Quote from: UfanBill on Today at 12:27:16 AMUnion has a puzzling low NPI seeding, 37th out of 40, based mostly on their SOS completely out of their own control. Their "wins" included games over Hilbert 0-10, Buff St 1-9 and lest we forget one of their E8 crossovers Morrisville 0-10. Unfortunate

And Union's reward for being an AQ from one of the worst conferences in the country?* No bye, a first round road game against a Pool C team, and a second round game against Mount Union.

I imagine IC798891 would argue that that's what they deserve after opening their season with two lopsided OOC losses, and there's absolutely some truth to that. Still, a pretty brutal playoff draw nonetheless.

* According to Massey, the LL was 22nd out of 34 conferences this season, down from 5th last season (with a similar OOC record) and 4th in 2023.

Quote from: HSCTiger74 on Yesterday at 07:46:13 PMThis has been an interesting discussion, and I understand the frustration, but without knowing the details of every D3 conference isn't it safe to say that most of them have their own Hilbert who will drag down their NPI.

But do they have 2? (A Hilbert AND a Buff State). And are they associate, football-only members?

Thanks for doing the math, Johnny and Union.

I would add (as I did before, though somewhat confusingly) that not only does Ithaca have the impact of the Hilbert game dragging down their WPI, they also have the impact of Hilbert playing every of the LL team on their schedule as well. So a win against RPI gives Ithaca less of a boost because RPI's rating is negatively impacted by their having played Hilbert. A loss to Union hurts a little more because Union is ranked lower thanks to their having played Hilbert.

Ithaca, with 2 of 3 OOC games against top 20 opponents, didn't even come close to a Pool C bid. Coming into the weekend they weren't even in the discussion.

The unfortunate truth is that as long as Hilbert (and Buff State) remain associate members, and assuming neither suddenly becomes a more competitive program (Machiavelli gave a very nice breakdown of where these programs stand above), the LL as a conference has next to zero chance of seeing a two-loss team grab an at-large bid. Given the recent expansion of the playoff field and the fact that 5-0% of the at-large teams have 2 (or more losses) over the past two seasons, this is a shame, and not where you want to be as a conference.

According to the NPI playoff tracker, of the 13 at-large bids available this season, 6 will go to schools with 2 losses.

Ithaca, not even an honorable mention entering this weekend, ended 8-2 and 4 spots out of the final playoff spot. Their two losses were to the eventual LL champion, and to JHU, who entered the weekend with the #1 NPI but lost and ended #7.

Kind of have to wonder where Ithaca lands without Hilbert in the LL this season.

^ oh, and source for the above:

https://d3datacast.com/2025/11/09/2025-d3-football-playoff-npi-tracker/

Quote from: IC798891 on November 15, 2025, 08:43:50 AM2021's loss to Cortland was a coaching disaster class, from the most obvious onside kick ever baackfiring, to Swanstrom's failing basic football math in not trying for 2 at 26-14, to just once again leaving  winnable game on the field — and then complaining about not getting a Pool C bid when they controlled their own destiny and blew it.

Made even worse by following along with the RPI/Union game (detailed in the post above yours).

Ithaca either needed to win to secure at least a Pool C bid, or have Union win and nab the LL AQ.

Ahead 27-14, with Union ahead 17-7 in their game, it looked like they had it in the bag. From there, it was like watching a car wreck in slow motion...especially with what was happening with the Union game. There was about a 10 minute window there where Ithaca went from winning (they're in!) to having the kick blocked (dammit!) to RPI scoring the tying TD) (grrr!) to RPI missing the extra point (they're in!) to RPI recovering the onside kick (oh-oh...) to RPI kicking the winning field goal (dammit!).

What a roller coaster...

Quote from: IC798891 on November 14, 2025, 11:19:32 AM

Quote from: unionpalooza on November 13, 2025, 03:57:54 PMTo put this another way, can you think of a single compelling reason that Buff State or Hilbert SHOULD be in the LL?

You guys (all of you complaining about this) don't want to boot Buffalo State because they're not a "good fit" for the LL and they're an outlier geographically.

Interestingly, you completely ignored Union's question.

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 13, 2025, 10:51:54 PMFor many years, the Monon Bell game between DePauw and Wabash was a non-conference game.

Nice!

I live in Indianapolis now; the Cortaca of the Midwest!

Quote from: ICGrad on November 13, 2025, 02:54:06 PM

Quote from: Oline89 on November 13, 2025, 12:38:47 PMEnd of the season, time for an unpopular take.  Is there any other league in the country where the season ends with teams playing an OOC game?  I truly understand the popularity, history and nostalgia to Cortica, however, wouldn't it make sense if IC and Cortland were in the same league?  The game would actually have relevance to the other 7 teams in each league (LL/E8). 

Georgia (SEC) ends their season vs. Georgia Tech (ACC) every year. (Actually, Georgia's last two games this season are non-conference games)

Florida (SEC) ends their season vs. Florida State (ACC).

Oh, and Clemson plays South Carolina; Louisville plays Kentucky.

Interestingly, all of these are currently ACC/SEC games, but they didn't used to be. Florida State and Louisville only (relatively) recently joined the ACC.

I'm sure there are others; these are the ones that jumped to mind immediately.

