If I read the tie breaker's correctly, Bates can still get in with a win over Colby and an Amherst-Trinity tie.  They would be even on points and tied head to head, but Bates would have one more conference win.

Not sure about them getting into NCAAs.  They need to make sure they are in the NESCAC tourney first, and then would need at least 1 good result there and hope that upsets elsewhere do not result in other teams stealing a bid.

Using the most current NCAA RPI figures, Middlebury's opponents this year in order of ranking
4. Williams
10. Conn
17. Tufts
20. Wesleyan
23. Bowdoin
33. Hamilton
45. Amherst
54. Endicott
62. Trinity
76. Colby
95. Bates
138. RPI
200. Merchant Marine
313. Maine Maritime
Non conference opponents in bold. 

Quote from: SimpleCoach on October 23, 2026, 10:13:05 AMJust based on anecdotal evidence, I think teams in some conferences figured out that they can game the NPI a little bit, and lay off the throttle in non-conference games.

SC.

Is it gaming the system, or is it smart scheduling?  If you already have 10 conference games that are top 100, your conference only plays 15 games, and your travel outside the region is restricted, why would a school add more?

Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on October 22, 2026, 06:14:45 PMWhile the out of conf. schedule looks impressive. NESCAC out of conf. teams are not impressive or are not in the least this year. Each plays 4 or 5 teams. How many are top teams? Very, very few. Middlebury's out of conf teams are very middling.

Maine Marine ranked 309
Husson 233
Endicott 57 (the one exception)
US Merchant 189

Amherst

Albertus Magnus 165
Westfield 376
Babson 45
Keene 327
Husson 233

Williams

Gordon 80
Wheaton MA 51
Keene 327
Univ of Hartford 156

Tufts

UMASS 197
Thomas 113
WPI 326
Babson 45
Westfield 376

On several occasions, they just beat up on the same teams.

Midd's actual out of conference opponents were
US Merchant Marine Academy 200
Endicott 54
RPI 138
Maine Maritime 313

Quote from: Sandon Mibut on October 19, 2026, 03:32:52 PM

Quote from: College Soccer Observer on October 18, 2026, 08:44:22 PM...and Bates was called for 5 more fouls than Amherst. 

If you look at any single game it is common for Amherst to have fewer penalties than their opponents. However, the hidden stat is how much worse most opponents play (fouls/game and cards/game) when facing Amherst. From 2021-today, the 10 NESCAC teams not named Amherst have played over 1000 total games with an average # of fouls/game around 11.5 and average # of cards/game of 1.4.

When you look at every game Amherst has played since 2021, their opposition has averaged 13.5 fouls/game and 2.04 cards/game.

You have to go back to 2012 to find a season in which Amherst was not 1st or 2nd in the conference in cards/game (and they've "won" 9 out of last 13 years).

I'd wager Serpone's strategy also helped shape Alex Elias's approach in coaching the Middlebury team as Middlebury has seemed more physical since Elias took over in 2017 and has been in the top-3 of cards/game for most of Elias's tenure as head coach (not in 2023 nor 2026 YTD).

For Amherst you have to go back to 9/28/24 just to find a game in which they had zero cards. And back to 11/5/23 to find a game in which both Amherst and their opponent had zero cards in a game. Amherst has had just 4 games since the start of the 2022 season with zero cards (that's 4 out of 89 games over the course of 4.5 seasons)!

And Amherst is worse when they get to the NCAA tournament. Since 2021 they've averaged 17.3 fouls/game in NCAA play while racking up an astronomical 63 cards in 22 NCAA tournament games. If you remove their 2021 NCAA tournament - which was fairly benign by their standards - they're averaging 18.2 fouls/game and have 53 cards in 16 NCAA games from 2022-2025.

Since Covid, the NESCAC has also gotten increasingly physical. Before 2020, it was rare to have more than 1-2 NESCAC teams average > 1.5 cards/game over the course of the regular conference season. Since covid an average of 1.5 cards/game is normal and we're regularly seeing 2-3 teams average at least 2 cards per game for entire regular conference seasons.

In summary: Amherst's rough "style" is a systemic issue dating back at least a dozen years, and it is also increasingly endemic to the NESCAC (and perhaps all of the upper-tiers of D3 soccer?).

I think the problem with using cards per game is that, especially pre-Coivd, referees in the NESCAC were reluctant to give cards.  One of the first NESCAC games I attended in person was Middlebury at Amherst in Sept 2019.  55 fouls called, and three yellows, all in overtime.  Same two teams played again in NESCAC semis, 32 fouls, three yellows (no overtime).  As the general oversight of NCAA soccer officiating has focused on clamping down on some of the nonsense, you are seeing more cards for things that used to be just fouls or were ignored altogether.  My impression is that the style of play has always been physical, but that the referees are reacting to it differently now.
In 2019, there were only 2 red cards given to NESCAC men's teams.  Trinity, Amherst, Midd, and Bates all averaged more than 1 yellow per game.  In 2021, there were 4 reds, and Bowdoin, Tufts, and Williams were the only teams to get less than a yellow per game.  In 2022, there were 10 reds and only Bowdoin and Colby were less than a yellow per game.  In 2023, there were 8 reds, and only Bowdoin was less than a yellow per game.  In 2024, there were 5 red cards (4 to Trinity) and no team in the league was under a yellow per game. In 2025, there were 5 reds, but the only 2 teams who averaged less than a yellow per game were Wesleyan and Bates.  This year, there have been 6 reds and only Bates is under a yellow per game. 

There needs to be a signal, which is either a horn/buzzer, or the timekeeper saying zero in the countdown.

