Quote from: camosfan on November 16, 2025, 10:56:19 AMToday's likely winners

Tufts
Con
Cort
Wes
St. Olaf
Aus
Williams
CNU
Dickinson
Emory
Macalester
Chicago
Trinity
Mid

@Camosfan, congrats for Tufts advancing.

You omitted Bowdoin from your list.  Was that intentional? 

Given recent history, it is surprising to see Amherst and Midd out so early. 

Will be fun to watch Tufts/Messiah and Bowdoin/Conn.

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 11, 2024, 03:55:09 PM

Quote from: Newenglander on November 11, 2024, 03:46:30 PM

Quote from: rdanie03 on November 11, 2024, 03:43:40 PMI feel really bad for Bowdoin, even as a jumbos fan. They are in their best form of the year, but being sent to San Antonio to play Trinity is no joke

agreed - but as far as D3 soccer goes that will be as close to a D1 experience they will get with travel and facility - great experience for them win or lose.

I agree.  I think this is a fantastic spot for Bowdoin.  Get out of the New England/Northeast cauldron...and getting to visit one of the most historic non-NESCAC programs in a great city.  What's not to like?  Far better than getting stuck in Maine after a mass shooting.  Trinity is very good but are they that much better than whoever Bowdoin would have to face in a 2nd round match elsewhere?  Tremendous opportunities for both Bowdoin and Hamilton.  I think they're fortunate.

You are correct, PN.  Particularly after the way last season ended with a tough loss at Tufts after being on lock-down, Bowdoin is thrilled to be in the tournament.  A flight to sunny San Antonio in November beats a bus trip to Middlebury.  I realize some teams that regularly make the tournament don't see it this way, but the opportunity to be playing in the tournament is a huge win, no matter where you go or who you play against.

Interesting . . . Can't recall an intra-NESCAC soccer transfer in the last 5 years.  Has there been one? 

He is a very good player.  I thought Midd already had a strong roster, especially on offense, despite loss of JSL.  Colby has great facilities, but a new coach and presumably rebuilding?

Good pickup for Midd.

Quote from: College Soccer Observer on November 05, 2023, 08:43:30 PM
My prediction for Pool C bids. This is organized by Region just to keep things easier for me.  Total of 23 bids available. 
Region I (4):  Conn, Middlebury, Tufts, Bowdoin
Region II (1):  Babson
Region III (3):  Oneonta, Rochester, Brockport
Region IV (2):  Franklin and Marshall, Washington College
Region V (1):  Rowan
Region VI (2):  Christopher Newport, Washington and Lee
Region VII (5):  Kenyon, Ohio Wesleyan, Case Western, John Carroll, Otterbein
Region VIII (2):  Chicago, North Central
Region IX (2):  UW Platteville, Carleton
Region X (1):  Colorado College

From your google doc to the committee's ears . . .

Quote from: Kuiper on October 30, 2023, 11:13:27 AM

Quote from: College Soccer Observer on October 30, 2023, 10:30:50 AM
Regarding strength of schedule, it is very challenging for Bowdoin, Bates, Colby, and Midd to get quality non-conference games.  Due to the NESCAC schedule, they are looking at weekday games, and their remote locations limits the options somewhat.  They often wind up with games against GNAC or NAC teams who are in geographic proximity.  Not really feasible to expect these teams to hit the road for every non-conference game.  Bowdoin did travel to Wheaton and Midd went to Vassar for games this year.  Bates traveled to Emerson and Colby had a game at Coast Guard Academy that was canceled. As others have noted, the Massachusetts and Connecticut schools and even Hamilton have easier access to quality non conference opponents.

I have no reason to doubt this, but it is interesting how different perspectives are about how far things are away from each other in the Northeast than in Region X.  The distance from Bowdoin to Boston for a weekday game is pretty modest compared to some of the distances teams in Region X travel routinely on weekdays.  I always assumed the reason some NESCAC teams schedule weaker non-conference opponents is because they believe they won't need the SoS bump given the NESCAC conference schedule.  After all, Bowdoin's SoS of .555 (as of last Wednesday) would be one of the higher numbers in Region X.

