Some schools (like Mary Hardin-Baylor) have moved their policy to be "no kickoffs before noon" on Sundays. Otherwise you're hamstrung if a weather related reschedule happens on a Saturday evening.

Quote from: Kuiper on October 19, 2025, 01:55:50 AMMary Hardin-Baylor 2 - Howard Payne 1

UMHB went out to a 2-0 lead at the half and then held on despite conceding a goal about a minute into the second half.  After tying Southwestern on Wednesday and beating HP 6-0 earlier in the season, UMHB may have taken them a bit lightly.

Snuck it out in the end despite outshooting HPU 19(13) - 4(3)... UMHB also locks up their 5th straight regular season title in the ASC. Unlike last season, this clinches hosting rights for the conference tournament.

And just as you were saying Kuiper... SCAC is wild tonight.

Austin College 1 - Colorado College 0 12' left in first half
Hendrix 1 - UST 0 at half

and 1 more for good measure

Schreiner 1 - Concordia 0 at half

Quote from: kansas hokie on October 13, 2025, 05:48:37 PMSo, did some quick calculations and it's not hard to find best/worst case scenarios using NPI. If you click on the ranking number, a pop-up shows you the data for each team. A team's NPI is the average of their "net NPI" scores.

You can then take the "loss value" and "win value" for each team left on a schedule to calculate a worst case and best case. Anything over 10 wins also allows teams to drop their worst NPI.

Now, we can't predict for conference tournaments which most have and those matches will change things, but there's enough to be able to see that some of the top teams from strong conferences (Tufts, Wesleyan, Williams, Emory, Brandeis) have essentially guaranteed an at-large bid for themselves. Teams like Augsburg and Lake Forest haven't but in reality, they will be in.

If anyone is particularly interested in best/worst case numbers for teams, post here and I'll run them.

Curious about Mary Hardin-Baylor. Could you calculate differences of winning out remaining conference schedule + differences of a W, L or D vs. Trinity?

Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 07, 2025, 10:40:35 PMTrinity and Southwestern are officially members of NCAA Region VI because that's where the SAA lands for soccer.   Same thing now happens in other sports like volleyball and probably just about any sport that has ten regions instead of six (football).    I guess someone needs to tell the USC.

Edit:  I pinged them on Xitter, we'll see if anything changes.

Interesting, I had not heard that. Not a new phenomenon, but the UAA and C2C span multiple regions. I suppose in those examples it's more than just 2 regions represented though.

First edition of 2025 NPI rankings for Region X. Strange that it currently has Trinity & Southwestern ranked in region VI. That has to be a typo, right? Posting an *adjusted* top 10 that includes both of them.


Southwestern            55.844      10-0-2
Trinity (TX)           55.838      9-1   
Colorado Col.           54.684      6-0-4
Mary Hardin-Baylor   54.421      9-1-2
Whitman                   53.406      7-0-2
St. Thomas (TX)      52.874      5-1-1
Whittier           52.124      6-1-2
Pomona-Pitzer           52.120      4-1-2
Concordia (TX)           51.787      5-2-3
Texas Lutheran           51.165      5-3-2

Quote from: Kuiper on October 02, 2025, 10:14:53 PMMary Hardin-Baylor 2 - Belhaven 1

Pretty even game.  UMHB went down very quickly on a goal in the first minute of regulation, but it clawed its way back with goals less than a minute before halftime and then again in the 53rd minute.  UMHB goes to 8-1-2 overall and plays ASC foe East Texas Baptist on Saturday (it may even be going there directly from this game and arriving a day early since it's on the way back to Belton, more or less).  Its biggest remaining tests may not come in conference, though, although games against Hardin-Simmons are always tough regardless of team records, but from its remaining non-conference games at Southwestern and at Trinity.

