It took awhile for NESCAC offenses to get going, but wow, what a week for skill guys:

Donte Kelly:  12-140 with a TD and a seven-yard run
Carter Jung: 8-181 with two TDs plus a 54 yard kick-off return
Zach Falls: 5-194 with two TDs
Connor McClellan: 18-163 plus three catches for eight yards

... and none of those guys will even be OPOTW, given Lynskey's monstrous game against Tufts (32-221 and four TDs).

And of that group, only Jung is a senior.  Along with Nolan O'Brien, who had a quiet day with Trinity able to spread the wealth in its dominating win, Jon Oris, and Mike Ahonen, that's a very strong group of skill guys already locked into at least one of the all-conference teams.   

After some uncertainty through the first two weeks, suddenly we have a strong crop of young QBs emerging.  Fitzsimmons, Marek Hill, Johansen, and Carroll have all seized the reigns and seem to have locked up the QB positions for at least this year and next at their respective schools.  Toss in mainstays Kurzum and Moran, and there are six legit candidates for all-conference at QB, depending on how the second half of the season turns out.

Another early season take that didn't age well: NESCAC would be wildly unpredictable this year.  Now it seems like we've evolved into three very clear tiers in the league: the four contenders, the mediocre middle tier (which can compete with the top four on a good day), and then two teams who pretty much everyone is beating up on.  Since the four contenders play exclusively each other in the final two weeks, the title race is almost a lock to go down to the wire. 

From an Eph perspective, Lynskey's massive game is definitely concerning after what a TB with a very similar style did to Williams this week.  The Eph front seven has been generally strong all year and will need to reestablish its usual physical style to contain Lynskey.  Bates, despite some tough personnel losses, has a fair shot at going over .500 this year given that it ends the season with Bowdoin and Hamilton, both games it will be favored in. 

The usual heart-stopping finish for Williams-Midd.  Or at least, when it's not a blow-out, it always goes down to the very last play.

The two teams were very even all day as reflected by total yardage and most other stats. The difference for the Ephs was Zach Falls who has developed into such a huge weapon, today, 5-194 with two LONG TD catches. I suspect every defense going forward is going to shade a deep safety behind Falls because once he catches it in stride, he's gone, and the rest of the healthy Eph receivers are totally unproven.  Midd did a great job on Johansen today, he had very little room to run at all and for the first time all year struggled running the ball, and other than his two huge bombs to Falls, he was either a bit off, or receivers couldn't bring the ball in.  The Ephs tailbacks were excellent in the second half, especially Matt Bott, whose speed was an asset against a tiring defense.

It wasn't a thing of beauty for the Eph defense as they seemingly got chewed up all day through both air and, uncharacteristically, on the ground, but to their credit there was a lot of bend-but-don't break, none more so than on the clutch game-ending goal line stand.  The usual suspects led the defense, Moore, Acheson, Cotton, Gale, Mangini and Papadopolous, with Moore having the biggest game.  The Ephs' young secondary hung in there the best they could and did make some big plays.  The pass rush wasn't quite where it needed to be and they will not be happy with the running defense at all.

Williams has made it to 4-1 despite just an unbelievable slew of injuries.  Holden Gehring, obviously a huge player, has not been seen in awhile, nor has Jimmy Montesano, who is the biggest TE weapon in the conference.  His presence was particularly missed in the red zone, as the Ephs had only 3 points on two second-half possessions within the 10 yard line, and that's where Montesano was just about an automatic seven.  On offense, the receiving group is especially stretched thin without Gehring, Montesano, and Stahelski, the leading returning receiver who has been out for the season.  The DB core is also down two guys who I think would be starting right now but for injuries (one again a season-long injury). But the three FY DBs will hopefully benefit from being called into service a bit early.     

