A lot of non-answers in that interview...

I think that the most interesting aspect was that he said they had an invitation to the MWC since 2022. From my understanding, they did not alert the league office to their intention to leave the conference until the day prior to the press release. They are also not leaving the conference in the way agreed upon in the bylaws, and thus will be paying additional fees to leave in such a hasty manner. It makes you wonder why they sat on this idea for so long, but now feel the need to rush out of the league.

Quote from: HansenRatings on June 03, 2025, 02:09:55 PMWith the way NPI works, if you're trying to make the playoffs, scheduling a team that's likely to have a below-average NPI isn't going to give you a boost - they're likely to get "dropped" from the calculation. So picking up a lot of the MWC's former non-con games against UMAC/NACC/bottom-feeder CCIW/MIAC schools isn't going to do us any good. Now, not having Luther drag down everyone's cumulative NPI will help, though.

What does taking Luther out of the SOS numbers and replacing them with a completely average 5-5 team do for the conference? Would it elevate the NPI numbers that much?

Love the math Logan!

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on June 03, 2025, 12:07:01 PMIn terms of where the conference go from here? I do not think that the league is going to start looking for a replacement for Luther in the short term. Having 9 teams never really made sense from a scheduling standpoint, and having one team have a bye week for week 11 was never ideal. Taking Luther off the schedule should raise the SOS of the entire conference. Each team will be able to schedule 3 nonconference games, which should also help in the world of NPI (assuming teams can win these games). While I'm sad to see Luther go, this may be a net positive for the conference.   

This being said, where will these extra nonconference games come from? Well, the obvious answer is the WIAC. I'm sure those teams are very happy to see Luther go, and more ARC teams desperate for nonconference matchups. Will most of the conference be willing to step up to this challenge? Wartburg/Coe/ud/Central have scheduled multiple of these teams in the past and do not seem fazed by this challenge.

Moving farther away, the UMAC teams are always looking for non-conference games, but at that point, the league should have just fought to keep Luther in the league. The next closest leagues that play at least 3 nonconference games are the MIAA and the HCAC. The MIAA has produced some good teams recently, but also has some teams that the bottom half of the conference could play some competitive games with. The HCAC has not quite produced the same level of higher-end teams the MIAA has produced recently, but I think that the bottom half of the ARC would fare well against most of the conference and that the HCAC teams would eat up some of the needed nonconference games.

With all this being said, I'm sure that the SCIAC/NWC/ASC/SCAC teams will also be more than willing to pick up the phone if any of the ARC teams call. Central made the trip to Cal Lutheran last season, so these types of trips are not out of the question. I don't think ARC teams will want to make these a mainstay on their schedules, but this could provide some more national matchups for the teams in the conference.

There are also some options out on the East Coast, but most of the ARC teams have not ventured in that direction in the past when looking for games.

Quote from: Pat Coleman on June 03, 2025, 11:23:20 AMLuther will be leaving the ARC after this upcoming season:
https://d3sports.com/notables/2025/06/luther-leaves-arc-for-mwc

WOW. I did not see this coming whatsoever. Losing a founding member of a conference is not something you will ever think will happen. The ARC will hate to lose a member who has been around for 100+ years.

All that being said, I do understand the move on Luther's part. The MWC is a league that prioritizes academics above athletics. If Luther feels that this fits them better than the current makeup of the ARC, then they will do much better competing among the schools that they consider their peers. I imagine that they will immediately compete for conference titles in many sports in the MWC, and they should be able to tally a couple of wins (?) in football over the first few seasons in the league to get that program off the ground.

In terms of where the conference go from here? I do not think that the league is going to start looking for a replacement for Luther in the short term. Having 9 teams never really made sense from a scheduling standpoint, and having one team have a bye week for week 11 was never ideal. Taking Luther off the schedule should raise the SOS of the entire conference. Each team will be able to schedule 3 nonconference games, which should also help in the world of NPI (assuming teams can win these games). While I'm sad to see Luther go, this may be a net positive for the conference.   

Quote from: HansenRatings on May 27, 2025, 04:02:34 PMI was bored today, so I decided to do some digging. This is using my team ratings (which is actually a weighted average of 3 different models).

If you don't mind me asking, which three models do you use, and how do you weight them?

Thanks for the charts Logan! I do think that the trend is something to note, as the top of the conference is separating itself from the bottom of the league. I would assume that I am one of the younger people on this board, as I have only followed the conference for about 8 years now. But in those 8 years, it has felt like the haves (Central/Wartburg/Coe/ud) and the have-nots (the rest) have not done much flip-flopping. Now I think this is pretty normal for most football conferences, as we typically don't see teams going from worst to first in this particular sport. But it does beg the question, how much longer will this go on for, and what does one of the teams in the have-nots group need to do to break through? I would love someone to hear the opinions of those who are a bit more seasoned on this board on the matter, as they have probably seen and know more about the history of the league.

Quote from: HansenRatings on May 08, 2025, 11:55:03 AMAnyways, here's the projections table updated with everyone's schedule.

