FB: Centennial Conference

[unionpalooza]

We have a showdown this Sat in the conference, #17 Carnegie Mellon @ #3 Johns Hopkins

Zero chatter on this board even though the CC is one of the top conferences this year in D3 football. The winner of this game will likely be the CC champs. Any insight into this game anyone?

There was never any chatter on this board. It's unfortunate because a lot folk interact with the D3 team outside of the board.

It's like your post summoned the JV posters out of the ether to suddenly appear and pronounce their team unbeatable.  Love it.

[8i Technique]

Johns Hopkins has defeated Muhlenberg College 12 times in the last 15 years they have played, including winning the last 3 games in a row, and 8 of the last 10. Hopkins also owns the longest win streak in the series – 8 games from 2011 to 2018.

Any notion that Muhlenberg College would be competitive against the Jays this season is simply delusional. Centennial Conference coaches agree – Muhlenberg College was chosen to finish 5th in the 8-team conference and didn't receive a single first place vote. Middle of the pack is about right for them in 2025.

The ease of victory will define this year's walkover. Nevertheless, JHU fans will cheer for Muhlenberg College when they represent the conference in the Centennial -MAC Bowl Challenge again this year.

There will be no convincing you within the this forum. Let us see if the CC preseason ranking holds any water, come November 1.

As for your closing, the postseason comradery is commended and repaid in reciprocity.

[MRMIKESMITH]

We have a showdown this Sat in the conference, #17 Carnegie Mellon @ #3 Johns Hopkins

Zero chatter on this board even though the CC is one of the top conferences this year in D3 football. The winner of this game will likely be the CC champs. Any insight into this game anyone?

There was never any chatter on this board. It's unfortunate because a lot folk interact with the D3 team outside of the board.

It's like your post summoned the JV posters out of the ether to suddenly appear and pronounce their team unbeatable.  Love it.

I wasn't trying to be rude or tounge in cheek either. I was just pointing out that the conference is one of the best conferences in all of D3 and they do interact on other social media platforms with D3Football and others. It is great to see good chatter. There are 4 to 5 teams that could end in the Top 40 by year-end and possibly 2/3 in Top 25. 

[8i Technique]

We have a showdown this Sat in the conference, #17 Carnegie Mellon @ #3 Johns Hopkins

Zero chatter on this board even though the CC is one of the top conferences this year in D3 football. The winner of this game will likely be the CC champs. Any insight into this game anyone?

There was never any chatter on this board. It's unfortunate because a lot folk interact with the D3 team outside of the board.

It's like your post summoned the JV posters out of the ether to suddenly appear and pronounce their team unbeatable.  Love it.

The Mules are certainly 'beatable'; case and point, F&M.

My prior callout to our JHU supporter was MC's track record against high-caliber competition (including JHU) at Scotty Wood Stadium.

The $25,000 question: Can their defense solve the passing game shortfall before their two strongest competitors come to Allentown?

I wouldn't put money on MC winning either game---but I do feel they possess the offensive fire-power to stay within striking distance on their home turf.

DIG IN

[CMU24]

Carnegie Mellon travels to Muhlenberg this Sat. My guess is the winner will be able to make the playoffs and the loser will not. I believe this will be a good game, CMU did not play there best game last week after nearly beating Hopkins and Muhlenberg is coming off a strong showing. The CC is getting a lot of love in the NPI rankings and this game should be one of the better D3 games this week. What does everyone think of this match-up?

[FourthAndShort]

Muhlenberg has up years and down years, but they are always competitive and near the top of the conference. They are well coached and rarely get beaten convincingly.

CMU has earned the right to be the favorite based on strong play against a really tough schedule, but it will likely require 4 quarters of complementary football to win the way that is currently expected.

[8i Technique]

Carnegie Mellon travels to Muhlenberg this Sat. My guess is the winner will be able to make the playoffs and the loser will not. I believe this will be a good game, CMU did not play there best game last week after nearly beating Hopkins and Muhlenberg is coming off a strong showing. The CC is getting a lot of love in the NPI rankings and this game should be one of the better D3 games this week. What does everyone think of this match-up?

DICKINSON 42 
McDANIEL  14

After letting the F&M game slip away, Dickinson takes its Red Devil anger out on the Terror.

JOHNS HOPKINS 45
GETTYSBURG 21

Hopkins jumps out early (as they should) and cruises. The Bullet's offense keeps the line respectable.

F&M 31
URSINUS 35

Ursinus's enjoys a signature victory over a talented CC foe.

CMU 34
MUHLENBERG 38


As I stated last week, CMU is the more talented team. I won't be surprised if they outgain the Mules by 50-100 total yards, with JM4 taking advantage of the MC pass Defense. But, as the field shortens, the Mule's Defense has the ability to hold CMU to FGs on multiple occasions.

For the Mules to pull this one out, they must avoid turnovers, stay balanced with play calls and let Mahaffey cook. Should he be able to limit turnovers and sacks, extend drives with his legs and find his big play receivers, this game is within reach.

