More useless trivia that is probably only interesting to me:

Here's how every NESCAC team has been knocked out of NCAAs since 2021. I cannot find NPI rankings for 2023 but otherwise I'm referring to NPI rankings as of tournament selection date.

25 #1 Tuft Champs
25 #7 Conn tied #9 Bowdoin s16
25 #9 Bowd loss #1 Tufts in e8
25 #13 Wes loss #32 second rd
25 #15 Mid loss #21 second rd
25 #17 Wil loss #3 s16
25 #28 Amh loss #25 first round

24 #1 Midd loss #4 Amherst semis
24 #2 Tuft tie #32 second rd
24 #4 Amhe champs
24 #5 Conn runner up
24 #6 Will tie #18 s16
24 #16 Wes loss #10 second rd
24 #24 Bow loss #8 second rd
24 #30 Ham tie #12 second rd

23 Amhe runners-up
23 Midd loss to Amherst in e8
23 Conn tie in e8
23 Tuft loss in s16

22 #3 Amhe tie #31 in s16
22 #6 Bowd loss #31 in e8
22 #16 Mid loss #49 first round
22 #23 Wil runners-up
22 #24 Tuf loss #22 second rd

21 #1 Tuft loss #3 Conn in e8
21 #2 Amhe tie #3 Conn in finals
21 #3 Conn tie #2 Amherst in finals
21 #8 Wesl - not selected
21 #14 Mid loss #2 Amherst in e8

101 matches and only 1 time has a NESCAC team been bumped by an opponent that was ranked worse than 32nd.

63-18-20 overall

12-7-2 for NESCAC teams ranked 5th or below in their own conference with 2 teams making it to the Sweet 16 and one team making it to the Elite 8. Interestingly, this group (9 teams) has never been bumped by an opponent ranked worse than 25th. This group is 5-6-2 against teams ranked #44 or better but 4 of the 6 losses were against Top-10 teams and the two ties (loss on PKs) were #12 and #18. They are 7-0-0 against teams all ranked 58th or worse.

Quote from: paclassic89 on November 09, 2026, 05:28:54 PMSorry, small sample size.  We can cherry pick data ranges all day to prove points (and I think that's probably what you do on various message boards)

I'm not the same Sandon as any other message boards so feel free to be mad at the other one if needed.

I also don't care about NCAA selection criteria; I simply have crunched the numbers for recent seasons - particularly 2021-current as NPI has gained favor and committee discretion has lessened. NESCAC do well at NCAAs and if you want an arbitrary rule or you simply dislike the NESCAC that's fine but the data demonstrates that any NESCAC teams participating in NCAA perform as well or better than similarly ranked teams even if the NESCAC teams have fewer wins and more ties going into the tournament.

Quote from: stlawus on November 09, 2026, 09:21:30 PMIt's not like they shouldn't be.  They have every single recruiting advantage possible, they should be a quality league. I'd like to see a lot of these coaches coach anywhere else and see how good they actually are.

Dezotell may be an outlier but he successfully clawed his way through the coaching ranks in New England/New York before leading Tufts.

Quote from: paclassic89 on November 09, 2026, 04:21:04 PMFor comparison, here are the 40 non-NESCAC teams ranked #6-30 in the 2024 and 2025 tournaments, the same NPI range these NESCAC teams were in

If you cap the NESCAC teams, you are not gaining teams with NPI ranks 6 or 15... you're gaining NPIs ranked ~31-40.

Quote from: paclassic89 on November 09, 2026, 04:21:04 PM

Group (2024-25)	NCAA record	vs NPI top 30	vs outside top 30	1-goal losses
NESCAC 5th+ bids (7 teams)	8-5-2	1-5-2	7-0-0	4 of 5
Non-NESCAC teams ranked #6-30 (40 teams)	49-31-15	19-23-12	30-8-3	19 of 31

Other teams in that NPI range regularly beat or tie top-30 opponents (31 of 54 games without a loss). The NESCAC 5th+ bids managed it in 3 of 8. If they really were "consistently among the 30 best teams in the country," their record against the other 30 best should look like the comparison group's, and it doesn't.

On the one-goal losses: that's just soccer. 61% of the comparison group's losses were also by one goal. A narrow loss to a better team doesn't show you're as good as that team.