Credit to Midd, who played Williams dead-even (probably even a slight edge over all) on the line of scrimmage, and was victimized by those two huge passing plays.  Conor McClellan has killed the Ephs two years in a row, he just ran through and over guys, very impressive, physical running, he might be the best TB in the league right now.  Whenever he took a breather, it was a dramatic absence on the field.  Moran had a very strong game mixing it up to different receivers and honestly I can't figure out how Midd only scored 17 in this one.  A missed (long) FG and falling short within the 10 on the last possession didn't help, as well as an INT in the red zone.  I was frankly stunned Middlebury didn't go for it on 4th and 4th right around midfield with about 2:40 left on the clock.  The way they were moving the ball, seemed like a strange decision to punt it there, and give it back to a team which was fully capable of running out the clock.  But, it ALMOST paid off for them in the end.

Williams, Wesleyan, Trinity and Amherst should really be a war for the league title in those last three weeks of the season, although right now, Trinity seems to get more dominant with each passing week.   If Trinity played Colby again right now, they probably are favored by at least three TDs. 

Yeah, I don't think ANYONE had Williams-Wesleyan as the game of the year in NESCAC, but the winner (if there is a winner) is the Little 3 champion and is in great shape for the number one seed in the NESCAC tourney.  Both (along with Tufts) are already locks for the NCAA tourney I'd have to think.  If Williams wins, they are in particularly good shape, since they'd have the tie-breaker over Tufts, Bates and Wesleyan.  Wesleyan has certainly been a surprise, but they seem to be earning dividends from their massive FY class, as four FYs have started at least a few games each, including a FY defender who has played every minute of the season. 

On their current impressive streak of four wins and a tie during five straight conference games, they have been remarkably efficient - they have only 42 shots, 16 of them on goal, during those five games, but have scored 9 goals.  By way of comparison, in its last THREE games, Amherst has taken 41 shots, put 14 of them on goal, but only scored 2 goals.     

Wesleyan has a lot of iron men on the squad - vs. Amherst, they played only three subs, only one of whom played big minutes.  The GK and defensive unit including defensive midfielders seem to basically never sit out.  It will be interesting to see if a well-rested Williams squad with its waves of subs can wear them down over the course of the game, but the relatively short bench doesn't seem to be hurting the Cards at all, as they won the second half in each of their last five games! 

Greek, is Overway (especially coming off a year's injury absence) > than Egekeze + Varnado?  I'm not sure, probably about a wash.  He's certainly enough for Calvin to be a top 25 team, no doubt! 

Given the probable lack of a consensus number two, I imagine Trinity will have one of the highest-ever margins over whoever number two is (Emory, UChicago, Redlands, Lacrosse all will likely get some votes, at least, along with maybe some others). 

With those rating, NESCAC is very likely a lock for at least seven teams in the tourney and could end up with as many as nine, especially with Conn and Middlebury talented enough to win some super-high NPI games down the stretch that would massively boost their ratings. Crazy. Outside of Trinity, basically anything can happen in any game between the other ten teams in the league. 

Williams is clearly in very good shape as its three ties are all against extremely strong teams (number four Wheaton, Bowdoin, and Amherst) and they have big wins against Tufts, Bates and Hamilton.  Wesleyan is a huge game on Saturday certainly. 

There has been a lot of disparagement of the Ephs' talent level by certain posters on this board, and clearly unfairly so.  Williams doesn't dominate possession in most games, it's true, but the success has come from the (1) typically stout back line (Greer, Caires, and Labonski are big, tough and all likely to be all-league players, and Greer should be the NESCAC ROTY, and those three plus 6'4 FY Jake Farmer and subs Ma and Ross will all be back next year as well) that concedes very few clean looks on goal (2) excellent GK play from the big, athletic young duo of Aleix Anglada (another contender for ROTY and very likely a future all-league keeper) backed capably by Kai Darrell, and (3) a very opportunistic quick-strike offense that can capitalize on opponent mistakes especially when exhausted by Williams' waves of pressing players.

The big difference between this year's Williams team vs. prior iterations is the sheer number of capable finishers up front.  Lorcan Mitchell and JJ Ruehlmann are an excellent target-striker duo who should only get more efficient as they mature, and I think the Ephs will eventually deploy them more together as a pair.  Alex Bethencourt is great both as a set-up man and finishing plays.  And Kirkman and Coehlho (the latter of whom has yet to score this season but has proven capable in the past) are also very opportunistic finishers. 

