Which quadrant is the group of death?

Looking at the most recent NPI and it seems 6 NESCAC teams are guaranteed in the tournament. It hasn't been brought up much, but Amherst is sweating this weekend out if a lot of upsets happen in conference tournaments. They are currently 31st with an NPI of 56.643. I don't know the exact math, but if these results happen, I think it's possible they drop to 34/35. Given that last year the NPI cutoff was around 33/34, who knows, maybe it will happen again. Realistically, the only result that is keeping Amherst in the conversation is their win early on in the season against #8 Conn College and a tie against #12 Middlebury. They've had no other good results. Don't think they deserve to be in the tournament, but I think that they will most likely be in. Their own NPI could move a tiny bit depending on the NESCAC semi results, I'd assume. They will be cheering for Conn College and Middlebury as they are the two teams they had results with, but not sure if the NESCAC results will have much of an effect on Amherst's NPI.

Saint Johns currently 37th with an NPI of 56.012. They play against St Olaf who is currently the #2 team in the country. A win I think could get them to jump Amherst.

Southwestern currently 32nd with an NPI of 56.578. They play in their conference semi-final and then presumably a final against Trinity Texas. A result in the semi final and then a draw/win against Trinity Texas will surely get them past Amherst.

Buffalo state currently 34th with an NPI of 56.390. They play in the conference final against Oneonta who is the 49th team in the country. Not sure what the math is on this one, and if that win is enough to get them past that 56.64.

VA Wesleyan who is currently 33rd with an NPI of 56.484 don't have anymore games left. So it would be based on their current results which I don't think can move them past Amherst. 

Rowan is currently 35th with an NPI of 56.333. Need to win their conference tournament to have a chance and I don't know if it will even be enough to jump Amherst.

Ohio Northern is currently 36th with an NPI of 56.261. Need to win the semi-final and final of their conference tournament, and that might be enough to jump Amherst.

Quote from: smoova on November 01, 2025, 05:21:24 PM

Quote from: flyingdutchman on October 08, 2025, 03:10:29 PMWesleyan's recent results have been impressive, don't get me wrong; however, watching them play, I don't understand how they are getting the results they are. Talking about Wesleyan as a potential league winner seems absurd to me. They are proving they are hard to beat, but I don't think anyone in their offense is particularly threatening. I don't see them advancing past the first round of the NESCAC tournament, unless it's a 0-0 tie and they win it in penalties. Maybe they will continue to prove me wrong, but these results have to be a fluke

Quote from: flyingdutchman on October 13, 2025, 08:55:24 AMWesleyan got another impressive result this weekend. Yet, I'm still not convinced by them and will stand by my prediction that they don't make it past the quarter finals of the NESCAC tournament. If they win the NESCAC regular season, I truly believe it is the WORST team to win the regular season in the last 10 years. Results are results and you can argue it doesn't matter how the game is played if you win, but if you actually watch this Wesleyan team, they aren't very good. In my opinion, past teams that won the NESCAC just way looked more convincing and dominant. Who knows, maybe they will continue to prove me wrong but I'm convinced this run ends soon.

Quote from: flyingdutchman on October 18, 2025, 06:11:54 PMI've said it multiple times, Wesleyan is overrated. Yes, Bowdoin is dangerous and can get results, but I am confident this is the beginning of the downfall of this Wesleyan team.

Aged like milk...

Nice Wesleyan! So exciting they are going to the NESCAC semis they are surely going to win the whole thing. Since those posts they proceeded to Lose to Bowdoin, Tie to Colby and Tie to Conn before today. So wouldn't say it aged like milk. Their downfall has started since those posts.... Amherst did it to themselves today losing with 14 seconds left. This Amherst team is young and unconvincing would be hilarious if they don't make the tourney. Will give credit to Wesleyan for the second goal, it was a banger + a winner in the final minute.

Quote from: Camelparent on October 28, 2025, 01:35:05 PMPersonally don't see the camels tying Wes as Conn get nothing from a draw. They will either throw everything at it and win or get countered and lose.

It will be a massive domino effect on how other teams play based off of the Mid vs Williams game

They don't get anything NESCAC related with a draw but a loss would hurt their NPI

Match day 10 predictions and playoff implications.

