Well, yesterday's post didn't age well.  Central 99 Coe 83  Kohawks had no answer for Van Gorp.

Wartburg 96 Loras 86  A real stunner...the Uhawks (no D) get steamrolled on their home court by a subpar Knights squad.  WC shoots 63% from the field, Loras goes 3-25 from three pt. land on their own court.  That Saturday scorcher vs. Dubuque maybe did take it out of them. 

I should avoid the prediction game but....what fun is that.

Rd. 2:  Dubuque 81 Central 71  Sparty has had the formula twice vs. Central.  They've proven they have the size and athleticism to slow Van Gorp and the Dutch cannot match the speed and quickness of McCants, Scott, John, etc. 

NWU 72 Wartburg 65   They split the season series....NWU has huge home court advantage with the involved travel. 

ARC Playoffs Round One:

#5 Coe @ #4 Central:  Split the season series, Coe 88-74 at home and then Central 77-73 a game in which Van Gorp had....wait for it....55 points on 36 field goal attempts.  Coe obviously has a deficiency of big bodies to stop the giant JVG.  That said, I think that level of production is just unlikely to happen again and Coe is the better team in my analysis.  Both teams struggled down the stretch, Central lost 4 of their last 5 and Coe weirdly got thumped by Wartburg last Saturday.  Still, I just think Coe is the more complete team and even on the road find a way to win this close.  Prediction: Coe 71 Central 67

#6 Wartburg @ #3 Loras   Loras swept the season series quite easily and I don't see anything slowing them down here.  Just a far more talented and deeper team.  The Duhawks come off an absolutely battle in a double overtime loss 90-86 at Dubuque on Saturday.  Did that game sap their legs on the quick turnaround?  I think not enough. Loras/NWU sets up to be an extremely interesting semifinal game. Prediction: Loras 83 Wartburg 68

I don't know, just don't see Gustavus as a top 25 team...the MIAC is really weak outside of GAC and St. John's.  Hamline and Carelton are just barely inside the Massey 100 and the rest of the teams are really poor. D3 datacast has the MIAC 27th out of 44 conferences.   GAC is only 5-4 against teams inside the top 100.  Doesn't mean everything, but means something. 

Quote from: doolittledog on February 19, 2025, 10:40:14 PMDubuque with a 3 point win @ Coe gives the Spartans the outright conference title.
NWU and Loras are playing for 2nd and 3rd place.
Coe and Central are 8-7 heading into the final regular season game on Saturday.
Wartburg and BVU are 7-8 going into their final game this weekend. 
I have no idea how those tie breakers could play out. 

I believe this is a 3 horse race...UD and NWU are the obvious clear favorites...Loras has a chance but as the saying goes, defense wins championships....Loras has to win shootouts.  Coe and Central just don't have enough firepower in my view. 

Breakdown:

Dubuque:  Outright conference champs.  The most athletic team in the conference headed by should-be all-American Jaylin McCants.  UD has speed, size, and hurt you in lots of different ways.  That said, prone to bonehead stretches of play sometimes and bad free throw shooting, definitely not unbeatable.  Still my clear favorite to win it.

NWU:  Wellman has brought back the 3-2 zone that won him a national title and it's really annoying to play against.  The two wins over UD are huge, but it looks like they will have to travel if they want to win a tournament title, a tough task that puts them at a disadvantage. 

Loras:  A good offensive team.  They have some talented scorers but just not athletic enough defensively.  A typically offensively aggressively Chris Martin team, will have to get stops.  Big game Saturday at UD for bragging rights, UD put up 100 last time out. 

Coe:  Well-coached team, but lack size and athleticism.  Scrappy though and are not an easy out.

Central:  No disrespect to Van Gorp, he's had a great career, but does not do as well against other bigs where he can't just bull his way in for easy layups.  Brand is a nice player in the midrange but WILL NOT shoot threes.  This means you can pretty comfortably sag way off of Brand and put an extra defender in the lane to help on Van Gorp....Schipper is the only other scoring, huge drop off after that.  Have also lost four in a row, bringing no confidence into the tourney.

