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Messages - timmyturtle

#1
That and it occurred on 4th down which meant possession had changed, any other down and its first down game over
#2
Saw it and it was awesome...wife came down and asked why I was still up (it was like 10:30pm)...said "Quinn is playing",  she just smiled.  Don't even know the kid, just thinks it's super cool 8-)
#3
Quote from: cubs on November 12, 2023, 08:21:07 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on November 12, 2023, 05:27:36 PM
So it begins with Bethel. Fully expected UWW to be in a bracket with NCC or UWL.

Looks like 4/5 teams will be fighting to play Mount. Once again they can sleep walk to the finals
It sure gets old after awhile.... Literally five of the top six teams on one side while #2 MUC is all by themself...
Agreed, but not sure how they can fix it when over half of the D3 teams are east of Mt Union 
#4
It looks like the WIAC used the same criteria for determining Isthmus as it does for Pool A, they all were 1-1 against each other and 4-3 in conference so it goes to the team that hasn't been to the post season in the longest time?
#5
That's the way I understand it as well...once the 32 teams are set they basically "reseed" the best they can having to deal with the geography component
#6
Quote from: bleedpurple on November 06, 2023, 11:33:36 AM
So....

If Whitewater beats Eau Claire and receives an NCAA bid and...

If Oshkosh beats River Falls and Platteville beats Stout, who goes to the Isthmus Bowl?

I'm pretty sure it would be Oshkosh
#7
Quote from: emma17 on October 31, 2023, 12:16:59 PM
Quote from: timmyturtle on October 30, 2023, 08:37:58 PM
90% is low...100% is more accurate...if you can rank a two loss team ahead of a one loss team because they gave that team their loss then you should be able to rank a 3 loss team ahead of a 1 loss if they beat them...you would start down such a rabbit hole you'd be hard pressed to claw your way back to common sense. 
And you would have to believe that media panel at D3 would have WW ahead of LaCrosse if they lose and the coaches poll would have UWW ahead but the ranking committee would flip them?  No chance...here's my prediction, the loser of LaCrosse River Falls doesn't make the tournament, they aren't taking 3 WIAC teams is my guess

Wow- 100%. That's like... well, that's like something very certain. I can't go there when you're dealing with human beings.
I admit I'm likely more worried about the head to head viewpoint I believe many hold. If I put myself in the head to head camp, I can easily justify picking a 2- loss team over a 1- loss team if the -2 beat the -1. I think the next logical step for a head to head person is to ask- did both teams play the same schedule? UWW did not play HSU, but both played UMHB. Would a head to head voter consider the HSU margin of victory over UMHB as support for UWL?
Currently the D3 poll has UWL ahead of UWW, with equal records. This at least tells me 100% and 90% and even 70% are a bit over confident.