School		SOS		Proj. W-L	Conf. W-L
Wartburg		0.545		8.7-1.3	7.3-0.7
Central		0.546		8.0-2.0	6.6-1.4
Coe		0.488		7.5-2.5	6.4-1.6
Dubuque		0.586		5.6-4.4	5.4-2.6
Loras		0.564		3.2-6.8	2.8-5.2
Simpson		0.505		3.8-6.2	2.6-5.4
Nebraska Wesleyan		0.503		2.7-6.3	2.3-5.7
Buena Vista		0.510		3.0-7.0	2.3-5.7
Luther		0.480		0.9-9.1	0.3-7.7

I do find it very intriguing that the bottom 5 teams in the conference are projected to have less than 3 wins each. The basement of the ARC could really use some nonconference wins to help boost up the overall SOS of the conference and also the national opinion of all the teams in it. With all 5 of these teams being projected less than 3 wins (I highly doubt Simpson will go under this based on what they were able to improve on last season) it tells me that instead of the floor being raised, the teams in the bottom 5 are more so content in simply trying not to finish last then really trying to break into the upper tier of the conference.

Quote from: HansenRatings on May 08, 2025, 11:55:03 AMWith Dubuque and BVU going on the road to Benedictine, that means BenU has 6 home games. Must be nice. BenU also favored against each of the two (-3.5 vs. Loras & -9.8 vs. BVU).

I can't sit idly by while you miscontrude my favorite football team with the neerdowells up the street from us Logan 

https://duhawks.com/sports/football/schedule

As previously said, the Duhawks will get the Flying Dutchmen at home and then travel to BenU in week 2 for a night game.

Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on March 14, 2025, 07:24:51 PMLuther has posted their schedule with noncon games against Millikin and Martin Luther. Millikin is a bottom tier CCIW team, they went to 0-10 last season, and Martin Luther, a UMAC team who went 6-4 last year, although against a lack luster schedule. Hopefully, Luther can start making some things happen in the nonconference season to help bring up the bottom of the conference.

Although it hasn't been posted, I'm told that Loras is continuing with their noncon series against Hope and Benedictine this year. Hope was a fantastic team last year, winning the MIAA and making it to the second round of the playoffs. Benedictine went 5-5 in the NAAC last season and has played in some incredibly competitive games with the Duhawks over the last few seasons. Last year's game against BenU was very fun to watch, and it was down to the wire. The game against Hope was not productive for either side, and I'm not sure what led to renewing the contract, if I'm being quite frank. I'm sure that Hope would like to get an easy win in the NPI era and Loras feels that it is a good test against a good team. We shall see... 

https://kohawkathletics.com/sports/football/schedule

Coe has released their schedule. The Kohawks play their longtime rival Cornell to start off the season in which has been an incredibly one-sided affair in the 21st century. Their second noncon game is at UW-River Falls who went 7-3 last year with lots of high-quality wins. This should be a step up in competition, even from playing UW-Eau Claire last year, in which the Kohawks barely beat them in OT. UWRF beat UWEC 71-14 last year for context.

https://athletics.central.edu/sports/football/schedule

Central has also officially posted their schedule with noncon games against Illinois Wesleyan and Randolph Macon. We have already discussed the Randolph Macon game on these boards, but it should be a fun matchup. Illinois Wesleyan is back on the Dutch's schedule this season following a Central 49-14 win in 2024. IWU hired a new coach this year following the retirement of long-time head coach Norm Eash, and the program is looking for a resurgence.

Driving on I-25 north of Denver I saw a car in front of me with a Colorado license plate, an Atlanta Braves logo sticker, a Tufts University sticker, and a Washington University sticker on the tailgate.

I was left with more questions than answers...

Luther has posted their schedule with noncon games against Millikin and Martin Luther. Millikin is a bottom tier CCIW team, they went to 0-10 last season, and Martin Luther, a UMAC team who went 6-4 last year, although against a lack luster schedule. Hopefully, Luther can start making some things happen in the nonconference season to help bring up the bottom of the conference.

Although it hasn't been posted, I'm told that Loras is continuing with their noncon series against Hope and Benedictine this year. Hope was a fantastic team last year, winning the MIAA and making it to the second round of the playoffs. Benedictine went 5-5 in the NAAC last season and has played in some incredibly competitive games with the Duhawks over the last few seasons. Last year's game against BenU was very fun to watch, and it was down to the wire. The game against Hope was not productive for either side, and I'm not sure what led to renewing the contract, if I'm being quite frank. I'm sure that Hope would like to get an easy win in the NPI era and Loras feels that it is a good test against a good team. We shall see... 

Quote from: doolittledog on March 03, 2025, 09:22:49 AMUD announces their new D Line coach.  Jon Zohlmann, a 2022 Central grad and spent the last 2 seasons as the D Line coach at Nebraska Wesleyan.  Former UD defensive line coach Rob Huberty is now the Defensive Coordinator at St. Norbert. 

https://athletics.snc.edu/news/2025/2/5/huberty-and-zweifel-join-football-staff.aspx

Coach Zweifel has also decided that he is not done coaching football as he will be joining Zohlmann at St. Norbert's.

Just picking up on this from another board but it looks like Central will be hosting Randolph-Macon next season. RMC was a national semifinalist two years ago and advanced to the second round last year. A very nontraditional matchup but should be exciting to see where one of the better teams in the conference stacks up against a good team from the east.

https://rmcathletics.com/sports/football/schedule/2025

As noted above Wartburg has released their schedule with their nonconference lineup being their yearly matchup with Monmouth and then traveling to Menomonie to play UW-Stout. The schedule sets up rather favorably for the defending champs in that they do not have to play back-to-back away games during conference play (this may be a new aspect of the conference schedule someone feel free to correct me) and not playing the other top 3 of the conference (Central/Coe/ud) in back to back weeks.

https://go-knights.net/news/2025/2/13/2025-wartburg-football-schedule-announced.aspx