Wartburg and BV:  Just not the year for either one.  Wartburg did somehow knock off NWU, but don't see either of these teams advancing past the first round. 

Wild night in the ARC last night....

Dubuque nearly gets knocked off by 1-19 Luther in Decorah, holds on 60-59 thanks to 29 pts. from Jaylin McCants

5-16 Simpson shocks 12-9 Coe 83-78 on the back of 13 made 3 pointers.  Really bad loss for the Kohawks--no offense to the Storm, but one of the worst teams I've ever seen in person when UD rolled them a couple of weeks ago.

BV pulls a mild upset over Central 83-77...the story....3 pointers again...19-42 made for the Beavers vs. 5-21 by the Dutch.

Loras held court over a really bad Wartburg team.

As is stands....NWU and UD in position for the coveted top seed byes in the conference tournament.  Central, Loras, BV, and Coe are chasing for seeding. Central at 8-4 has a shot at a first or second seed--they hold a win over NWU.  These look to be the 6 teams who will make it. 

Quote from: SpartyBlue on January 23, 2025, 03:29:06 PM

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on December 16, 2024, 09:15:19 PMI think Gustavus could give them a run.  They don't play until very late in the season, but I think GAC is pretty darn good.

I watched Dubuque take apart Gustavus in person a few weeks ago.  It's only one game but...I didn't see anything special in GAC--they're an old team, physically strong, but they couldn't handle UD's speed at all, looked plodding offensively.  In their tour-de-American Rivers they also barely beat Coe and Central, both of whom are decent but not great, but 2 of 3 opponent victories inside the Massey 100.  I could be wrong, but was very unimpressed with GAC.

I'd love to get someone's take here.  GAC has been rolling since this loss, but against subpar competition.  I understand how road games can be fluky, just curious how much of a quality win this was for UD.  Fun fact: on 12/30 Dubuque loses to 373rd Massey ranked Blackburn....on 1/4 UD runs over 29th Massey ranked GAC--go figure.

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on December 16, 2024, 09:15:19 PMI think Gustavus could give them a run.  They don't play until very late in the season, but I think GAC is pretty darn good.

I watched Dubuque take apart Gustavus in person a few weeks ago.  It's only one game but...I didn't see anything special in GAC--they're an old team, physically strong, but they couldn't handle UD's speed at all, looked plodding offensively.  In their tour-de-American Rivers they also barely beat Coe and Central, both of whom are decent but not great, but 2 of 3 opponent victories inside the Massey 100.  I could be wrong, but was very unimpressed with GAC.

Good info!

Dubuque 100 Loras 79 in the Key City Clash.  This is a huge win for Sparty--essentially running Loras out of their own gym.  So, what does this win mean big picture?  Both teams were 12-4/6-1 coming in and this win puts UD in a great position to vie with NWU for the conference championship.

UD is very tough athletic matchup for ARC teams this year, Jaylin McCants is playing at an all-american level now and you really can't double team him as the offensive threats are high at each position.  UD has moved into the top 50 Massey and I believe is edging into the national conversation.  There are two terrible road losses to bad teams in Edgewood and Blackburn but since the Blackburn loss, UD has rattled off 6 in a row including a dismantling of a very good Gustavus Adolphus team.  We'll see what happens, but UD is set up for another 20 win regular season...the home matchup with NWU looms, Central on the road, and then Loras to close things out.   Keep an eye out for the Spartans.

Quote from: GusD on October 28, 2024, 01:35:14 PM

Quote from: SpartyBlue on October 24, 2024, 03:07:33 PM

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on October 23, 2024, 07:52:22 AMhttps://nwusports.com/news/2024/10/22/2024-25-prairie-wolf-preview-mens-basketball.aspx

Nebraska Wesleyan picked first in the preseason poll. Here is NWU's season preview. They note 3 transfers and 3 freshmen, but don't mention anything about them, not even names. I thought that was unusual.

