FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[gobigred425]

SJU fans never disappoint. One of the most bizarre reactions I've seen on this board when their team wins by 50 and clinches the conference title.

[DuffMan]

Well, I just came downstairs, and the Mrs. has the gas fireplace on, so I guess I am out. Arrgh!

[BDB]

Well, I just came downstairs, and the Mrs. has the gas fireplace on, so I guess I am out. Arrgh!

Well, I just came downstairs, and the Mrs. has the gas fireplace on, so I guess I am out. Arrgh!

LOL, not sure who's still holding the line anymore. You may still be the winner.

[GoldandBlueBU]

The king is dead!

[jakeMN91]

With a couple of upsets around the country today, Bethel now sits as first team out of at large consideration. Might not need anything out of the ordinary next week to get in. If UMHB loses to Hardin Simmons, i think Bethel is in.

I think they are in with a win next week against CSS. If I'm reading this correctly,  Bethel is currently sitting in the last at-large spot.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

[art76]

With a couple of upsets around the country today, Bethel now sits as first team out of at large consideration. Might not need anything out of the ordinary next week to get in. If UMHB loses to Hardin Simmons, i think Bethel is in.

I think they are in with a win next week against CSS. If I'm reading this correctly,  Bethel is currently sitting in the last at-large spot.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

Wow - been busy all day - only able to check my phone for updates - never would have thought after looking at least weeks numbers that BU would make up all that ground in a single week. I thought for sure I'd be biting my nails into next Sunday for definitive information - and maybe we still do?

[sjujohnnie]

Who's still in the running? I think I'm good until at least Thursday just looking at the weather forecast tornight & can probably make it deep into next week if need be!

[OzJohnnie]

Wow - been busy all day - only able to check my phone for updates - never would have thought after looking at least weeks numbers that BU would make up all that ground in a single week. I thought for sure I'd be biting my nails into next Sunday for definitive information - and maybe we still do?

BU was kissed on the d*** this week, as they say in Australia.  On the death watch, it was blood all over the nation and the blood suited BU to a tee, vaulting you into the playoff window.

UW-River Falls, Lost
Brockport, Lost
Ursinus, Lost
Case Western Reserve, Lost
UW-Eau Claire, Lost
Mount Union, Lost
Heidelberg, Won, but gained only 1.08 to Bethel's 1.66
John Carroll, Won, but strength of schedule slipped (55.14 to 54.70)



But the death watch is far from over.  There are many results needed to keep BU in the playoff picture.  This is the weekend they need to finish as high as possible:

Highest finish: 7th of 11 at-large

All of these:

Friday: Rowan over Montclair State.
Teams ahead losing:
Coast Guard over Merchant Marine.
Wabash over DePauw.
Johns Hopkins over Franklin & Marshall, plus Dickinson over Muhlenberg. That gives Dickinson the Centennial bid and leaves F&M at-large at 62.87.
Williams over Amherst.
Teams behind losing:
Trinity (Conn.) over Wesleyan.
Utica over Brockport.
North Central over Illinois Wesleyan.
Bethel's own number: Saint John's over St. Olaf and Concordia-Moorhead over Carleton. With the North Central win, that keeps Bethel at about 64.20, above River Falls' best of 64.05.



And staying in the bubble will take some good results from around the country:

Last spot: 11th of 11

Bethel stays in as long as every team that passes it is offset by one that drops below it.

Results that put a team ahead of Bethel:

Brockport over Utica.
Montclair State over Rowan.
Wesleyan over Trinity (Conn.), unless Amherst also loses. Then Trinity just takes Amherst's place.
Illinois Wesleyan over North Central. This is the worst one: it also drops Bethel to about 63.74, which lets River Falls (64.05), Heidelberg (63.92) and John Carroll (63.81) pass if they win.

Results that drop a team below Bethel:

Coast Guard over Merchant Marine (63.57).
Wabash over DePauw (63.50).
Johns Hopkins over F&M (62.87), with Dickinson beating Muhlenberg.
Williams over Amherst (~60–61), unless Wesleyan also wins.

Combinations that leave Bethel exactly 11th:

No upsets on either list.
Any equal number from each list. For example, Brockport and Montclair win while Merchant Marine and DePauw lose.
The outer limit is four and four.
Against Bethel: Brockport, Montclair and Illinois Wesleyan win, plus one of River Falls, Heidelberg or John Carroll (the other two lose).
For Bethel: all four teams on the second list lose, and Trinity beats Wesleyan.
One more result against Bethel and it's 12th.



Lastly, there's this knuckleball:

If Lake Forest or Trinity (Texas) loses their game and their conference title, they could land just above Bethel.


So, there you go.  Keep hitting refresh on the d3football results page like a rat getting snacks from a maze dispenser.

[Robert Zimmerman]

Still in! Although two of my kids unexpectedly came home from college this weekend and I had to listen to them b!tch about the cold non-stop. With the wife in sunny California until Thursday, I think I can stay in it until then.

[sju56321]

Funny how SJU fans want more than a conference championship-go figure.
Duff-I hear you, you know the game-I'm just perpetually worried.

[Mister36]

Wow - been busy all day - only able to check my phone for updates - never would have thought after looking at least weeks numbers that BU would make up all that ground in a single week. I thought for sure I'd be biting my nails into next Sunday for definitive information - and maybe we still do?

BU was kissed on the d*** this week, as they say in Australia.  On the death watch, it was blood all over the nation and the blood suited BU to a tee, vaulting you into the playoff window.

