The biggest mismatch for JCU will be their interior offensive line against JP Sullivan and Maverick Ohle. I'm not sure if they have injuries or not, but the starting center and right guard on the depth chart are listed as freshmen. Mount Union was routinely getting penetration and pressure up the middle, and I expect NCC will be able to as well.

Montgomery and Rawls are obviously great athletes and threats in the passing game, and Semptimphelter will certainly be one of the top four QBs they have faced this season. But I think the NCC front will control the line of scrimmage.

As USee noted, JCU's defensive front is also very stout, and their defense overall is very disciplined. I think this will definitely be a lower-scoring game than the previous two games for NCC.

Hoping for a good turnout at the game—the weather is looking good, all things considered.

Quote from: unionpalooza on December 17, 2025, 11:52:05 AMMan, the NCC fans seem to be running hard to keep up with the Mt. Union guys in the joyless department.  They've hit Twitter to express their outrage that ESPN+ has brought in two outside players by play guys, one of whom is a John Carroll alum, instead of using NCC's house guys, for Saturday's game. Putting aside the fact that (i) of course ESPN+ is going to use guys who have worked with ESPN+ crews instead of guys who have never done so and (ii) you can't coherently complain the JCU guy will bring bias and then argue it should be two NCC guys instead, it just baffles me that NCC fans can watch their teams win a bunch of nattys and still whine about stuff this small and dumb.

It's the same 3 or 4 NCC fans who constantly complain and troll about everything related to the team on X (one in particular who is the WORST). It's unfortunate that this poorly represents the rest of the fanbase, but not much can be done to stop them. The one who complains the most only became a fan in 2021, so he hasn't even been around for the entire program turnaround—it's frustrating, to say the least.

Quote from: CarollFan on December 16, 2025, 08:41:29 AMLet's not forget the OL. I seem to recall some questions early in the season. They seem to be performing well.

Without a doubt, the biggest difference between the start of the season and now is the performance of the offensive line. They have gotten better and more cohesive as the season has progressed, which should be expected since they had four new starters to incorporate.

I still remember NCC not scoring on four straight tries from inside the 2-yard line against Carthage in their second game of the season.

Kudos to OC/offensive line coach Eric Stuedemann—he consistently develops top-tier offensive linemen.

Quote from: hazzben on December 15, 2025, 02:31:45 PMCongrats to NCC. First half was a really fun back and forth battle. Your run game clearly got the better of us in the second half and set the tone. NCC Oline was really impressive, the ability to sustain blocks was absolutely elite. Coupled with McNeal's patience, knowing he could wait, find where the crease was going to open, and then hit it with a full head of steam. He's also a load for anyone to bring down one on one.

Your kicker is also an absolute weapon in the post-season. Our kicker has been very accurate, but anything outside of 42 and it's probably a no go. That lack of leg strength, combined with a rock hard ball, really limited our kicking game. Meanwhile NCC's kicker just kept crushing it. In good weather he probably makes that first one, but he was really effective.

It was a great opportunity to go toe to toe with the cream of D3 over the last 6-7 years. Those measuring sticks are helpful for a program. You were the better, deeper team this year. The championship pedigree and experience was also visible in the second half. I'm encouraged by how young this Bethel team is.

I was wondering about the Bethel kicking situation when the coach went for it on the 4th and 6 play the refs ended up completely botching. It would have been a 31-yard FG attempt, and the score would have been 14-10 at the half with Bethel getting the ball to start the second half. I just assumed they didn't trust their kicker. I understand being aggressive when playing a team like NCC, but converting a 4th and 6 against this defense has to be a pretty low-percentage play.

I thought one of the biggest plays of the game was the Bethel kick returner dropping the second-half kickoff, which led to them starting at their own 10. Four plays later, the punt only went 28 yards, and that left NCC with a short field they capitalized on shortly after.

Bethel was a great team and seemingly has most of their key guys back next season—they should be a force to be reckoned with again.

The refs completely botched that play...

