Having watched two Middlebury-Swarthmore matchups in person & the MIT-Middlebury Sweet 16. I offer this.

MIT has the shooting to beat Swarthmore. If MIT can trade 3's for 2's They can win. 
If this is a slower, more methodical game then MIT will have to be perfect to win.

Fascinating potential matchup.   MIT must not sleep on Skidmore who I have also seen in person twice these 2 years.

Skidmore has very athletic team which could challenge MIT. I like MIT's Game IQ to beat Skidmore

I like the Mules. I called out something brewing in Waterville after Colby put up 103 points against Tufts.

Playoff time = peel back the onion on Amherst, Hamilton & Wesleyan road wins

Amherst:  Allen fouls out Day has to play 30 minutes, Mammoths shoot 2-17 from 3. Foul problems throughout. Wallace Tucker posts career high 24 points by driving past tired foul plagued Amherst guards 2nd half.

Hamilton: Hoffman plays 18 minutes & fouls out. His man Jefferson goes for 29  Hamilton defense flatfooted all game = 18 Colby assists

Wesleyan: Hutch 2-11 first half 5 points. Card team defense abysmal first half. Mules 13 assists & 12-22 from 3 in first half.

I look for the experienced Hamilton starting 5 to open up a can on the Mules. Especially after watching the film from Game 1.

Hamilton is my favorite to win the NESCAC tournament
 

Middlebury - Colby game   Folger guarded Jefferson

Middlebury-Tufts game = Farrell's worst game of season   Very soft disinterested Panther defense.  First NESCAC road 2nd game of back to back. Tufts can only win by shooting lights out. Tufts can only shoots lights out at HOME.
Payback games are TOUGH.    Middlebury by double digits

Hamilton-Colby  Grassey, Gilmour, Hoffman, Groll, Doyle all playing well to end season. Denloye off bench shot over 50% in NESCAC games. Gilmour & Hoffman scored but it was Denloye & Doyle combining for 20 points & 10 assists that was the KEY
Payback games are TOUGH.    Hamilton by high single digits to low double digits

Williams-Trinity  Coach App has a week to regroup. Trinity won that Wesleyan game due to BIG change in rotation. Trinity is no FLUKE after that adjustment. However,  I expect a BIG effort from Scadlock. Williams by double digits

Wesleyan-Amherst   I think we started to see Amherst schedule CATCH up with them at Hamilton (whistle bad both ways) 4 games in 8 days against Wesleyan, Williams, Middlebury, & Hamilton. 2nd half was physically & mentally challenging for Amherst = Cracks.

Degree of difficulty, supporting cast. Hutch as sophomore is BEST in this league. Hutch has more RANGE then Gilmour & the POINT GUARD responsibility. Playing off ball benefits Gilmour. Ball always in Hutch's hands usually trying to single handedly will his team to victory. Other teams know it, force him out further so he just hits HUGE 27 footers at the end of game.
Hutch opened my EYES all season. OMG!!! what a year.

Game 1:  62-60 Cards   Game 2:  61-60 Mammoths  Game 3: Hutch for the BUZZER BEATER.   Cards win 

Quote from: Mountain Man on November 17, 2018, 07:41:27 PM
Williams fifth slot need is the point guard position. Not exactly the definition of a role player, which showed in 14 turnovers.

Very interesting to see how they handle the defensive pressure backcourts & speed of the NESCAC. First up the Dec 1, Wesleyan game, although no Kevin O'Brien on roster reduces Cardinal backcourt defense.

interesting to see if traditional Coach App strategy of playing 10+ players will continue this year.

The Big 4 are quite impressive. They just need someone to protect the ball and get it to them in their desired spots to be dominant.

It was said earlier in the season, that ALL Williams needed was a role player.  Basketball is still a team sport with back to backs & injuries, slumps & most importantly team improvements. All teams need Bench contributions.  Amherst, Colby, Middlebury end up being the 3 most improved teams in that order. 

Shout out to D3forLyfe for seeing the Amherst talent & ascension in his preseason rankings. Coach Hixon living up to his pedigree for sure. Mammoths are a mentally superior team that is not prone to beating themselves. Hixon constructs his lineups with inordinate skill during games.