I think Hamilton will manage to score a few TD's on Trinity's defense.  Hamilton can throw the ball and Trinity hasn't played close to an elite passing team; Williams does not qualify as such and receivers were often wide open against the Bants (granted, Trinity was stacking the line to stop the run).  But Trinity will score with ease on Hamilton so 39.5 on the other side of the ledger sounds about right there.  I LOVE Amherst -10 against Bowdoin. Amherst QB and TBs will break a lot of big runs in that game.

I think Midd's strength passing the ball could give trouble to a banged-up Eph secondary, although the strong Eph pass rush will help compensate.  I think Williams should be favored in that game but eight feels a bit high as well. Agree that Tufts' offense putting up 29 on anyone right now feels like a stretch. 

 

Solid win for the Ephs today as the Ephs went up 35-3 before taking Johansen (dominant once again) and Oris (huge game, TBs eyes must light up when they see Bowdoin out there) and some other starters out in the fourth quarter.  This is the worst Bowdoin team in awhile as the Ephs dominated the line of scrimmage on both ends of the field. I think Bates may be their only chance for a win and 0-9 may be in the cards.

For Williams, the injury concerns at WR/TE and DB are really starting to mount.  Hopefully Raymond was being extra cautious today and he gets a few guys back soon, as it really felt like he was auditioning guys at DB and WR, with loads of players who had never or barely ever seen the field cycling in and out from the first possession on.  Jimmy Montesano and Holden Gehring both missed the game and both are critical players down the stretch of the season for Williams, and that's on top of several season-long injuries hampering the depth at receiver and DB.  Williams played four first year DBs today (never all at once but usually two on the field together) and they acquitted themselves pretty well, but it would be nice to see some of the injured vets return.

As for WR, it's getting a bit crazy, again with injuries taking a toll.  Zach Falls is clearly turning into a star, his size/speed combo is extremely rare in NESCAC, but the Ephs have cycled through seemingly a zillion guys at the other receiver spots, including two guys who are primarily DBs and now THREE converted QBs.  Today Henry Machnik saw his first action at WR and looked like he could be a weapon there as he seemed to be perpetually open.  Mozawal even played some at WR before coming in for his first collegiate action at QB, where he had a tough go of it but at least got some valuable reps and got a taste of the speed of the college game. Another massive FY target, Davin Bailey, also had his first career catch.

Oh, and by the way, as per the usual (this has been going on for years), for some reason I can't fathom, Williams refuses to update its starting lineup, as six listed starters were not in fact starting and several didn't even suit up. Very weird.

The Williams defensive front continues to dominate, super sophs Luke Mangini, Will Gale, Ben Yedid and Zakkai Moore were everywhere and all four are making cases for all-league consideration (last year's fifth FY starter, DB Andrew Kreakie, has yet to see action this year and is presumably injured).  Despite three INTs today, the Eph secondary is more concerning especially coming up against Middlebury which always hurts you with the passing game.  Would be great to get Gehring back for that one but I have no idea how serious his injury is.  If not, hopefully Raymond can settle on a DB rotation after getting a long look at a lot of different options today. 

As for Bowdoin, they just got blown off the ball repeatedly on both sides of the ball.  Credit to Peter Macauley who was TOUGH out there, he got hit very, very hard repeatedly and hung in there and toughed it out with big plays both with his arm and his legs. A lot of his stats came late against the second-team defense, but still, I thought he played very well overall considering he was running for his life and took some vicious hits. 

I think you kind of have to throw week one's results out as a lot of teams were figuring out who they are.  Once you do that, you have a pretty clear top four of Trinity, Wesleyan, Williams, and Amherst pretty closely grouped (I'd say in that order, right now), a middle tier of Tufts, Midd and Colby, and Bates, Hamilton and Bowdoin bringing up the rear (although Colby is teetering on the edge of that bottom tier as well).  Michael Berlutti has taken a lot of flack here, but man, Tufts sure seems to miss him, trying three QBs already this year after four years of Berlutti controlling the offense effectively.  As Amherst and Williams can testify this year, having a legit QB (especially a two-way threat) makes all the difference in the world. With Trinity/Williams/Amherst/Wes mostly playing each other in the final few weeks of the season, this NESCAC season should go right down to the wire. 