1. I thought he was short of the first (up for debate)

https://x.com/fftmag/status/1999923330858766829?s=46&t=2LpDHlmLWW7A7c0oIFbv5Q

2. Progress was clearly stopped before the fumble

3. How is it then overturned ?

Here are my thoughts on the Bethel/NCC matchup...
The first thing that stands out when watching the Bethel offense is the number of unorthodox formations they utilize and the tempo. Many formations involve multiple pre-snap shifts, with some crazy alignments. Often you will see a Bethel WR (or two) standing within a yard of the sideline.

The tempo is what concerns me the most. Bethel is often ready to snap the ball 10–15 seconds after the previous play. UWL had success in the 4th quarter playing with pace, and while NCC has great depth, they do not rotate players in and out on defense. Particularly, the defensive line almost never subs out unless dinged up, and I can see them getting worn down throughout the course of the game if Bethel is able to maintain a high tempo and convert first downs. They were gassed in the 4th quarter against UWL, with some of that due to the fact that the onside kick basically gave them no break. NCC also likes to match personnel, and on quite a few occasions has had to burn timeouts early in games to get the right personnel grouping or play call in to match what the offense has out there.

The running back duo will be the best NCC has faced thus far this season. Both are really strong, rugged runners. NCC probably had their worst tackling performance of the season last week, and combined with the cold, I can see these two RBs being very difficult to wrap up and bring to the ground on first contact.

Bethel's passing game looks efficient and relies more on YAC than downfield throws. This is a good formula against NCC, as they tend to allow teams to hit quick passes to the flats and perimeter, and rely on their tackling to prevent big gains. UWL was patient on their first drive of the game and dink-and-dunked their way down the field to a TD. Wheaton also had success doing this on multiple drives in the NCC game but was unable to convert in the red zone. NCC seems to bet on OCs getting impatient and eventually taking shots down the field, where they then can make a big play or get pressure with their front four. The first interception by Marey Roby last week was a good example of this. UWL had been methodically moving the ball down the field, decided to take a shot at a deep pass to the end zone, and Roby made them pay.

Drews is very impressive and utilized as more of a runner than I anticipated. He seems very similar to Garret Wilson in that aspect: you do not expect either of them to run, but when they do, it's usually a better result than expected.

It sounded like the broadcast last week said Bethel was without their starting center due to a concussion. The offensive line that played against UWP looked solid but not overwhelming. Not sure if they were dealing with other injuries—I think I saw somewhere they were without three starters? I do think the NCC front four could wreak havoc if Bethel truly is that beat up on the offensive line.

On the other side of the ball, I think this is the best defense NCC will have faced thus far this season. The defensive line is physical, and the LBs and DBs are all plus athletes. UWP had pretty good success running the ball before they got down, though, and I think NCC should be able to run the ball pretty effectively.

The big question for me is whether the Bethel pass defense will be able to confuse or force turnovers from Wilson when he drops back to pass. While he has been great so far this season, he's had a few instances of questionable decision-making and taking risks on some throws—he is still only a sophomore/RS freshman. If Bethel is able to pressure him, it could lead to a few risky throws where plays are there to be made by the defense.

I was only able to watch Bethel's games against UWP and Coe, plus the D3Zone highlights of the St. John's game, so I'm basing these thoughts on those performances.

I think this should be a really great game. Hoping the weather doesn't play too big of a factor.

Quote from: USee on December 09, 2025, 05:42:49 PMWheatons offense was doo doo when we played you. Forcucci was hurt and our OL was nowhere near ready for the NCC Def front. 

Our defense is also playing much better.  Not to say it would have changed the outcome.

Bethel is much more balanced than Lacrosse. 

Sorry I wasn't trying to say the Wheaton and UWL offense were equal to or less than each other or Bethel.  I more so meant I need to watch some Bethel games to see how they compare to those 2 offenses which were clearly the best NCC faced this season.

I'm very high on Forcucci as a player and NCC was fortunate to not have to play him either this season at full health or last season when he didn't play at all.

I also still stand by what I said right after the NCC/Wheaton game, that was the best home atmosphere NCC has had in my time attending NCC games since 2005. I think that played a factor in the score as well. The only other comparison I have is the 2022 semifinal against UMHB where the crowd was really great.