Another crazy season = If Hamilton beats Amherst then Top 6 teams separated by 1 game. Tiebreaker then reverts to W-L record versus 7th place team Colby, who would finish 2-1 against the 3 way first place Tie with both wins on road = Unbelievable 

Deeper tiebreakers versus more conference games is an interesting tradeoff & of course argument. Does the regular season NESCAC title ever really get settled on the court in this era of parity??

In a 10 team single game conference schedule there is no room for fatigue, mistakes or let downs

The human angle takes over & the talent on these teams is very close which means effort & mistakes become the difference.

The fair and balanced report on Williams-Bowdoin game will tell you that Casey hit a fall away 3 from corner late in shot clock. Feinberg hit a running two with one second left on shot clock after a loose ball scramble hit him in stride in the lane & then a 3 with 5 seconds on shot clock late in second half as the miraculous end of clock shooting WENT BOTH WAYS. Heskett had two solid up and under drives for buckets late in the shot clock in OT as well.

Coach App switch to a 3-2 late in 2nd half which delivered 4 stops = brilliant

Bowdoin outhustled a sluggish looking Williams on a back to back even though Heskett played this one after sitting out.
Credit to Simonds for giving up ball to allow corner pass to Grad for deep 3 for the win.
That was the basketball play not a senior fairy tale game winner that was really going to be a BAD shot

Williams in the NESCAC championship on a back to back = any other team in the NESCAC should sign up for that right now.
Whoever that team is I would favor to win...

Matchups Gents...  We discussed earlier..
We had 2 defensive teams in Wesleyan-Trinity.
Trinity can only beat a team with weak offense. Enter Wesleyan

Coach Cosgrove & Kyle Padmore share game balls
Trinity shuffled lineup after previous set of games that was horrible.
Trinity played 9 Each who scored 5 points or more. Balanced time,balanced play,TEAM effort

Padmore made it his Super Bowl.
Take a look at Hutch first half = SHUT DOWN  0-5  ZERO Points  Padmore was beast
Padmore ties game at 65 on layup then assists on Jordan layup for 67-65 lead
Up two 69-67 Padmore a 49% foul shooter knocks down BOTH  DAGGER!!!

3 keys to win
15 TO's by Wesleyan including several key ones in last 3 minutes when they had a lead
Wesleyan 4-21 from 3
Padmore held Hutch to 15 including 0-7 from 3.
They made him drive for everything, it took a half for him to adjust.
Since he can make every shot...FORCE HIM to MAKE TWO's

Speed kills a slow flat footed team. Midd played with patience & purpose. Tremendous Effort.
Midd got every loose ball, blocked 10 shots, and overcame a 25-15 foul difference
Fouls were 10 to 2 in 2nd Half when Ephs made run to 5. Midd answered with an array of Farrell, Bosco & Folger buckets

I said weeks ago  Focus on Casey make others beat you. THAT is what's wrong with Williams. They NEED to adjust NOW.
Scadlock's rehab from knee surgery resulted in him losing shooting reps, his outside shot & shooting confidence.

Williams has gone from 2 prolific 3 point shooters and great post and great slasher = NON CONFERENCE to 1/2 prolific 3 point shooter (well guarded Casey), great post and Heskett now is doing the slashing which leaves Scadlock out in cold = IN CONFERENCE
Scadlock's was shut down today. Defensive credit to Folger (2 blocks) with help from Sobel (6blocks).
Midd's help defense & team rebounding were superb

Heskett is pure 3 shooter from straight on only. Both corners and top of key. Watch his warmups.
He hits iron on every other 3 point shot angle, a lot go in but his confidence is straight away.
Heskett's one 3 pointer was straight on corner 3
Casey had a hand in his face from 3 all day. His only 3 was a 27 footer.

Teams can trade 3's for 2's if Karp is main option

NESCAC1 since you can't figure out the last two weeks. Let me answer = Conference play. Teams are not afraid of Ephs'
Wesleyan had them twice but could not make shots. SOS is 64% wins for Ephs to face after Jan 1.

