Quote from: fredfalcon on Today at 12:25:38 PMNCC2010--Maloney is a freshman and primarily a passer. And he's comparable to Blaha? Tough to believe. And unless I missed something, MU has one sophomore qb and all the rest are freshmen. Also tough to believe.

Never said he was comparable to Blaha. I said I think they are the best two QBs in the nation this season. Will not be shocked at all if Blaha is first team All-American and Maloney is second team.

Quote from: CardinalAlum on Yesterday at 09:39:02 PM

Quote from: NCC2010 on Yesterday at 04:01:18 PMNightmare scenario for NCC fans like myself with Johns Hopkins losing. Likely means UWRF in the quarters and if they get by them then a trip to Alliance in the semis...

UWRF showing as the 6 wouldn't match up with NCC. Road trip to Canton for the semis will be fun again!

When I posted this UWRF was ahead of of Bethel in NPI with Bethel's game not completed yet.

Bethel (the last opposing team to win in Naperville) as a potential quarterfinal possibly followed by a trip to Mount Union in the semis is worse than the potential Christopher Newport-Johns Hopkins scenario it would've been had Johns Hopkins not lost today, IMO

Thanks to the D3Datacast guys for updating the NPIs in real time it had me flipping around to different games rooting for certain outcomes. 

Quote from: USee on Yesterday at 04:09:05 PM

Quote from: NCC2010 on Yesterday at 04:01:18 PMNightmare scenario for NCC fans like myself with Johns Hopkins losing. Likely means UWRF in the quarters and if they get by them then a trip to Alliance in the semis...

Haha this actually made me audibly laugh when I read it. Nicely done USee

Quote from: CarollFan on Yesterday at 04:20:02 PM

Quote from: NCC2010 on Yesterday at 04:01:18 PMNightmare scenario for NCC fans like myself with Johns Hopkins losing. Likely means UWRF in the quarters and if they get by them then a trip to Alliance in the semis...

Looking at the play by play stats for JHU game looks like JHU missed a 30 yd FG at the end of regulation for the win. They got the ball first scored, xtra pt then F&M scored and got the 2 pt conversion.

It got blocked.

Quote from: emma17 on November 14, 2025, 05:05:05 PMNCC2010- I'm selfishly hoping NCC will face both great QB's. I get to relax and enjoy while you chew your nails, throw things at the tv, one moment cuss Spencer and the next hail him as the greatest ever.
Should be a lot of fun when it's all over.

Much to my dismay NCC is now slotted to face both River Falls and Mount Union, both BEFORE reaching the Stagg. Stressful 6 weeks ahead for me lol

Nightmare scenario for NCC fans like myself with Johns Hopkins losing. Likely means UWRF in the quarters and if they get by them then a trip to Alliance in the semis...

Quote from: emma17 on November 12, 2025, 06:40:39 PM

Quote from: hazzben on November 12, 2025, 03:35:26 PMOne forgotten piece about Cortland upsetting NCC was the reality NCC had zero confidence kicking a FG in the Stagg. They had an elite team with one glaring weakness. Multiple 4th downs in FG range where they had no choice but to go for the 1st rather than the points. That's not this year's version of NCC.

If I remember correctly, NCC had some key injuries as well. But to Cortland's credit, they put up 38 based on the grit and ability of the QB and some skilled receivers. Not much of a run game as I recall.
Maybe UWRF gets the same lightening in a bottle.

That 2023 defense NCC trotted out for the Stagg was simply too beat up.  Their 3 best players were all either out (1st team AA CB Antwain Walker, 1st team AA DT Dan Lester didn't play) or hurt and playing through it (CCIW DPOY Martin Egbo was a shell of himself).  UWL and Helterbrand put up 42 points on them 2 weeks prior. All credit to Cortland though they played awesome and I thought they outcoached NCC as well.  The kicking issues were a huge factor too. 

