beginning of the tournament until 1999, the East Region was granted an automatic berth in the national semifinals. There was no mixing of regions and the East had two or four playoff teams in the field, same as everyone else. An East Region team was planted on the doorstep of the Stagg Bowl for the first 27 years of the event. Yes, those Rowan teams or those Ithaca teams would have won their way into that position almost assuredly regardless of the structure of the bracket ... except if they were to play Mount Union before the Stagg Bowl, which toward the end of the old structure and the beginning of the new structure became the original Purple Power.

It isn't the entirety of the difference, for sure, but it's not nothing, either.

I'm not sure about that.  Since 2000, R1/2 teams have sat on the doorstep 17 times, playing for a Stagg Bowl birth in the semis.  They won one of those games. Prior to 2000, there are only 3 Stagg Bowls in which an R1/2 team didn't compete.  They didn't stop making the semis, they just stopped making the Stagg Bowl.  I think it's more likely that the format change just coincided with the end of the last East perennial contender (Rowan in the 90s).

FWIW, I think we may actually see another shift in the next few years with all the changes in FBS/FCS/D2.  Five-in-five is likely to reduce the number of scholarships available each year (especially for the programs that don't opt in to House) and the number of roster spots available each year (especially for those that do opt in).  Across the Northeast, that's probably something like 200-300 HS graduates each year who will no longer have an FCS option, and may end up in D3. I would expect that will move some needles.  (Of course, if D3 goes five-in-five, who knows; D3 is more likely than not to split in two in that event, anyhow.)

Quote from: ADL70 on August 24, 2026, 06:04:11 PMPatriot League football scholarships started with the 2013 recruiting class initially limited to 15, but gradually were increased to 60 over the next four seasons. Ironically the last Patriot team in the championship game was Colgate in 2003 (Losing 40-0 to Delaware). Awarding scholarships doesn't appear to have even helped the league compete in FCS.

FCS players from NE have also transferred to D3 schools as you pointed out. How many more were there? CWRU alone gained one FCS transfer in 2025 and another in 2026. Your "data point" doesn't even support your premise.

The last NE team in Stagg Bowl, prior to 2024 season was Rowan in 1999! It's quite clear that the NE teams' playoff performance had declined substantially before the added FCS scholarship programs.

Rather, the emergence of Mt Union and the addition of WIAC (Esp, Whitewater) and UMHB cut the NE teams out of contention. From 2005-2011 Mt Union and Whitewater met one another in the Stagg Bowl. The power in the division shifted westward.

No one disputes power shifted westward; the question is why.  I think the idea that nothing changed in the East and East programs are as strong as they always were and it's just that a series of powers emerged elsewhere is laughable.  There was a NY/NJ/PA team in almost every Stagg Bowl up until 2000, and it's happened once since.  And sure, the FCS pressure in the region has grown ever time - there are about ten programs that moved up from D3 in 90s, then went scholarship around 2006, joined by the Patriot League in 2013. It's been a slow burn.

I'm sure there are a range of reasons why the East produced many fewer title contenders than it once did, but it's a little more complicated than just "a few other teams got real good."

As for the "data point" - high-impact FCS to D3 transfers are exactly the point.  In the old East D3 landscape, all of those UAlbany transfers, plus most of the rest of the UAlbany roster, were playing at the better D3 programs in the region all four years. Today, we're lucky if a QB who can't move up the Albany depth chart occasionally transfers to a D3 program and lights it up for their last few years.

A good way to think about is - if you introduced 1,000 new FSC scholarships spots in the Midwest tomorrow (the number required to bring those states in parity with the Northeast based on population), would the strength of D3 programs in the region be unaffected? I think it would make a serious dent.

After watching Pat's interview last week with the UMHB coach, who reported they bring 230 guys into camp this year, it occurred to me that AI could answer a question I always wonder about - what do D3 football programs' retention rates actually look like?  I'm pretty old fashioned, and a big believer that you can tell an awful lot about whether a program is doing right by kids by looking at whether the kids they bring in as freshman stay on the roster over the years.

