The combination of (1) a significantly declining pool of college applicants over the next 20 years (the pool peaked this year and will start going down), (2) changes in how a college education is viewed that are detrimental to a lot of the smaller, more liberal-arts oriented colleges in D3 (applicants increasingly want programs that are seen as tied to specific job opportunities post graduation), (3) many smaller colleges already on tenuous ground financially, (4) massive federal constraints being placed on higher ed including dissuading foreign students - the bulk of whom pay full fare - from attending U.S. colleges, huge endowment taxes on wealthier institutions, and the freeze of federal research grants that support a wide range of institutions, and (5) the impact of NILs across the collegiate landscape (albeit that will have a lower impact on D3) is going to accelerate what's already been happening in higher education. 

I expect that we will see a massive wave of smaller private (and some public) schools shutting down or merging over the next decade, or if not, radically changing their institutional priorities, which could include significant changes to athletic programming. 

Updated full list ....

Transferring from D3:

Toby Harris, Brandeis to Iona (D1)
Owen Varnado, Calvin to Tennessee Tech (D1)
Christian Green, Trinity (TX) to Stephen F. Austin (D1)
Justin Allen, Carnegie Mellon to UW-Green Bay (D1)
EJ Matthews-Spratley, Stockton to Millersville (D2)
Livingston Cross, Penn College to  Johnson U (D2)
Hampton Sanders, NYU to Columbia (D1)
Payton Thomsen, Bethel to Bemidji State (D2)
AJ Rohosy, CMS to Stanford (D1)
Carter Reese, Ohio Northern to Ohio (D1)
Tyrese Rho, Salem State to Point Park (D2)
Hamilton Campbell, HSC to Charleston-WV (D2)
Sunny Parker, McMurray to Clarke (NAIA)
Jadi Cunningham, Ohio Northern to Walsh (D2)


In the transfer portal (top-tier transfers, the majority will end up on scholarship):

Tye-Rell Monroe, St. Elizabeth's (one year, JUCO exception)
Charlie Randall, Amherst (two years)
Eli Beard, MHB (one year)
Brandon Kulakowski, Fredonia State (one year)
Kenneth Rogers, Westfield State (three years)
Drew Moore, Trine (one year)
Antonio Redding Jr., Delaware Valley (one year)
Nate Tucker, Trine (one year)


In the transfer portal (the rest)

Darrius Bolden, Stevens Point (one year, JUCO exception)
Charles Nelson, Fontbonne (one year)
Nas Johnson, Arcadia (one year)
Isaiah Amato, Whitman (I believe one year of eligibility as a grad transfer)
Khai Champion, Tufts (one year - maybe two?)
Moustapha Diop, Randolph (two years)
DeAndre Vortes, Illinois Tech (one year)
Joshua Iguade, Illinois Tech (two years)
Andre Treadwell, Lewis and Clark (one year)
Nate Jacobson, Cornell College (one year)
Colt Donley, Covenant (two years)
Tyler Bergmans, Vermont-Lyndon (three years)
Jacob Morgan, Goucher (two years)
Anthony Davis, Knox (two years)
Jakorri Arnold, Warren Wilson (three years)
Dakota Sellers, Mary Washington (three years)
Matthew Puodziukaitis, Saint Vincent (three years)
Justin Chapman, Ohio Northern (two years)
Cayden Jacoby, Ohio Northern (two years)
Grant Paetzold, Eau Clair (two years)
Cade Hogan, ETBU (three years)
Elijah Thomas, Carthage (one year)
KJ Williams, Carthage (one year)
Lance Nelson, North Park (one year)
Will Little, Bryn Athyn (one year)
Joevonn Mccottry, Aurora (one year)
Trenton Connolly, Earlham (three years)
Felipe Carter, Hunter (two years)
Troy Santos, Hartford (three years)
Ken Walker, Earlham (two years)
Connor Smith, Earlham (two years)
Kaosi Chijioke, Hartford (two years)
Vondre Chase, Emmanuel (one year)
Cooper Haberern, Susquehanna (one year)
Steven Cordero, Keene State (two years)
Lazzaro Ford, Warren Wilson (three years)
Frankie Idlett, Dean (two  years)
Elijah Harden, Heidelberg (one year)
TJ Gardner, North Park (one year)


Playing a fifth year at current school:

Luke Chicone, John Carroll (injury redshirt)
Omari DeVeaux, VWU (injury)
Peter Lash, NWU (one year)


Seniors / grad students of note with (I believe) remaining eligibility:

Malcolm Newman, Drew (injury)
Antuan Nesbit, Carthage (listed on roster but did not play this year, not sure why)
Zach Rosenthal, Roanoke (injury)


Transferring to D3:

Eli Ehrke - Sioux Falls (D2) to Gustavus Adolphus
Kenji Scales - Sioux Falls (D2) to UWEC
Will Boser - Concordia St. Paul (D2) to UWEC
Tyler Orr - Winona State (D2) to Stevens Point
Casen Lawrence - Truman State (D2) to IWU
Brady Ruffles - Air Force (D1) to IWU
Ethan Edwards - Brandeis to CWRU
Xavier Lewis - UMary (D2) to UWEC
Jacob Butler - River Falls to Lacrosse
Nick Roper - IWU to UChicago
Hasan Hammad - CNU to Mary Washington
Shane Regan - Wesleyan to UChicago
DJ Kourtney - Kalamazoo to Brandeis
Darren Rubin - Denison to NYU
Eli Bradley - North Dakota State (D1) to Southwestern
Matthew Schneider - Missouri Western (D2) to Maryville
Luke Reder - Missourie Western (D2) to UWEC

D3Bball he seems like a Callahan-Gold type which should make them even more potent.  I expect they will go ten deep as usual this year. 

I imagine most D3 guys who don't find a home in the portal stick with their original school.  A lot just want to test the waters and see what interest may be out there.  You have little to lose and with so much NIL money it's worth a shot ...

Sheesh Trinity is going to be a unanimous preseason number one I suspect.  Just loaded at every spot with a lot of guys who will have to sit who'd play big roles elsewhere.  Any intel on who this transfer is? 

Tufts looks stacked as well, a top ten team for certain, and yet hasn't come close to Trinity's level. 

Just saw posted that Vassar's coach is going to be the choice for CMU.  A very good hire and if he could convince all-American Shea Fitzgerald to join him, it would certainly make things a lot more interesting for them the next two years ...

I do think the UAA will be atypically top-heavy next year.  The top three look really good.  After that:

NYU loses its coach and its top seven scorers from last year, and hasn't (as of yet) announced any impact newcomers.  It's basically an entirely different team, with no one returning who scored over 3.4 ppg and of now no head coach to even be recruiting replacements! 

CMU loses a top-five D3 player to Division 1, plus its other star, from a team that was just mediocre even with those two guys.  All told, they lose 52 out of 78 ppg from the roster. Like NYU, they are currently without a head coach so rebuilding in this off-season will be pretty much impossible. 

Case Western was bad last year and loses a crazy 73 out of 80 points per game from the roster. Now that the COVID era is over and there are far fewer fifth-year grad transfers available to snag, they are really paying the price for that roster-building method (which worked incredibly well for a few seasons).   

Brandeis loses four of its top five scorers, including an all-American to D1, from a team that was mediocre.  I think they may have a decent record because on paper they have easily the fourth-best roster in the league, but still a significant step down from the top three. 

And Rochester has already been covered.   

If I was picking an over-under for "total league games that Wash U., Emory, and UChicago will lose to the rest of the league combined," I think I'd set it at 1.5!  It's a very weird year coming up for a league in transition with three (at worst) top 25 caliber teams beating up on a bunch of teams that will all likely be outside the top 150, except possibly Brandeis.     

Agree that UChicago is a national contender but Emory seems loaded as well and (like UChicago) is a lock for the pre-season top 10.  They return six of their top seven guys (by minutes) from the Elite 8 game, and were one shot from making the Final Four last year.  Knight, Pearce and Harris will form at worst a top-three perimeter group nationally, with Knight and Pearce locks to be pre-season all-Americans.  While there are some question marks on the interior, Awasum made a late season leap and looks likely to be a solid replacement for Shanahan as the starting center. 

Wash U loses two stars graduation, but with everyone else back and some high-profile recruits, seems likely to be a top 25 team as well. 

The rest of the UAA, however, looks pretty rough next year ...

