FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

Wheaton had a sluggish game against Augie. Game was tied 6-6 at half and 13-13 at the end of 3 before the Thunder scored a couple more times. Thunder defense continues to control games a majority of the time while the offense is inconsistent at best. When Forcucci is good, they are tough. When he's not, they struggle to convert 3rd downs and redzone chances. Wheaton's defense will keep them in most games in the playoffs. Their ability to go deep will very much hinge on the play of Forcucci and the offense.

Jimmy Makuh make Augie a very dangerous team. He is one of the better QB's in the division. Big arm, decisive, knows where to go with the ball. Wheaton never got to him but did give him some problems late. Angie's lack of a run game is a limiting factor for Makuh. If he was healthy all year they would have had some different outcomes.

[USee]

Updated NPI's.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

Both Wheaton and NCC NPI's increased, NCC's increased a little over 3 points.
Wheaton still #2.
NCC #19, at-large bid #6. Expect NCC's NPI to end up higher.

Wheaton's NPI should only change as a product of their opponents movement since both of their remaining games are against teams with NPI's that can't help them. Whether Wheaton finishes in the top 2 depends on the schedule and results of the teams in the top 4-5 I would guess?

[CarollFan]

Updated NPI's.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

Both Wheaton and NCC NPI's increased, NCC's increased a little over 3 points.
Wheaton still #2.
NCC #19, at-large bid #6. Expect NCC's NPI to end up higher.

Wheaton's NPI should only change as a product of their opponents movement since both of their remaining games are against teams with NPI's that can't help them. Whether Wheaton finishes in the top 2 depends on the schedule and results of the teams in the top 4-5 I would guess?

Yes, NCAA hasn't released their update yet but Datacast guys do their own calculations which usually mirror the NCAA. Here's what they calculated after this past week.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

Keep an eye on Cortland, if they go undefeated they have a chance to move up.
UWW beating UWP on the road would be huge for their NPI.
Also Wheaton fans should cheer for Mount Union this week to beat undefeated BW unless you don't want to see them again.😀

[Gotberg]

I watched the second half of the NPU game yesterday.

There was a ton of foul language caught on the broadcast audio.

Was that from Carroll's coaches or supporters?

[CarollFan]

For Wheaton the Carthage win on the road in the last game will be used in Wheaton's NPI calculation, even if Carthage loses the last 2 games against Augie and Wheaton to end up 3-7. I'll explain why because I know on the surface its not clear why that would be?

These are the wins currently used in Wheaton's calculation, and the game NPI calculated. I have it sorted highest game NPI to lowest.

NCC(away) = 93.204
IWU(away) = 86.385
Augie(away) = 78.744
Mount Union(home) = 71.644
Carroll(home) = 56.337

You add these up, divide by 5 to get final NPI 77.263.

Carthage current NPI is 45.282.
With a road lose to Augie and home loss to Wheaton, I don't think it will move much lower. I'll estimate 44.

So a win on the road to Carthage the math would be: 40 + .6(44) = 66.4.
Now multiply by away factor, 66.4 x 1.1 = 73.04 points

So the Carthage road win can replace the Carroll home win in the NPI calculation above.

NCC and IWU play in the last week so one of their NPI's is going to take a loss and that game NPI will move lower while the winner's NPI should improve.

Any loss Augie or Mount Union take would lower those game NPI's too. So you want these teams winning their remaining games.