If you do any research at all, you know I am not a fan of their style of play.  There are plenty of examples of fouls that cross the line from their history.  This is not one of them.

Let's keep a bit of perspective here.  A red card for DOGSO is hardly proof of dirty play, and Bates was called for 5 more fouls than Amherst. 

Quote from: Hopkins92 on September 26, 2026, 01:06:30 PM

Quote from: Ejay on September 25, 2026, 03:02:03 PM

Quote from: Hopkins92 on September 25, 2026, 10:21:03 AMAnd I don't know why I'm defending the Dips, but that's a convenient year to start that accounting, because they made it to the Elite 8 once and the Sweet 16 3 times in the span before 2017.

You're right, I should have gone back to 1952 when they were voted Outstanding Team in the Nation by NSCAA :eyeroll:

I don't think saying that the 3 previous deep runs directly preceding your chosen cut off is a zany thing to bring up. If I'd pulled you back even into the 90s... point taken, tip of the hat.

But 2014-2016 saw some pretty good runs.

Starting my analysis in 2013, because the Dips did not make the NCAA in 2011 or 2012. 
2013 first two rounds at Dickinson--beat Catholic 1-0 and Dickinson 3-0; 3rd and 4th rounds at Messiah--beat Rose-Hulman 3-0, Lost to Messiah 4-1.
2014 first two rounds at home.  Beat Johnson and Wales 1-0, Beat Rochester on pks after 2-2 tie.  Lost in 3rd round at Oneonta
2015 first two rounds at home.  Beat Babson 1-0 and Gordon 3-1.  Lost to Calvin 1-0 at Kenyon
2016 first two rounds at home.  Beat Geneva 1-0 and Washington and Lee 2-0.  Next two rounds at Messiah.  Beat Cortland 1-0, Lost to Calvin 4-1
2017 at Lycoming, lost 3-2 to Drew in 1st round
2018 hosted first two rounds.  Beat Western Connecticut 2-1 in OT, lost to Eastern 1-0.
2019 hosted first two rounds.  Beat PSU Harrisburg 1-0, lost in PKs to Montclair State after 0-0 draw.
2021 hosted first two rounds.  Beat SUNY Poly 5-0, lost to Middlebury 2-0
2022 hosted first two rounds.  Beat St. Joseph's (CT) 2-0, lost to Cortland State on pks after 3-3 draw.
2023 hosted first two rounds.  Beat Geneva 1-0, lost to Connecticut on pks after 1-1 draw
2024 at Connecticut for first two rounds.  Beat Western Connecticut 2-1 in OT, lost to Conn 3-0.

Let's look at who they got knocked out by
2013--Messiah (National Champs)
2014--Oneonta (Final Four)
2015--Calvin (Final Four)
2016--Calvin (Runner Up)
2017--Drew (lost in 3rd round)
2018--Eastern (lost in 4th round)
2019--Montclair State (lost in 4th round)
2021--Middlebury (lost in 4th round)
2022--Cortland State (lost in 3rd round)
2023--Connecticut (lost in 4th round)
2024--Connecticut (Runner Up)

I would suggest that the only really bad results there are the losses to Drew and Eastern.  Could they have gone further, especially since they frequently hosted the first two rounds?  Absolutely, but 3 losses on PKs and losses to Calvin, Messiah, Middlebury, Conn, and Cortland State is not anything to be embarrassed about.

1 AQ

There was confusion and the second yellow card was given in error, because he did not have a first yellow card.  The box score was corrected.  He has one yellow card from that game and will be permitted to play tomorrow.

Last year it was released on Wednesday morning of the week between the NESCAC finals and the NCAA tournament.  Look for it tomorrow.

I had a discussion with the coaches at my son's school.  It was along the lines of why multiple women's programs (hockey, lacrosse, field hockey) were winning national championships while the men's sports in general were not at that level.  I was told that having a C on the transcript basically rules you out.  The coach said too many freshman boys goof off their first year of high school and make themselves inadmissible, whereas the girls are less likely to do that in their freshman year.  This gives the men a smaller pool of student athletes to recruit from.

Quote from: Hotskull on November 09, 2025, 02:35:37 PMAll season long I have said it's Tufts vs everybody. Other teams see the Jumbos and they congregate, try to imitate, hate, but ultimately find their fate.

I see a team of winners, coached by a staff of winners, supported by a fan base of winners. Like soccerlover said, the NESCAC is full of small liberal arts schools (apart from Conn) and today they spent their Sunday watching Tufts lift yet another trophy... coaches will be studying the Jumbos, as they have in the past, wondering what they can pick up from the most successful program in recent history... but you just can't copy greatness. Learn to appreciate it.

Josh Shapiro built a dynasty and Dezotell has since took over the reigns. 2 NESCAC championships since the start of his tenure and it's hard to imagine he won't follow in Shapiros footsteps. His first year having a team of players only recruited by himself and look at the result... put some respect on that man's name.

I'm taking Tufts moneyline till the day I die and if you want outsized returns compared to your 401k or the S&P, I suggest you do the same.

Haram University has captured the conference trophy in the best league in D3 and best believe they are ready for the national stage.

Not all questioning their soccer pedigree.  But if you think being a school of over 7,000, in greater Boston, and offering graduate programs does not give them a huge leg up on the rest of the NESCAC, I don't know what to tell you.

To be fair, he did not really do much.  This was a complete overreaction by the officials.  They thought they saw him strike an opponent with the ball after the game, and that did not happen.  Unfortunately, there is no recourse once the red is given.