Next up: Lebanon Valley

The Dutchmen do not have a single out-of-conference opponent that finished in the top 100 of NPI last year. Their toughest game may be at home against Albright College on December 3. They also travel to Stevenson on November 11 and Muhlenberg (PA) on December 6.

Half of the MAC Freedom schedules have been posted. First up - Arcadia.

The Knights have four out-of-conference opponents who finished among the top 80 in NPI last year and three of those games happen during an eight-day stretch in November.

On November 12, they'll host Gwynedd Mercy. On November 14, they will travel to Chester, PA to face Washington & Jefferson on the first day of the Widener tournament. Five days later, on November 19, they will play at York (PA). The other top 80 opponent is Wilkes, which will travel to Glenside on December 14, in the final game for the Knights before the two-week break.

Stretch4's post nailed the key points, as usual. I love his insights.

For all the talk of Redding's offense (which deserves every bit of credit), the key to DelVal's late season run was its team defense. In their last eight games, only one opponent shot better than 40% from the field. Stevens led the league in three-pointers per game and 3PT% for the season. Entering the title game, the Ducks were 15-0 when holding opponents to 64 or fewer points but could not overcome such poor shooting yesterday. Their starting guards, who shoot 40% from distance, were just 4 for 20. Despite that, they had a clean look to win the game and the ball didn't bounce their way.

I would have liked to see Stevens' best defensive unit on the floor together a whole lot more. By my count, they had seven defensive possessions as a group - one in the first half and six in the final 3:30. Here is what DelVal did against them:

Turnover
Turnover
Missed layup
Turnover
Turnover
Breakaway dunk
Game-winner

For the game, that group outscored DelVal 10-4 in five minutes. It is not clear to me why they did not get more time as a unit. Redding had no 3's and no FT's against them.

Congratulations to Coach Kaba, who ought to be coach of the year based on his team's performance. DelVal hosts Misericordia on Wednesday night in what should be a fantastic semifinal. Arcadia heads to Hoboken to face Stevens in the other semi.

Redding had a great game. Really fun to watch and certainly among the top 10 players in the league this year. He can light it up.

Your observation provides more evidence of why the deep reserves should not have been on the floor. When they were, Redding scored 24 points in less than 16 minutes. The freshman and sophomore from Stevens could simply not stay with him.

When some combination of the top 7 for Stevens were defending, with Goodall handling much of the assignment vs Redding, he was limited to less than one point per minute (23 in 24+). Still blazing but a significant drop from what he produced against the younger, shorter guards. A review of the game tape shows he got very little against Goodall.

What happened to Stevens?

In last night's game, the coaching staff inexplicably went way down the bench on two occasions (once each half) that turned out to be very costly. In those 8 and a half minutes of the game, with deep reserves getting time in a key contest, they were outscored 19-3. Details below.

Having built a 19-10 lead thanks to a 10-0 run, Stevens' staff inserted a first-year guard who entered the game with 18 turnovers in 63 minutes of playing time. They could have reinserted fifth-year starter Mike Goodall, who had been subbed out a couple of minutes before that. In just two minutes of playing time, the first-year guard turned it over and missed a 3, and suddenly it was 19-16 and the momentum had swung. He did not play again.

In the second half, the Ducks led 51-48 after a 12-2 run. Here, they opted to insert lightly used Loscalzo (instead of Leming) and even more lightly used Scott (instead of Coughlan) at the 13:06 mark.

In two and a half minutes of playing time, Scott committed two fouls, the Ducks turned it over three times, and they lost the lead because of a 5-0 run before sending Leming in to replace Scott. Notably, fifth-year starter Mike Goodall continued to sit while the run grew to 11-3, leaving the Ducks down 5 before he entered again.

Another two minutes passed without a Ducks point as Coughlan remained on the bench. He finally re-entered the game with the Ducks down 7 and less than seven minutes remaining. It was his first action of the second half, a stretch in which Stevens scored just 19 points in more than 13 minutes.

All told, in the 8 and a half minutes in which some combination of the 8th, 9th and 10th best guys were on the floor, the Ducks were outscored 19-3. In the other 31.5 minutes of the game, the Ducks outscored DelVal 69-59. Both the offense and the defense suffered considerably when Stevens went deep down its bench.

As postseason looms, I suspect they will shorten the bench, play guys who will not turn the ball over and take bad shots, and use their timeouts occasionally if one of the regulars needs a breather.