The sample also starts after COVID. Add 2017 and 2018 and three more 5th+ bids go 0-2-1, all first-round exits.

To be fair, these teams aren't frauds. They beat the teams they should beat, and their wins per team (1.14) aren't far off the comparison group's (1.38). But "decent tournament team that wins its opener" isn't the argument. The question is whether the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th-best NESCAC team is better than the non-NESCAC team it bumps out, and the record against top-30 opponents suggests the NPI ranks them higher than their results justify.

You're not doing an apples-to-apples comparison.

Here's a better comparison. 2024 and 2025 I looked at all AUTO QUALIFIERS with NPI rankings between 22-42. Teams that would've been on the bubble if they had not won their conference. That includes 14 teams whose combined records were 175-36-63 in those two seasons.

How do they perform at NCAAs?

In 2024 those teams were a combined 4-5-3 (Cortland NPI 22, Oglethorpe, Rowan, Claremont, Messiah, Vassar and Stevens NPI 41).

In 2025 those AQ teams were a combined 7-7-0 (Dickinson NPI 22, Catholic, Rowan, Luther, Calvin, Depauw and Oneonta NPI 42) with 3 of those wins coming from Dickinson.

So a total of 11-12-3.
7 out of 14 teams out in the 1st round with 6 losses and 1 tie.
Only 3 teams won more than 1 game: Claremont (2-1 in 2024, Dickinson 3-1 in 2025, and Rowan 2-1 in 2025).

Versus 8-5-2 for NESCACs ranked 5+ in the conference in the same 2 year time period with only 1 out of 6 falling in the opening round.

Quote from: paclassic89 on November 09, 2026, 01:37:18 PM

Year	Team	NESCAC rank among bids	NCAA wins	How it ended
2022	Tufts	5th	1	L 0-2 vs SUNY Oneonta
2024	Williams	5th	2	L on PKs vs Washington & Lee
2024	Wesleyan	6th	1	L 0-1 vs Babson
2024	Bowdoin	7th	1	L 0-3 vs Trinity (TX)
2024	Hamilton	8th	1	L on PKs vs Kenyon
2025	Middlebury	5th	1	L 0-1 vs Wheaton (MA)
2025	Williams	6th	2	L 1-2 vs St. Olaf
2025	Amherst	7th	0	L 0-1 (OT) vs Catholic

Are the above teams 9-6-2 in NCAAs since covid with 4 of the losses being 1-goal games? Seems like that would demonstrate they deserve to be there and are consistently amongst the 30 best teams in the country?

My guesses:

Look at the women's brackets first; it seems like they intend to host 2nd weekend at

• higher of Rowan or Tufts
• higher of WashU or UW-LaCrosse or North Central Ill
• higher of Chicago or Williams
• higher of WashLee or Hopkins

For the men I'd guess these are the contenders for 2nd weekend:

• Williams or Amherst or CWRU
• Midwest [but not in Chicago due to likely women's overlap](Tufts men travel)
• higher of Middlebury or Hamilton
• Conn or Scranton; or perhaps Kenyon or Carnegie if Conn falls first weekend

Seems like right-half of bracket has the easier road to the final 4 and fewer contenders for the actual championship. I'm sure Middlebury and Conn are happy with their draws.

Left-half has so many big names including each of the last 4 winners, more geographic diversity, and both of the undefeated teams in CWRU and St. Olaf.

Quote from: ronk on November 08, 2026, 03:40:34 PMRe NCAA tourney hosting: multiple sports aren't allowed to be hosted by a school on the same weekend; in basketball they alternate priority by gender. Is the same done in soccer?
 Scranton has won the AQ in 3 sports this weekend and would seem to host in at least one(men's soccer). The 3rd sport is field hockey. How would they be affected by hosting decisions in soccer? Who would have priority between the sports?
  I suspect this has come up in the past with schools(thinking NESCAC) that have excellent teams in these sports.

In 2026 men's soccer has priority first weekend, women's soccer has priority 2nd weekend. Not sure if other sports are considered. 

NPI simulator has been updated recently and seems to properly reflect AQs from games that ended within the last hour or two.

