Quote from: Kuiper on Yesterday at 07:14:34 PMThe Sweet 16 contains a lot of fun matchups we don't see very often (other than the intra-conference tilt), but Messiah @ Tufts (Saturday 11/22 at 11 am EST) is more fun than most. Here a few things of note that may only be of interest to me:
1. Any 14'ers heading up to Medford for a little reunion?
Almost 11 years ago to the day, on Nov. 23, 2014, #20 Tufts waltzed into Allentown, PA (cue the Billy Joel song) to take on #1 undefeated Messiah in the Quarterfinals of the NCAA Tournament. 53 seconds after kickoff, a Tufts free kick was knocked away by the Messiah defense and Tufts' Jason Kayne blasted through a follow-up shot to the left corner of the net that Messiah goalkeeper Brandon West couldn't get enough of a touch on to keep it out of the back of the net. Tufts held on to that 1-0 lead to hand Messiah its only loss of the season and end Messiah's quest to win a third national championship in a row. Tufts went on to beat Ohio Wesleyan 3-0 in the semifinals and Wheaton (IL) 4-2 in the Finals to win its first of what became four national championships.
That was the last time these two storied programs faced each other . . . until now.
And now Tufts (NPI #1 and 16-1-3) is the heavy favorite and Messiah (NPI # 107 and 13-7-2) is the underdog looking to shock the world.
2. Form matters
Messiah had a brutal start to the season, losing 5 in a row and losing 6 and tying 1 out of the first 10. In retrospect, that record wasn't quite as bad as it looked considering that of those 7 non-wins, 4 were to NCAA tournament teams (Scranton, Rowan, Dickinson, and Penn State Harrisburg). Still, it was historically bad for Messiah. Nevertheless, since those first 10 games, Messiah has gone 10-1-1, including winning its last 10 games. Its last loss was to Lynchburg away, another NCAA tournament team. It also demolished Calvin in the second half of its second round game and handed Hobart its first loss of the season, on Hobart's home field, in the first game of the tournament. In effect, Messiah's NPI ranking of #107 may not be an accurate reflection of their current rich vein of form.
Messiah's form goes beyond wins and losses. Although it has given up 26 goals this season for a team goals against average of 1.18, only 1 of those goals has come during its 10 game win streak and that was in a 7-1 win over Hood. It has had 4 straight shutouts and 9 shutouts in the last 10 games.
There are caveats to the "Messiah Turnaround." The vast majority of the 10 game winning streak came against teams from the MAC Commonwealth, which hasn't exactly been know as the pinnacle of competitiveness in DIII. Moreover, although its victory over Calvin was impressive, all three of its goals came after a two hour weather delay that stopped the game in the 39th minute, which makes it a tough match to use as a measuring stick.
The biggest caveat to Messiah being hot is that Tufts is even hotter. They are on a 18 game unbeaten streak. Their last loss was to Williams in the second game of the season. They rolled through the NESCAC and won the conference tournament. If there's any indication of a slight wobble in their step, it's that they've fallen into a pattern of waiting for late game heroics to pull out wins. Other than the Penn State Harrisburg game, which was a gimme, they beat Brandeis in the 102nd minute, they beat Conn on a blocked clearance from the GK into the net in the 82nd minute, they beat Middlebury on a goal in the 97th minute to complete a 3 goal comeback after being down 2-0, and they beat Bates with a PK off a handball in the 76th minute. Sometimes a team can be so confident that they will pull it out in the end that they can become too comfortable and too patient, and that can bite them against a team that is urgent from the outset.
3. These two schools don't appear to recruit in the same pools
It's no surprise that you don't see a ton of overlap between these two rosters in terms of geography, schools, or club teams.
There is at least one pair of high school teammates in the bunch, though, as Henry Perkins of Tufts and Harrison Keator of Messiah appeared to overlap at Northfield Mt Hermon School.
I do have to express my amusement at the bio for Tufts player Will Nicholas, which states that he "surfed for Santa Monica Surf." Although that is one of the few locations where the "Surf" moniker actually makes sense, Santa Monica Surf was the name of his club soccer team. I think I mentioned this last season too, but no one seems to have made any effort to fix it. I would say that it makes him sound cool to the New Englanders, but I don't think many people are going to mistake him for a surfer dude.
4. Something has to give
Tufts has only allowed 9 goals (0.45/game) all season, but, perhaps even more impressively, they've only allowed 176 shots (8.8/game).
Messiah, by contrast, has taken 401 shots (18.3/game). Some of that is because they were behind a lot earlier in the season, but it fits their recent pattern
v. Calvin 21
v. Hobart 14
v. Stevenson 19
v. hood 18
The question is whether Messiah can keep that up against Tufts - and maintain its shots on goal percentage of .400 (which is about the same as Tufts') - while also garnering its impressive number of corners (152 on the season). That would put Tufts under more pressure than its used to. Brandeis only managed 7 shots (2 on goal) and 2 corners against Tufts.
Wait, hold up...
*pauses...shivers*
Was a gust of cold wind just passing through? Oh wait, nevermind. It was this post. This post gave me chills.