CSO is right, based on what I have seen and heard.  Normally schools try to schedule home and away, so even if the Maine schools and Midd were willing to travel more they need to find a dance partner or otherwise just accept playing far away non-conference road games.  SOS for the more conveniently located NESCAC schools are virtually always stronger.  It isn't about padding stats or feeling like just enough should be ok.  I suspect region X has a higher willingness to travel because it is so big, so long distance travel is a necessity.  In New England, most teams can find high quality competition at a short distance so they aren't willing to agree to a home/away series involving more extensive travel (in relative terms).  There is also a strong emphasis on academics at the NESCACs that probably also affects willingness to travel. 

So maybe Allen Iverson was wrong about the importance of practice?

Tufts was sharp yesterday and Bowdoin wasn't.  The final score made it look closer than it was, thanks to a late free kick goal by Rueda-Duran.  Bowdoin boarded a bus to Medford late Friday shortly after emerging from two days of lockdown.  Not the best way to lead up to a game.  Tufts played very well yesterday, much better than Tuesday, and that ultimately was the deciding factor.  Tufts' passing and tactics were crisp, reminding me of the famous Tufts teams under Shapiro.  I think Tufts has been somewhat under-looked this year given the undefeated seasons by Midd and Conn and the usual strong performance by Amherst.  I expect the Midd/Tufts rematch will be closer than the game two weeks earlier.

It was a disappointing loss for Bowdoin but I am hopeful their record (ties w/ Midd and Conn, only losses to Amherst and Tufts) will be strong enough for the tournament.  PN, I saw your thoughts in the national thread and hope you are right.

Shoutout to Tufts Athletics for agreeing to host the women's quarterfinal today, which was moved from Bowdoin to a neutral site.  (The Bowdoin women's team defeated conn 1-0 and advanced to the semi-finals next weekend.)

Camosfan, nice to meet you at the game, and congrats on the win.  (And I now know the origin of camos!)

Like you PN, i held back from commenting this week for similar reasons.  An athletic contest seems trite and trivial compared to what families who lost loved ones are going through; I didn't want to be seen as creating excuses for Bowdoin or diminishing Tufts if they won (Tufts won 1-0 on the road just a few days ago and if they win today it shouldn't have an asterisk).  Despite the challenges of this week the team has a lot of grit and resilience as they showed coming back after being down to Midd 2-0.  I can't predict any outcome but I am confident Bowdoin will play hard as they did on Tuesday.

I feel guilty getting ready to enjoy a soccer game given the tragedy this week.  But I am eager to see my son and cheer him and his teammates.  Soccer has been a wonderful family-bonding experience for us and I am grateful we get to share that again today.  I've run into a few other parents this morning and it definitely feels a little different.

Quote from: coach analytics on October 25, 2023, 03:06:24 PM

Quote from: College Soccer Observer on October 25, 2023, 01:26:05 PM

Quote from: maineman on October 25, 2023, 01:08:16 PM

Quote from: College Soccer Observer on October 24, 2023, 11:35:21 PM
Jumping over from the NESCAC thread for a moment.  Conn College and Middlebury both managed to navigate the NESCAC slate without a loss.  Conn had 5 wins and 5 ties, while Middlebury had 7 wins and 3 ties.  Middlebury finishes the regular season at 11-0-4, scoring 40 goals and only giving up 8.  They have only trailed for a total of 15 minutes all season (against Amherset in their first conference game before equalizing).  The Panthers have balanced scoring, with Jordan Saint-Louis with 8, Gavin Randolph with 6, and Tyler Payne with 5, and Colin Duggan and Luke Madden with 3 each.  The Panther defense has been rock solid, with 7 shutouts over their last 9 games.  Since giving up two goals to Vassar off corner kicks, Midd has been lights out winning headballs in the box, as evidenced by Tufts having 13 corners last weekend and generating nothing from them.  The Panthers have secured  hosting rights as long as they are alive in the NESCAC tournament, and will surely have a pool C bid awating them if they do not capture the automatic bid.  Midd will be a tough out for anyone in the postseason.