Not all the 2026 rosters are up yet, but the LL appears to do a pretty good job.  RPI retained 83% of its 2025 freshman on this year's roster, and 88.5% of its total 2025 non-senior cohort (so, 2025 freshman through juniors). Rochester retained 81% of its 2015 freshman, and 81% of the rest of its eligible 2025 roster.  Ithaca retained 75% of its freshman and 81% of its overall roster; Hobart brought back 66% of its freshman and 78% of its overall roster.  Union has not posted its 2026 roster yet, but they will be over 90% both for freshman and overall.

If you're looking for a gold standard, Hopkins has a 100% retention rate for 2025 freshman, and 94% overall.

On the opposite side of the ledger, Utica's numbers are ugly - just 60% of last year's freshman/sophomores/juniors are on their 2026 roster, and only 41% of last year's freshman return.

Mt. Union is worse - they retained only 51% of last year's freshman/sophomores/juniors, and just 44% of last year's freshman.

St. John was also surprisingly bad. Their 2026 roster is not up, but I ran 2024 to 2025, and their freshman retention rate was 54%, and overall retention rate was just 61%. So, basically the same roster turnover as Utica, which is not what I expected.

And finally, how about UMHB?  Well, there roster also is not up, so I ran there 2024 to 2025 numbers and... woof. Last year, they brought back 24% of their 2024 freshman, and just 28% of their eligible 2024 roster.  I know Pat's got to keep his interviews friendly, but the question I'd be really interested in hearing Coach Harmon answer is "What happened to the 75% of your roster that didn't come back?"  Maybe those are all still good student-athlete outcomes but... I doubt it.

If there were two numbers I wish D3 programs had to publish, it would be retention rates and 4/6-year graduation rates.  At least the former is doable with AI.
 

Quote from: Patrick Coleman on August 23, 2026, 08:01:53 PMA number of FCS programs have been discontinued in that time as well. And I will say, even though the Patriot League teams didn't offer scholarships 25 years ago, they still pulled a number of scholarship-type athletes regardless. They didn't reach the I-AA title game without I-AA level talent.

In the Northeast, not particularly.  There were 7 in 2000; they lost three, added 20.

And sure, the Patriot League has always been hard for D3 to recruit against.  But they're certainly harder to recruit against with scholarships.

Quote from: ADL70 on August 22, 2026, 03:02:56 PM

Quote from: unionpalooza on August 21, 2026, 06:20:23 PM

Quote from: unionpalooza on August 21, 2026, 06:08:11 PMI've often wondered to what extent the proliferation of D1AA/FCS and D2 programs in the Northeast is part of the reason that NY/PA/NJ went from regularly producing D3 title contenders to producing almost none. Prior to 2000, a team from one of those states played in the Stagg Bowl 23 out of 28 years.  Some of that is explained by regional brackets, but certainly not all. A lot of the difference-maker kids who would have have been playing at Ithaca, Union, Rowan, W&J, etc. once upon a time are, these days, playing at UAlbany,Stony Brook, Wagner, Fordham, etc. (all former D3), Monmouth/Robert Morris type schools (new programs) or Lafayette/Lehigh-type schools (which used to be non-scholarship).  There was a little bit of this elsewhere - for example, the Pioneer League teams that moved up in the Midwest, but they're all non-scholarship.

As a data point, consider that three of the best QBs to play D3 in NY since 2000 - Jason Boltus, Joe Germinero, and Shane Sweeney - were all transfers from just one of those schools: UAlbany. (There's also Tyler Szalkowski, another UAlbany transfer currently tearing it up at Utica).

What proliferation of D1AA/FCS and D2? What programs have been added since 2000? The one-time d3 teams you mentioned left about three decades ago.

Mt Union started its championship run in 1993. They eliminated most teams from the East Region. UMHB started its playoff run in 2001. The WIAC moved from NAIA to NCAA and began winning championships in 1992. NWC (Linfield) moved to NCAA in 1996. The relevant proliferation of programs was in D3.