We have yet to see who Colby will hire, of course, but this is now two NESCAC schools who have likely alienated generations of former players and fan bases by passing on / parting ways with solid coaches with longstanding ties to the program, each of which had decades of stability at the top.  Of course, Colby never came close to Amherst's level of success in the NCAA tournament era, so at least they aren't tossing away decades of national contention, but looking at how that decision has worked out for Amherst .... let's just say Colby has a lot of pressure to absolutely nail this hire. 

If you look at the program Strahorn inherited, in the prior 11 years, Colby had five sub-.500 records, zero NCAA tournament appearances, and zero appearances in the NESCAC title game.  And he frankly inherited a very limited roster.  His first few years were rough as a young coach with limited talent on hand, but the trajectory of the program has been steadily improving and he's right now in what should be his coaching prime - as I said in a prior post, in the last five seasons, during a time that NESCAC has been absolutely loaded with talented teams: two NESCAC title games, the first NCAA appearance of this century, and the only two 20-win teams of this century for Colby. 

Will King, Sam Jefferson, Noah Tyson, Max Poulton, Matt Hannah, Jack Lawson, Dan Civiello, Marcos Montiel, Alex Dorion are all guys any NESCAC team would have gladly had during that five-year stretch.  And in 2020 Colby was a badly-timed Sam Jefferson injury away from a likely NESCAC title and maybe a deep NCAA run (as deep as COVID would have allowed at least).  And looking ahead, he had team pretty well set up for the next few years - only one senior and one junior in the top seven guys and a very strong FY class this year. 

Now, as SpringSt7 spoke of, there is likely no coaching staff in place during much of the summer recruiting season, and you have to worry a bit about attrition from current players, plus it's not clear returning players will be as good a fit for a new system, so it's likely that Colby will sacrifice a window to compete with a solid core of talent coming up. 

You would think football might be a cautionary tale for Colby.  By all accounts a ton was put into the program including a splashy, big name hire and a big focus on recruiting, and after a lot of hype, the team while decent hasn't been able to crack .500 under the new coach.  In basketball, is Colby really going to surpass as a program a Trinity team coming off a national title, a Wesleyan team coming off a final four, Tufts and Williams teams each with multiple Sweet 16 appearances in recent seasons, not to mention Middlebury, Amherst and Hamilton, all of whom have strong hoops traditions and the ability to recruit high-level players?  Barring some crazy change in how basketball players are evaluated by admissions (something any coach including Strahorn can benefit from), it's hard to see Colby jumping into consistent NESCAC let alone national contention.  So, what is the point of changing coaches then?   

AJ Rohosy commits to Stanford - wow! 

Final (so far as I can dig up) recruit list:

Amherst:
 
Sherron Woodberry, 6'3 G, Olathe West (KS)
Brandon Margolin, 6'5 W, Xaverian
Ryan Hempfling, 6'10 C, Blair Academy
KJ Neville, 6'3 PG, Bartlett (TN)

 
Bates:

Charlie Williams, 6'7 Kimball Union (NH #26)
Chris Camozzi, 6'4 F, Dexter School (MA #49)
Jamari Robinson 6'1 G, Belmont Hill (MA #47)
Theo Falkenhein, 5'10 PG, Columbia Academy (OH)
Christopher Bianco, 6'0 PG, St. Andrews RI


Bowdoin:
 
Benedek Maly, 6'6 G, Trinity-Pawling
Jules Varin, 6'4 G, Hotchkiss
Maximillion Cook, 6'3 PG, Oratory Prep (NJ)


Colby:

Ian Schnable, 6'7 F, Blake School (MN)
Theo Pow, 6'3 G, Kennebunk (ME #10)
Nick Mautone, 6'5 W, Hotchkiss


Conn College:
 
Will Phillips, 6'10 C, St. Joseph's Metuchen (NJ)
Cole Craffey, 6'2 G, Oliver Ames (MA)
Mike Dankert, 6'5 F/C, Bourne H.S. (MA)
Josiah Wright, 6'5 G, Mercersburg Academy (PA)
Rob Blandburg, 6'7 F, Phillips Exeter (N.H. #26)


Hamilton:

David Melson, 6'5 G, Cushing Academy (MA #46)
Olufemi Ogundiju, 6'9 C, Albany Academy
Evan O'Reilly, 6'3 G, Ridgewood (NJ)
 

Middlebury:

Devin Merker, 6'3 G, Pascack Valley (NJ)
Justin Fuerbacher, 6'5 F, Christian Brothers (NJ)
Donovan Lee, 6'1 G, The Newman School
Alex Gklaros-Stavropoulos, 6'11 C, St. Francis (CA)