Blaha and Maloney from Mount Union are the 2 best QBs I have seen this season and would love to see how either matches up against this 2025 defense, which many alums/fans believe is NCC's best defense in program history. 

Selfishly hoping we only see 1 of those QBs and preferably in the Stagg.  What I can't figure out is how UWRF lost to that Oshkosh team.  I get its tough to win on the road in the WIAC but only scoring 17 points against them is probably the most puzzling result of the season.

Here are how the top 8 seeds look per Logan's NPI predictor tool.  I went ahead and assumed records for OOC opponents for all of the top 9 listed below, I think it should finish pretty close to this.  CNU could finish as high as 3 but needs Monmouth to lose to drop Wartburg down. UWRF and Bethel will be really close for 6-7, with UWRF OOC opponents Alma playing Adrian, Coe playing Central, both really tough games. 

1. Johns Hopkins 81.886 (avg NPI)
2. Mount Union 79.506
3. Wartburg 77.948
4. Christopher Newport 77.586
5. NCC 76.387
6. UWRF 75.36-74.15 (Alma, Coe results matter)
7. Bethel 74.94
8. Berry 71.82
9. John Carroll 70.9

All things considered I think this would be a great draw for NCC with Mount, Wartburg, UWRF & Bethel all on the opposite side of the bracket.

I'll take NPI over what the committee did with the bracket in 2023.  #5 seed is what NCC was last year as well so maybe it's a lucky spot for them...

If the bracket plays out

1. Johns Hopkins
2. Mount Union
3. Wartburg
4. Salisbury
5. NCC

I would consider that a pretty good draw for NCC, even with them potentially going on the road in the quarters and semis.

I like it a lot less if it plays out with Christopher Newport #3 and NCC traveling to #4 Wartburg in the quarters.

Quote from: CarollFan on October 29, 2025, 09:45:52 AMLooks like NCC is locked into the #4 spot unless teams ahead of them lose.

WashU is not a lock yet for the Isthmus bowl. Augie is the other team still in that race.

The 2 games this week that have the potential for being close are IWU @ Augie and Carthage @ NPU.

According to Logan's NPI tool, NCC is more likely to finish #5.  They will get jumped by the Christopher Newport/Salisbury winner unless a series of things happen. They need Salisbury to win that matchup, Oshkosh to finish 6-4 or better (doubtful IMO), and Washington and Lee to finish 6-4 or worse.  If Christopher Newport goes 10-0, NCC will not finish with a higher NPI (unless Oshkosh wins out).

Quote from: USee on October 28, 2025, 06:08:55 PMSeparately, what's with Peter Johnanik's jersey number? Half the time he is #54 (as he is listed on the roster) and half the time he wears #3. He seems to wear #3 when Wheaton has white or orange jersey's and #54 when they wear blue.

I've noticed this with NCC as well.  Cortez Jones has been wearing #50 in white and #52 in red.  Gabriel Gyorgy wears #20 in white and #24 in red.  It's hard enough to follow who is who when they have freshman dress and wear different #s too. David Ballard switched from #84 to #5 this week and freshman Chase Osborne was wearing #6. #6 was worn by starting safety Ethan Enriquz so I am wondering if his injury against WashU was season ending. 

Quote from: CarollFan on October 25, 2025, 07:46:18 PM

Quote from: GusD on October 25, 2025, 06:41:57 PMOther than a safety, the Cards scored in every conceivable way. In addition to rushing and passing TDs and field goals, they had 3 defensive touchdowns including a blocked punt for a TD, a fumble recovery for a TD, and a pick-six.

Carroll had a fumble recovery for a TD, pick 6 and blocked a punt for a safety.
Of course just when I think I can mention the additional ways Carroll scored,
there goes NCC doing even more...

They were 1 yard away from a 4th defense/special teams TD, Marey Roby got tripped up after a great return. Video below

https://x.com/NCCClassof88/status/1982158733925883958

Couple of health/injury updates for NCC...