Tufts 1-0 Bowdoin
Middlebury 1-1 Williams
Colby 1-1 Bates
Amherst 3-1 Trinity
Conn College 0-0 Wesleyan

Playoff Matchups:
Quarter Finals
1 Tufts vs 8 Bates
2 Wesleyan vs 7 Middlebury   
3 Williams vs 6 Amherst
4 Bowdoin vs 5 Conn

Interesting day in the NESCAC. I've said it multiple times, Wesleyan is overrated. Yes, Bowdoin is dangerous and can get results, but I am confident this is the beginning of the downfall of this Wesleyan team. Amherst with a solid win against Hamilton which should practically end Hamilton's NESCAC playoff hopes. Hamilton has to hope now that their out of conference wins are enough to get them a spot in the big tourney. Conn with a big win against Bates to help solidify their spot in the NESCAC tournament. This Bates team has proven to be young and tough to beat at times but this isn't a team that I personally think will do much in the post season. Middlebury with a tough loss to Tufts, as Tufts continues to roll and solidify their position as the #1 team in the country. I don't understand this Middlebury team as they have offensive fire power but it seems they are really missing Madden and lack leadership at the back. Their defense continues to let them down and I don't understand the decision to have a 5'7 freshman back there. Although they are having troubles, I anticipate they beat Bates and make the NESCAC tournament. This could be a team that gets hot in the NESCAC tournament and they will need to if they want any chance of being in the big dance. Trinity with a heartbreaking and pathetic tie in the final minute against Bates, pretty much sums up the Trinity program at this point. Will be interesting to see in the next two weeks which of Williams, Tufts and Wesleyan take the regular season crown and the upcoming playoff matchups. I think their could be some great matchups in that quarter final weekend.

Quote from: smoova on October 08, 2025, 04:48:11 PM

Quote from: flyingdutchman on October 08, 2025, 03:10:29 PMWesleyan's recent results have been impressive, don't get me wrong; however, watching them play, I don't understand how they are getting the results they are. Talking about Wesleyan as a potential league winner seems absurd to me. They are proving they are hard to beat, but I don't think anyone in their offense is particularly threatening. I don't see them advancing past the first round of the NESCAC tournament, unless it's a 0-0 tie and they win it in penalties. Maybe they will continue to prove me wrong, but these results have to be a fluke

So ... four "flukes"?

Wesleyan got another impressive result this weekend. Yet, I'm still not convinced by them and will stand by my prediction that they don't make it past the quarter finals of the NESCAC tournament. If they win the NESCAC regular season, I truly believe it is the WORST team to win the regular season in the last 10 years. Results are results and you can argue it doesn't matter how the game is played if you win, but if you actually watch this Wesleyan team, they aren't very good. In my opinion, past teams that won the NESCAC just way looked more convincing and dominant. Who knows, maybe they will continue to prove me wrong but I'm convinced this run ends soon.

Wesleyan's recent results have been impressive, don't get me wrong; however, watching them play, I don't understand how they are getting the results they are. Talking about Wesleyan as a potential league winner seems absurd to me. They are proving they are hard to beat, but I don't think anyone in their offense is particularly threatening. I don't see them advancing past the first round of the NESCAC tournament, unless it's a 0-0 tie and they win it in penalties. Maybe they will continue to prove me wrong, but these results have to be a fluke

Is this the year Trinity finally gets a NESCAC win? The way this season is going, I think they might beat Conn College

Quite entertained by all the comments made regarding Amherst. The reality is that many of us are taking the antics too far, and while some of the behavior is inexcusable, it's just a game at the end of the day, and players get amped up. Coach Serpone and the Amherst players thrive on chaos; they want opposition to fear it, and they feed off drawing teams into it. The question is whether this year's group will continue this style. Nuhu, one of the top players in the NESCAC, certainly has it in him, with his past crotch grabbing antics and the constant trash talk coming from such a petite man like himself.

Have had enough of all of the Trinity talk. Truly believe that Tufts is going to be the one to dethrone them. Gyimesi is going to be NESCAC POTY and could see some senior contributors such as Cain coming off the bench and having a big impact from behind the arc.

Quote from: stlawus on November 12, 2024, 12:13:21 PM

Quote from: flyingdutchman on November 12, 2024, 09:49:06 AMI understand the frustration with 8 NESCAC teams in the tournament, but the whole point of the NPI system is to get the "best" teams into the tournament. Yes, some of the NESCAC teams like Bowdoin or Wesleyan have a 7-5-5 record and 7-4-5 record, but they have quality results that prove they can compete with the best. Bowdoin has tied Tufts twice, Conn, and Williams. Those are ties against the 2nd, 5th, and 6th best ranked teams. Whether or not NPI is weighing a quality tie too much in the calculation is one thing, but it shows they can compete on any given day with the best. Wesleyan on the other hand has a tie vs Babson(#10), a tie vs Bowdoin, a tie against Williams, and a win over #5 Conn. Again, showing that a team like Wesleyan who is the 6th or 7th NESCAC team into the tournament is deserving of being a top 32 team in the country. It's difficult when teams like St Lawerence don't make the tournament given their recent results and run but you have to understand that in order to make the tournament, especially with the new NPI system you can't lose or tie bad teams. ST Law loss to SUNY Geneso the 161st ranked team. Tied Ithaca the 163rd ranked team, tied Clarkson the 108th ranked team. Tied Hobart the 172nd ranked team. I truly believe that a lot of teams ranked ahead of teams such as Ithaca aren't as good as them but it doesn't help when your conference doesn't get results outside of your conference. Take a look at the NESCAC out of conference record, and you'll realize one of the reasons they are all ranked so high. 

