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Messages - Mister36

#1
It could always be worse...(looks at FBS). I am fully behind the removal of loud yelling people deciding who gets into playoffs
#2
Quote from: art76 on December 02, 2025, 05:08:28 PMCouple of random playoff questions - on the NCAA official bracket site it has the times as TBA - but it looks like 3 Eastern time zone games and 5 Central time zone games. Does that mean these games are going to be spread out more during the day?

And more of a curiosity question, but is anyone keeping track of the updated NPI calculations of the remaining 16 teams? Or any of the playoff teams, for that matter - just to see how things fully shake out?

All the games are starting Noon local time: https://d3football.com/scoreboard/2025/composite?view=14
#3
I hope the Bethel coaches are emphasizing special teams a bit this week. Slow punts leading to a block and some leaky return coverage will be heavily exploited by better teams. Obviously some of it could have been elements - but truth is they don't have much punting experience this year
#4
Who write the Bethel-Coe recap in the 2nd round wrap-up article?

https://d3football.com/playoffs/2025/second-round-recap

They incorrectly state that Bethel is playing Alma next week...I know it wasn't pulled from the Bethel Athletics recap, they correctly stated it.

Also a note from the two matchups between Bethel and Coe from last year and yesterday - Coe QB Brady Kelly was sacked 18 times between the two games, 10 and 8 respectively. Drews only twice, both last year.

#5
Quote from: sjujohnnie on November 29, 2025, 07:29:09 PM
Quote from: jakeMN91 on November 29, 2025, 07:08:12 PMIf SJU were to win next weekend, would the next game be at Clemens? Does it depend who wins between Wheaton/DePauw?

I listened to the announcers on the ESPN feed and they mentioned that they thought if St John's could advance past River Falls that the following game (the quarterfinals) would be back in Collegeville. I hope that's accurate and even more importantly, I hope St John's can defeat River Falls!

Based on NPI seeding, DePauw and Wheaton are lower than St. Johns, so yes if they beat RF they should be hosting round after.
#6
Looks like a MIAC-WIAC border battle next week, and if LaCrosse could do us all a huge favor and take out NCC that'd be awesome  :P
#7
Quote from: Bofadeeznuts on November 29, 2025, 05:15:59 PMWhoopsi. Now how can that happen? Losing to a team that took second place in an inferior conference? The best defense in the country allowing almost 200 yds on the ground? And at home?
I'll tell you.
The refs screwed us again. They could have called a holding penalty on every play. How else do you explain all the rushing yds against our team. Don't the refs know who we are? And especially at home? Every time Klunker passed, there was either holding or pass interference from the DBs.
If it wasn't snowing, there's no doubt it would have been a different story. Felt like it only snowed when our Warhawks had the ball.
Here's hoping Nick Saban takes the best job in the country. Or wait another year when Lance will need a job. Or just hire all of us. We seem to have all the answers.
On a positive, I'm sure we'll still be ranked in the top 25 in the final and preseason rankings. Even though I don't know why. But that public perception will give us a leg up to maybe sneak into the playoffs next year. Just need a chip and a chair. Then we roll in the playoffs to another championship.

I can't tell if this is a bit or not, but not because it's good.
#8
The white stuff has finally shown up - possible more on Saturday in the twin cities, though I think less chance in Collegeville #SnowGame
#9
Here's the MIAC Rushing stats - going from highest YPC to lowest. (Apologies for mess, trying to format this from the stats site is awful)

NTL Rank (Total Rush Yards)                  Rcd     Rushes  TOT Yd   YPC     TDs     RushYds Per Game

89   Saint John's (MN) (MIAC)                    9-1   257   1,567   6.10   24   156.7
16   Bethel (MN) (MIAC)                             10-0   440   2,286   5.20   30   228.6
67   Concordia-M'head (MIAC)                   7-3   365   1,717   4.70   18   171.7
126   St. Scholastica (MIAC)                      3-7   310   1,366   4.41   14   136.6
69   St. Olaf (MIAC)                                       4-6   404   1,703   4.22   16   170.3
197   Carleton (MIAC)                                      6-4   230    830       3.61   14      83.0
186   Gustavus Adolphus (MIAC)                   5-5   275   948     3.45   11   94.8
136   Macalester (MIAC)                                 3-7   419   1,297   3.10   11   129.7
210   Hamline (MIAC)                                      1-9     254   765           3.01   6   76.5
219   Augsburg (MIAC)                                     4-6   269   695     2.58   4   69.5

#10
Quote from: faunch on November 24, 2025, 05:33:43 PM
Quote from: DuffMan on November 24, 2025, 02:43:14 PM
Quote from: Mister36 on November 24, 2025, 02:32:46 PMI think based on many factors (Scoring, defense, etc) you could say this is the best BU team ever.

Yeah, you could also make the case that the MIAC is WEAK this year, which I definitely think it is.
Agreed...I think BU and / or SJU could get a real eye opener this Saturday. The balance in the MIAC this season was the worst I recall in a long time.