 
Tufts:

Deacon Barratta, 6'6 W, Phoenixville (PA)
Ian Randall, 7'0 F, Hotchkiss (CT #43)
Ricardo Nieves, 6'4 G, Williston Northampton (MA #37)
Griffin Linstra, 6'5 G, Manasquan (NJ)


Trinity:

Patrick Mahoney, 6'2 G, Delbarton (NJ)
Jadon Holmes, 6'6 F, Brewster Academy (NH #24)
Kobe Closeil, 6'2 G, Gil St. Bernards (NJ)

 
Wesleyan:

Jalaan Watson, 5'9 G, Olathe North (KS) (first team all-state Kansas 6A)
Elijah Proctor-Moore, 6'7 W, St. Andrew's (Delaware)
Ian Plankey, 6'9 C, Holderness (NE #77, NH #17)


Williams:

Solomon Marshall, 5'10 PG, Phillips Andover
Khalil Carlson, 6'4 W, Darrow School
Ty Kuehl, 6'6 W, Parkway West (Missouri)
E.J. Sommers, 6'9 F/C, Roosevelt H.S. (Washington)
Wes Gudeman, 6'5 W, Morton (IL) (first team all state Illinois Class 3A)

Mary Washington and UChicago were already looking strong next year and this will only make both stronger (Roper the bigger get obviously, but Hammad is a very tough/physical dude who could benefit from a change of scenery and add depth to an already loaded team).

With NYU, Brandeis and CMU suffering huge losses, the UAA is looking like a three team race and I think UofC will be right there at the top with this addition, some strong incoming FYs, plus a lot of good young players returning.  Happy as a Maroon (grad school but still sorta counts) to see them on the rise!   

Updated full list ....

Transferring from D3:

Toby Harris, Brandeis to Iona (D1)
Owen Varnado, Calvin to Tennessee Tech (D1)
Christian Green, Trinity (TX) to Stephen F. Austin (D1)
Justin Allen, Carnegie Mellon to UW-Green Bay (D1)
EJ Matthews-Spratley, Stockton to Millersville (D2)
Livingston Cross, Penn College to  Johnson U (D2)
Hampton Sanders, NYU to Columbia (D1)
Payton Thomsen, Bethel to Bemidji State (D2)
AJ Rohosy, CMS to Stanford (D1)
Carter Reese, Ohio Northern to Ohio (D1)
Tyrese Rho, Salem State to Point Park (D2)
Hamilton Campbell, HSC to Charleston-WV (D2)
Sunny Parker, McMurray to Clarke (NAIA)
Jadi Cunningham, Ohio Northern to Walsh (D2)


In the transfer portal (top-tier transfers, the majority will end up on scholarship):

Tye-Rell Monroe, St. Elizabeth's (one year, JUCO exception)
Charlie Randall, Amherst (two years)
Eli Beard, MHB (one year)
Brandon Kulakowski, Fredonia State (one year)
Kenneth Rogers, Westfield State (three years)
Drew Moore, Trine (one year)
Antonio Redding Jr., Delaware Valley (one year)
Nate Tucker, Trine (one year)


In the transfer portal (the rest)

Darrius Bolden, Stevens Point (one year, JUCO exception)
Charles Nelson, Fontbonne (one year)
Nas Johnson, Arcadia (one year)
Isaiah Amato, Whitman (I believe one year of eligibility as a grad transfer)
Khai Champion, Tufts (one year - maybe two?)
Moustapha Diop, Randolph (two years)
DeAndre Vortes, Illinois Tech (one year)
Joshua Iguade, Illinois Tech (two years)
Andre Treadwell, Lewis and Clark (one year)
Nate Jacobson, Cornell College (one year)
Colt Donley, Covenant (two years)
Tyler Bergmans, Vermont-Lyndon (three years)
Jacob Morgan, Goucher (two years)
Anthony Davis, Knox (two years)
Jakorri Arnold, Warren Wilson (three years)
Dakota Sellers, Mary Washington (three years)
Matthew Puodziukaitis, Saint Vincent (three years)
Justin Chapman, Ohio Northern (two years)
Cayden Jacoby, Ohio Northern (two years)
Grant Paetzold, Eau Clair (two years)
Cade Hogan, ETBU (three years)
Elijah Thomas, Carthage (one year)
KJ Williams, Carthage (one year)
Lance Nelson, North Park (one year)
Will Little, Bryn Athyn (one year)
Joevonn Mccottry, Aurora (one year)
Trenton Connolly, Earlham (three years)
Felipe Carter, Hunter (two years)
Troy Santos, Hartford (three years)
Ken Walker, Earlham (two years)
Connor Smith, Earlham (two years)
Kaosi Chijioke, Hartford (two years)
Vondre Chase, Emmanuel (one year)
Cooper Haberern, Susquehanna (one year)
Steven Cordero, Keene State (two years)
Lazzaro Ford, Warren Wilson (three years)
Frankie Idlett, Dean (two  years)
Elijah Harden, Heidelberg (one year)
TJ Gardner, North Park (one year)