Arcadia and Stevens both lost last night. With the Knights' loss, the Ducks backed into clinching first place and will host one semifinal next Wednesday. There is now a four-way tie for second with Arcadia, Misericordia, DeSales and DelVal sitting at 7-6.

Arcadia has clinched a bid (although the MAC website does not yet indicate that). The Knights control their destiny for second place. A win at LebVal on Saturday secures home court for the semifinal. Beyond that, it is absolute chaos. I have tried to make sense of the tiebreakers. See below...

If Saturday's winners are...final seeding would be...

Arcadia, DeSales and Mis... (2) Arcadia; (3) DeSales; (4) Mis
Arcadia, DeSales and Kings... (2) Arcadia; (3) DeSales; (4) DelVal
Arcadia, DelVal and Mis... (2) Arcadia; (3) DelVal; (4) Mis
Arcadia, DelVal and Kings... (2) Arcadia; (3) DelVal; (4) DeSales
LebVal, DeSales and Mis... (2) DeSales, (3) Mis, (4) Arcadia
LebVal, DeSales and Kings... (2) DeSales; (3) Arcadia; (4) King's
LebVal, DelVal and Mis...(2) DelVal; (3) Mis; (4) Arcadia
LebVal, DelVal and Kings... (2) DelVal; (3) Arcadia; (4) King's


 

It appears to me that if DeSales wins at DelVal (and therefore sweeps the season series), it will own a tiebreaker over Misericordia (which split with DelVal this season) and earn the 3 seed, which probably means a trip to Arcadia a week from today.

That would have Mis heading to Stevens for the other semi-final.

So rare to see any publicity about one of the best leagues in D3.

If four teams make it, that might be as many as the CCIW and WIAC combined, depending on what Stevens Point does the rest of the way.

In any case, five of the top 63 teams play in this league. Strong games every week.

Home teams won both key games last night, leaving the Ducks at 8-3 and two games ahead of four teams at 6-5. Now riding a three-game losing streak, the Ducks visit King's on Saturday. A win there and they will still be in great shape for the top seed in the conference tournament given that their final game is at home against last place FDU-Florham.

Spellman and Maddison have seen their production tail off in the last three games, shooting a combined 36% from the field and contributing an average of just 17 points a game, down from 27 a game prior to this stretch. The big man has battled foul trouble that is limiting his minutes. The talented guard is logging considerable minutes, as he has all season, and may be showing some signs of fatigue as the season enters the stretch run.

With last night's win over Misericordia, Arcadia owns important tiebreakers and is positioned for the second seed if they can win at home vs DelVal on Saturday.

If Misericordia beats FDU-Florham on Saturday and DeSales knocks off LebVal, both would be 7-5 heading into their matchup next Wednesday. That game would likely decide who gets the 3rd seed.

A pair of big games tonight as teams jockey for seeds in the conference tourney.

Misericordia (6-4) goes on the road to Arcadia (5-5), trying to avenge an 86-79 loss to the Knights three weeks ago in the Cougars' home gym. On Saturday, Arcadia gave up 50 second-half points to King's and lost by double digits. A Knights win would give them a season sweep and an important tiebreaker should they finish the season tied with Misericordia in the MACF standings.

The Cougars have enjoyed an extremely friendly whistle in recent home games against conference teams, having shot 80 free throws combined against LebVal, Stevens, and Arcadia. In each of those games, the Cougars were outrebounded and outshot from the field, needing help at the charity stripe to stay in games. In road conference games, the Cougars average 16 free throws so they may need to improve on the glass and convert second chance points to stay in this one.

Elsewhere, DeSales (5-5) hosts Stevens (8-2), which has lost two straight and had its lead chopped to two games over Misericordia. Jack Spellman scored just 12 points in the last two contests and will need to get going tonight against a Bulldogs team that generally outrebounds its opponents and excels at defending without fouling. The Ducks won the first match-up of the season by 40 points in Hoboken on January 22.

Monday night update: Misericordia wins at home over LebVal to get to 6-4 in conference play.

Cougars shot 26 FTs. Visitors shot 10.

Another interesting week in the MACF, with several upsets creating a logjam in the middle of the standings.

First, Stevens has dropped two in a row after a 75-66 road loss to Misericordia yesterday, a game in which the Ducks appeared to be missing two of their top 8 players and one of their frontcourt starters was whistled for two fouls in the first 75 seconds of the game. The Cougars shot 29 free throws. The Ducks shot 12.

In the end, the Ducks could not overcome 21 turnovers that led to 19 Misericordia points. Big man Spellman was limited to just 3 shots, a performance eerily similar to their previous game against Misericordia on January 11. The Ducks (8-2) are now just two games ahead of Misericordia (5-4) in the loss column.