Cupcake schedule has Williams needing to make in conference adjustments.
They have done it before. Coach App is top notch. This was a GREAT LOSS.
Exposure of weaknesses forces adjustments. Maybe new rotations.
Williams is MUCH BETTER for having today's experience

Bantams ALMOST... Palming violation in Tie Game gives ball back to Hamilton. Groll rolls in hook shot 72-70.

Great First Weekend

Williams takes the CLEAR = team to be beaten mantle at top of NESCAC

Bantams used my strategy to ALMOST....win.  Take Gilmour away & force the rest to win  4-10 & 15 points = pedestrian for Gilmour.
Just 7 points for Gilmour in the last 30 minutes of game.
Hoffman fouled out just 16 minutes. Denloye chipped in 12 from bench to balance that loss

Score was 72-70. You see how the slow (very chippy-foul fest) tempo hurts Hamilton. Slow tempo usually outlasts fast tempo team

Trinity has the athletes slow Gilmour. Middlebury does not. Middlebury will have to outscore Hamilton in a track meet.

Matchups. Constantly stressing matchups. Weekend at Midd was EYE OPENING

Can you crystal clear see the Midd weakness now.... 

The one thing that Jack Daly gave them every night. Daly defending one on one with the lead scorer on the other team

Positions 1 to 3 Middlebury HAS NO ANSWER for a STRONG PHYSICAL SLASHING SCORER   NONE!!!!  ZERO !!!
Now add the fact they HAVE ONLY 3 BIGS who LIKE TO FOUL.  It was a BULLFIGHTING WEEKEND at MIDD = OLE' OLE' OLE'

Later in the Season =
Kyle Scadlock = Lick your chops. Let them worry about everyone else while YOU HAVE YOUR WAY anytime you want it
Kena Gilmour = KG. this is your 40 or 50 point game..

Scoreboard   These are Losses.  Kudos to Wesleyan. They made all the free throws needed to win at end
Ty Nichols 26
Jon Patron 31
Cam Wiley 17 pts 9 reb 6 ast (GW shot -took over in 2nd half)
Hutch 36

Scoreboard   These were close wins. ConnCollege made EVERY SHOT. Midd won by 12 but were challenged throughout
Lebossiere 36
Henderson - Endicott 26
Phillips - Hilbert 17, 4 reb, 9 asst 2 stl (7-18 & 6 TO's)
Meren- Skidmore 20, 7 reb 3 asst.

Colby = Nice Win for Mules. Somethin brewin up in Waterville

Bobby Casey 4-15  As discussed, very difficult to be both a Primary Ball Handler & a Primary Shooter. 2 Fouls first half.
Scadlock with the ball in his hands quite a bit in 2nd half as the secondary ball handler. Scadlock's best game of season
Karp & Kempton hitting big free throws.

Cardinals not able to throw a shot into the Ocean. All on Hutch's back. Cardinals defense was superb.

Middlebury-Swarthmore.  Midd played well unlike their return from break last year. That was a net positive. Farrell triple teamed had Folger all alone at left elbow 3 point stripe but head down tried to be hero. Needed the heroics from him to take late lead but with lead he needs to pass out of double & triple teams. His seasoning is happening. Great guard potential at Midd. Next time they work the clock a bit better with their 5 point lead & get a better shot. they were outscored 7-0 to end game.

Hamilton-Keene State fine win for Hamilton. Gilmour 28. Stud. POY

Hamilton now nudges out Williams on my rankings due to strength of schedule and that pesky ball handling issue at Williams that I highlighted in NOVEMBER the loss of Greenman while Casey would be forced to handle more which would be burden against better teams. I also pointed out Spivy long before the board. I live 15 minutes from Williams. I might not write 6 paragraphs a week exalting all their strengths BUT I know them. They are dominant in the half-court. Their weaknesses are foot speed & ball handling. Foot speed can hurt you on defense and team rebounding/loose balls.