On Catholic's pre-season roster, Chris Rubayo, a 6'9 center who was a regularly rotation player for Lafayette.  I'd imagine he will be a big impact player for what should be a very good Catholic team, alongside Ntiamoah, Herbert and Ruoff, who had big games in Catholic's surprising NCAA run last year, all while lacking a true center. 

Looking at the national landscape: Trinity is going to be one of the heaviest favorites D3 hoops has seen in recent years, right up there with some of the utterly dominant Randolph-Macon teams. 

Trinity has gone 60-5 over two years, with two final fours, is the defending champion, and loses only its fifth-leading scorer from its top seven (an important player in Dorion, but someone they have strong replacements for as Berry and Ayles should both be ready to roughly double their respective minutes). 

Look at the rest of the top 12 and barring massive additions, they all seem likely to slip a bit further behind Trinity's level (or in some cases, slip dramatically).  This assumes everyone eligible even returns:

NYU - loses its top 7 guys!
Wesleyan - loses two all-American guards
Wash U - loses its top two scorers, both of whom have been all-region players
Emory - loses its center who was a dominant presence on defense and the glass, plus his top backup. Still, they bring back a ton and will be in the top five for sure.
Lacrosse - brings back its top four but loses a ton of depth (5-8 in the rotation)
Redlands - loses its second and fourth leading scorer, one of whom was the assist leader as well.
Lutheran - loses its entire starting five
Platteville - loses a ton including the national POTY
IWU - loses its top three scorers and four of its top five rebounders
Hampden Sydney - loses a lot including a first team all-American
Catholic - loses its 1st and 3rd leading scorers.

Meanwhile, with the COVID era basically over, there seem to fewer super-teams loaded with transfers out there, UChicago being the big exception. 

As you go further down the standings, you get some teams like Tufts and RMC that return virtually everyone and should challenge, but they obviously have a lot of ground to make up on Trinity, which does not figure to slip in level at all.  The toughest part for Trinity will be having to face everyone's best game as the defending champs and likely unanimous pre-season number one team, but they have such a bulldog mentality that I don't see them coasting or losing their edge just because they already got a 'chip.  Surely they will be motivated to be the first NESCAC back-to-back winner. 

My guess on what a pre-season top 10 is likely to look like: 1. Trinity, 2. UChicago, 3. Emory, 4. Lacrosse, 5. Redlands, 6. Tufts, 7. RMC, 8. Wash U, 9. Catholic, 10. CNU.  Mary Washington might be a dark horse as they came on late. 

I don't think anyone else in NESCAC looks likely to be a top-25 team right now, Wesleyan might squeeze in at the back due to being a returning Final Four team, but the two guys they lost carried such a heavy load. But surely as the season goes along we will see some other NESCAC representation.   

Thanks lumbercat.  That's bad luck for Pierotti, but glad he will be back next year.  With him (and maybe Beltran?) coming back next year plus a lot of young guys getting opportunities to step up this year, I do think the future for Bates continues to be bright.  And Lynskey is too good to be held in check the entire season, especially as the run defenses get softer down the stretch. 

It seems like a bit of a tough year ahead for the Maine teams.  Colby looked great in week one but I think they just caught Trinity at the best possible time, before they figured out who their QB was and how to play to their personnel's strengths: no one can really match up with O'Brien anywhere on the field, just too fast and shifty, so just get him the ball as much as possible in a variety of different ways, and then a huge dose of both Tossone and DiNapoli both running the ball and as receivers out of the backfield. Hooper has a lot of speed and is a developing deep threat to keep defenses honest, but getting the ball quickly to O'Brien, Tossone and DiNapoli space to run will be their bread and butter I suspect, and Carroll throws a very accurate short ball (which also takes pressure off the offensive line to protect). 

