FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[NCC2010]

We'll just have to agree to disagree. It was a curl route not an in pattern. If the receiver kept moving in he would be running right to where Ballard is sitting in the zone. The throw should've gone to the receivers  outside shoulder much like the David Ballard TD against Bethel.

https://x.com/d3football/status/2096269839895552473?s=46&t=2LpDHlmLWW7A7c0oIFbv5Q

I do agree it was great coverage and play on the ball by Harvan.

It's a bummer these are the only views we get of the game since NCC takes down their streams.

This is the exact same play as happened when Wheaton safety Eli Reaves was ejected for targeting. Wilson threw it the exact same way to a wide open Rummel who had stopped and clearly Wilson thought he was going to continue. Rummel dove for the ball and Reaves dove to try and deflect it and the collision resulted in the targeting flag (which looked questionable at best). This was also completed 2 other times in the first half with no issues. So either there is a communication issue between QB/WR (man coverage--keep moving vs zone-sit) or the QB who throws 65% completion rate is erratic on his throws 50% of the time. I don't know but I do know that throws that look erratic are quite often because of different expectations/reactions.

I'll move on after this post. Both things can be true, it was a badly thrown ball (the decision to even throw it was worse, Ballard was open) and it was a good play by Harvan.

The whole reason I even posted about the play a few days ago was because Wilson tends to predetermine his throws on occasion instead of reading the defense. It's what happened on the pick 6 again Wartburg.

And the targeting call was horrible and I don't know how Reeves was ejected after review. Made no sense to me. Officials missed calls on both sides which is par for the course but really sucks when a player gets ejected on a bad call.

[robertgoulet]

We'll just have to agree to disagree. It was a curl route not an in pattern. If the receiver kept moving in he would be running right to where Ballard is sitting in the zone. The throw should've gone to the receivers  outside shoulder much like the David Ballard TD against Bethel.

https://x.com/d3football/status/2096269839895552473?s=46&t=2LpDHlmLWW7A7c0oIFbv5Q

I do agree it was great coverage and play on the ball by Harvan.

It's a bummer these are the only views we get of the game since NCC takes down their streams.

As the ball was in the air and the camera panned Ballard was so open. Made the pick so frustrating bc it isn't like Ballard was on a completely opposite side of the field so missing him was hard to believe.

[CarollFan]

We'll just have to agree to disagree. It was a curl route not an in pattern. If the receiver kept moving in he would be running right to where Ballard is sitting in the zone. The throw should've gone to the receivers  outside shoulder much like the David Ballard TD against Bethel.

https://x.com/d3football/status/2096269839895552473?s=46&t=2LpDHlmLWW7A7c0oIFbv5Q

I do agree it was great coverage and play on the ball by Harvan.

It's a bummer these are the only views we get of the game since NCC takes down their streams.

As the ball was in the air and the camera panned Ballard was so open. Made the pick so frustrating bc it isn't like Ballard was on a completely opposite side of the field so missing him was hard to believe.

It didn't look like pressure from the rush was an issue. I think NCC2010 nailed it with Wilson's read. Thanks for the analysis guys. Helped to go back and look at it and see overall what was happening.

[CarollFan]

I was checking Logan's scenario tool and projections for IWU and NCC if either goes 8-2. He has IWU with a 4.4% chance and NCC with a 52% chance making the playoffs at 8-2.

The main difference between the teams from a NPI calculation standpoint is the non- conference wins. NCC beating 2 teams who will probably end up 8-2.
The Albion team IWU beat might not win a game. Even if they win one or two that game will not be used in IWU's NPI calculation. You have to use at least 5 of your wins when calculating NPI so IWU will use 4 conference wins and NCC most likely 3 conference wins. If you end up in 3rd, your conference wins are coming from 4rth place and lower.

[CCIWFan69]

I was checking Logan's scenario tool and projections for IWU and NCC if either goes 8-2. He has IWU with a 4.4% chance and NCC with a 52% chance making the playoffs at 8-2.

The main difference between the teams from a NPI calculation standpoint is the non- conference wins. NCC beating 2 teams who will probably end up 8-2.
The Albion team IWU beat might not win a game. Even if they win one or two that game will not be used in IWU's NPI calculation. You have to use at least 5 of your wins when calculating NPI so IWU will use 4 conference wins and NCC most likely 3 conference wins. If you end up in 3rd, your conference wins are coming from 4rth place and lower.

What are IWU's chances if they are 9-1?  I'm guessing good but haven't looked.  8-2 NCC at 52% is higher than I thought.  Very outside chance that the CCIW can get 3 teams in???

[NCC2010]

IWU's odds are 100% if they end 9-1.

Hansen's model has the IWU/NCC game as a projected score of 35.3 to 6.6 as of now.

[CarollFan]

I was checking Logan's scenario tool and projections for IWU and NCC if either goes 8-2. He has IWU with a 4.4% chance and NCC with a 52% chance making the playoffs at 8-2.

The main difference between the teams from a NPI calculation standpoint is the non- conference wins. NCC beating 2 teams who will probably end up 8-2.
The Albion team IWU beat might not win a game. Even if they win one or two that game will not be used in IWU's NPI calculation. You have to use at least 5 of your wins when calculating NPI so IWU will use 4 conference wins and NCC most likely 3 conference wins. If you end up in 3rd, your conference wins are coming from 4rth place and lower.

What are IWU's chances if they are 9-1?  I'm guessing good but haven't looked.  8-2 NCC at 52% is higher than I thought.  Very outside chance that the CCIW can get 3 teams in???

Yes NCC at 8-2 would need help but according to Logan right now a coin flip.
One thing to look for either way for NCC's NPI is who ends in 4rth. Road wins can give you higher NPI because they get boosted by 10% where home wins get reduced 10%.
NCC plays Carroll on the road, Millikin on the road and beat Augie at home.

[CCIWFan69]

IWU's odds are 100% if they end 9-1.

Hansen's model has the IWU/NCC game as a projected score of 35.3 to 6.6 as of now.

I can't believe he has IWU winning by that much!  Just kidding. 

If NCC can figure out it's offensive line / running game, they'll easily score 35.  If not, it will be much much closer.

[Jbothe]

Maybe he graduates. He could also save 1-2 classes and complete his degree in December.

I have no idea what the financial situation looks like in the Smyth household, but IWU and likely most CCIW schools tuition make this a pretty unfeasible option.  It would be one thing if IWU offered grad school classes, but to pay for additional semesters of undergrad for no reason other than to extend your football career at CCIW tuition rates isn't the most sound financial decision.  I'm too lazy to look up WIAC tuition rates, but I suspect it's an apples to watermelons comparison.

Smith is graduating at semester I believe and has an Accounting job lined up for the future.  He was on the Q-cast about a month ago talking about it.