Nick Howard 6' 8" played some big minutes for Illinois Benedictine as a Soph....Owen Alleman 7' 0" Fr. which is unusual but...175 lbs...Vinnie Veiklas didn't do a lot in two years at College of Wooster.  Carter Ruse didn't do a lot at Roane College....That's what I see, but could be missing something.  It feels like the Wolves will struggle to fill the numbers missing with Lash out. 

Nick Howard started every game for Benedictine last season. Overall, he was the third best player on the team, averaging 11.1 PPG, and 7.5 RPG, with 27 blocked shots. Two possible reasons for his transfer 1) Benedictine's top two players also transferred. Top player went to D2 Minnesota Crookston, and 2nd best went to D3 Champ Trine. 2) Howard is from Kansas so he's now much closer to home. 

Patrick Mayfield, former Dubuque all-conference player, then two years at Division I Akron, is at Benedictine this year under former Dubuque assistant Jordan Townsend.

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on October 23, 2024, 07:52:22 AMhttps://nwusports.com/news/2024/10/22/2024-25-prairie-wolf-preview-mens-basketball.aspx

Nebraska Wesleyan picked first in the preseason poll. Here is NWU's season preview. They note 3 transfers and 3 freshmen, but don't mention anything about them, not even names. I thought that was unusual.

Nick Howard 6' 8" played some big minutes for Illinois Benedictine as a Soph....Owen Alleman 7' 0" Fr. which is unusual but...175 lbs...Vinnie Veiklas didn't do a lot in two years at College of Wooster.  Carter Ruse didn't do a lot at Roane College....That's what I see, but could be missing something.  It feels like the Wolves will struggle to fill the numbers missing with Lash out. 

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on October 19, 2024, 01:54:27 PMPretty hard to gauge the ARC. The big news is that Van Gorp is returning. Are there any other big name players coming back for a 5th year? Any notable transfers coming in?

UD has 6' 3" Jalen Scott coming in from Rock Valley College and is a former Colorado State recruit.  Put up decent numbers last year at Rock Valley. 

His Colorado St. bio reads:  Three-star recruit according to 247Sports.com, which has him rated as the No. 11 recruit in the state of Arizona and 38th point guard nation-wide....Chose the Rams over offers from Northern Arizona and UC Riverside...

Interesting. 

ARC early season exhibitions:

Central at D2 Concordia (NE)  Nov. 1
Central at D2 Hastings (NE) Nov. 1
Dubuque at D1 Univ. of Northern Iowa Nov. 4
BV vs. NAIA Dakota Wesleyan Oct. 26

Quote from: doolittledog on April 01, 2024, 12:12:32 PMFormer Dubuque head coach Paul Lusk is headed to the Final Four as an assistant with Purdue. 

Interesting...how many coaches go from 2-23 in one year at a D-III to assistant at D-I SIU, to assist at Purdue the next year, to head coach at D-I Missouri State, then Creighton, then Purdue.  Quite the journey.

Round 1  Hampton-Sydney/Stevens/Carnegie Mellon/Catholic/St. Thomas, TX/Whitworth/Neb. Wesleyan/Trinity, TX./Widener/Chris Newport/DeSales/Oswego/TCNJ/Keene St./PSU-H/Guilford/Case Western/Hope/Loras/UW Platteville/Wabash/Trine/Dubuque/Wash U/Randolph Macon/St. Joe, CT./Elmhurt/John Carroll/Swarthmore/Trinity, CT/Tufts/NYU

Round 2 Hampton-Sydney/Carnegie Mellon/St. Thomas, TX/Neb. Wesleyan/Chris Newport/DeSales/Keene St./Guilford/Case Western/UW-Platteville/Trine/Dubuque/Randolph Macon/John Carroll/Swarthmore/NYU

Sweet 16  Carnegie Mellon/St. Thomas, TX./DeSales/Guilford/Case Western/Trine/John Carroll/NYU

Elite 8  Carnegie Mellon/Guilford/Case Western/John Carroll

Final 4 Guilford/Case Western

Champ  Case Western Tiebreak 141