Five other teams have 5 losses, including Lebanon Valley, which will visit Misericordia in a make-up game on Monday. LVC lost to Delaware Valley yesterday but if they can bounce back on the road tomorrow, a remarkable six teams would be tied for second place at 5-5 with two weeks left in the regular season.

Our prediction is that Stevens finishes 10-4 or 11-3, with Misericordia at 9-5 and Arcadia and DeSales tied for third at 8-6. Because the Knights swept the season series with the Bulldogs, they would get the #3 seed and travel to Misericordia for a conference semi-final with DeSales heading to Hoboken in the other semifinal.

With Stevens carrying a three-game lead into the second half of the conference slate, there is not much suspense about the regular season champion and number 1 seed, but plenty of questions remain:

(1)    Who will join Stevens in the conference tournament?
DeSales ought to secure the second seed, probably with a record of 10-4 or 9-5, but three teams will battle through the final weekend for the last two places in the conference tournament.
The February 5 matchup between Misericordia and Lebanon Valley may go a long way toward determining who finishes third and travels to DeSales for a semifinal three weeks later. The loser of that game might be destined for a fourth-place finish and a February 26 trip to Hoboken. Arcadia has lost four of its last five and will travel to DeSales and Stevens next. That back-to-back might leave them at 3-6 in conference. Can they win five straight to finish the regular season and sneak in? Misericordia visits the Knights on February 12 and the Cougars travel to Lebanon Valley to conclude the conference slate ten days later.

(2)    Can the Ducks land a Pool C bid, if needed? Where are they likely to be seeded in the NCAA Tournament?
Stevens has won 8 straight games, including 7 games by 15 or more. The Ducks are now 15th nationally in D3 Datacast's efficiency rankings, with a top 10 defense and a top 60 offense. All three of their losses came to teams ranked in Massey's Top 100.
More importantly, they are 48th in today's NPI rankings and projected to rise to 41st before selections are made for the NCAA Tournament. That would put them right on the cusp of a Pool C bid if they failed to win the MAC Freedom title.
A record of 23-4 ought to be good enough to secure the bid. That would mean going undefeated in the conference regular season. If they finish 22-5, they are likely to be left out, unless DeSales and Misericordia separate from the rest of the league and boost their own NPIs north of 53 before the end of the season. The Ducks would also benefit from Catholic, Hamilton and Middlebury continuing to win, so that those losses become less punitive.
They will most likely be an 11 or 12 seed, pitting them against a top 25 team in the first round. It is quite possible they see either Catholic or Hamilton when the bracket is announced.

(3)    Who is likely to land on the all-conference list?
Jack Spellman is the best player on the best team and clearly the favorite to win player-of-the-year. As Stretch4 noted in an earlier post, the senior has career totals exceeding 1000 points and 1000 rebounds. He also leads the conference in blocked shots.
Stevens sophomore Kyle Maddison is 8th in the conference in scoring and 5th in assists. His 34 steals and 54 3-pointers are the best in the league.
Caleb Gibbs of DeSales has been consistently good, averaging 17 points and 8 rebounds per game. He is the only league player to rank in the top 5 in both categories.
Kevin Lazdowsky of Misericordia and Evin Timochenko of Lebanon Valley are the most likely candidates for the last two spots.

A wild night in the MACF on Wednesday.

At the top of the slate, Stevens hammered DeSales 92-52 and sent a message to the rest of the league (and perhaps some top 25 voters as well) in blowing out the team regarded as a contender for the title. The Ducks were dominant in every single phase of the game and showed why they were favored to win the league. The loss dropped the Bulldogs to 2-3 in conference but they ought to be in good shape to battle for the second seed as they will be favored in every game the rest of the way, with the exception of the Ducks' visit on February 12.

Misericordia also dropped to 2-3 after a home loss to Arcadia. The Knights, now 3-2 and in a tie for second, trailed by as many as 13 but fought their way back and won with four players in double figures.

DelVal turned the ball over just seven times against King's but made only 14 of 37 shots inside the arc and dropped to 3-2 in league play. The schedule toughens dramatically and the Aggies may end up on the outside looking in when the conference tourney matchups are finalized.

Was the biggest surprise of the night in Madison, NJ, where FDU-Florham knocked off Lebanon Valley for its first win in conference play? LVC will need to right the ship against Arcadia on Saturday if it wants to remain in the hunt for a spot in the postseason.