EDIT: I should add that under NPI, there is an unusual dynamic going on in Region X among Whitman, Colorado College, and UMHB.  At an early season round-robin at Colorado College, UMHB and Whitman tied 2-2, Whitman and Colorado College tied 2-2, and UMHB and Colorado College tied 0-0.  All three are in the lead for their conference titles and therefore should have a large number of wins and at least a couple of ties (half-wins) against high-ish NPI schools because of these early season ties in Colorado Springs.  That might not matter for those three schools if they each win their conference auto-bids, but it could help them if they don't.  Moreover, it could help other teams.  St. Thomas has beaten UMHB, which could be valuable if they are not the SCAC champion although UMHB has the toughest remaining schedule because it still plays Trinity and Southwestern.  Moreover, if Trinity and/or Southwestern do beat UMHB, that could give them an NPI boost too.   

Yes, the team went straight to Marshall from Jackson, MS. Might I add, UMHB is on a 6 game winning streak for the first time since 2022. This team has quite a bit more grit than the past couple of years. Curious how the first round of NPI will shake out, given what you said.

UMHB vs. Howard Payne

The Cru open conference play with a 6-0 win at home. 6 different goal scorers, 27 players used.

Was 2-0 at half but the game was never really close. Got the scoring started less than 2 minutes in and the HPU goalkeeper even registered 13 saves. UMHB move to 7-1-2 and have won 5 straight coming off of their only loss to UST.

Quote from: Kuiper on September 24, 2025, 06:12:49 PMFINAL:  Mary Hardin-Baylor 3 - Rhodes 2

Nice away win for UMHB, which has shown its ability to battle against teams in close games (e.g., ties against Colorado College and Whitman and a 2-1 win over Texas Lutheran).  Not sure why they scheduled a single away game at 11 am in Memphis, TN on a Wednesday, though, sandwiched between two home games on the Saturdays before and after this game.  I guess a ~600 mile drive isn't considered a big deal for a team from Texas.  In the game, the teams were tied 1-1 at the half, but Mary Hardin-Baylor scored just a few minutes after the start of the second half.  Rhodes tied it up again in the 56th, but UMHB scored the game winner in the 65th.  Mary Hardin-Baylor is now 6-1-2, with it's only loss being to St. Thomas

Part of the issue of having a 4 team conference... Struggling just to get enough games so you have to schedule more non-conference opponents and sprinkle them in midweek, even after conference play starts. Options are slim to find quality opponents outside of the norm; it's either games like @ Rhodes and @Belhaven or you're forced to look at JuCo's or NCCAA schools.

Quote from: Kuiper on August 10, 2025, 12:37:44 PMMcMurry

McMurry finished 4-13-1 in the SCAC in 2024, their first since moving from the ASC, where they will return in 2026.  A poor record, but double the win total of the year prior and tied for the second most wins since the pandemic.  In other words, expectations for men's soccer are all relative for McMurry.  The 2025 roster suggests things are particularly bleak though.  They had 32 on the roster in 2024 and currently only have 18 on the roster for 2025.  I thought maybe it was just a spring returners roster, but they have incoming freshman on it. If it is the complete roster for 2025, they'll have trouble just making it through the season with subs on the bench, so I'm guessing this is incomplete and they will at least have some more freshman joining the team.  Even then, they only have 9 sophomores listed, and 14 freshman were listed in the 2024 roster, so they clearly have had some roster melt.  Not very healthy for the team considering the university claimed to have record enrollment for the second year in a row last fall, with a 25% increase and topping 3,000 students.  Perhaps the fact that they lost their head coach and replaced him with the women's head coach taking over both teams led players to leave and hurt recruiting. 

Key Departures:

They didn't have a lot of "key" contributors last season, but they did lose some frequent senior starters such as midfielders Trey Castillo and Danny Chavez and defender Preston Stal.  More disturbing is they lost frequent starters who were freshman, such as GK Brandon Walker, D D'Mari Washington, and midfielder Landyn Snider.  They also apparently lost leading scorer, sophomore defender Anthony Licea

Key Returners:

They have a few regular starters returning.  Julian Trevino was a regular starter at defense and comes back for his sophomore year.  Dylan Christian also comes back as a senior midfielder and Jovanni Burnett as a sophomore midfielder.

Freshman:

They only have 3 listed on the roster right now.

Hearing that McMurry got their turf redone at Wilford Moore Stadium over the summer and shrunk their already tiny soccer field even further; quite a bit under NCAA minimums. So much so, there was a directive(unclear from where) that teams will not be forced to play there. Which must be true given that the only SCAC home games are Centenary and Austin College and they only have 5 total at home this season.