Quote from: CarollFan on December 09, 2025, 07:57:37 PM

Quote from: NCC2010 on December 09, 2025, 02:56:21 PM

Quote from: USee on December 09, 2025, 01:44:30 PMI think Bethel needs to keep NCC under 21 pts to have a chanced to win. It will be tough for Bethel to score much more than that IMO. Lacrosse scored on the last play of the game to get to 28.

Another LaCrosse TD was setup by a 50 yd half back pass that got them down to the 1.  They then scored on 4th and goal from the 3 on a play where Haas was dead to rights in Renick's arms, escaped and then made a good throw and an even better catch by the TE for the TD.

I need to watch more of Bethel before I comment on their offense compared to UWL/Wheaton, etc.

UWL had 418 total yds, more yards then NCC. UWL had 347 passing yds. UWL WR #19 had 100 yds receiving and 4 TD's.

I think the NCC picks by Roby #2 were huge, stopping a drive and a pick 6 late in first half.

Turnovers could be huge this Saturday too.

Here is the press conference you were discussing earlier. Sound is a little off early but clears up after a minute or so.

Without a doubt Roby's 2 INTS were the critical plays in the game.  However, the total yards are a bit misleading IMO.  UWL outgained NCC 186 yards to 14 over the final 9 minutes of the game and closed the gap from 35-14 to 35-27 in that time.  Obviously not ideal to give up that much yardage, but their were backups mixed in the last 2 drives and UWL had 3 drives to NCC's 1 in that 9 minutes due to recovering the onside kick.

If there is snowfall on Saturday I'm hoping there isn't too much as Coach Spencer mentioned in either this press conference of the previous one that the field is essentially on top of rocks/the river and therefore they cannot use a bigger plow on it. 

Quote from: USee on December 09, 2025, 01:44:30 PMI think Bethel needs to keep NCC under 21 pts to have a chanced to win. It will be tough for Bethel to score much more than that IMO. Lacrosse scored on the last play of the game to get to 28.

Another LaCrosse TD was setup by a 50 yd half back pass that got them down to the 1.  They then scored on 4th and goal from the 3 on a play where Haas was dead to rights in Renick's arms, escaped and then made a good throw and an even better catch by the TE for the TD.

I need to watch more of Bethel before I comment on their offense compared to UWL/Wheaton, etc.

Quote from: hazzben on December 09, 2025, 01:26:54 PMWhere Team stats sat nationally going into the playoffs. Once you hit playoffs these get skewed due to teams not playing or bounced early stay high, not facing 2-3 rds of top comp.
Listed in order by Logan Hansen's Predictive Rating - National Rankings: Scoring O, Scoring D, Total O, Total D, Red Zone O, Red Zone D, Pass Eff, Pass Eff D, Rush O, Rush D, TO Margin, 1st Down O, 1st Down D, 3rd Down, 3rd Down D, 4th Down, 4th Down D

#1 UWRF (LH - 56.3): 10, 61, 1, 83, 43, 83, 58, 69, 19, 23, 43, 1, 80, 19, 40, 75, 19 - Ave: 42.8
#2 North Central (LH - 55.0): 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 6, 24, 11, 8, 25, 5, 3, 1 - Ave: 6.5
#3 Bethel (LH - 46.6): 2, 2, 7, 6, 10, 6, 35, 6, 17, 5, 8, 2, 3, 7, 4, 27, 3 - Ave: 8.8
#4 Wheaton (LH - 43.3): 12, 44, 23, 47, 54, 230, 9, 75, 98, 45, 68, 23, 68, 9, 70, 36, 126 - Ave: 61.2