Starting safety Ethan Enriquez and starting cornerback Jahmar Daniel both have not played since leaving the WashU game injured. Daniel was dressed on Saturday, so I assume he is close to being back. Backup safety Kyler Green got hurt during the Wheaton game and has not played since either, leaving sophomore transfer (Indiana Wesleyan) Gabriel Gyorgy as the next man up at safety. I think at some point we will see last year's starting safety, Kenny Rutherford, return as well. He tore his Achilles against Wheaton last season.

On offense, not sure if it is a health thing or what, but starting RG John Golden routinely leaves the game for backup Alex Knaperek for a few series in the first half of most games.  Also, thought it was notable that freshman wide receiver David Ballard III got a schemed shovel pass early in the game last week. He blocked a punt on special teams as well. He has been terrific in the JV games, and the coaching staff is really excited about him in the future.

Last note: when was the last time a player was All-American on defense one season and then All-American on offense the next season, or vice versa? I think Cortez Jones has a real shot at it, whether it be this season or next at right tackle.

Quote from: Cardinal773 on October 15, 2025, 12:31:16 PMIt's time to make peace with the facts: The Cards are going to be on the road just like in 2023.  #1stWorldProblems

I wouldn't go that far...they were the #5 overall seed just last year and didn't have to travel due to higher seeded teams losing.  Same can easily happen again this year.

Quote from: CarollFan on October 14, 2025, 10:34:51 PMI think one thing holding NCC back when they are chasing these other top teams for playoff seed is NCC has 6 home games this year. That's not necessarily a good thing with this current NPI formula. Road wins against inferior teams can end up with higher game NPI's than home wins against better teams.

It's better for your NPI to beat the best teams you're playing on the road.
I wouldn't be surprised if WashU and Carroll away games turn out to be the top 2 game NPI's for NCC

Having Oshkosh this year instead of Aurora last year will definitely be a difference.  Having 9-1 Aurora means more for NPI than a likely 6-4 or 5-5 Oshkosh, even if Oshkosh's SOS blows away that of Aurora's last year.  Would also help NCC if there is a clear top 3 in the conference, meaning Wheaton 8-2, WashU 8-2, Augie 7-3 as opposed to WashU or Augie losing some games and finishing 6-4 or worse like how the conference played out last year. 

Quote from: Cardinal773 on October 12, 2025, 07:15:06 PMHow might the UWO loss impact NC's playoff seeding?  We lucked out not having to travel last year, but a lot of that was thanks to Springfield and Susquehanna knocking out the top seeds.

Logan Hansen has created a tool where you can see how Oshkosh's final record will effect NCC's NPI. 

https://loghan.shinyapps.io/hansen-ratings-diii-football-season-simulation-distributions/

Based on going through the teams with a shot at being undefeated, his model has the following possible final NPI final calculations:

1. UWL 9-0,  NPI average = 82.645
2. Johns Hopkins 10-0, NPI avg = 81.871
3. Mount Union 10-0, NPI avg = 78.95
4. Christopher Newport 10-0, NPI avg = 77.61
5. Wartburg 10-0, NPI avg = 77.601
6. NCC 10-0, NPI avg = 77.218


All other undefeated teams would slot in below NCC in average NPI based on what I have looked at.  The above would basically be worst case scenario, as NCC would be on the road at Alliance in the quarter finals. 

NCC fans should be rooting for UWL to lose at least one game and for Christopher Newport to lose to Salisbury.  I don't see John Hopkins & Mount losing with what's left on their schedules and Wartburg could lose to Central, but a 10-0 Central would slide right in where Wartburg is listed above. 

If Oshkosh goes undefeated the rest of the way, NCC avg NPI would raise to 78.4.  If Oshkosh finishes with 4 losses, NCC NPI drops all the way down to 76.88 on average.  5 losses = 76.124, which is still very possible since Oshkosh has LaCrosse, Whitewater, and Platteville all still on its schedule.