The good news is that they beat Williams and the bad news is that they have to play Williams again on Saturday.  The Ephs are very good despite being the #8 seed and they have an excellent goalie in Diffley.  Midd won the game by virtue of a penalty kick  Statistically, the game was somewhat even.  Midd had the edge 4-3 in corners.  We know corners don't always tell the story if you don't do anything with them.  See the Tufts game.  Shot wise, Midd had the edge 16 to Williams 9.  They big difference was Midd got 6 of those shots on net and Williams got none.  Grady did not have to make a save.  I know both teams are difficult to break down, but if Williams can generate some shots on net and put the pressure on Midd by scoring first, they could indeed upset the Panthers.  Also, I think Randolph and Payne are the chief scoring threats for Midd with 6 and 5 goals respectively.  St Louis has 8 goals but 5 of them are on PKs.  St Louis also has 8 assists and is the chief playmaker along with Nilsson..

Midd may have won on a pk, but they hit the post and had numerous other quality chances that Diffley saved or went just wide.  1-0 was the score, but it was closer to 3-0 than 0-0 in terms of chances created.

In assessing Mid's scoring potential (and Bowdoin), I would focus on their conference results not overall results.  They played a weak out of conference schedule and put up 11 goals in one game.  Look at Amherst, Conn and Tufts hoe they schedule.  Much more competition.

This is true but not in a meaningful way.  Midd and Bowdoin are 10 and 11 in SOS.  The other three NESCACs mentioned are 2, 5 and 6.

The comments on Williams are interesting.  Like Conn last year, Williams had an off year after being in the tournament final the year before.  Conn made it to the NESCAC final last year as the #8 seed, advancing on PKs in the first round against #1 seed Bowdoin.  Midd is very strong, but anything can happen.

Quote from: EnmoreCat on October 25, 2023, 07:30:58 AM
The EnmoreCat 2023 NESCAC Conference Final Guide

I've constructed this table, which aggregates the results from only the games that the top eight teams played against each other.  It's not that much different to the final table, but the order is slightly different and gives a nuanced perspective on performance (whether it's useful or not is another thing).  It's still very tight at the top end:

Middlebury 15 points 14 goals for/5 against
Amherst 12 points 11/8
Connecticut 11 11/9
Tufts 11 8/7
Bowdoin 9 7/4
Wesleyan 6 4/10
Hamilton 5 4/14
Williams 4 3/9 (if my math is wrong, apologies)

@Enmorecat, I didn't check your math, but it seems right and this is very interesting.  It is a subset (top 8) of a subset (conference only) so the sample size is small.  But in some ways it is similar to how the NCAA views R v R.  What most jumped out at me is Midd's goal differential margin of 9, which is equal to the aggregate winning margin of Amherst, Conn, Tufts and Bowdoin.  I didn't go back and look at whether that was due to piling on one particular opponent, but i don't recall seeing a Midd result like that.  Obviously we know from experience anything can happen in this conference; we saw Williams go on a crazy NCAA run last year after a not so impressive regular season.

Admitting self interest, I note that Bowdoin's margin of 3 is certainly respectable.  I think the Bowdoin offense is stronger than these numbers suggest, but I hear the feedback from you, PN and CSO.  I was pleasantly surprised that Bowdoin is first in fewest goals conceded in your analysis, particularly considering the very strong year by Midd's Grady.  Alex Ainsworth has had a great year and conceding only 4 goals against this group in his first year of collegiate playing time is exceptional. 

Bowdoin 0 -- Tufts 1

Tough loss for Bowdoin, who I thought played well and had several good chances but wasn't able to find the back of the net.  The Tufts goal reminded me of the goal conceded to Amherst a couple of weeks ago, where the initial attacker's shot was deflected, hit the post and bounced directly to another attacker.  A Bowdoin defender slid across the goal last night and very nearly blocked it.  As many have noted, these games are decided by the narrowest of margins.  Credit to Tufts for the road win.  Camosfan must be happy, and I appreciate him not gloating here.

The good news is that the teams play again Saturday and ultimately what will be remembered is who wins Saturday.

Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on October 24, 2023, 05:22:44 PM

Quote from: Yankeesoccerdad on October 24, 2023, 05:16:17 PM
So If Amherst and Bowdoin win, Midd is1, Amherst is 2, Bowdoin is 3 and Conn is 4 . . .  .