[The Man]

No surprise that Johns Hopkins leads the Division III Football NPI rankings.

Blue Jays will run the table and earn the No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs.

[CMU24]

Last year when CMU was in the PAC, 3 teams got into the playoffs. The CC this year is showing that same kind of depth  and perhaps 3 get in. There are less "easy W's" in the CC for sure, the top teams have to stay focused each week to ensure victory. Should be an exciting next few weeks in the conference, looking forward to chatting with everyone on here about the outcomes. Good luck to all your teams this week!

[8i Technique]

Last year when CMU was in the PAC, 3 teams got into the playoffs. The CC this year is showing that same kind of depth  and perhaps 3 get in. There are less "easy W's" in the CC for sure, the top teams have to stay focused each week to ensure victory. Should be an exciting next few weeks in the conference, looking forward to chatting with everyone on here about the outcomes. Good luck to all your teams this week!

As a 3 Loss US-River Falls didn't get in last year, the question is if Muhlenberg's win over Endicott or CMU's wins over Chicago and Berry could carry either into the tournament with a 3rd 'L'.

The alternative outcome would be a CMU win at Muhlenberg followed by a Mule win over JHU. That scenerio (without furhter upsets) would put CMU in a prime position at 8-2 with wins over Berry, Chicago and Muhlenberg, as well as Muhlenberg at 8-2 with wins over Endicott and JHU.

Counting the minutes to Saturday afternoon...

[FourthAndShort]

Should be a fun one in the CC headlined by CM vs MC game.

Carnegie Mellon 35
Muhlenberg 27

Tough match-up where the team with the least mistakes comes out on top. CM leaves victorious but the game is closer than the score indicates. Dante Mahaffey has a big day with his legs to extend drives.

Ursinus 24
F&M 21

F&M isn't able to capitalize on their momentum after Muhlenberg. Ursinus bounces back in a much needed way.

McDaniel 10
Dickinson 31

The middle of the pack in the CC is too much for the green terror to come close.

Gettysburg 17
Johns Hopkins 53

The Bullets are overwhelmed by a Blue Jays offense that seems to have taken a big step up this year. Bay Harvey pushes downfield all afternoon with his arsenal of weapons headlined by Cole Crotty. 

[FourthAndShort]

Consequential day in the Centennial.

Great win for Muhlenberg. CMU with a little de ja vu of the hopkins game, with them letting the mules crawl back into it. It's a tough loss for CMU who had multiple opportunities to take the game. 

F&M seems to be the under-the-radar team to compete for the CC. Dominating performance against Ursinus as of this writing. With wins against Muhlenberg and Ursinus, F&M is putting themself in a good spot for a pool C, with room for 1 additional loss across the rest of their schedule.

Overall, the Centennial is shaping up to have at minimum 2 teams in the playoffs, and I could see 3 in many situations. It's a lot of moving parts, but (with the help of Logan Hansen's arsenal of tools he shares) here's the team-by-team playoff paths:

Hopkins can lose 3 games and still make the playoffs. They are the clear favorite for a Pool A.

Muhlenberg would be a playoff lock if they beat Hopkins, but should still be a pool C team with a loss to Hopkins only.

F&M as described above should be a pool C as a 2 loss team, with possibilities of a pool A.

CMU, as hard as it is to believe after today's loss, can win out and make the playoffs as a 3 loss team, although it appears they would need a little luck on their side. This is the most difficult playoff team to predict with purely wins. But their losses are now to a top WIAC contender in UWL, Hopkins, and now a 6-1 Muhlenberg.

More of a fun thought experiment, I am trying to envision a possible path for 4 CC teams to make the playoffs. It is obviously a long shot, and perhaps I'm flawed here, but here's what I came up with in two scenarios for this:

1. CMU wins out and squeezes in the last 1 or 2 pool C slots. This is the key for the scenario.
2. F&M wins out and only loses to CMU (notably they beat Hopkins). Finishes with 2 losses. 
3. Muhlenberg loses to Hopkins and finishes with 2 losses. They can also beat Hopkins and finish with 1 loss. 
4. Hopkins finishes with 1 loss to F&M or 2 losses to F&M and Muhlenberg.

As the playoff picture starts to become clearer, I expect the d3 experts will make this more of a topic of conversation.

How different the playoffs have become. The CC is no WIAC, but it has come a long way -- the addition of CMU, combined with the current set up of 3 out of conference games per team since the Landmark split, and NPI really showing that strong out of conference record is an absolute must, it may be possible to see more years of sustained success and multiple CC teams each year.

[CMU24]

CMU handed over another victory in the 4th qtr and your prediction in this game was spot on. Muhlenberg never quit and CMU's lack of a running game(or lack of trying to run) was the difference. It will be tough for CMU to get into the playoffs this year, a shame but you got to tip the cap to a feisty Mules team.

Muhlenberg has up years and down years, but they are always competitive and near the top of the conference. They are well coached and rarely get beaten convincingly.

CMU has earned the right to be the favorite based on strong play against a really tough schedule, but it will likely require 4 quarters of complementary football to win the way that is currently expected.