Ryan Scott said same thing. common denominator, we both have seen Williams in person this year.  Ball handling problems and you have yet to play a team prepared to beat you. Springfield & Wesleyan were still adjusting in early scheduled games. Now let's consider FOUL TROUBLE. That has NOT HAPPENED yet. That will expose the bench.

I gave you Alex Sobel as my Rookie of Year in November complete with high school video as he was best passing big man on LI. as 3rd big man on Midd, I expected him to get playing time to showcase his skill set. He has soft touch with both hands, post with good footwork. Excellent shot blocker & passer. Needs to improve strength for rebounding & defensive foot speed. learning the conference is always tough for freshman. he has held his own thus far

Contrasts of styles is VERY COMPELLING:  Midd vs. Williams & Hamilton vs. Williams  Wesleyan vs. Midd  Hamilton vs. Wesleyan
Similar styles is also Very compelling: Hamilton vs. Midd  Wesleyan vs. Williams

Predictions:  I think only Hamilton, Midd or Wesleyan can beat Williams. I favor Williams in all those games because it is much easier to dictate a half court tempo than a fast paced tempo. If Williams bench can develop, I think they can win a national title. So much balance in the starting lineup where Hamilton or Midd at a faster pace, you can disrupt them. Williams just has too may All conference potential weapons to ever be shut down for long periods.

Amherst & Tufts will be pesky at home but inconsistent I see a clear dichotomy between Top 4 teams & the rest. I would also like to see Colby in person. The Mules may have more than meets the eye

Fun fun fun.  i wish everyone & their teams well. This is what warms my winter. Basketball in D3's top conference

D3HforLyfe   .....    How BOUT Dem CARDNIALS....   Great Win... Great Trip.  Congrats!!!

Parity Parity Parity.   Defense makes results unpredictable   Kudos to Dave McHugh ...  His call...

Quote from: JEFFFAN on December 18, 2018, 10:39:34 AM
I have no doubt whatsoever that Williams is the better team over Amherst this year - more experienced, deeper, older - but this is a copout analysis.   There were three days between games, plenty of time to rest up, both games at home.   In analyzing Amherst, you opt to pick the loss and not the best win?  Fair?

My analysis was in response to D3HforLyfe asserting that Amherst would be 2nd best team at end of season behind Williams. So yes I did focus on the Jeff's loss because of what I mentioned. Williams also challenged Springfield physically for 40 minutes which weakened them for that first half against the Jeffs.  TWO days between games and the 3rd game back for Ross who is All American quality and one man gang... So yes not fair to focus on the just the loss but i didn't. I compared it to their win which I felt had some mitaging factors being Ross' third game back after 3 week injury and 2nd game in 4 night after being challenged physically by Williams. Proven by his 8-24 0-6 from 3 line against Amherst although I do love the Jeffs defensive intensity...

My point was and is that Amherst is not better than Hamilton and will not be better than Hamilton..this season.
Someone on this board has to defend Hamilton. They are extremely talented. You all give them credit as having best player in Gilmour
Middlebury, Wesleyan & Amherst comprise my next group. Very similar.

Analysis of Amherst-Springfield has to account for the previous Williams game for Springfield.

Williams game was Jake Ross' second game back from injury. 4 points first half, 20 points second half.
Springfield gave a complete effort in a 75-71 loss. 
Very hard to get up in the same emotional vein two games in a row when the first game is the one you circled

Amherst takes advantage of the emotional letdown of the Williams loss to blitz Springfield 45-27 in first half.
Amherst knows Springfield is best team they have played to date. Amherst accepts the challenge from the tip.
To me the better indication of Amherst current competitive situation is the Babson loss at home with 4 days of rest before and a cupcake scheduled for two days later. Babson won both halves .. final 68-55.

I see Wesleyan & Amherst as comparable...

There was no play by play commentary for the Midd game today.  However it was filmed by a female student athlete.

She had one comment at the half... 

"This is the BEST we have played in a long time & I'm not sure but I do not think that they (Midd) are playing well".

4-21 last year and 2-7 after today's loss.  They did shoot 45% from 3 and the field in first half.

I see this trip as an homage to Kornaker (WNY) and a great bonding opportunity over endless wings in Buffalo