FB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[GoldandBlueBU]

I heard that Wayzata hired Derrin Lamker as their new head football coach.

That's a long commute to also coach Osseo.

(I mean, I know it's not, but still ...)

I see what you did there.... 

[NCC2010]

Where Team stats sat nationally going into the playoffs. Once you hit playoffs these get skewed due to teams not playing or bounced early stay high, not facing 2-3 rds of top comp.
Listed in order by Logan Hansen's Predictive Rating - National Rankings: Scoring O, Scoring D, Total O, Total D, Red Zone O, Red Zone D, Pass Eff, Pass Eff D, Rush O, Rush D, TO Margin, 1st Down O, 1st Down D, 3rd Down, 3rd Down D, 4th Down, 4th Down D

#1 UWRF (LH - 56.3): 10, 61, 1, 83, 43, 83, 58, 69, 19, 23, 43, 1, 80, 19, 40, 75, 19 - Ave: 42.8
#2 North Central (LH - 55.0): 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 6, 24, 11, 8, 25, 5, 3, 1 - Ave: 6.5
#3 Bethel (LH - 46.6): 2, 2, 7, 6, 10, 6, 35, 6, 17, 5, 8, 2, 3, 7, 4, 27, 3 - Ave: 8.8
#4 Wheaton (LH - 43.3): 12, 44, 23, 47, 54, 230, 9, 75, 98, 45, 68, 23, 68, 9, 70, 36, 126 - Ave: 61.2

Noteworthy:
- UWRF and NCC flip for the first time all season. Bethel a steady #3, Wheaton keeps rising, up from #11 for LH Ratings.
- NCC was Top 25 in every category, top 5 in 13 heading into the post-season.
- Bethel the clear number 2 statistically, and not far off NCC. UWRF numbers are skewed given the WIAC slate.
- UWRF's D was clearly their weakness, and the WIAC was not an offensively explosive league this year. However, back-half D numbers would look much better for UWRF. They will face their most balanced, explosive offense this week. No one they faced in WIAC has a passing game as good as Wheaton, or the balance IMO. UWP was probably closest (I don't think UWL QB was healthy).
- All 4 teams are playing very good football, Wheaton with the biggest improvement, but also the most room to improve.
- Each team has faced at least 1 very good defense in the post-season and both moved the ball and scored.
You've basically two groupings. UWRF and NCC are essentially 1a and 1b. There's a small gap, then Bethel and Wheaton in a grouping. Home teams are clear favorites. Logan's Spreads: NCC -12, UWRF -13. This is the tightest spread Logan's system has projected for NCC since 2021 v UMHB. Weather is a major variable. River Falls will be right around 0 with low wind and low chance of snow. Naperville high of 14 with likely light snowfall. The snow is the biggest X factor IMO. Bethel will need to be able to throw the ball effectively.

Logan's Odds of making Stagg Bowl | winning title:
NCC 70% | 46%
UWRF 65% | 34%
Bethel 16% | 7.1%
Wheaton 10% | 2.9%

Those are actually the "composite" odds for the Stagg.  Which takes into account Massey, Logan's and a few others. 

Logan's odds for the title are:

NCC 68.4% | 36.4%
UWRF 68.4% | 41.7%
Bethel 17.3% | 6%
Wheaton 9.4% | 2.9%

His model is higher on UWRF than the composite and give Bethel a better shot to beat NCC than it does.  But also, being higher on UWRF gives Bethel less of a chance to win it all.

[hazzben]

Pat made the point on the podcast that how teams perform against their season averages or stop their opponent by comparison is a solid predictor of outcomes. In other words, DePauw didn't hit their insane rushing D stats against UWW, but they still performed closer to their average than UWW did to their offensive rush stats. On the flip side, Wheaton ran for over 190 against DePauw and held them significantly below their own rushing average.
UWP rushed for 160 ypg, against Alma they put up 205, outperformed and won, but against BU they were held to 60 below their average. Bethel has averaged 234 ypg on the ground and UWP only gives up 112, but BU put up 259. Bethel is also averaging around 255 a game in the playoffs and 275 ypg over their last 4. The ground game seems to be gaining steam, right as it's about to face it's most formidable challenge by a wide margin.

NCC averages 268 ypg rushing and 227 ypg throwing, giving up 62 and 157 respectively on D. Against UWL they rushed for 229 and threw for 179. Really solid balance and performance against their average and an opponent with a solid D. UWL only rushed for 71, but threw for 347.

Bethel averages 234 rushing and 270 passing. Gives up 56 rushing and 176 passing.

Those numbers for NCC and Bethel are pretty stinking close on all counts. Who can perform closest to their normal output and limit the other?? Bethel has to be able to throw, and do better on the ground than UWL did. Then is the DLine healthy enough and able to hold them below 200 yds on the ground, something no one but Hanover, assisted by a blizzard, has done to date.