Wow, surprised re Civello.  Definitely would be a blow but of course easier to make that call when the coach who recruited you is fired.  Will he interesting to see what sort of offers he gets - he easily has D1 size and skills at the 5, but not the typical D1 athleticism.  But I assume he has reason to believe there will be Patriot / Ivy type interest if he's putting his name out there.

Stlawus makes a good point.  I'd rather a system that lets more teams in (fairly I think, these are clearly five of the best 64 teams nationally) vs one that ensures geographic dispersion. 

Agreed, absolutely brutal draw for sure in that that NESCAC-heavy bracket.  Trinity/Redlands/Tufts/Wesleyan is a stacked potential sectional.  Redlands is not easy to play and even if Trinity survives that (and I think they would because they have so many good ball-handlers and can get it up the floor in a hurry) it's an exhausting game to play before a brutal rivalry game the next day.  Plus Hood, NYU, and Babson as tough programs with a lot of tourney experience in that bracket too.  I do think all three NESCAC teams have a very good chance of advancing to a near-repeat of the NESCAC conference tourney. But a shame that Wesleyan wasn't sent to the other side of the bracket. 

Surprised they didn't swing one of those teams to the Emory bracket where there are plenty of New England teams.  Emory could have a glide path to the Final Four - IWU is very banged up and unclear if their star will be available, not totally sold on Montclair, NJAC hasn't been loaded in awhile, and Endicott isn't going to compete with Emory if they get that far, although Roanoke is definitely a tough second round match-up to get past. 

I think Bates has a solid chance of making the Sweet 16.  Amherst-WPI should be a good game, Mary Washington in the second round is tough for Amherst is they can survive that one. 

I'll go with Trinity over Wesleyan, Chicago over Mary Washington, Emory over ?, RMC over Wash U, with Emory beating Trinity for the national title.  I'm sure I'll be wildly wrong as usual! 

Just looking at Williams next year, it will be really interesting what happens at the skill positions, where there is for the first time in a long time loads of talent, depth and versatility, but some positional question marks:

Owen Johansen is a lock to be the starting QB and is maybe the best overall athlete in all of NESCAC, certainly top five.  He is SO effective as a runner but also the Ephs need to keep him upright as obviously they are a different team without him, and his passing really evolved over the course of the season as well, so I suspect he will look to run more judiciously early in the season. Johansen was hurt as a FY so if the Ephs are lucky, maybe he sticks around for another season after this one, though could also imagine him trying to get a D1 opportunity. 

Former starting QB Owen McHugh will be back from injury and likewise has two years of football eligibility if he chooses to use them.  He is a obviously a very high-level back-up who can play some downs as a wild-cat QB but would also fare well I suspect at receiver, where two more converted QBs are likewise in the picture.  Henry Machnik looked very good at receiver after making the switch mid-season and I suspect he moves to that position full-time, at least for this season.  Mikey McGrath also saw some snaps there before getting injured and gives more depth at WR this year.  Obviously Zach Falls is the Ephs' main target and was pretty much unstoppable all year, with the potential to get even better as an upperclassman.  And there is still Holden Gehring as an option but he's so important as a CB and may also be a primary returner so seems like it's more risk than needed to play him as a WR again as well, given all the other options Williams has at the position. 

Jimmy Montesano was also having a huge year at TE before getting hurt and his return to the lineup will be huge for the Ephs as he's the most talented TE in the conference.  The rest of that unit is a bit of a mystery, a slew of FYs coming in with TE experience so perhaps one breaks in early, so the Ephs need to keep Montesano healthy. 

In terms of QB depth, Drew Renzella is another capable back-up returning for one more year.  Unfortunately, Mustafa Mozawalla, who looked like the QB of the future, has transferred to NYU so I gather has quit football altogether.  The Ephs are bringing in three H.S. QBs this year (one of them looks more like a TB in college however and another looks like a potential ATH type as well) so maybe one of them can take up that mantel for whenever Johansen and McHugh have both departed.  Ideally, at least one of Johansen or McHugh sticks around for a fifth year. 