Quote from: Kuiper on August 26, 2025, 07:06:17 PMThe ASC is down to only 4 teams this season, although it adds teams next year.  Still, a preseason poll seems a little silly, especially when the two top teams tie (Hardin-Simmons and Mary Hardin-Baylor) and 3 of the 4 get first place votes.  It looks odd to have 8 first place votes with 4 teams too, but this is a poll of both coaches and sports information directors.   Someone should have given Howard Payne a pity first place vote though.  Who cares if they were 0-15-4 last season?  Everyone should get an award in the ASC this season.

Nevertheless, they do the poll and vote for a whole bunch of player awards while they do it

2025 ASC Men's Soccer Preseason Poll
Rank    Team (1st votes)    Pts.    2024 Record (ASC)
1.    Hardin-Simmons (4)    26    12-6-2 (6-2)
1.    Mary Hardin-Baylor (3)    26    10-6-3 (7-0-1)
3.    East Texas Baptist (1)    19    8-10-1 (3-4-1)
4.    Howard Payne    9    0-15-4 (0-7-1)

2025 ASC Preseason Players of the Year
Offense: Junior Lopez, MF, So., East Texas Baptist
Defense: Dylan Vadnais, D, Jr., Mary Hardin-Baylor
 
2025 ASC Men's Soccer Players to Watch
Name    Pos.    Cl.    Team    Hometown
Deaven Connelly *    D    Sr.    Howard Payne    Burleson, Texas
Dylan Garcia *    F    Jr.    East Texas Baptist    Clovis, Calif.
Jerron Garcia    CM    Jr.    Hardin-Simmons    Midland, Texas
Junior Lopez * O    MF    So.    East Texas Baptist    Lufkin, Texas
Ryan Lord * DF    GK    So.    East Texas Baptist    Fate, Texas
Karsen Macias *    F    Sr.    Mary Hardin-Baylor    Arlington, Texas
Ethan Mauldin *    F    Sr.    Howard Payne    Weatherford, Texas
Aston Riedel *    D    Sr.    Howard Payne    Rosenburg, Texas
Dylan Vadnais *    D    Jr.    Mary Hardin-Baylor    Comfort, Texas
Daniel Villagomez *    CM    So.    Hardin-Simmons    Waco, Texas
James Webb *    F    So.    Hardin-Simmons    Waco, Texas
 
2024 All-ASC Selection *
2024 ASC Offensive Player of the Year O
2024 ASC Defensive Freshman of the Year DF

Admittedly forgot all about this board since the end of last season... But excited for another season watching Region X/Texas D3 soccer!

I think this season could be VERY intriguing for NPI considerations given the departure of Trinity and Southwestern to the SAA(SoS+ with Oglethorpe, Rhodes), the thin nature of the ASC and the numerous midweek non-conference games throughout the entirety of the regular season rather than just pre-conference schedule. UMHB @ CC & Whitman in Colorado Springs this week, @ Rhodes, @ Belhaven, @ Trinity 2nd to last game of the season. Hitting up many other conferences for non-conference games this year rather predominately the SCAC. HSU facing CNU also a boost to OOWP if that is even still factored into the ever changing dials of NPI.

ASC Weekend Recap
UMHB goes 2-0 beating Schreiner 3-1 on Friday and TLU 2-1 on Saturday, both moved places and times to the turf at Belton HS due to rain. Check out the game winning goal vs. TLU from sophomore returner Aidan Aguilera.

HSU goes 1-1 falling @ TLU 2-0 Friday and beating Schreiner 4-0 Saturday night in Belton.

ETBU hammered U of Dallas 7-0 Friday and is currently tied 1-1 vs. Ozarks with 15' left in the 1H.
Update: ETBU takes the lead 2-1 in the 74'.
Full-time: ETBU takes the win 2-1.

HPU continued their rough go of things losing 2-1 @ Ozarks Friday and plays Austin College in Sherman this evening at 5:30.
Update: Lost 2-0 in Sherman. 0-2 to start the season.

