Quote from: USee on November 10, 2026, 09:52:14 AMCarollFan, what are the chances Bethel's position as the last at-large changes? Their NPI likely won't improve as they play St Scholastica (1-8) so the only changes will be to their ONPI. Barring an upset for an AQ that bumps someone into Pool C above them, can anyone overtake them for the last spot?

86.9%.....UWRF losing and some others really helped them.
If Amherst or Wesleyan lose it jumps to 94%. If they both lose it jumps to 98.7%.
If Hope loses its 96.9%.
If Hope and Amherst or Wesleyan lose it's a little over 99%.

I'll double check if anyone can catch them even if they win.
Looks like 2 teams behind them which could surpass them with a win are Brockport and Wesleyan although if Wesleyan wins they might get the AQ.

https://hansenratings.com/projections/2026/week-11/

CCIW Week 11 Games:

#1 Wheaton -37.9 @ Carthage
IWU +36 @ #4 NCC
Augie -18.7 @ Carroll
Elmhurst +27.1 @ NPU

Millikin with a bye.

All CCIW games start at noon.

Some games with AQ and at-large bid implications:

#6 HS -3.3 @ #13 UMHB
Coe +20.4 @ #12 Wartburg
Trine +15.7 @ #19 Hope
Wabash +17.2 @ #16 DePauw
CUW +3.8 @ Benedictine
Brockport +10.2 @ #21 Utica
F&M -2.8 @ Johns Hopkins
Muhlenberg +15.1 @ Dickinson
Wesleyan +6.4 @ Trinity (Conn.)
Amherst +0.3 @ Williams
Marietta +3.5 @ Mount St. Joseph
Hanover -12.1 @ Franklin
Randolph-Macon +1.2 @ Hampden-Sydney

Players of the Week

Offense - Augie QB Jimmy Makuh (2nd time)
Defense - NCC S Kyler Green
Special Teams - NCC K Sean Ryniec (3rd time)

Quote from: Jbothe on November 09, 2026, 10:12:23 AM

Quote from: CarollFan on November 09, 2026, 12:07:48 AMSo I took a look at which teams indicated in my previous message are in if they win but out if they lose.

Then in Logan's tool I tried what are IWU's chances if they win and 2 NESCAC teams, Amherst and Wesleyan lose and IWU's chances jumped to 92%.

Then I tried Amherst and Hope losing and IWU's chances jumped to 100%. I think Hope losing really helps because Hope is playing Trine and IWU beat Trine.

Wesleyan and Hope losing gives IWU a 100% chance too.

Then I just tried what if just Hope loses and IWU has a 100% chance to get in.

This is based on IWU beating NCC.

I wonder what IWU chances would look like without the Millikin loss.  Would an 8-2 IWU team with a win at Millikin and loss to North Central have a chance?

I did some math and figured out the scenario beating Millikin and losing to NCC would get IWU about .85 less NPI points using current NPI's. NCC's NPI would end up a little lower with a loss so that difference may be a little smaller but your chances are definitely lower beating Millikin then beating NCC.

Beating NCC on the road would get IWU huge points, around 90 points.
One minor challenge, beating NCC on the road.

Last week of the regular season.

We discussed Wheaton LB Zeke Harris as DPOY.
How about OPOY?

I don't think we are going to see 3 QB's on the second team All-CCIW this year with the injuries at the QB position.

So I took a look at which teams indicated in my previous message are in if they win but out if they lose.

Then in Logan's tool I tried what are IWU's chances if they win and 2 NESCAC teams, Amherst and Wesleyan lose and IWU's chances jumped to 92%.

Then I tried Amherst and Hope losing and IWU's chances jumped to 100%. I think Hope losing really helps because Hope is playing Trine and IWU beat Trine.

Wesleyan and Hope losing gives IWU a 100% chance too.

Then I just tried what if just Hope loses and IWU has a 100% chance to get in.

This is based on IWU beating NCC.

Logan's scenario tool is updated.

https://hansenratings.com/simulation/2026/scenarios/

If IWU (7-2) beats NCC 68.3% chance to get in.
If NCC (8-1) loses 99% chance to get in.
NCC favored by 36

Amherst (7-1) if they beat Williams 100% chance to get in.
If Amherst loses they are out.
Williams favored by 0.3

Bethel (7-2) if they beat St. Scholastica 86.9% chance to get in.
Bethel favored by 59.9

Heidelberg (7-2) if they beat Wilmington 34.1% chance to get in.
Heidelberg favored by 29.6

UWRF (6-3) if they beat UWSP 11% chance to get in.
UWRF favored by 36.7

Wesleyan (7-1) if they beat Trinity (Conn.) 100% chance they get in.
If Trinity (Conn.)(8-0) loses 100% chance they get in.
If Wesleyan loses they are out
Trinity favored by 6.4

Could the NESCAC get 3 teams in?

Brockport (7-2) if they beat Utica
97.4% chance to get in.
If Utica (8-1) loses 100% chance to get in.
Utica favored by 10.2

John Carroll (7-2) if they beat Denison 35.9% chance to get in.
JCU favored by 21.9

Montclaire St (7-2) if they beat Rowan (7-2) 44.3% chance to get in.
If Rowan wins 0.2% chance to get in.
Rowan favored by 6.2

If Hope (8-1) loses to Trine (7-2) 5.4% chance to get in. If Hope wins they are in.
Hope favored by 15.7

The loser of the CUW (9-0) @ Benedictine (9-0) game gets in
Benedictine favored by 3.8

Franklin & Marshall (8-1) if they lose to Johns Hopkins 21.3% chance to get in.
F&M favored by 2.8

UMHB and HS are both making the playoffs no matter who wins.
HS favored by 3.3

Mount St. Joseph (8-1) if they lose to Marietta (6-3) 19.4% chance to get in.
Mount St. Joseph favored by 3.5

I'm not sure about the HCAC looking at Logan's odds.
For the HCAC Mount St. Joseph is 5-1 in conference. Their last game is a non conference game.

