East Texas Baptist 3 - Belhaven 1

ETBU keeps their hot streak alive and takes down the Blazers in Jackson, MS. Fairly level on total shots and shots on goal. The Tigers just more clinical. Took the lead in the 33' and never lost it.

Not a shocking result by any means BUT Howard Payne took a rare out of state trip to Pennsylvania for a pair of games and took down Penn St.-Berks 3-1 yesterday for just their second win in the last three seasons.

They take on Penn St.-Brandywine(#505) on Saturday.

For some context, HPU was #480 whereas PSB was #507 going into the matchup according to the rankings aggregator.

Remind me... When do the first round of in-season USC and NPI rankings typically post?

So odd, I wasn't tracking this game. SAA conference site had Trinity vs. Occidental today at CMS' campus. And somewhere else(can't find it again) listed the game being played at Azusa's campus.

I trust that Trinity will turn their slow start around...

Quote from: Kuiper on September 06, 2026, 02:37:08 PMUPSET Alert:

No stream for this game, but Redlands is up 1-0 on Trinity after a Bo Robertson goal in the 21st minute.  It's been a rainy day and field conditions may be difficult, but it sounds like a chippy game.  Zach Darmanyan and Cade Dougan each got yellow cards 20 seconds apart in the 13th minute.

UPDATE: 

HALF:  Redlands 1 - Trinity 0

Redlands is outshooting Trinity (although it collected some shots rebounds in a single attacking sequence), but it basically looms from the LiveStats like a game stuck in the mud.

UPDATE:  Redlands 1 - Trinity 1 (67th minute)

Trinity finally gets a goal in the 56th minute by Joey Perryman on an assist from Gabriel Romanenko to tie the game up.  Trinity's been pressing and seems to have tilted the table in its favor.

UPDATE:  Redlands 2 - Trinity 1 (87th minute)

Anders Beckton scores what could be the game-winner off a feed from Zach Darmanyan.

FINAL:  Redlands 2 - Trinity 1

Winless road trip for Trinity, which looked very different than it did against Texas Lutheran at home.  For year, Trinity has beaten up on SCIAC teams that it has invited to San Antonio, so turnabout is fair play.

I can't tell whether this means that CMS and Redlands are back, or Trinity is just is still adjusting to a post-Knutsen, post-Theiss world.

My guess is that none of these teams are true contenders at this point.

2 goalkeeping errors directly lead to the first 2 goals, then the starter was subbed at halftime. UMHB a little lucky to take the lead, but sealed the victory in second half with 2 quality goals in transition moments. Young roster adjusted well and weren't broken down too much by Concordia.

Quote from: Kuiper on September 02, 2026, 01:29:09 AMOther Region X games that caught my eye:

Mary Hardin-Baylor 4 - Concordia (TX) 0

That was a bit surprising.  UMHB went into half with a 2-0 lead and then exploded for two more in a less than two minute stretch in the second half.

Some schools (like Mary Hardin-Baylor) have moved their policy to be "no kickoffs before noon" on Sundays. Otherwise you're hamstrung if a weather related reschedule happens on a Saturday evening.

Quote from: Kuiper on October 19, 2025, 01:55:50 AMMary Hardin-Baylor 2 - Howard Payne 1

UMHB went out to a 2-0 lead at the half and then held on despite conceding a goal about a minute into the second half.  After tying Southwestern on Wednesday and beating HP 6-0 earlier in the season, UMHB may have taken them a bit lightly.

Snuck it out in the end despite outshooting HPU 19(13) - 4(3)... UMHB also locks up their 5th straight regular season title in the ASC. Unlike last season, this clinches hosting rights for the conference tournament.

And just as you were saying Kuiper... SCAC is wild tonight.

Austin College 1 - Colorado College 0 12' left in first half
Hendrix 1 - UST 0 at half

and 1 more for good measure

Schreiner 1 - Concordia 0 at half

Quote from: kansas hokie on October 13, 2025, 05:48:37 PMSo, did some quick calculations and it's not hard to find best/worst case scenarios using NPI. If you click on the ranking number, a pop-up shows you the data for each team. A team's NPI is the average of their "net NPI" scores.

You can then take the "loss value" and "win value" for each team left on a schedule to calculate a worst case and best case. Anything over 10 wins also allows teams to drop their worst NPI.

Now, we can't predict for conference tournaments which most have and those matches will change things, but there's enough to be able to see that some of the top teams from strong conferences (Tufts, Wesleyan, Williams, Emory, Brandeis) have essentially guaranteed an at-large bid for themselves. Teams like Augsburg and Lake Forest haven't but in reality, they will be in.

If anyone is particularly interested in best/worst case numbers for teams, post here and I'll run them.

Curious about Mary Hardin-Baylor. Could you calculate differences of winning out remaining conference schedule + differences of a W, L or D vs. Trinity?

Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 07, 2025, 10:40:35 PMTrinity and Southwestern are officially members of NCAA Region VI because that's where the SAA lands for soccer.   Same thing now happens in other sports like volleyball and probably just about any sport that has ten regions instead of six (football).    I guess someone needs to tell the USC.

Edit:  I pinged them on Xitter, we'll see if anything changes.

Interesting, I had not heard that. Not a new phenomenon, but the UAA and C2C span multiple regions. I suppose in those examples it's more than just 2 regions represented though.

First edition of 2025 NPI rankings for Region X. Strange that it currently has Trinity & Southwestern ranked in region VI. That has to be a typo, right? Posting an *adjusted* top 10 that includes both of them.