Quote from: SKUD on November 12, 2024, 03:01:58 PM^ not sure I understand? Wesleyan is NOT a top 16.

Am I reading something wrong? 11/10 NPI has them #16.

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/40157?utf8=%E2%9C%93&commit=Submit

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 12, 2024, 02:27:06 AM

Quote from: Ejay on November 11, 2024, 10:40:05 PM

Quote from: rdanie03 on November 11, 2024, 09:14:47 PM

Quote from: FanaticFan458 on November 11, 2024, 09:10:55 PMHow does Cortland, who won the SUNYAC and had several incredible wins get such an unfavorable draw? Messiah and Williams is quite a gauntlet and for me is the toughest pod in the tournament.

I mean, Messiah is ranked 36th in the NPI, which is about what the 22nd ranked team should expect to see in the 1st round. Williams is a bit of a tough second round draw though.

Hmmm, interesting thought, but have you looked at the opponents of other teams ranked oround Cortland?
17 vs 131
18 vs 52
19 vs 60
20 vs 55
21 vs 71
Cortland vs. 36
23 vs 59
24 vs 80
25 vs 75
26 vs 41
27 vs 72

.

I made a bracket on a spreadsheet that has the teams listed with their rank 1-64 based on their NPI rank and how far off they are based on a perfectly seeded bracket. Obviously the seeding won't be perfect due to geographical limitations but it's not too bad.

10 teams are exactly where they should be.
11 teams are 1 seed off
9 teams are 2 seeds off
20 teams are 3-5 seeds off
9 teams are 6-9 seeds off
5 teams are 10+ seeds off (C-M-S is the furthest off. Should be seeded 31 but is in the 48 slot for geographic reasons)

1st round matchup extremes (ranks should add to 65)
55: 37 Otterbein vs 18 Wash & Lee
56: 48 Belhaven @ 8 Trinity
56: 34 Messiah vs 22 Cortland
58: 38 Emory @ 20 Lynchburg
58: 53 Suffolk @ 5 Conn College
59: 31 C-M-S vs 28 Oglethorpe
...
71: 54 St Mary's vs 17 Dickinson
71: 46 WestConn vs 25 Frank & Marsh
71: 44 UW-Superior vs 27 North Park
74: 42 DePauw vs 32 Hope
75: 63 Spalding @ 12 Kenyon
76: 62 Anderson @ 14 Denison
83: 50 Thomas vs 33 Buffalo St

I took a look at that as well but didn't reseed anyone... #1 Middlebury vs. #339 Hunter made me laugh. Reminds me of some of those UEFA qualification matchups. Basically anytime a world power plays San Marino.

Quote from: BTXCru18 on November 06, 2024, 02:38:07 PMI'm sure this might have been mentioned in the NPI or national threads, but with Colorado College having such a  high ranking but no proximity to hardly any school, what will happen to their hosting priority?

FWIW, all but Wesleyan(CT) are hosting 1st/2nd rounds of the top 16 seeds. CC was a convenient coincidence, but makes you think if that was the intention all along. Lynchburg(#20) is the only non top-16 host site.

Quote from: BTXCru18 on November 10, 2024, 03:24:11 PMASC Championship - #2 Hardin-Simmons vs. #4 LeTourneau

LeTu down to 10 men in the 12' for a DOGSO offense. Still 0-0. HSU leading with 4 shots, 2 on frame to LeTu's 3 shots, 0 on frame.

28' Update: HSU take the lead 1-0. Nick Ocasio finishes from about 10 yards out after LeTu fails to clear a cross. Ball falls straight to Ocasio for the first-time finish.

37' Update: HSU extends their lead 2-0. Jakob Fiol rounds the goalkeeper on a long through ball from Jordan Garcia and slots the ball past the lone defender.

75' Update: Still 2-0. HSU leading by a large margin in shots(27-12) and shots on goal(14-4). A lot of Cowboys getting minutes, 8 players off the bench so far.

FINAL: HSU cruises to a 2-0 win in this one, up a man for 78 minutes. They claim their first ASC championship since 2014 and Brad Bankhead's 3rd as a coach and 1st at HSU.