And it looks like a very rough year ahead for Bowdoin (just lost way too much high-level talent from last year's team without obvious replacements) and likely Bates.  I still think Bates is on an upwards trajectory, but they have simply lost too much talent on offense to be in the mix for a top half of the league spot this year as many of  us thought possible - Bosselait, Moore, and now maybe Beltran all gone from the QB / flex position; the two best linemen from last year, Simplico and Pierotti (who took his name out of transfer portal I thought but nevertheless did not return) were big losses too.  Losing Moore and Pierotti unexpectedly as major pieces before the season even began really hurt, which will only be compounded if Beltran has to miss significant time too.  Ryan Lynskey has gone from 5.7 ypg last year to 3.0 ypg this year.  He has faced three of the better rush defenses in the league, so that 3.0 number will surely move up, but clearly without the same type of explosive offensive talent around him, every defense will be able to key on him even more. 

As for the six 2-1 teams, I think they will (mostly, Colby is good enough to sneak out another win against one of them) beat up on the bottom four going forward, and anytime they play one another, anything is possible. 

Early season POTY rankings:

OPOTY: 1. Owen Johansen (leading the league in rushing yards, ypc, and passing efficiency, not bad, and seems to get better each week); 2. Nolan O'Brien (most explosive offensive weapon in the league by far); 3. Luke Kurzum (he's been great despite a terrible offensive line and putrid defense); 4. Marek Hill; 5. Connor McClellan.  Others to watch: Donte Kelly, Ryan Linskey. 

DPOTY: too hard to rank yet as lots of guys seem closely grouped, but top players to watch include Luke Harmon, Carson Skotak, Dylan Connors, Ben Yedid, Shane Mosia, and Lincoln Moore.

OROTY: Donte Kelly is the runaway early leader
DROTY: Connor Acheson is the runaway early leader

Sounds like an absolutely crazy game!  Both teams will be happy at least getting a result, and the Ephs remain the last NESCAC unbeaten.  Crazy fact - Bowdoin has scored five goals against Williams the last four years, all of them by Tyler Huck.  The Ephs will be delighted to see him graduate. 

Of concern for Williams is star FY defender Zach Greer, who has been a rock in back all season, missed this game after coming out at the end against Colby. Not sure what the story is.  Top defensive sub Atticus Ross has also missed the last few games. Hopefully the Ephs heal up a bit on the backline over the next week. 

Uggggh and Johansen (who had been so, so good all day long) fumbled trying to make an extra-effort play on the first play of OT.  Very tough break and Trinity wins it on the next play.  Absolute heart-breaker for the Ephs who had plenty of chances to win this one and were hurt by a few big plays down the field, really felt like they were in control in the second half but to Trinity's credit they kept coming with big plays by their speedy WRs, and Trinity's LBs did an awesome job bottling up the the Ephs' running attack, there were almost no YACs all game long. 

One big concern for Williams is that Holden Gehring missed most of the game, not sure what the issue is, but it's like losing two guys for the Ephs and the pass coverage downfield definitely suffered. 

Both QBs answered a lot of questions - Johansen can clearly launch it and is a true dual-threat, and Carroll was absolutely on target all game and certainly cemented himself as a quality starter for Trinity.

Tough, tough loss to swallow for Williams but the good news is they are in a massive tie for first and certainly look like a team who can compete for the title along with virtually the entire league at this point (minus Hamilton and the Maine teams, I'd say). 

On a positive note I predicted that Falls would have a huge game at some point this year and he already made that prediction come true, he and Montesano (the best TE in the league by a WIDE margin) are going to really do some damage down the field over the course of their careers, as both are only sophs. 

Just an absolute instant classic in Williamstown and whoever loses this game will be despondent, but both teams have looked really good today.  A very cleanly-played game, lots of huge plays by guys on both teams in all three phases, both teams really came to play.  Stellar play by both quarterbacks.  Nolan O'Brien is so damn slippery and is just killing Williams, but going the other way, Montesano and Falls have killed Trinity with their size.  Feels right that it's going to OT and feels like one of those three guys will make the winning play.  .