Noteworthy:
- UWRF and NCC flip for the first time all season. Bethel a steady #3, Wheaton keeps rising, up from #11 for LH Ratings.
- NCC was Top 25 in every category, top 5 in 13 heading into the post-season.
- Bethel the clear number 2 statistically, and not far off NCC. UWRF numbers are skewed given the WIAC slate.
- UWRF's D was clearly their weakness, and the WIAC was not an offensively explosive league this year. However, back-half D numbers would look much better for UWRF. They will face their most balanced, explosive offense this week. No one they faced in WIAC has a passing game as good as Wheaton, or the balance IMO. UWP was probably closest (I don't think UWL QB was healthy).
- All 4 teams are playing very good football, Wheaton with the biggest improvement, but also the most room to improve.
- Each team has faced at least 1 very good defense in the post-season and both moved the ball and scored.
You've basically two groupings. UWRF and NCC are essentially 1a and 1b. There's a small gap, then Bethel and Wheaton in a grouping. Home teams are clear favorites. Logan's Spreads: NCC -12, UWRF -13. This is the tightest spread Logan's system has projected for NCC since 2021 v UMHB. Weather is a major variable. River Falls will be right around 0 with low wind and low chance of snow. Naperville high of 14 with likely light snowfall. The snow is the biggest X factor IMO. Bethel will need to be able to throw the ball effectively.

Logan's Odds of making Stagg Bowl | winning title:
NCC 70% | 46%
UWRF 65% | 34%
Bethel 16% | 7.1%
Wheaton 10% | 2.9%

Those are actually the "composite" odds for the Stagg.  Which takes into account Massey, Logan's and a few others. 

Logan's odds for the title are:

NCC 68.4% | 36.4%
UWRF 68.4% | 41.7%
Bethel 17.3% | 6%
Wheaton 9.4% | 2.9%

His model is higher on UWRF than the composite and give Bethel a better shot to beat NCC than it does.  But also, being higher on UWRF gives Bethel less of a chance to win it all.

Quote from: hazzben on December 08, 2025, 11:56:53 AM

Quote from: NCC2010 on December 08, 2025, 09:34:32 AM

Quote from: hazzben on December 07, 2025, 11:55:13 PM

Quote from: robertgoulet on December 07, 2025, 09:40:13 PM

Quote from: hazzben on December 07, 2025, 09:52:02 AMWe need to see what the post-blaha era brings. But I said to my brother yesterday, UWRF feels a little like 2003 SJU. A very good team, with a transcendent player, and a feeling of almost inevitability. That Mount team was also regarded like this NCC team. Supposedly the best ever and unbeatable.
 

Quote from: hazzben on December 07, 2025, 11:55:13 PM

Quote from: robertgoulet on December 07, 2025, 09:40:13 PM

Quote from: hazzben on December 07, 2025, 09:52:02 AMWe need to see what the post-blaha era brings. But I said to my brother yesterday, UWRF feels a little like 2003 SJU. A very good team, with a transcendent player, and a feeling of almost inevitability. That Mount team was also regarded like this NCC team. Supposedly the best ever and unbeatable.
 

Not sure who is saying NCC is the best ever and unbeatable...certainly not coming from NCC fans. Most of us realize that the team took a pretty sizable step back after last season, especially on offense.

I wasn't clear, I was meaning to say "best ever Mount team." That said ...

Logan's metric's earlier this year had NCC as the 5th highest since 1997, but all 4 above them achieved their peak in the post-season. Higher than peak 2022 NCC in Rd 4 and peak 2024 NCC in week 7. Even more interesting now that I'm looking back at the list, they are just ahead of 2003 Mount Union Rd 4.

Logan's regular season only list has 2025 NCC with the highest ever regular season rating.

Bringing this post over to the CCIW board, it is interesting to note that now NCC isn't even the highest team rated left in the field.  UWRF has surpassed them this week.

https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1997407900008931713?s=20

Thanks NCC2010...My point above was simply that there's a feeling of inevitability to the NCC vs UWRF stagg (though I hope to be proved wrong Saturday). We didn't have logan's metrics in 2003, and while SJU didn't lose that year like UWRF has this year, they had a few close calls. But Blaha gives me serious Blake Elliot vibes. It remains to be seen if the rest of the team around him is as good as SJU's 03 supporting cast. And 2025 NCC may yet prove immortal, where 03 Mount got shocked.