This isn't about SLU, and I 100% disagree with the notion that NPI is about getting the best teams in. It should be about getting the most deserving teams in, not the best. Major difference. There is no reason a team barely above .500 should be in the NCAA tournament. Not one. Again, this is completely contrary to the point of division 3. Every year in every sport there are lots of good teams that get left out, but they are left out because they didn't win games.

So what is the difference then between best teams and most deserving teams? What team in your opinion, deserves to be in the tournament over some of those NESCAC teams. SOS is a real thing. The whole point of all the AQ spots is for teams that are successful in their conferences to be given a chance in the tournament even though we all know some of those teams aren't the best in the country. The at large bids however, are for the BEST teams in the country...

I understand the frustration with 8 NESCAC teams in the tournament, but the whole point of the NPI system is to get the "best" teams into the tournament. Yes, some of the NESCAC teams like Bowdoin or Wesleyan have a 7-5-5 record and 7-4-5 record, but they have quality results that prove they can compete with the best. Bowdoin has tied Tufts twice, Conn, and Williams. Those are ties against the 2nd, 5th, and 6th best ranked teams. Whether or not NPI is weighing a quality tie too much in the calculation is one thing, but it shows they can compete on any given day with the best. Wesleyan on the other hand has a tie vs Babson(#10), a tie vs Bowdoin, a tie against Williams, and a win over #5 Conn. Again, showing that a team like Wesleyan who is the 6th or 7th NESCAC team into the tournament is deserving of being a top 32 team in the country. It's difficult when teams like St Lawerence don't make the tournament given their recent results and run but you have to understand that in order to make the tournament, especially with the new NPI system you can't lose or tie bad teams. ST Law loss to SUNY Geneso the 161st ranked team. Tied Ithaca the 163rd ranked team, tied Clarkson the 108th ranked team. Tied Hobart the 172nd ranked team. I truly believe that a lot of teams ranked ahead of teams such as Ithaca aren't as good as them but it doesn't help when your conference doesn't get results outside of your conference. Take a look at the NESCAC out of conference record, and you'll realize one of the reasons they are all ranked so high. 

I think the comparison is a similar one when comparing goals against, shots against, etc, between the Middlebury and Tufts backlines. A player from both teams is fully deserving of the Defensive POTY award, and I believe it will come down to Luke Madden or Max Clivio. A first team All American vs a second team All American is as close as it gets, and they are both leaders of two outstanding backlines. I believe it's one of these two, and from what I've watched, I would prefer Clivio.

Based on the NPI rankings—and I know it's still early—I would expect the five top-10 teams, Tufts, Middlebury, Amherst, Williams, and Conn College, to be almost certain bids for the tournament. With Wesleyan ranked #20, Bowdoin at #34, and Hamilton at #36, it's not out of the question that we could see a potential sixth or even seventh NESCAC team make it. I understand that some conferences, like the UAA, haven't played many conference games yet, so their SOS will improve as they play each other. These are the remaining games for those three teams.

Wesleyan:
Eastern Conn St - Win
Colby - Win
Conn College - believe a tie or win will help them stay where they are but a loss will drop them.

Hamilton:
Utica - Win
Trinity - Win

Bowdoin:
Amherst - Draw/Loss
Tufts - Draw/Loss

Based on these last remaining games, Bowdoin has a chance to pick up some quality ranked results vs Amherst and Tufts that could sneak them into the tournament. However, it will be very difficult to get results away at Amherst and Tufts. Looks like Bowdoin will be playing for their season these next two games. Hamilton has two easy remaining games that will certainly help their win percentage but not SOS. Hamilton will likely need to get a result or two in the NESCAC tournament in order to get into the Big Dance. Wesleyan is in a similar position to Hamilton where I think they might need a draw or win in the NESCAC quarterfinals (likely against Midd or Amherst). A win against Conn in their final game of the season would certainly help their case and I don't think a draw would hurt them.