It's entirely possible I'm wrong, certainly wouldn't be the first time, but IF UWL loses to UWRF I just don't see how they could be ranked ahead of UWW in the regional rankings using the criteria set forth by the committee.  The committee chair is on record saying he basically wants all criteria to be given significant consideration (not the exact words I'm sure, but close enough to the spirit of the process). SOS (favors UWW), wins over regionally ranked teams UWW 3-1, UWL 1-2, head to head favors UWL, total record UWW 9-1 UWL 8-2 but as far as the committees concerned 6-2...all this assumes UWL loses to UWRF and UWW wins out.  That's 4 criteria....3 for UWW and 1 for UWL.  I just don't believe you can have a weaker SOS, lose more games, have a losing record against ranked opponents but beat someone head to head and argue head to head trumps ALL that other stuff.  We will see soon enough:)
#8
Now that's a discussion with some teeth, lots to pour over there...ST Johns SOS has to be higher I would guess and I'm thinking LaCrosse's winning % takes a hit from those D2 game's...but LaCrosse has a big feather with common opponent win over Whitewater, but that Trinity win for St Johns probably gives them more wins against regionally ranked teams...interesting question Bleed, interesting
#9
90% is low...100% is more accurate...if you can rank a two loss team ahead of a one loss team because they gave that team their loss then you should be able to rank a 3 loss team ahead of a 1 loss if they beat them...you would start down such a rabbit hole you'd be hard pressed to claw your way back to common sense. 
And you would have to believe that media panel at D3 would have WW ahead of LaCrosse if they lose and the coaches poll would have UWW ahead but the ranking committee would flip them?  No chance...here's my prediction, the loser of LaCrosse River Falls doesn't make the tournament, they aren't taking 3 WIAC teams is my guess
#10
If RF beats LaCrosse and we have a 3 way tie and RF gets the AQ, there is no way to reasonably argue that La Crosse should be regionally ranked ahead of UWW, you would have to sell your soul to the "head to head is the only thing that counts" argument which opens the door for Hardin Simmons to walk right through if they lose to Mary Hardin.  Additionally, there is no way La Crosse stays ranked ahead of UWW if they lose to River Falls, head to head obviously counts when you both have the same number of losses, more losses matter more than head to head.
#11
I'm guessing UWRF has now become UHMB's biggest fan, if Mary Hardin loses to Hardin Simmons, UWRF signature win just became a 6-4 team who would be out of the top 25, not sure a 2 loss UWRF makes it under those conditions.  Heck I'm not sure any 2 loss WIAC team makes it, I would think a loss for UWL or UWW would put some strain on their resumes as well.  With only 4 at large spots teams like Wheaton, John Carrol, loser of Mullenburg/Johns Hopkins, even Berry if they don't lose again are all going to be strong contenders for the 3 remaining spots if the WIAC gets one of the 4 with a one loss conference runner-up.
#12
Quote from: colinsteinke on October 16, 2023, 02:14:04 PM
Quote from: emma17 on October 16, 2023, 12:44:00 PM
My thoughts on 3 teams.
If UWL and UWW win out, it seems a lock the WIAC has two playoff teams. In that scenario, and assuming UWRF wins all remaining games except UWL, they are the 2- loss team in consideration. If UMHB wins out (defeating HSU), that puts UWRF in a strong position I would think.
If UWW and UWRF win out, and if UMHB wins out, I think UWL is in a tough spot if they finish with only 2 losses.

To make any of the above possible, all 3 teams have to get through the remainder of the WIAC schedule unscathed, which will be a real challenge.

I hate UW0 as much as the next guy...but do we think they have a shot at knocking off UWRF or UWL?

sure...Platteville almost did
#13
Quote from: bleedpurple on September 10, 2023, 05:01:15 PM
Quote from: timmyturtle on September 10, 2023, 02:34:44 PM
Quote from: fredfalcon on September 10, 2023, 12:21:26 PM
Now that Trinity beat UMHB 35-15, a WW win in Texas looks quite likely. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 20 point win for the Hawks. I hope so, because I want see two unbeaten teams when WW visits RF.
I would say the chances of both teams being undefeated 3 weeks from now are less than 50%, especially considering La crosse and Oshkosh both lost...the path to the playoffs for both those teams now goes through Whitewater

Not following.  How in the world do losses by La Crosse and Oshkosh affect the chances of UW-W and UW-RF being undefeated when they meet?

Sorry Bleed just saw you responded....I guess I was just saying that desperate teams are more dangerous, and while desperate is an overstatement at this point, those are both excellent teams with playoff aspirations and I can't envision a scenario where a 3 loss team gets in from the WIAC, so they will ultra motivated was my point
#14
Quote from: fredfalcon on September 10, 2023, 12:21:26 PM
Now that Trinity beat UMHB 35-15, a WW win in Texas looks quite likely. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 20 point win for the Hawks. I hope so, because I want see two unbeaten teams when WW visits RF.
I would say the chances of both teams being undefeated 3 weeks from now are less than 50%, especially considering La crosse and Oshkosh both lost...the path to the playoffs for both those teams now goes through Whitewater
#15
I'm guessing it must be, it certainly helps to have that kid at QB.  And as long as the success rate falls within whatever tolerance parameters the coaches are comfortable with, I assume they are going to keep doing it.