FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

Everyone has an opinion. Logan often states his opinion and then tries to persuade us its his "objective" quant model. At a minimum, it definitely provides plenty of discussion material.

Taking the team names out of it, objectively, the "Little Brass Bell" game was #1 vs #2 and this week its #2 vs #4.

[Jbothe]

I know the last time we discussed game notes and 2 deep roster for IWU it caused some back and forth.

The last couple home games the game notes had #11 Kyle Beaty listed #1 QB.

This weeks game notes have #2 Dermot Smyth listed #1 QB.

https://www.iwusports.com/documents/2026/11/4/09GameNotes26_NorthPark.pdf

He played in their last game before the bye week. 

[Jbothe]

If and when some combination of the Wheaton, North Central, UW-W, and UW-P play the defenses will make the earth shake and points will be hard to come by.  They are all outstanding on that side of the ball.

UW-RF might not be far behind. 

[CarollFan]

CCIW week 10 scores:

#1 Wheaton 52 Elmhurst 0
#5 NCC 62  Millikin 12
IWU 59  NPU 20 (This win should clinch the Isthmus Bowl. Could end up tied with Augie in conference but beat them head to head.)
Augie 37  Carthage 0

https://d3football.com/conf/CCIW/2026/standings

Top 25 games:

#4 UWW 24  #2 UWP 21
#8 WashU 45  OWU 24
#10 Cortland 42 Brockport 24
#13 BW 27  Mount Union 21 (Mount Union eliminated from the playoffs.)
#25 Calvin 38   #9 Hope 24
UWL 41   #14 UWRF 30  (UWRF eliminated from the playoffs. They are in the hunt for the Isthmus Bowl)
#15 UMHB 42  ETBU 28
#17 DePauw 41 Wooster 28
#18 Trinity (TX) 16  Centre 13

Some bubble teams playoff chances just might improve after UWRF and UMU eliminated.

[CarollFan]

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

Still some games going on out west.
UWW moves to #1.
Looks like Cortland is going to move into #2 spot. Pretty close between #1 and #2.
With UWRF dropping out, Bethel holding on to last spot.

[NCC2010]

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

Still some games going on out west.
UWW moves to #1.
Looks like Cortland is going to move into #2 spot. Pretty close between #1 and #2.
With UWRF dropping out, Bethel holding on to last spot.

Need Whitewater to hold on to #1. Logan's site hasn't updated yet but Whitewater/Cortland are projected to finish within .04 NPI of one another so could go either way. If UWW finish #2 and Wheaton #3, it's very likely UWW, UWP, Wheaton and NCC all end up on the same half of the bracket.

[CarollFan]

Who is IWU going to play in the Isthmus Bowl?

To me, now it looks like UWRF.
How I got there.

4 teams in WIAC sit at 3-3 in conference. UWRF, UWS, UWEC, UWL.
Schedule the last week.
UWP @ UWL
UWW @ UWEC
UWSP @ UWRF
UWS @ UWO.

UWRF is going to win their last game. They've beaten UWS and UWEC so they hold the tie breaker over them. UWRF lost to UWL. If UWP beats UWL and UWRF wins then UWRF goes to Isthmus.

If UWL was to upset UWP, I'm not sure how it plays out because UWL beat UWRF but if UWS wins, UWS beat UWL but lost to UWRF. So I'll assume UWL loses to UWP.

I'm assuming UWEC loses to UWW.

I'm also assuming UWRF doesn't make the playoffs. I know this week we'll see a lot of here is 20 things that need to happen for a team to get in. I'll wait for Logan to update his site with yesterday's results to see what percentage chance he is giving teams to see who actually has a chance.

[CCIWFan69]

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

Still some games going on out west.
UWW moves to #1.
Looks like Cortland is going to move into #2 spot. Pretty close between #1 and #2.
With UWRF dropping out, Bethel holding on to last spot.

Need Whitewater to hold on to #1. Logan's site hasn't updated yet but Whitewater/Cortland are projected to finish within .04 NPI of one another so could go either way. If UWW finish #2 and Wheaton #3, it's very likely UWW, UWP, Wheaton and NCC all end up on the same half of the bracket.

Do they keep the standard pairings for the Top 8?  I know they are protected from each other but can't remember it is truly 1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5.

[CCIWFan69]

Who is IWU going to play in the Isthmus Bowl?

To me, now it looks like UWRF.
How I got there.

4 teams in WIAC sit at 3-3 in conference. UWRF, UWS, UWEC, UWL.
Schedule the last week.
UWP @ UWL
UWW @ UWEC
UWSP @ UWRF
UWS @ UWO.

UWRF is going to win their last game. They've beaten UWS and UWEC so they hold the tie breaker over them. UWRF lost to UWL. If UWP beats UWL and UWRF wins then UWRF goes to Isthmus.

If UWL was to upset UWP, I'm not sure how it plays out because UWL beat UWRF but if UWS wins, UWS beat UWL but lost to UWRF. So I'll assume UWL loses to UWP.