The offense does lose its all-NESCAC starting backfield and their physicality will be tough to replace, Jon Oris as a powerful inside runner despite his size and Riley O'Connell as a versatile and extremely physical fullback.  They also lose some depth at the TE position.  Matt Bott is sure to get a lot of carries, he showed a good amount of big-play potential as a sophomore, and maybe Jon Marvan, who was a big-time H.S. player who had to recover from a devastating injury, will be ready to share the load as the more physical back as a senior.  Or perhaps Marvan makes the move to FB and replaces O'Connell there, he's the right size certainly.  If not Marvan, the Ephs will always find one of their best overall athletes to move to that FB/HB role.  TB is also spot where I suspect we will see some FYs get an opportunity. 

The Ephs have six OL with starting experience returning so that should definitely be a position of strength as well.  Offensively, Williams just needs to stay healthy and they could put up massive numbers all year.  The defense is a much bigger question mark. 

Amherst - 9 losses in three years, one loss in third round, one national title, one blowout loss to their rival in the Final Four (has to count against them a bit).

Trinity - a title, a Final Four, the top overall seed this year following a road blowout of rival in Nescac title game, so far seven total losses in three years.  If they make it to the Sweet 16 or better it's a wrap.  But fair to say they need to survive the first few rounds this year. 

Ummm D3bball no one else on Wesleyan did anything!  He was by far their best player today. Aren't you the guy who said Pohlman should be POTY?  No shade on him, Trinity's guards play suffocating D, but he had 4 points, zero boards and seven TOs today.  Wolinski was the only guy who could do anything today.

Yeah kinda felt like Trinity was saving this extra gear.  They are now fully in tourney mode and will be very tough to beat.  They can raise their defense up to such an intense level that it wears you down inevitably. I think with three Nescac titles, and what they've done and will likely keep doing in the NCAAs, they've locked down best Nescac team ever and are firmly in the D3 pantheon.  Especially if they reach a third straight final four, which is very, very rare.

Trinity has to be happy being down only one.  They've been awful in the half court mostly one on one stuff and Wesleyan moving the ball much better.  Vetter has been invisible, which I doubt continues for the whole game. But they've scrapped for second chance points and as always they kill you in transition, you just can't turn the ball over with telegraphed passes against them, they murder you on those. 

Wolinski is doing it all for Wesleyan, from deep, off the bounce, back-door, even drew a dubious foul on a three point shot with some nice acting. He's so skilled. Trinity doing a solid job on Pohlman. Lyttle having an elite championship weekend. 

Two potential bid thieves choked up late double digit leads last night, making things rosier for Amherst and the other last few in (WPI and Otterbein). Otterbein is currently just a smidge below Amherst.  If that sticks, and I think it very likely does (if Wesleyan and Westfield both lose perhaps not?), then Amherst is likely safe unless the bid thieves go 3/5. 

Yeah that deep Vetter shot was a back-breaker for Tufts, he does rise to the occasion every time they really need him.  That game was pretty choppy overall. 

Tufts certainly missed Gyimesi, a different team with him, but what a heroic two-way effort from Bernstein to keep Tufts in that game, he was everywhere.  Hope he can come back for the tourney. 

Not sure what the Morakis issue is but his minutes limitation definitely hurts Tufts offensively.  Nieves is going to be all-league for sure in time.

Montclair State and Otterbein go down (Hood survives in OT the box score had an issue I guess) and now Amherst really has to root for no more big upsets of lock teams. 

Interesting Greek.  I assume Elmhurst can't pass Amherst with a loss.  Meaning IWU is another team they will be rooting for, because IWU is safe. 

Otterbein / Hopkins / Roanoke I imagine could all conceivably slip back behind Amherst with losses too, I'm not sure?  So maybe Heidelberg and Gettysburg wins wouldn't help knock Amherst out (but would knock out teams right behind them)

Bad news re Gyimesi. Expected back for NCAA games?  Would be awful to miss the post-season after a tremendous career. 

Agree with Greek re: Wesleyan. They had some tough early losses but playing a lot of close games in a tough non conference schedule served them well as once again they were tough in close games in league play.  I don't think anyone predicted just how well Wolinski and Pohlman would step in for those departing guards, especially Wolinski. Reilly really has done a great job of recruiting behind stars and working guys into back of rotation early.  Watson and Plankey look like the next guys to step up next year, both could be very high level players and soon.  Maybe their third FY too who was highly regarded but I assume was injured this season. With all Trinity and Tufts lose I see Wesleyan as next year's league favorite. 