Look how close positions 5-6-7 are: 14-thousandths separating them meaning when the official NCAA numbers are released you could potentially see NESCAC with all top-6 positions and CWRU down to 7th.

Looks like NESCAC might get 9 into the big show this year (Bates may sneak in) and Trinity is very close, too.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/msoc/

Quote from: headmaster on November 07, 2026, 05:19:23 PMWilliams this, Middlebury that and guess who is in the final? Tufts and Amherst just get it done in the postseason. Amherst on a great run to solidify their spot in the big dance and Tufts with a gutsy win with 10 men. Excited for tomorrow's final where I think Tufts defends their crown

Boomshakalaka!

The unofficial NPI was updated about an hour ago and now shows Bates having a shot for an at-large bid! https://d3datacast.com/npi/msoc/

Quote from: BlueJay95 on November 08, 2026, 10:19:10 AMSomething has to hopefully change with the dials adjustments next year. Seven out of first eight is ludicrous. Perhaps someone who dives deeper into this can explain. Rowan and Montclair crash out of protected top 8 last night without playing and Montclair going from 8 to 14! Perhaps most ludicrous is 5-6-4 Bates going from 51 to 38 without playing. Could they move down even further today? The bracket release will be VERY interesting.

It looks like this will be addressed next year, particularly with the discount for ties.

For example Amherst-Tufts today. If they tie, Amherst would score 61.5 and Tufts would score 60.3.

Next year, the same result would only count for 55.3 and 54.3 which would have a massive effect on NESCAC since they don't do OT in their 10-game conference season.

Quote from: Kuiper on October 05, 2026, 06:27:05 PMThe Championships Committee recently approved a decision by the Men's Soccer Committee to change its dials for the NPI calculation effective for Fall 2027

Men's soccer will make the following changes, some of which seems to pull back a little on the initial laser focus on opponent quality above everything.  Is it a sign of pushback on the advantages for NESCAC and other strong conferences getting too many tournament slots?  Maybe.

1.  Win%/SoS%

This dial controls how much emphasis goes to winning versus the strength-of-schedule.  Men's soccer initially was worried that teams would sacrifice strong opponents for easy wins by going away from the regional rankings approach and set this dial at 15%/85%.  Women's soccer, however, went with 20%/80%.  Men's soccer has now adopted the women's standard and moved to 20%/80%. It's still more emphasis on hard schedules than other sports like lacrosse, which is 25/75, but it is more in line with other team sports

2.  QWB

The Quality Win Bonus is another dial that rewards scheduling harder opponents.  It was originally set at 54 with a .750 multiplier, but it has been reduced to 51.5 with a .600 multiplier.  Not sure the exact rational for the individual numbers, but a .750 multiplier was significantly more than many other sports.

3.  Ties

It looks like they want to encourage teams to go for wins rather than to play from the start for the ties by bunkering.  It has been a .500 for ties, so each team got half a win, but now it will be .450 for a tie, which effectively means that a tie is worth a little less than half a win.  For a weaker team, that's still better than losing, but for two strong teams, this "tie discount" or "tie penalty," may have an effect on tactics.

 

Quote from: stlawus on November 07, 2026, 03:51:56 PMBubble burst, Plattsburgh wins the SUNYAC after pk's against Cortland.

That's gonna be tough for Babson.

Crazy day in NESCAC. Tufts and Amherst both advance on PKs. Hamilton and Amherst NPI will rise while Tufts will likely drop a small amount.

UAA Emory goes down and likely out of NCAA.

Chicago up 2-1 over WashU and with ~13 to play. WashU needs a tie to have a chance at NCAA

FWIW Amherst knocked off #1 Willams at Williams in PKs. Crazy game.

This Williams-Amherst game has been bonkers.

Watch the first ~6-7 min of 2nd half for an emotional rollercoaster.

And again with about 19' to go in 2nd half for a couple minutes.

Quote from: Kuiper on November 06, 2026, 07:59:31 PMBig upset in the SAA tournament!

Rhodes 1 - Southwestern 0

Since Southwestern should be safely within the At Large zone, it looks like the SAA will have two teams get bids.

Trinity plays Rhodes in the finals.

Southewestern will drop to ~21.

Salem State at 1-1 with about 31 left to play. Looks like it's just pouring rain

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