I'm assuming UWEC loses to UWW.

I'm also assuming UWRF doesn't make the playoffs. I know this week we'll see a lot of here is 20 things that need to happen for a team to get in. I'll wait for Logan to update his site with yesterday's results to see what percentage chance he is giving teams to see who actually has a chance.

UWRF has a real shot of getting in still.  They only need to pass 2 teams. 

[CarollFan]

Who is IWU going to play in the Isthmus Bowl?

To me, now it looks like UWRF.
How I got there.

4 teams in WIAC sit at 3-3 in conference. UWRF, UWS, UWEC, UWL.
Schedule the last week.
UWP @ UWL
UWW @ UWEC
UWSP @ UWRF
UWS @ UWO.

UWRF is going to win their last game. They've beaten UWS and UWEC so they hold the tie breaker over them. UWRF lost to UWL. If UWP beats UWL and UWRF wins then UWRF goes to Isthmus.

If UWL was to upset UWP, I'm not sure how it plays out because UWL beat UWRF but if UWS wins, UWS beat UWL but lost to UWRF. So I'll assume UWL loses to UWP.

I'm assuming UWEC loses to UWW.

I'm also assuming UWRF doesn't make the playoffs. I know this week we'll see a lot of here is 20 things that need to happen for a team to get in. I'll wait for Logan to update his site with yesterday's results to see what percentage chance he is giving teams to see who actually has a chance.

UWRF has a real shot of getting in still.  They only need to pass 2 teams. 

I'll publish the % chances Logan gives for bubble teams and include IWU too.
Challenge UWRF has is they play the last place team in the WIAC and they need other teams to lose. I don't think Bethel is losing. Also teams from behind could overtake them even if they win.

[CarollFan]

https://d3football.com/top25/2026/week10

Wheaton remains #1.
UWW is #2.

[NCC2010]

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

Still some games going on out west.
UWW moves to #1.
Looks like Cortland is going to move into #2 spot. Pretty close between #1 and #2.
With UWRF dropping out, Bethel holding on to last spot.

Need Whitewater to hold on to #1. Logan's site hasn't updated yet but Whitewater/Cortland are projected to finish within .04 NPI of one another so could go either way. If UWW finish #2 and Wheaton #3, it's very likely UWW, UWP, Wheaton and NCC all end up on the same half of the bracket.

Do they keep the standard pairings for the Top 8?  I know they are protected from each other but can't remember it is truly 1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5.

They do not. I believe last year they matched 2v6 and 3v7 or something like that for travel reasons. Wartburg had River Falls in their quad when it should have been an east region team if they went by straight 1v8, 2v7 pairings.

[CarollFan]

Logan's scenario tool is updated.

https://hansenratings.com/simulation/2026/scenarios/

If IWU (7-2) beats NCC 68.3% chance to get in.
If NCC (8-1) loses 99% chance to get in.
NCC favored by 36

Amherst (7-1) if they beat Williams 100% chance to get in.
If Amherst loses they are out.
Williams favored by 0.3

Bethel (7-2) if they beat St. Scholastic 86.9% chance to get in.
Bethel favored by 59.9

Heidelberg (7-2) if they beat Wilmington 34.1% chance to get in.
Heidelberg favored by 29.6

UWRF (6-3) if they beat UWSP 11% chance to get in.
UWRF favored by 36.7

Wesleyan (7-1) if they beat Trinity (Conn.) 100% chance they get in.
If Trinity (Conn.)(8-0) loses 100% chance they get in.
If Wesleyan loses they are out
Trinity favored by 6.4

Could the NESCAC get 3 teams in?

Brockport (7-2) if they beat Utica
97.4% chance to get in.
If Utica (8-1) loses 100% chance to get in.
Utica favored by 10.2

John Carroll (7-2) if they beat Denison 35.9% chance to get in.
JCU favored by 21.9

Montclaire St (7-2) if they beat Rowan (7-2) 44.3% chance to get in.
If Rowan wins 0.2% chance to get in.
Rowan favored by 6.2

If Hope (8-1) loses to Trine (7-2) 5.4% chance to get in. If Hope wins they are in.
Hope favored by 15.7

The loser of the CUW (9-0) @ Benedictine (9-0) game gets in
Benedictine favored by 3.8

Franklin & Marshall (8-1) if they lose to Johns Hopkins 21.3% chance to get in.
F&M favored by 2.8

UMHB and HS are both making the playoffs no matter who wins.
HS favored by 3.3

Mount St. Joseph (8-1) if they lose to Marietta (6-3) 19.4% chance to get in.
Mount St. Joseph favored by 3.5

I'm not sure about the HCAC looking at Logan's odds.
For the HCAC Mount St. Joseph is 5-1 in conference. Their last game is a non conference game.

Hanover is 4-1 in conference and beat Mount St. Joseph. They have a conference game vs. Franklin. Hanover favored by 12.1
So to me it looks like Hanover could get the AQ if they win. Currently #60 NPI ranking.