Playing a fifth year at current school:

Luke Chicone, John Carroll (injury redshirt)
Omari DeVeaux, VWU (injury)
Peter Lash, NWU (one year)


Seniors / grad students of note with (I believe) remaining eligibility:

Malcolm Newman, Drew (injury)
Antuan Nesbit, Carthage (listed on roster but did not play this year, not sure why)
Zach Rosenthal, Roanoke (injury)


Transferring to D3:

Eli Ehrke - Sioux Falls (D2) to Gustavus Adolphus
Kenji Scales - Sioux Falls (D2) to UWEC
Will Boser - Concordia St. Paul (D2) to UWEC
Tyler Orr - Winona State (D2) to Stevens Point
Casen Lawrence - Truman State (D2) to IWU
Brady Ruffles - Air Force (D1) to IWU
Ethan Edwards - Brandeis to CWRU
Xavier Lewis - UMary (D2) to UWEC
Jacob Butler - River Falls to Lacrosse
Nick Roper - IWU to UChicago
Hasan Hammad - CNU to Mary Washington
Shane Regan - Wesleyan to UChicago
DJ Kourtney - Kalamazoo to Brandeis
Darren Rubin - Denison to NYU
Eli Bradley - North Dakota State (D1) to Southwestern

Wow not sure what the deal is with Strahorn but I think he'd been doing a very good job.  Central Maine is not an easy place to recruit to for hoops even with the great facilities, and NESCAC has been crazy competitive over the past five years led by Trinity but also Wesleyan, Williams, Tufts and Hamilton making a lot of noise nationally.  And yet over the past five years he's had two Nescac title game appearances, two ROTYs, and won an NCAA game.  That's a better resume than half the coaches in the league at least.   And his last two recruiting classes have played very well so the future seems bright there.  Very weird, unless something behind the scenes is going on.

Not sure what happened with the NESCAC Ravens, but Thomas Perry is now on the Steelers' tryout minicamp roster:

https://steelersdepot.com/2025/05/steelers-release-2025-rookie-minicamp-roster/

The combination of: the declining domestic application pool (a very steady and significant drop over the next two decades in the pool of 18-year-olds, which is unlikely to ever recover absent massive immigration into this country); likely cuts to federal financial aid and student loan programs making college effectively more expensive; a likely recession looming which will destroy middle-class incomes; massive cuts to federal research dollars flowing to colleges (most significant at the D3 schools with grad programs); a likely significant decline in international student applications (why would you want to come to an American college if there is a very real risk of being sent to prison); too many colleges and universities which have endlessly expanded their administrations and physical plants (both extremely expensive to maintain and difficult to quickly reduce); and endowments taking a hit from the anemic stock market is going to make today's financial pressures for colleges, especially smaller and generally more expensive D3 private colleges, look like small potatoes in just a few years from now. 

Within a decade the huge pressure on enrollment and endowments will cause a slew of D3 schools to close, at a far more rapid pace than we've already been seeing, and others to cut back significantly in various ways, which could include some of the less popular and/or more costly athletic programs.  Pretty much everyone including some schools that seem safe thanks to massive endowments are going to have to change their approach to how they spend money - not entirely a bad thing given the endless and often needless inflation in operating costs, but certainly a lot of worthy parts of campus life will suffer massively as well. 

D1 schools face an entirely different set of obstacles as there have to be a lot that simply won't be able to compete in the NIL era and may decide like St. Peter's that D1 athletics simply aren't worth the cost.  So maybe as some D3 schools close some D1s drop down to compensate ...