FB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[USee]

I have no idea how much the bitter conditions will affect the midwest games, but to me (irrespective of Hansen Ratings type data), there is about a 20% chance NCC will be eliminated in the playoffs before Wheaton. I do think River Falls will win, but that's probably because I saw them play in person and have not seen Wheaton. They are big and fast, but more than that their execution was brilliant when I saw them. I'm probably the only one, but I truly think Bethel/NCC is a toss up.

That's the thing w football right? You see a team and they play well and that shapes your view. The problem w football is we have such a limited data set its hard to predict. Heck there are certain Mt Union posters who thought Grove City was better than Wheaton. To be fair, they never played so who knows. People who watched Wheaton win at Wartburg are thinking, Wow they are good. Those who watched them lost to UMU think they aren't any good. UWW  had a very impressive win v UMHB and then DePauw beat them in Janesville.....etc, etc. Wheaton beat NCC in 2019 and was a top seed. NCC made it as one of the last teams in the field as a pool C. Wheaton loses on a penalty at home at the end vs St Johns and NCC wins the Stagg with a single loss to Wheaton. Going into the playoffs, Wheaton was very much one of the favorites for the Stagg. NCC was an afterthought.

There are few things that travel well. We all know Blaha is elite as he is consistent across multiple seasons. We all know the LOS wins games. UWRF has 1 player (Blaha) who can take over a game. They a bunch of other great players as well but I don't think they have others at the level of Blaha in terms of difference makers.

NCC had Lehnen and an elite offensive line the last 4 years. Those players were a cut above even other team's great players. NCC doesn't have that on offense this year. They are great, but they don't have a Lehnen type or an OL with guys like Maples and Pryor (Cortez is close). They have an elite WR in Skokna. On Defense they have a guy who is a superior player in JP Sullivan. the kid is virtually unblockable (remember Kleppe?). They also have 2-3 other AA types on defense. I feel pretty confident that Bethel is gonna struggle with JP Sullivan. Everybody does. Bethel seems to have 2 difference makers among many great players on defense. Conant and Williams make plays against everybody (Conant was hurt last week).

I would be shocked if Bethel wins in a shootout because I don't think they can score 28+ pts on NCC. I do think they can hold NCC to a low output on offense and can win a lower scoring game. If NCC puts up 30+ it's over in my opinion. But I have been really wrong before so who knows........these games are when the next Lehnen's are born (Zac Boyes anyone?). For Wheaton I'm hoping Mark Forcucci is the next Boyes. That's the beauty of these playoffs.

I think Bethel has as good a chance as anyone in the field to beat NCC.

[emma17]

And when you think you have a good feel for what wins/loses games, you get Illinois State University upsetting #1 North Dakota State w the ISU QB throwing 5 interceptions.

I do believe football is the greatest team sport. The necessity for offense, defense, special teams and coaching to all come together for the biggest games is like no other sport. This is one of the reasons I don't put as much belief in the idea that Blaha (a player I absolutely love) can be the go to answer. A better performing team will overcome the greatness of one player. Not to bring this back to UWW, but 2007, 2013 and 2014 are examples of a better performing team overcoming a magnificent player. 2007 Mt had Micheli (and Garcon/Kmic), 2013 and 2014 Mt had Burke. I think Burke especially is comparable to Blaha. UWW as a team put Mt in situations they weren't comfortable in/couldn't perform well in.

In 12 games this season, UWRF had to come back.... 1 time. SJU scored the first TD.
What does UWRF look like if a team gets up on them? That's why complementary football is so critical at this point especially.

I'm not rooting against UWRF at all, I'm behind them all the way. I'll be most surprised if it turns out Blaha's numbers are similar to previous games (i.e. 275+ passing/near 100 yards rushing).