Yesss...more rat poison! I hope the coaches are heaping up a thanksgiving size helping of "People think we are untested and can't compete with the big boys!"
#11
I think based on many factors (Scoring, defense, etc) you could say this is the best BU team ever.
#12
Matt Jung nearly had an INT last night...just barely couldn't corral it as it hit the ground. His motor is just as high as when he was at Bethel, constantly getting involved in every play he can. Unsuprisingly, the Sconnie defense has been playing great the past couple of weeks. Pretty likely he's gonna be locked in as a starter right away next year.
#13
Quote from: GoldandBlueBU on November 19, 2025, 10:32:38 AM
Quote from: USee on November 18, 2025, 04:37:48 PMThe biggest bummer is the battle of attrition. It's hard to make it through the playoffs without injuries and playing higher level competition earlier increases the risk.

This was one reason I was happy to see the MIAC championship game go away.  It always seemed like BU came away from the "extra" game with SJU, with additional injuries right before the playoffs.

I suppose we could have the extra game on January 4th... :o

#14
Quote from: hazzben on November 17, 2025, 05:49:02 PMBethel vs NCC in the quarters, assuming chalk holds, is a round too early as well. The biggest issue is probably that the weakest 1 and 2 seed combo statistically also got the easiest quad.

Here's the deal though, if we really think Bethel and SJU are Top 5 teams, we should expect to play top teams in the tourney at some point. If Bethel is really Top 5 or Top 3 or Top 2 (pick your metric), then we should relish the chance to prove it on the field. This is a really young team. 15 new starters IIRC at the start of the year. You get better playing elite competition. We have two good, playoff experienced teams to beat before we even get a chance to measure up against the NCC dynasty. I hope we get to see that, but until then we get to geek out over some great football and it'll all get sorted on the field. Best time of the year IMO!!

I definitely am looking forward to how the team stacks up against NCC/UMU - I just wish it were UMU first  ;). I hope the team and staff is as well, while also not looking ahead too much. I want nothing more than to come out of Naperville or Alliance with a W. For both teams each-other would be the toughest team they've played yet.
#15
Quote from: hazzben on November 17, 2025, 04:27:59 PMSome Team stats going into the playoffs for key teams in MIAC quads (plus Mount because Bethel is ignoring NCC  ;) ).
National Rank listed in order for each team - Scoring O, Scoring D, Total O, Total D, Red Zone O, Red Zone D, Pass Eff, Pass Eff D, Rush O, Rush D, TO Margin, 1st Down O, 1st Down D, 3rd Down, 3rd Down D, 4th Down, 4th Down D

North Central: 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 6, 24, 11, 8, 25, 5, 3, 1 - Ave: 6.5
Bethel: 2, 2, 7, 6, 10, 6, 35, 6, 17, 5, 8, 2, 3, 7, 4, 27, 3 - Ave: 8.8
SJU: 3, 4, 3, 5, 11, 5, 6, 13, 92, 14, 79, 7, 11, 1, 35, 36, 49  - Ave: 22
UWRF: 10, 61, 1, 83, 43, 83, 58, 69, 19, 23, 43, 1, 80, 19, 40, 75, 19 - Ave: 42.8
Wartburg: 72, 5, 71, 32, 113, 32, 104, 31, 32, 4, 79, 55, 38, 43, 66, 10, 43 - Ave: 49 
Mount: 9, 14, 15, 48, 6, 48, 7, 11, 10, 58, 14, 48, 75, 27, 28, 2, 99 - Ave: 30.5
Wheaton: 12, 44, 23, 47, 54, 230, 9, 75, 98, 45, 68, 23, 68, 9, 70, 36, 126 - Ave: 61.2

Noteworthy:
- NCC Top 25 in every category, top 5 in 13.
- Bethel the clear number 2 statistically, and not far off NCC. Pass effeciency numbers are a bit deflated because of how often Drews take deep shots IMO.
- SJU looks like a Top 5 team, people keep sleeping on them nationally.
- UWRF's D is clearly their weakness, and the WIAC was not an offensively explosive league this year. That's a tough hurdle for a Stagg run, but it's a young unit that has improved over the year.
- Wartburg's O is the worst unit of this group by a wide margin. Their only elite categories are Scoring D and Rushing D.
- Wheaton scores points, converts 3rd downs, and bleeds pts in the redzone.
- SJU's passing offense is a great matchup for them against UWRF's leaky Pass D. Neither UWL or UWW had the passing game to exploit this.

Before running these numbers I thought SJU had a tough draw. I still do, but I honestly think they're the best team in that grouping. Bethel will have to get to NCC, and then still beat the defending champs and best team in the country on the road. If anything, this says to me Bethel potentially getting NCC in the quarterfinals is a bigger diservice than Wartburg getting all the quality in their pod. They don't have to beat every team, but they aren't statistically deserving of avoiding NCC or Mount until the Stagg, save for NPI.

To add to this, the Hansen ratings:

NCC 1
UWRF 2
Bethel 3
.
.
Mount Union 6

So it seems the tragedy is Bethel and NCC having to face off in QF, rather than UMU and NCC in Semis.