Bubble update...

Last 8 in

Amherst (#27, 57.041)
UW-Whitewater
Macalester
Catholic
W&L
Buffalo St.
Hamilton
Rowan (#38, 55.815)

Last 8 out:

Vassar (#41, 55.649)
Carnegie Mellon
UW Stevens Point
Bridgewater
Plattsburgh St.
Bates
SUNY New Paltz
Rochester

Conferences where bids could be "stolen":

C2C - Christopher Newport is in, rest are "stolen"
NCAC - Denison
Centennial - Dickinson
WIAC - UW Eau Claire or Whitewater
NACC - Edgewood
Liberty - Hobart
MWC - Lake Forest
NJAC - Montclair or Rowan
OAC - Ohio Northern
Landmark - Scranton or Catholic
SAA - Trinity or Southwestern
Newmac - Wheaton (MA)

Teams on the bubble want the teams I listed to win their conference tournaments. If not, one less at-large bid is available. I'll track this as we go through conference tournaments.

If a conference is not listed it's very likely a "1 bid" league in my opinion OR it has so many teams already in that it's very unlikely an upset will happen.

Didn't see this one coming, but Denison tying Wabash means that they are firmly on the bubble now after being #1 for many weeks earlier this year. They have John Carroll, a NCAC semi-final, and possibly a final left.

impacts from today...

Mary Washington gets closer to at-large but still has work to do.

Mary Hardin Baylor, Wheaton (IL), Bridgewater and Wooster drop below the bubble, must win auto-bid.

W&L moves into good position tomorrow, but gets a poor draw in ODAC tourney (Randolph, low NPI points), win that and likely get Bridgewater again for a must-win game to stay in the tourney in ODAC semifinal.

NESCAC has 7 teams that I think have clinched NCAA bids. Bates is out but can still win and get in, even as at large (beat Tufts, lose to Williams for example, NPI would be 55.75 then). Hamilton will be hoping to stay in.

7 for sure, 2 more possible.

I think more about the Catholic and Wheaton (IL) type teams that are right at the bubble this year but, if they don't win the auto bid, will likely drop below a Hamilton and miss out. Both have great records and I wish they had a chance to get in over the 8th team from NESCAC.

Wednesday fun!!!

MHB / Trinity (#36 and #14)
Bridgewater / W&L (bubble teams)
Kenyon / Wooster (bubble team)
Mary Wash / CNU (best chance for MWU to get into bubble conversation...has to win this one)
North Central / Wheaton (IL) (top of conference, Wheaton on bubble)

Quote from: kansas hokie on October 29, 2025, 10:49:28 AM

Quote from: BlueJay95 on October 29, 2025, 09:59:52 AMI am hoping some of the NPI crunchers can help me here. Rowan is 11-3-4 and it is the only team I can find with 10+ wins for which there are no results listed as having 0.0 Net NPI. Can someone explain the 10+ win threshold and how it works? I can't figure out the calculation as there is definitely some adjustment that takes place and perhaps this is why they don't have any 0.0 Net NPI results. I am assuming this can't be a mistake.

I actually figured it out....it's not an error.  Rowan's NPI is 55.563. They should be dropping 3 wins, but each of their lowest wins (F&M, Kean, and NJ City) have win values HIGHER than Rowan's current NPI. Thus, dropping them would actually hurt Rowan so they stay in. This happens with the number of losses and ties (which have to be included in NPI calculations) lowers the overall NPI to that level.

So yes, Rowan's NPI is accurate. Learned something new today....

That does look strange to me. From what I have been learning about all of this by looking at a ton of schools is that yes, after 10 total wins (adj w/l) in NPI page you drop your lowest win/ties (ties give you .5 win). If I follow the methodology I'm used to seeing then Rowan would drop their 3 lowest results and their NPI today would rise to 55.939 which would be an important change.

It's rare for me to say this, but it appears that Rowan's calculation in the NPI is wrong. They should have started dropping lowest wins on 10/19 version and that didn't happen. Something to keep an eye on.

Quote from: BlueJay95 on October 29, 2025, 09:59:52 AMI am hoping some of the NPI crunchers can help me here. Rowan is 11-3-4 and it is the only team I can find with 10+ wins for which there are no results listed as having 0.0 Net NPI. Can someone explain the 10+ win threshold and how it works? I can't figure out the calculation as there is definitely some adjustment that takes place and perhaps this is why they don't have any 0.0 Net NPI results. I am assuming this can't be a mistake.

That does look strange to me. From what I have been learning about all of this by looking at a ton of schools is that yes, after 10 total wins (adj w/l) in NPI page you drop your lowest win/ties (ties give you .5 win). If I follow the methodology I'm used to seeing then Rowan would drop their 3 lowest results and their NPI today would rise to 55.939 which would be an important change.

It's rare for me to say this, but it appears that Rowan's calculation in the NPI is wrong. They should have started dropping lowest wins on 10/19 version and that didn't happen. Something to keep an eye on.

Catholic is an interesting NPI example...if they need an at-large bid, they would need to win semis and lost final to Scranton. the difference could come down to who they play in semis Moravian is higher and a better win than Lycoming. 55.93 vs. 56.04 would be NPI difference and that .11 could be what gets them in or out. Take Scranton to PK's and lose and they would be in. Almost guaranteed to be a bubble team.

Quote from: phinnyindia on October 28, 2025, 07:36:49 PMWhat are the chances Hamilton sneaks into the National tournament Kansas Hokie?

Hamilton is going to be a sort of interesting team. They have only one more game now and I have that as a win. That will give them a final NPI of 55.784 which is going to be very very close to the cut line. Hamilton fans will want to cheer for no "bid stealers" (unexpected conference tourney champions). Cheer hard for Bowdoin to win NESCAC as that's Hamilton's only team they beat that it's in the conference tourney. After that, Wesleyan and Middlebury would be good. Ithaca winning their conference also would help. Any small bump up could be the difference. There will be wiggles up and down as the games come in. Should be interesting.

M'bury would jump to #19 in today's RPI if that win is in there (Williams win value will drop to maybe #20 or #21), 57.38 NPI and 56 is around where NPI cutoff was last year. Loss to Conn college for example in first round drops that NPI to 56.85. I think Middlebury is safe, huge win today. Win a couple more in NESCAC and might even host first two rounds.

The NCAA typically has updated the NPI more often in the last two weeks including daily last year for the last week. Thought they might wait until after at least Tuesday games to update this week but oh well.

Agree with PAClassic and not only because we are both Leeds fans. How he calculated it is how I do it as well. For Middlebury, two losses would almost certainly see them drop out of tourney. The best scenario for two losses is lose to Williams and lose to Tufts which today's numbers gets you to 55.75.

Last year's NPI final cutoff number 55.989.

Think Middlebury has to win one more. Even a tie at Williams would do it too. Tie and loss gets NPI over 56. A tie in first-round of NESCAC (loss in PK's) would also likely get Middlebury over 56.

Multi-bid conferences

NESCAC - 8
UAA - 4
MIAC - 4
ODAC - 4
WIAC - 2
SAA - 2
SUNYAC - 2
NCAC - 2
Landmark - 2

Using today's numbers (win @ springfield, loss to Babson, win in semis, loss to Babson in final) the NPI would be 56.39 which is #31 today. Not enough to say you are safe, winning first Babson game would do it. Also, conference final loss can't be to anyone except Babson or Wheaton drops too far.

In a good place, just not entirely secure.