Southwestern            55.844      10-0-2
Trinity (TX)           55.838      9-1   
Colorado Col.           54.684      6-0-4
Mary Hardin-Baylor   54.421      9-1-2
Whitman                   53.406      7-0-2
St. Thomas (TX)      52.874      5-1-1
Whittier           52.124      6-1-2
Pomona-Pitzer           52.120      4-1-2
Concordia (TX)           51.787      5-2-3
Texas Lutheran           51.165      5-3-2

Quote from: Kuiper on October 02, 2025, 10:14:53 PMMary Hardin-Baylor 2 - Belhaven 1

Pretty even game.  UMHB went down very quickly on a goal in the first minute of regulation, but it clawed its way back with goals less than a minute before halftime and then again in the 53rd minute.  UMHB goes to 8-1-2 overall and plays ASC foe East Texas Baptist on Saturday (it may even be going there directly from this game and arriving a day early since it's on the way back to Belton, more or less).  Its biggest remaining tests may not come in conference, though, although games against Hardin-Simmons are always tough regardless of team records, but from its remaining non-conference games at Southwestern and at Trinity.

EDIT: I should add that under NPI, there is an unusual dynamic going on in Region X among Whitman, Colorado College, and UMHB.  At an early season round-robin at Colorado College, UMHB and Whitman tied 2-2, Whitman and Colorado College tied 2-2, and UMHB and Colorado College tied 0-0.  All three are in the lead for their conference titles and therefore should have a large number of wins and at least a couple of ties (half-wins) against high-ish NPI schools because of these early season ties in Colorado Springs.  That might not matter for those three schools if they each win their conference auto-bids, but it could help them if they don't.  Moreover, it could help other teams.  St. Thomas has beaten UMHB, which could be valuable if they are not the SCAC champion although UMHB has the toughest remaining schedule because it still plays Trinity and Southwestern.  Moreover, if Trinity and/or Southwestern do beat UMHB, that could give them an NPI boost too.   

Yes, the team went straight to Marshall from Jackson, MS. Might I add, UMHB is on a 6 game winning streak for the first time since 2022. This team has quite a bit more grit than the past couple of years. Curious how the first round of NPI will shake out, given what you said.

UMHB vs. Howard Payne

The Cru open conference play with a 6-0 win at home. 6 different goal scorers, 27 players used.

Was 2-0 at half but the game was never really close. Got the scoring started less than 2 minutes in and the HPU goalkeeper even registered 13 saves. UMHB move to 7-1-2 and have won 5 straight coming off of their only loss to UST.

Quote from: Kuiper on September 24, 2025, 06:12:49 PMFINAL:  Mary Hardin-Baylor 3 - Rhodes 2

Nice away win for UMHB, which has shown its ability to battle against teams in close games (e.g., ties against Colorado College and Whitman and a 2-1 win over Texas Lutheran).  Not sure why they scheduled a single away game at 11 am in Memphis, TN on a Wednesday, though, sandwiched between two home games on the Saturdays before and after this game.  I guess a ~600 mile drive isn't considered a big deal for a team from Texas.  In the game, the teams were tied 1-1 at the half, but Mary Hardin-Baylor scored just a few minutes after the start of the second half.  Rhodes tied it up again in the 56th, but UMHB scored the game winner in the 65th.  Mary Hardin-Baylor is now 6-1-2, with it's only loss being to St. Thomas

Part of the issue of having a 4 team conference... Struggling just to get enough games so you have to schedule more non-conference opponents and sprinkle them in midweek, even after conference play starts. Options are slim to find quality opponents outside of the norm; it's either games like @ Rhodes and @Belhaven or you're forced to look at JuCo's or NCCAA schools.

Quote from: Kuiper on August 10, 2025, 12:37:44 PMMcMurry

McMurry finished 4-13-1 in the SCAC in 2024, their first since moving from the ASC, where they will return in 2026.  A poor record, but double the win total of the year prior and tied for the second most wins since the pandemic.  In other words, expectations for men's soccer are all relative for McMurry.  The 2025 roster suggests things are particularly bleak though.  They had 32 on the roster in 2024 and currently only have 18 on the roster for 2025.  I thought maybe it was just a spring returners roster, but they have incoming freshman on it. If it is the complete roster for 2025, they'll have trouble just making it through the season with subs on the bench, so I'm guessing this is incomplete and they will at least have some more freshman joining the team.  Even then, they only have 9 sophomores listed, and 14 freshman were listed in the 2024 roster, so they clearly have had some roster melt.  Not very healthy for the team considering the university claimed to have record enrollment for the second year in a row last fall, with a 25% increase and topping 3,000 students.  Perhaps the fact that they lost their head coach and replaced him with the women's head coach taking over both teams led players to leave and hurt recruiting. 

Key Departures:

They didn't have a lot of "key" contributors last season, but they did lose some frequent senior starters such as midfielders Trey Castillo and Danny Chavez and defender Preston Stal.  More disturbing is they lost frequent starters who were freshman, such as GK Brandon Walker, D D'Mari Washington, and midfielder Landyn Snider.  They also apparently lost leading scorer, sophomore defender Anthony Licea

Key Returners:

They have a few regular starters returning.  Julian Trevino was a regular starter at defense and comes back for his sophomore year.  Dylan Christian also comes back as a senior midfielder and Jovanni Burnett as a sophomore midfielder.

Freshman:

They only have 3 listed on the roster right now.

Hearing that McMurry got their turf redone at Wilford Moore Stadium over the summer and shrunk their already tiny soccer field even further; quite a bit under NCAA minimums. So much so, there was a directive(unclear from where) that teams will not be forced to play there. Which must be true given that the only SCAC home games are Centenary and Austin College and they only have 5 total at home this season.