Just doing FCS, there are 20 programs that have become FCS scholarship programs in the Northeast since 2000:  Albany (2006), Central Connecticut (2006), Monmouth (2006), Robert Morris (2006), Sacred Heart (2006), Stony Brook (2006), Wagner (2006), Duquesne (2008), Bryant (2008), Fordham (2010), Bucknell (2013), Colgate (2013), Holy Cross (2013), Lafayette (2013), Lehigh (2013), LIU (2019), Merrimack (2019), Stonehill (2022), Mercyhurst (2024), and New Haven (2025).  There are now 24 in total.

By contrast, there is a total of one FCS scholarship programs in each of Ohio, Indiana, and Iowa; 5 in Illinois; and none at all in Michigan, Minnesota, or Wisconsin.

To put that in context, those two geographic regions have about identical populations - there are about 1500 total FCS scholarships available in the Northeast, and about 500 across those 7 Midwestern rates.

As for D3 programs, WI is flat since 2000; OH and IN are each -1; IL and IA are each -1; MN is +2; MI is +4.  So those Midwest states combined are up one D3 program. 

The Northeast has added 19 new D3 programs since 2000; excluding the Northeast, total D3 programs nationwide are actually down since 2000.

Quote from: unionpalooza on August 21, 2026, 06:08:11 PMI've often wondered to what extent the proliferation of D1AA/FCS and D2 programs in the Northeast is part of the reason that NY/PA/NJ went from regularly producing D3 title contenders to producing almost none. Prior to 2000, a team from one of those states played in the Stagg Bowl 23 out of 28 years.  Some of that is explained by regional brackets, but certainly not all. A lot of the difference-maker kids who would have have been playing at Ithaca, Union, Rowan, W&J, etc. once upon a time are, these days, playing at UAlbany,Stony Brook, Wagner, Fordham, etc. (all former D3), Monmouth/Robert Morris type schools (new programs) or Lafayette/Lehigh-type schools (which used to be non-scholarship).  There was a little bit of this elsewhere - for example, the Pioneer League teams that moved up in the Midwest, but they're all non-scholarship.

As a data point, consider that three of the best QBs to play D3 in NY since 2000 - Jason Boltus, Joe Germinero, and Shane Sweeney - were all transfers from just one of those schools: UAlbany. (There's also Tyler Szalkowski, another UAlbany transfer currently tearing it up at Utica).

I've often wondered to what extent the proliferation of D1AA/FCS and D2 programs in the Northeast is part of the reason that NY/PA/NJ went from regularly producing D3 title contenders to producing almost none. Prior to 2000, a team from one of those states played in the Stagg Bowl 23 out of 28 years.  Some of that is explained by regional brackets, but certainly not all. A lot of the difference-maker kids who would have have been playing at Ithaca, Union, Rowan, W&J, etc. once upon a time are, these days, playing at UAlbany,Stony Brook, Wagner, Fordham, etc. (all former D3), Monmouth/Robert Morris type schools (new programs) or Lafayette/Lehigh-type schools (which used to be non-scholarship).  There was a little bit of this elsewhere - for example, the Pioneer League teams that moved up in the Midwest, but they're all non-scholarship.

F*ck NPI.  Everything that is truly great about D3 is served by games like this.  A million times better than flying out to UW-Somebody to maximize NPI.  Show me a school that is making scheduling decisions that are bad for NPI and I'll show you a school that is living the D3 way.

Quote from: IC798891 on June 22, 2026, 05:12:05 PMThis is not an apples to apples comparison in large part due to schedule strength, but looking at Utica's 4th year, they were 3-7, and competitive most weeks. They beat Hartwick and a 5-4 RPI, lost by 11 to 8-win Alfred and 17 to St. John Fisher's only Pool A team ever.

Hilbert went winless, and only two losses were even close: a 28-7 loss to 2-8 St. Vincent and a 15-8 loss to a 1-9 Buffalo State.

They grew their roster from 46 players in 2024 to 63 last year. Which is encouraging, but still seems low for a 4th year program

The Utica comparison highlights how far behind Hilbert is.  In addition to being competitive in most games by year three, Utica had a 95 man roster, had built a real facility, and was under the same HC that started the program - Mike Kemp, who had previously been HC at Plymouth State and OC at Cortland in the 1990s. I think Hilbert is happy just to field a team and cash the tuition checks - I see zero interest (and probably no capacity) to do what it takes for them to be competitive.