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Messages - FourthAndShort

#1
Consequential day in the Centennial.

Great win for Muhlenberg. CMU with a little de ja vu of the hopkins game, with them letting the mules crawl back into it. It's a tough loss for CMU who had multiple opportunities to take the game. 

F&M seems to be the under-the-radar team to compete for the CC. Dominating performance against Ursinus as of this writing. With wins against Muhlenberg and Ursinus, F&M is putting themself in a good spot for a pool C, with room for 1 additional loss across the rest of their schedule.

Overall, the Centennial is shaping up to have at minimum 2 teams in the playoffs, and I could see 3 in many situations. It's a lot of moving parts, but (with the help of Logan Hansen's arsenal of tools he shares) here's the team-by-team playoff paths:

Hopkins can lose 3 games and still make the playoffs. They are the clear favorite for a Pool A.

Muhlenberg would be a playoff lock if they beat Hopkins, but should still be a pool C team with a loss to Hopkins only.

F&M as described above should be a pool C as a 2 loss team, with possibilities of a pool A.

CMU, as hard as it is to believe after today's loss, can win out and make the playoffs as a 3 loss team, although it appears they would need a little luck on their side. This is the most difficult playoff team to predict with purely wins. But their losses are now to a top WIAC contender in UWL, Hopkins, and now a 6-1 Muhlenberg.

More of a fun thought experiment, I am trying to envision a possible path for 4 CC teams to make the playoffs. It is obviously a long shot, and perhaps I'm flawed here, but here's what I came up with in two scenarios for this:

1. CMU wins out and squeezes in the last 1 or 2 pool C slots. This is the key for the scenario.
2. F&M wins out and only loses to CMU (notably they beat Hopkins). Finishes with 2 losses. 
3. Muhlenberg loses to Hopkins and finishes with 2 losses. They can also beat Hopkins and finish with 1 loss. 
4. Hopkins finishes with 1 loss to F&M or 2 losses to F&M and Muhlenberg.

As the playoff picture starts to become clearer, I expect the d3 experts will make this more of a topic of conversation.

How different the playoffs have become. The CC is no WIAC, but it has come a long way -- the addition of CMU, combined with the current set up of 3 out of conference games per team since the Landmark split, and NPI really showing that strong out of conference record is an absolute must, it may be possible to see more years of sustained success and multiple CC teams each year.


#2
Should be a fun one in the CC headlined by CM vs MC game.

Carnegie Mellon 35
Muhlenberg 27

Tough match-up where the team with the least mistakes comes out on top. CM leaves victorious but the game is closer than the score indicates. Dante Mahaffey has a big day with his legs to extend drives.

Ursinus 24
F&M 21

F&M isn't able to capitalize on their momentum after Muhlenberg. Ursinus bounces back in a much needed way.

McDaniel 10
Dickinson 31

The middle of the pack in the CC is too much for the green terror to come close.

Gettysburg 17
Johns Hopkins 53

The Bullets are overwhelmed by a Blue Jays offense that seems to have taken a big step up this year. Bay Harvey pushes downfield all afternoon with his arsenal of weapons headlined by Cole Crotty. 

#3
Muhlenberg has up years and down years, but they are always competitive and near the top of the conference. They are well coached and rarely get beaten convincingly.

CMU has earned the right to be the favorite based on strong play against a really tough schedule, but it will likely require 4 quarters of complementary football to win the way that is currently expected.