UW-River Falls, Lost
Brockport, Lost
Ursinus, Lost
Case Western Reserve, Lost
UW-Eau Claire, Lost
Mount Union, Lost
Heidelberg, Won, but gained only 1.08 to Bethel's 1.66
John Carroll, Won, but strength of schedule slipped (55.14 to 54.70)



But the death watch is far from over.  There are many results needed to keep BU in the playoff picture.  This is the weekend they need to finish as high as possible:

Highest finish: 7th of 11 at-large

All of these:

Friday: Rowan over Montclair State.
Teams ahead losing:
Coast Guard over Merchant Marine.
Wabash over DePauw.
Johns Hopkins over Franklin & Marshall, plus Dickinson over Muhlenberg. That gives Dickinson the Centennial bid and leaves F&M at-large at 62.87.
Williams over Amherst.
Teams behind losing:
Trinity (Conn.) over Wesleyan.
Utica over Brockport.
North Central over Illinois Wesleyan.
Bethel's own number: Saint John's over St. Olaf and Concordia-Moorhead over Carleton. With the North Central win, that keeps Bethel at about 64.20, above River Falls' best of 64.05.



And staying in the bubble will take some good results from around the country:

Last spot: 11th of 11

Bethel stays in as long as every team that passes it is offset by one that drops below it.

Results that put a team ahead of Bethel:

Brockport over Utica.
Montclair State over Rowan.
Wesleyan over Trinity (Conn.), unless Amherst also loses. Then Trinity just takes Amherst's place.
Illinois Wesleyan over North Central. This is the worst one: it also drops Bethel to about 63.74, which lets River Falls (64.05), Heidelberg (63.92) and John Carroll (63.81) pass if they win.

Results that drop a team below Bethel:

Coast Guard over Merchant Marine (63.57).
Wabash over DePauw (63.50).
Johns Hopkins over F&M (62.87), with Dickinson beating Muhlenberg.
Williams over Amherst (~60–61), unless Wesleyan also wins.

Combinations that leave Bethel exactly 11th:

No upsets on either list.
Any equal number from each list. For example, Brockport and Montclair win while Merchant Marine and DePauw lose.
The outer limit is four and four.
Against Bethel: Brockport, Montclair and Illinois Wesleyan win, plus one of River Falls, Heidelberg or John Carroll (the other two lose).
For Bethel: all four teams on the second list lose, and Trinity beats Wesleyan.
One more result against Bethel and it's 12th.



Lastly, there's this knuckleball:

If Lake Forest or Trinity (Texas) loses their game and their conference title, they could land just above Bethel.


So, there you go.  Keep hitting refresh on the d3football results page like a rat getting snacks from a maze dispenser.

Yep, Bethel has 87% chance to get in according to Hansen if they win against CSS...some help would kick them up the seedings a bit to solidify it.

[art76]

So, there you go.  Keep hitting refresh on the d3football results page like a rat getting snacks from a maze dispenser.

Thanx Oz! So I went down the rabbit hole using the info you posted, and if I did the math right, (suspect always), I count 13 games Bethel needs to keep an eye on - provided it takes care of business with the Saints coming to town on Saturday.

So I did what I've always done and taken a look at current records of those 26 teams and here's my summation (remember it is suspect):

3 games unlikely to upset, but anything can happen in a football game, so not likely to help BU.

Coast Guard over Merchant Marine.
Wabash over DePauw.
Johns Hopkins over Franklin & Marshall.


2 games are toss-ups in my mind. Maybe they help, but maybe they don't.

Rowan over Montclair State.
Utica over Brockport.

3 games where the team with the better record should win, but might not - so hopeful for BU fans.

Williams over Amherst.
Lake Forest over Chicago.
Trinity (Conn.) over Wesleyan.

And lastly, 5 games should go chalk and help BU.

Dickinson over Muhlenberg.
North Central over Illinois Wesleyan.
Saint John's over St. Olaf.
Concordia-Moorhead over Carleton.
Trinity (Texas) over Rhodes.

I like the 87% chance posted earlier of Bethel making it to the big dance this year.

[OzJohnnie]

Here you go, Art.  Guaranteed to keep the blood pressure high.  This last weekend's magic results have put BU in a very good spot.  Only one game, NCC vs. Illinois Wesleyan, can automatically destroy your weekend.  Anything else and you would have to get a run of bad luck that exceeded the good luck of last weekend.



BETHEL (MN) AT-LARGE WATCH | NOV. 13-14, 2026 | MASSEY PREDICTIONS
Chance Bethel gets an at-large bid: 87% to 90%
Bethel NPI 64.11 (11th of 11 at-large). It stays in with 10 or fewer at-large teams above it.

KEY GAMES
Win      Yes      No      Result Bethel needs (Massey's predicted score)
70      95      77      Utica over Brockport (Utica 30-23)
78      94      75      Trinity (Conn.) over Wesleyan (Trinity 28-20)
60      96      80      Williams over Amherst (Williams 24-21)
76      92      82      Johns Hopkins over F&M, Fri. (JHU 28-21)
16      97      88      Wabash over DePauw, neutral site (DePauw 34-20)
16      97      88      Coast Guard over Merchant Marine, neutral site (Merchant Marine 41-24)
78      91      84      Rowan over Montclair State, Fri. (Rowan 30-21)
99      90      2      North Central over Illinois Wesleyan (North Central 45-10)

Win = Massey's win % for the team Bethel needs.
Yes / No = Bethel's chance (%) of an at-large bid if that team wins/loses,
with every other game at Massey's odds.

87% if a Chicago upset of Lake Forest also takes the MWC title; 90% if Lake Forest keeps the bid.
Most likely finish: 10th (34%). 9th: 25%. 11th: 22%. Out: 10%.