Thanks a ton for those calcs!

I suppose Trinity could get as high as #3 if they win and both St. Olaf and Chicago lose. That would probably also require Middlebury to win the NESCAC. Otherwise if Conn or Wesleyan wins NESCAC then Trinity would be limited to 4th at best.

Quote from: kansas hokie on Yesterday at 03:13:39 PMTop 4 thoughts...

Tufts - lowest they can drop to is 60.312 (Middlebury loss)
St. Olaf - lose 59.88; win 61.35
Augsburg - done. 60.309
Chicago - lose 59.106; win 60.37

Lynchburg - lose 58.33 ; win 59.72
Emory - lose 58.17;  win 59.44
Trinity - lose Berry 57.88; win Berry/lose SW 58.36; win tourney 59.97
Conn - win NESCAC 60.4
Wesleyan - win NESCAC 60.37

Tufts will be top 4 no matter what.

If Conn/Wesleyan win NESCAC, they are top 4.

next is a MIAC team or two (Olaf/Augsburg/both),

then Chicago if they beat Wash U,

then Trinity if they win their conference.

Lynchburg and Emory can sneak in there with an unexpected set of results (Tufts wins NESCAC, Chicago and Trinity lose, Emory would also need Lynchburg to lose).

How is Augsburg up to 60.3 after their loss?!

What are the shake-up scenarios that would change the top-4? I'm thinking the only teams that still have a chance to be top-4 are Tufts, St. Olaf, Augsburg, Chicago, and whoever wins the Conn/Wesleyan game.

Additionally, I think Tufts is the only team guaranteed to remain top-4 no matter what.

Non-NESCAC teams are probably hoping for Tufts to win the NESCAC to avoid a 2nd NESCAC team getting into top-4.

St. Olaf can move up with a win tomorrow over #11 Macalester, but it looks like a loss would drop them below Augsburg?

Chicago can move up with a win tomorrow over #15 WashU, but how high would that get their NPI? A Chicago loss means they could get hopscotched by Lynchburg and/or Conn/Wesleyan (if either wins NESCAC, or potentially even if one of them loses to Tufts in the NESCAC finals).

I assume Lynchburg can't get over 60.0 even if they defeat #26 Wash&Lee? And same for Emory even if they defeat #41 Rochester?

I'm thinking Tufts worst-case is finishing at #4 but still above Augsburg.

Quote from: kansas hokie on November 03, 2025, 10:45:58 PMTop 4 seed conversation....

Tufts - win NESCAC semi, top 4 guaranteed. Lose and 60.42 is NPI number, should be good for top 4 still

Augsburg - loss tonight drops them to 59.74

St. Olaf - lose and no top 4 (semi loss = 58.9; final loss - 59.2), win conference = 60.63

Conn/Wesleyan - NESCAC semi, one jumps up, one falls down. Winner has chance for top 4, but needs to win NESCAC to do it.

Trinity - 60.01 is they beat Southwestern in final. 59.2 is they beat anyone other that Southwestern in final.

Chicago - 59.62 if they beat Wash U

Emory - 59.44 if they beat Rochester

I think that's the only teams that can make the top 4. Tufts, St. Olaf, Trinity, Augsburg is where I think it will land.

Midd is playing good lately and their defense appears strong in spite of their record. They have one of the best GAA in the NESCAC but they couldn't score a goal until the last 2 weeks. I still lean towards a Tufts win in the semis. They are well rounded with very strong D/GK and an impotent Midd will have a hard time scoring.

Someone brought up the question of whether Tufts can make a run in the NCAA tourney with so many of their goals coming from PKs but the reality is they are putting other teams in difficulty which is why they draw the PKs in the first place.

IMO we'll be looking at Conn/Tufts on Sunday.

Regarding NPI numbers, has anyone done calculations for either of these scenarios?
- Tufts lose to Midd: what would Tufts NPI be?
- Conn defeat Wesleyan and then defeat Midd in finals: what would Conn NPI be?

I'm thinking Conn or Wesleyan would sneak into top-4 NPI if they win the NESCAC. Hard to see Tufts dropping out of the top-4 but I don't know how to do the exact calculations.

Quote from: nescac fan246 on November 04, 2025, 04:22:28 PMThis is one of the funniest posts I've seen on the boards. Tufts has had great regular seasons for the past two years and it's amounted to nothing for them. A first place team on a "revenge tour" playing a subpar Bates team in the first round usually doesn't end in a dicey 1-0 win from a penalty, which seems to be Tufts' favorite way to score this year. It looks more like Dezotell has found the right balance of whining from the bench and bribes for the refs than a good roster this year.

Tufts has already shown that they're not a playoff team again this year, so you can say they're "DAWGS" going into this weekend as much as you want, but that's not gonna change what they all know- this Middlebury team has been edging greatness for years and this is the year it will all come to fruition.

Until Dezotell gains the confidence to create a real soccer team that doesn't play straight up haram ball, I will never give him credit for being a good coach. My left big toe could coach a team to play on the counter and lump in long throws. Dezotell is an old school NESCAC coach, who's stuck in the past and can't see that the game is changing around him. We've already seen Tufts' Brexit counterpart in Amherst lose this postseason. Inverting Wingbacks and Xg are here to stay and if teams can't adapt, they'll be left in the dust of innovators like Middlebury.

Lol, you're a nut.