I could be dead wrong, but I feel like we have the semifinal pairings a week early. NCC, UWRF, Wheaton, and Bethel are all playing really well right now on both sides of the ball. The biggest threats to an All Midwest Red Stagg Bowl IMO are Wheaton and Bethel. JHU and Sus are both really good teams with some awesome weapons, but I just can't see them as compete enough teams to win 3 more games. JCU v Berry feels similar. JCU is playing incredible D, has a very good QB and WR combo, and they just knocked off Mount. They might be the sleeper. But it's one thing to beat Mount, an opponent they are very familiar with. It's another to win on the road in the Semi's with a totally unfamiliar, physical, and balanced foe. Their posters assume NCC in the semi's is a fait accompli, but Bethel would fit that bill as well. I'll save my deep dive into these games for later in the week, both home teams are clear favorites. But they have two real hurdles to clear first.

Yep, I was just pointing out that NCC is no longer the favorite in Logan's model — something that's been pretty rare since 2021. In fact, this is the lowest spread (-10.9) for an NCC game in his model since NCC was a half-point underdog to UMHB in the 2021 Stagg Bowl.

I still need to rewatch all of Bethel's playoff games before I can say much about this week's matchup, but I did find it notable that Coach Spencer mentioned in the post-game press conference that the coaches on staff who remain from 2018 are motivated to avenge that last home loss, which came at the hands of the Royals.

Quote from: CarollFan on December 08, 2025, 08:27:12 AMLogan's projections.

Wheaton 17.3% win %.

https://hansenratings.github.io/2025%20Round%204.html

Also, interesting to note D3football.com has the Wheaton-UWRF game not starting until 2PM CT, which is out of the norm as I thought all games were supposed to start at noon local time.  Very cool though that they are spreading them out so people can watch more of each game.

Quote from: hazzben on December 07, 2025, 11:55:13 PM

Quote from: robertgoulet on December 07, 2025, 09:40:13 PM

Quote from: hazzben on December 07, 2025, 09:52:02 AMWe need to see what the post-blaha era brings. But I said to my brother yesterday, UWRF feels a little like 2003 SJU. A very good team, with a transcendent player, and a feeling of almost inevitability. That Mount team was also regarded like this NCC team. Supposedly the best ever and unbeatable.
 

Quote from: hazzben on December 07, 2025, 11:55:13 PM

Quote from: robertgoulet on December 07, 2025, 09:40:13 PM

Quote from: hazzben on December 07, 2025, 09:52:02 AMWe need to see what the post-blaha era brings. But I said to my brother yesterday, UWRF feels a little like 2003 SJU. A very good team, with a transcendent player, and a feeling of almost inevitability. That Mount team was also regarded like this NCC team. Supposedly the best ever and unbeatable.
 

Not sure who is saying NCC is the best ever and unbeatable...certainly not coming from NCC fans. Most of us realize that the team took a pretty sizable step back after last season, especially on offense.

I wasn't clear, I was meaning to say "best ever Mount team." That said ...

Logan's metric's earlier this year had NCC as the 5th highest since 1997, but all 4 above them achieved their peak in the post-season. Higher than peak 2022 NCC in Rd 4 and peak 2024 NCC in week 7. Even more interesting now that I'm looking back at the list, they are just ahead of 2003 Mount Union Rd 4.

Logan's regular season only list has NCC with the highest ever regular season rating.

Bringing this post over to the CCIW board, it is interesting to note that now NCC isn't even the highest team rated left in the field.  UWRF has surpassed them this week.

https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1997407900008931713?s=20

Congrats to both Mark Forcucci and Thomas Skokna for being named Gagliardi semifinalists!

https://www.d3football.com/notables/2025/12/gagliardi-semifinalists-announced

Quote from: GusD on December 05, 2025, 02:25:19 PM

Quote from: NCC2010 on November 26, 2025, 10:57:20 AMI'd also add Donovan McNeal to this list; his health is currently my biggest concern for NCC's playoff run. From what I'm hearing, we will not see him play this Saturday. Assuming they get past Hanover, we'll have to wait and see if he's able to return the following week against the Hope/UWL winner.

Don't know if dreams will come true or not, but McNeal is listed as the starter for NCC on the 2-deep vs. LaCrosse.
Should he not be able to go, the running attack will be in good stead with Allen, Rashid, and Williams.

He was listed as the starter last week as well and did not play.  The rest of the RB group is good, but they aren't on McNeal's level, IMO.