How about if Tufts wins and will be tied in points with Conn College, does Conn College fall to 5?  Saw that Conn tied Tufts. Depending on how Amherst and Bowdoin tie or lose (think not), Tufts could end up in 2nd or 3rd??

Fun times! A lot of drama.

If Tufts and Amherst win, Amherst is 2, Conn is 3 and Tufts is 4 on the basis of tiebreakers.  I think.  If Tufts wins tonight they get a home game against Bowdoin Saturday.

So If Amherst and Bowdoin win, Midd is1, Amherst is 2, Bowdoin is 3 and Conn is 4 . . .  .

@CSO, very fair point.  I tend to look at both overall and conference only, as the numbers tend to vary especially if there is a difference in SOS.  This year the difference in SOS doesn't seem meaningful and looking at more games offers a broader perspective. 

Looking at teams and conference only, Midd has the edge in margin (GF-GA) with Amherst and Bowdoin tied for second.  Point taken--Midd has a strong and diverse offensive force.  Tyler Payne's conference numbers especially stand out.  At the risk of being controversial, I personally discount JSL's stats given his age--he is a 2017 HS grad, making him several years older than most peers and a full five years older than Huck and Rueda-Duran.  It is hard to do an apples to apples comparison.

Camos and Northman, I think you are right that it is very likely Bowdoin and Tufts play twice this week.  The Tufts sports information release says Tufts has a chance to finish anywhere from 2 to 5 in seeding.  The most likely outcome is that Tufts/Bowdoin on Tuesday will determine who hosts the quarterfinal game, with Tufts needing a win to host.

Bowdoin enters the last game in good shape after defeating Colby 5-1 and Wesleyan 3-0 this week.  Those were much needed wins, as the Polar Bears were stuck a bit in the doldrums for a couple of weeks, with ties against Wheaton and Hamilton, a narrow, late win against Trinity (some of you think it benefitted from a generous ref) and a tough 1-0 loss to Amherst.  Tyler Huck paced the team this week as he has done all season, scoring the first goal in each game.  His goal against Colby was especially well-timed, as Colby was the first to score.  Huck responded 90 seconds later and his equalizer opened the door to four more goals, including one from Rueda-Duran.  Whatever had been ailing the team the first two weeks of October seems to have been cured and there is optimism heading into what I expect to be back to back games against Tufts.

As an aside, I know it has been noted years ago but since it was my first time there--the Colby fields and athletic facilities are amazing!  By far the best of any NESCAC, IMO.  The men's grass field is recessed with spectators in bleachers and grass on a hill overlooking the field (similar to Midd, but it feels closer and the field is grass).  The athletics building feels like something out of the SEC, not the NESCAC.  A little out of the way, but worth the trip if you haven't been.

Since CSO offered some interesting stats (I concede that trailing for only 15 min all season is impressive), I will offer a few for Bowdoin.  Rueda-Duran and Huck now rank first and second in the conference overall leader board for goals.  Through 9 conference games, Bowdoin has conceded only 6 goals, second only to Midd, which has conceded 5.  Considering the team lost 6 of the top 10 players from last year in minutes played, including POY Dylan Reid and first team all NESCAC GK Michael Webber, the team has had a great season to date.  Sophomore GK Alex Ainsworth had some big shoes to fill with Webber's graduation and has risen to the occasion.

Of course, as November approaches we get to the most interesting part of the season and anything can happen.  According to the Massey power ratings, which are supposed to be the better measure of potential, five NESCAC teams are in the top eight in D3, with Amherst at one and Midd at two.  No doubt Tuesday will offer some surprises, but I am looking forward to the next couple of weeks.

Quote from: stlawus on October 17, 2023, 08:17:47 PM
Not all teams have that issue. There's plenty of schools who have had no to very few 5th year players.

From what i have seen of the NESCAC, most players who expected to have meaningful playing time in 2020 took at least a semester off.  I think almost every team has a few fifth year seniors.  My sense is that it hasn't impacted recruiting because the effect was seen across the conference.