Quote from: stlawus on Yesterday at 06:49:37 PMQuote from: Ejay on Yesterday at 06:39:16 PMAdmittedly, I don't understand the NPI. Explain it to me like I'm 5. How does a team with a losing record and only 5 wins, only one of which was against a decent team, sit on the bubble?
Since SOS is 85% of the of NPI formula, if you have one decent win it does extremely heavy lifting especially since it comes with extra NPI benefit from a quality win bonus. Also since so many teams are top 10 in NPI on their schedule, the loss value against those teams is barely below their own NPI value so they don't get dinged a lot for losing. It's just a circular chain of nonsense by virtue of simply being in the NESCAC. A tie is usually worth around the value of your opponent's NPI, but Bates actually saw *benefit* from ties since the value was greater than their own NPI. So they were essentially getting credited for a full win despite tying. I have no idea why these were the dials to start, they were the biggest outlier out of all of the sports. NPI just means NESCAC Protection Index. Thankfully they are weighing ties more towards a loss next year so some of this should be taken care of.
As a former player who graduated just before the institution of NPI, it was always frustrating to see the number of completely uncompetitive tournament games. The NESCAC is undoubtedly the best conference in the country top to bottom. It is hard to otherwise quantify the physical and mental impact of playing 8 of the top 11 teams each week, plus often ranked out of conference opponents. Trinity beat a Hamilton team that ended up at 6, Bates beat 11th ranked Wesleyan while also drawing with Hamilton, Conn, Amherst, and Middlebury who make up 4 of the top 6. Looking at Oneonta's schedule, their best result is probably their draw against 16th ranked SLU who had an outstanding season, but also dropped results to the 131st and 44th ranked teams. NPI's weight toward strength of schedule ensures that the best teams get to play during the business end of the season and give us quantifiable differences to debate rather than the vague outcomes of the committee decision. The NESCAC is not just an elite conference by name, it has accounted for 9 of the last 12 teams to play in the National Championship game and 7 of the last 10 national champions.
This isn't to say that NESCAC teams can't be beat--Hamilton drew with 65th ranked Clarkson earlier in the season as well as some lopsided defeats to Williams and Tufts--but it is to say that the conference gets additional NPI weight because it has earned it over the last decade plus. Personally, I'd love to see SLU and Hamilton playing in the regular season due to geography and the level of the two programs. Hopefully we get to see more of these matchups with the influence of NPI.