Quote from: Kuiper on November 17, 2025, 12:08:38 AMSweet 16 NPI recap.  Top 7 NPI seeds all make it, but it breaks down after that.  Only actual outliers, though, are Rowan and Messiah, neither of which would have made it if conference AQs did not exist.

Tufts (#1) v. Messiah (#107)
Conn College (#7) v. Bowdoin (#9)

Augsburg (#2) v. Cortland (#18)
Wash U (#10) v. Trinity (#12)

St. Olaf (#3) v. Williams (#17)
Macalester (#6) v. Wheaton (MA) (#21)

Lynchburg (#4) v. Dickinson (#22)
Emory (#5) v. Rowan (#32)

Not really the case as if AQs didn't exist Profs still would have been most likely a two seed in a region similar to what played out as the #32 of 64 teams. Great effort by the Profs yesterday in difficult conditions.

I am once again posting with a question for those who understand the NPI calculus far better than I, even though I geek out every day. Once again I see something on Rowan's NPI that I can't find a comp for anywhere else. Their awful tie with Alvernia (outshot them 37-3, tie 1-1) is now listed with a net NPI of 20.542. I, for the life of me, can't figure out how this can be right and have looked for other instances of partial net NPI and found zero. Looked at teams with similar records (W&L), good teams with crap ties (Amherst's tie with Suffolk), teams with tons of ties (Haverford) and can't find anything like this. So a plea for help again as I selfishly hope my kids can play in NCAAs lol. Right now only scenario I see for Profs to get at-large is win v Stockton and loss on PK's (recorded as tie) v Montclair in final.

I am hoping some of the NPI crunchers can help me here. Rowan is 11-3-4 and it is the only team I can find with 10+ wins for which there are no results listed as having 0.0 Net NPI. Can someone explain the 10+ win threshold and how it works? I can't figure out the calculation as there is definitely some adjustment that takes place and perhaps this is why they don't have any 0.0 Net NPI results. I am assuming this can't be a mistake.

They said on the broadcast that it hadn't happened since 1987. I still think Messiah is quite formidable and will be reckoned with by season's end. Some of the freshmen were quite impressive v Rowan.

I would frame membership into the NJAC as a fairly big feather and step up for New Paltz. Not sure why they would blare the horns about the first full-fledged expansion in 43 years and then renege for a much lesser conference competitively.

SUNY New Paltz is moving to the NJAC in 26-27. It was announced last summer.

https://njacsports.com/news/2024/7/2/general-suny-new-paltz-to-become-a-full-member-of-the-njac-in-2026-27.aspx

Epic battles Falconer. In 1993 we (Etown) played Messiah three times in two weeks. If my memory serves me right (and it may not): won 1-0 in regular season, won conference final one week later 2-1 (DeSales coach George Crampton chips the keeper with 14 secs left in match), then Steve Mott broke our hearts in the mud in 3OT the following weekend (yes, that's right triple OT) to beat us 2-1 in the NCAA second round.

Thanks so much for doing this!

I should couch that statement that I don't rate Hopkins. I don't rate them as highly as others. They are all very good on the ball, but their back line is nowhere near as good as years past and susceptible to turnovers when pressed unlike years past when they would slice up opponents who pressed. They have very technical players but simply don't often get dangerous. It's a fascinating system of play however.

2-2 a fair result? Please. Mary Washington was dominant and unlucky. See the box score. I don't rate Hopkins like others and watched them live against Muhlenberg, who had the better of chances in that match and the Mules are still figuring things out. For 20 minutesat end of 1H they peppered JHU in the best stretch I've seen for a Mules team in the past four year against JHU (and that includes two CC title matches). I just don't understand the love for F&M and Hop on this board. Way over the top. UMW was 2-3 goals better last night. They are REALLY good.

Lots of Hopkins and F&M love on here @EasyGoer. Get used to it. Dips have three ties including 0-1-2 Lynchburg. Granted they may be here by the end of the year, not now. Hopkins 2-2 gets handled by Rowan, who lost to Salisbury, but still at 11? Centennial looks like it's gonna be a great race again this year. Swat and Dickinson off to great starts and Wash will figure things out. But we're commenting about it, right? So great discussion starter. Go Mules!

I concur. This is not the Prem and this makes it way more difficult for committee members to distinguish teams on the bubble. Golden goal victories are fantastic moments which can be memory makers, especially for some programs who will never sniff the tournament, etc. The most valid argument against is the extended time, especially for midweek matches with long bus rides. The wear and tear argument is bunk when the average D3 roster now has to exceed 30.

Muhlenberg

Illinois Wesleyan takes away an at-large bid tonight. Quite a comeback and quote a tourney run.

Also think Otterbein perhaps should be included in that bubble list?