Quote from: Oline89 on November 13, 2025, 12:38:47 PMEnd of the season, time for an unpopular take.  Is there any other league in the country where the season ends with teams playing an OOC game?  I truly understand the popularity, history and nostalgia to Cortica, however, wouldn't it make sense if IC and Cortland were in the same league?  The game would actually have relevance to the other 7 teams in each league (LL/E8). 

Georgia (SEC) ends their season vs. Georgia Tech (ACC) every year. (Actually, Georgia's last two games this season are non-conference games)

Florida (SEC) ends their season vs. Florida State (ACC).

Quote from: IC798891 on November 13, 2025, 12:06:51 PMTreating these "bottom feeders" like they're a permanent underclass is really baffling to me.

I get zero enjoyment in watching Ithaca beat up on teams to the tune of 65-3.

If Hilbert were an LL team, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Just don't understand the sense in adding a school as an "associate" in football when that team doesn't come close to matching the competitive footprint of the rest of the league - especially when we already have an associate that also doesn't match the competitive footprint.

If we didn't already have Buff State, who hasn't fielded a competitive team since before Covid, I would have far less of a problem with Hilbert.

Postseason hopes aside, I'd like to see the LL be as competitive as possible, top to bottom. Hell, I'd love to St Lawrence to turn the corner a bit and compete for titles (as Rochester has done this season for example...maybe not competing for titles yet, but certainly competing). It's good for the league when there are more strong teams.

Not sure why you see that as such a bad thing, but guess we'll agree to disagree.

Quote from: IC798891 on November 12, 2025, 02:21:13 PMI have no sympathy for LL teams. Handle your OOC schedule.

Yes, and no

I largely agree with your sentiments, and have said before that I feel that this is a down year for the LL. Probably a year in which they don't deserve more than just the AQ. So no real issues there.

That doesn't mean I think it's a good idea, long-term, watering down the LL brand with the inclusion of Hilbert. We now have not one, but two associate members in football, and both are, to put it mildly, bottom feeders - or to be more scientific, both are bottom 30 (out of 240) programs. That only significantly weakens the league, and hurts the standing of each and every team in the league.

For several years, Ithaca put significant effort into beefing up their OOC scheduling with an eye toward improving SoS and preparing for postseason play. This new agreement is a big step back for them, and for every LL team.

Here's hoping, when the LL-E8 arrangement is renegotiated in a year or so, assuming it is extended (and I think that's a safe assumption, given that it makes scheduling much easier and saves all of the schools money),that the LL swaps out Hilbert for a different E8 school as an associate member. But something tells me that isn't going to happen, and Hilbert is here to stay.

Ugh.

(I realize that was an oversimplification, but I can't edit. RPI's SoS doesn't directly reflect on Ithaca's overall SoS in quite that way, though their lowered SoS does results in a lowered overall ranking, which does hurt Ithaca. And round and round)

Quote from: unionpalooza on November 11, 2025, 11:39:27 AMYea just not many good OCC wins this year and with this new scheduling agreement its probably not getting any better.

Indeed, let's talk about how bad the E8 scheduling agreement and acceptance of Hilbert has been for the LL's playoff hopes.  ....
[/quote]

Excellent analysis. Thank you.

One other impact I would add, a tertiary effect if you will: The inclusion of Hilbert on the schedule of every LL team also lowers the SoS of every single other LL team on your schedule.

Not only does Ithaca take the SoS hit of having Hilbert on their schedule, but they also now have a game against SoS 122 RPI (who in 2024 were an SoS 42 team) and SoS 102 Union (who last season were SoS 56). It's a real clusterf-.

Quote from: Jonny Utah on November 10, 2025, 08:36:05 AMAnyway points scored doesn't really mean much.  The most important W:
TOP:
ITHACA: 34:16   
RPI:    25:44

Fun fact, Ithaca is 1-8 in TOP this year with only one win vs RPI. 

Interestingly, Ithaca's running game wasn't all that efficient against RPI; the averaged only 2.8 yards/rush. But they stuck with it as a compliment to their passing game, running the ball 42 times. Very effective overall strategy.

RPI ran the ball for almost 7 yards/rush. Crazy.

Quote from: Jonny Utah on November 10, 2025, 08:57:37 AM

Quote from: Bartman on November 10, 2025, 08:45:18 AMWell RPI gets knocked out of Receiving Votes in the poll, which is understandable. When was the last time no LL team received votes in the poll? Ithaca needs to beat Cortland to save the league's reputation   

Yea just not many good OCC wins this year and with this new scheduling agreement its probably not getting any better.

Year-over-year Strength of schedules of the top 4 Liberty League teams:

Hobart - 2024: 61 / 2025: 75
Ithaca - 2024: 37 / 2025: 117
RPI - 2024: 42 / 2025: 122
Union - 2024: 56 / 2025: 102

Of the 4, Hobart still has a game against Buff St, so they will take a hit, whereas the other 3 should all see their SoS rise (Union/RPI play each other, Ithaca plays Cortland). Hobart essentially swapped out a game against Keystone (ranked 210 in 2024) with Hilbert (ranked 232), explaining why their SoS hit was so mild.

But the Hilbert effect is real...

(source: Massey)