FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[CarollFan]

Last week of the regular season.

We discussed Wheaton LB Zeke Harris as DPOY.
How about OPOY?

I don't think we are going to see 3 QB's on the second team All-CCIW this year with the injuries at the QB position.

[NCC2010]

Last week of the regular season.

We discussed Wheaton LB Zeke Harris as DPOY.
How about OPOY?

I don't think we are going to see 3 QB's on the second team All-CCIW this year with the injuries at the QB position.

My best guesses:

CCIW Art Keller Offensive Student-Athlete of the Year
Mark Forcucci
 
CCIW Don Larson Defensive Student-Athlete of the Year
Zeke Harris
 
CCIW Offensive Line Student-Athlete of the Year
Cortez Jones
 
CCIW First-Year Offensive Student-Athlete of the Year
Maybe Duke Guenther?
 
CCIW First-Year Defensive Student-Athlete of the Year
?
 
CCIW Bob Reade Coaching Staff of the Year
Wheaton

[Jbothe]

So I took a look at which teams indicated in my previous message are in if they win but out if they lose.

Then in Logan's tool I tried what are IWU's chances if they win and 2 NESCAC teams, Amherst and Wesleyan lose and IWU's chances jumped to 92%.

Then I tried Amherst and Hope losing and IWU's chances jumped to 100%. I think Hope losing really helps because Hope is playing Trine and IWU beat Trine.

Wesleyan and Hope losing gives IWU a 100% chance too.

Then I just tried what if just Hope loses and IWU has a 100% chance to get in.

This is based on IWU beating NCC.

I wonder what IWU chances would look like without the Millikin loss.  Would an 8-2 IWU team with a win at Millikin and loss to North Central have a chance?

[NCC2010]

Observations from NCC's game against Millikin...

This was probably the best the run game has looked all season. Starting center Jorge Ortiz was benched after an early holding penalty in the second quarter, and sophomore Bennett Gorgal came in and played the rest of the way with the starters. Ortiz then returned to action with the 2nd team offense, which leaves me wondering if that is a permanent change they will keep moving forward. The broadcast team mentioned that Coach Spencer brought up Gorgal's name during their pregame meeting before the Carthage game. Gorgal is now the fourth different center to snap with the 1st team offense this year.  Another difference with the offense this week was that normal starting tight ends Will Diamond and Dawson Trebolo were both in uniform, but neither played a snap. Instead, Parker Spellacy, a senior transfer from Cornell, and Rowan Kallall, a freshman, handled all of the tight end snaps with both the starters and the 2nd team. I'm not sure if Trebolo and Diamond were banged up or what the situation is. Either way, I thought the offensive line looked the best it has all year blocking once Gorgal came in alongside these two tight ends.

On the defensive side of the ball, I was very impressed by Millikin's quarterback, Sylas Gomez, and wide receiver, Amir Nixon. Millikin became the first offense to score 2 TDs in the first half against NCC this year, and only the 3rd offense to score twice against the starting defense all season (Wartburg scored their 2nd offensive touchdown with 12 seconds left, and Bethel scored theirs with one minute left in the third quarter while trailing 34-7). Almost all of Nixon's catches came on vertical, 1-on-1 routes, and he even dropped another 50 yard TD that would have made his stat line look even better. That has proven to be the best way to attack the NCC defense this year.  Throwing deep outside when their corners are left on an island. Wheaton was able to hit 3 of those in their final 3 drives.

On special teams, Sean Ryniec had his first missed FG attempt of the season, missing wide left from 45 yards out, though he did convert kicks from 39 and 46 yards as well. Kaleb Stumpenhorst punted in place of Chip Dose, who still played as the holder, so it isn't clear if an injury is what prevented Dose from punting. Freshman Alex Anderson, who has been a standout running back on the JV squad, was inserted as the kick returner and looked explosive, averaging 30 yards on his three returns.


Does anyone know what injury Mark Forcucci has? I noticed he did not play against Elmhurst. Hopefully, it's nothing substantial, and they were just giving him a rest week before the playoffs begin.


Looking ahead to the Illinois Wesleyan game this week, I watched a portion of their matchup against North Park and noticed they are now rotating Smyth and Beaty at QB. Smyth is essentially operating as a Wildcat QB, running the ball 12 times while attempting only one pass. It should be very interesting to see how they both perform against the NCC defense. Smyth was very elusive last year, and Beaty practiced against this defense all of last season and through the spring as a member of the Cardinals.

[CarollFan]

So I took a look at which teams indicated in my previous message are in if they win but out if they lose.

Then in Logan's tool I tried what are IWU's chances if they win and 2 NESCAC teams, Amherst and Wesleyan lose and IWU's chances jumped to 92%.

Then I tried Amherst and Hope losing and IWU's chances jumped to 100%. I think Hope losing really helps because Hope is playing Trine and IWU beat Trine.

Wesleyan and Hope losing gives IWU a 100% chance too.

Then I just tried what if just Hope loses and IWU has a 100% chance to get in.

This is based on IWU beating NCC.

I wonder what IWU chances would look like without the Millikin loss.  Would an 8-2 IWU team with a win at Millikin and loss to North Central have a chance?

I did some math and figured out the scenario beating Millikin and losing to NCC would get IWU about .85 less NPI points using current NPI's. NCC's NPI would end up a little lower with a loss so that difference may be a little smaller but your chances are definitely lower beating Millikin then beating NCC.

Beating NCC on the road would get IWU huge points, around 90 points.
One minor challenge, beating NCC on the road.

[CarollFan]

Players of the Week

Offense - Augie QB Jimmy Makuh (2nd time)
Defense - NCC S Kyler Green
Special Teams - NCC K Sean Ryniec (3rd time)