Turning to now, F&M, WPI, and CMS go down last night and I think all three have Pool Cs locked down, making the bubble tighter.

Amherst and other vulnerable teams will be rooting against Gettysburg, Rhodes, Wheaton (MA), TCNJ, St. John's (MN), WNEC, Chapman, Heidelberg, Centenary and York(PA) tomorrow. I think if around half those games end up as upsets Amherst and anyone behind them is likely out of luck, as I suspect both Elmhurst and Roanoke sneaked ahead of Amherst with wins last night plus bolstering their schedules in a major way tonight. 

Whoops D3bball I corrected my earlier posts.  I rarely do picks but I'll take Trinity over Wesleyan in the final.  I know Tufts finally broke through against Trinity but I still think Trinity is just a bad match-up especially on a neutral court where it's not an emotional senior day for a pumped up Tufts team (with probably a lot of Trinity fans there as it's right down the road) which had a few guys having career days. Bernstein hurts so many teams especially defending the rim, but is a non-factor playing Trinity.  Barring a throw-back scoring game from Morakis, I like Trinity by ten.  And Wesleyan is a bit too much for Bates. 

Trinity-Wesleyan should continue to be an awesome, closely-contested match-up as it has been for a few years now if that is the final, another true toss-up.  In the first game it took Pohlman being uncharacteristically hot, a huge day from Waatson, and off days from Okorougo and nothing from Berry for Wesleyan to juuuust barely squeeze it out.  I think Lazarre is all over Wolinski in this one and they make someone else on Wes beat them.  Wesleyan's big guys are a bit too plodding to take advantage of their size edge, Trinity plays so well against bigs like that.  Berry seems to have really found something since that Wesleyan game and I think a much bigger game from him is the difference as Trinity eeks out yet another title.

All three of these teams could make deep NCAA runs (Bates could win a game or two as well) but I still think only Trinity has what it takes to potentially take home a title.   

You guys do really impressive work, wow! 

Interesting Greek.  Checking in on NESCAC teams headed to the NCAAs:

Trinity is two overall in NPI, already a lock to host for the first two rounds and I think one more win vs. Tufts locks them in as a top seed hosting throughout the tourney (and honestly probably already a lock for a top seed no matter what).

Tufts is number 7 and Wesleyan number 8.  I think both are probably locks to host a pod at this point regardless of what happens tomorrow.  Two wins this weekend for either could conceivably put either in a position to host until the final four, but I think a few teams ahead of them would have to lose for that to happen.  Still, NESCAC having three first-round hosts (almost surely) is impressive.

Bates is at 26 overall, currently at large number 12.  I don't think a loss to Wesleyan hurts them very much at all and they should be a lock to make the tourney.  Probably would need two wins this weekend to potentially host a pod, even that probably does not do it.  But have a good shot at being a "2" seed in a pod.   It will be only Bates' second tournament, after making it all the way to the Sweet 16 in 2015.  By the way, is anyone better at hiring coaches than Bates?  Jeff Brown, Joe Reilly, Jon Furbush, not too shabby for the last three head coaches!  And going way pack, future Williams AD Bob Peck. 

Amherst is the one who has to worry at 32 overall, at large number 17 (Greek I think they are 17, not 18?).  The winners of Carthage-Elmhurst and Virginia Wesleyan-Roanoke almost surely move ahead of them.  So that puts them down to 19, getting very close to the bubble.  Still in pretty good shape for now, but if several of St. Thomas / Montclair / Endicott / Hood / Trinity(TX) / Gustavus get knocked off in their conference tournaments (any teams who win those leagues would be bid thiefs), then it starts getting more and more dicey. 

Speaking of the Bates Sweet 16 run, it inspired me to do a bit of research - every NESCAC team has made at least one Sweet 16 (since 1994, when they first became eligible) other than Colby and Bowdoin (both of whom have made it to the second round).   Colby certainly would have made a few in the Matt Hancock era but alas not yet eligible for the tourney.  Not too shabby! 

(Whoops edited after explained that I had tomorrow's match-ups wrong!)