Hanover is 4-1 in conference and beat Mount St. Joseph. They have a conference game vs. Franklin. Hanover favored by 12.1
So to me it looks like Hanover could get the AQ if they win. Currently #60 NPI ranking.

https://d3football.com/top25/2026/week10

Wheaton remains #1.
UWW is #2.

Quote from: CCIWFan69 on November 08, 2026, 12:01:09 PM

Quote from: CarollFan on November 08, 2026, 10:27:55 AMWho is IWU going to play in the Isthmus Bowl?

To me, now it looks like UWRF.
How I got there.

4 teams in WIAC sit at 3-3 in conference. UWRF, UWS, UWEC, UWL.
Schedule the last week.
UWP @ UWL
UWW @ UWEC
UWSP @ UWRF
UWS @ UWO.

UWRF is going to win their last game. They've beaten UWS and UWEC so they hold the tie breaker over them. UWRF lost to UWL. If UWP beats UWL and UWRF wins then UWRF goes to Isthmus.

If UWL was to upset UWP, I'm not sure how it plays out because UWL beat UWRF but if UWS wins, UWS beat UWL but lost to UWRF. So I'll assume UWL loses to UWP.

I'm assuming UWEC loses to UWW.

I'm also assuming UWRF doesn't make the playoffs. I know this week we'll see a lot of here is 20 things that need to happen for a team to get in. I'll wait for Logan to update his site with yesterday's results to see what percentage chance he is giving teams to see who actually has a chance.

UWRF has a real shot of getting in still.  They only need to pass 2 teams. 

I'll publish the % chances Logan gives for bubble teams and include IWU too.
Challenge UWRF has is they play the last place team in the WIAC and they need other teams to lose. I don't think Bethel is losing. Also teams from behind could overtake them even if they win.

Who is IWU going to play in the Isthmus Bowl?

To me, now it looks like UWRF.
How I got there.

4 teams in WIAC sit at 3-3 in conference. UWRF, UWS, UWEC, UWL.
Schedule the last week.
UWP @ UWL
UWW @ UWEC
UWSP @ UWRF
UWS @ UWO.

UWRF is going to win their last game. They've beaten UWS and UWEC so they hold the tie breaker over them. UWRF lost to UWL. If UWP beats UWL and UWRF wins then UWRF goes to Isthmus.

If UWL was to upset UWP, I'm not sure how it plays out because UWL beat UWRF but if UWS wins, UWS beat UWL but lost to UWRF. So I'll assume UWL loses to UWP.

I'm assuming UWEC loses to UWW.

I'm also assuming UWRF doesn't make the playoffs. I know this week we'll see a lot of here is 20 things that need to happen for a team to get in. I'll wait for Logan to update his site with yesterday's results to see what percentage chance he is giving teams to see who actually has a chance.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

Still some games going on out west.
UWW moves to #1.
Looks like Cortland is going to move into #2 spot. Pretty close between #1 and #2.
With UWRF dropping out, Bethel holding on to last spot.

CCIW week 10 scores:

#1 Wheaton 52 Elmhurst 0
#5 NCC 62  Millikin 12
IWU 59  NPU 20 (This win should clinch the Isthmus Bowl. Could end up tied with Augie in conference but beat them head to head.)
Augie 37  Carthage 0

https://d3football.com/conf/CCIW/2026/standings

Top 25 games:

#4 UWW 24  #2 UWP 21
#8 WashU 45  OWU 24
#10 Cortland 42 Brockport 24
#13 BW 27  Mount Union 21 (Mount Union eliminated from the playoffs.)
#25 Calvin 38   #9 Hope 24
UWL 41   #14 UWRF 30  (UWRF eliminated from the playoffs. They are in the hunt for the Isthmus Bowl)
#15 UMHB 42  ETBU 28
#17 DePauw 41 Wooster 28
#18 Trinity (TX) 16  Centre 13

Some bubble teams playoff chances just might improve after UWRF and UMU eliminated.

https://d3football.com/notables/2026/11/quick-hits-week10

Logan regarding UWW @ UWP, "With respect to the Little Brass Bell, this is the biggest matchup of the year."

Good manners...

I know the last time we discussed game notes and 2 deep roster for IWU it caused some back and forth.

The last couple home games the game notes had #11 Kyle Beaty listed #1 QB.

This weeks game notes have #2 Dermot Smyth listed #1 QB.

https://www.iwusports.com/documents/2026/11/4/09GameNotes26_NorthPark.pdf

Quote from: Patrick Coleman on November 05, 2026, 01:38:04 PM

Quote from: CarollFan on November 05, 2026, 01:11:36 PM

Quote from: Jbothe on November 05, 2026, 12:15:00 PMI would say WashU is a better team this year than they were last year.  More experienced.

Yes that's the key, the experience. Even though they weren't making the playoffs they played in the Isthmus Bowl last year. WR Makael Carter was 1rst team All-CCIW last year and will probably be 1rst team All-NCAC this year. QB Levi Moore was 2nd team All-CCIW last year.

To be clear, though, the first team had two quarterbacks and the second team had three. Half of the conference's starting quarterbacks were named all-conference last year.

Hey we can't help it if we were loaded at QB....