FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[hazzben]

I would think UWRF QB is front runner for the Gagliardi trophy.
He not only is throwing the ball all over the place, he has over 1,000 yards rushing this season. He had 26 rushing attempts against St. John's.

Honestly UWRF's biggest liability is how dependent they are on Blaha, the workload toll, and if he can stay fully healthy the next two weeks. The break before the Stagg would seem to ensure he's healthy if that's in play, barring a truly bad injury. But he's gotten nicked up before over the past 4 years, and they aren't the same when he's hobbled or not a run threat. And he's not built like Cam Newton.

[USee]

I would think UWRF QB is front runner for the Gagliardi trophy.
He not only is throwing the ball all over the place, he has over 1,000 yards rushing this season. He had 26 rushing attempts against St. John's.

If you want to vote for the Gagliardi:

https://www.d3football.com/notables/2025/12/gagliardi-voting

I would point out that the Gagliardi award does have a service component so it's not just performance based. I have no idea which candidate has done what off the field, just pointing out it's not the Heisman equivalent.

[liluziberg]

I would think UWRF QB is front runner for the Gagliardi trophy.
He not only is throwing the ball all over the place, he has over 1,000 yards rushing this season. He had 26 rushing attempts against St. John's.

If you want to vote for the Gagliardi:

https://www.d3football.com/notables/2025/12/gagliardi-voting

I would point out that the Gagliardi award does have a service component so it's not just performance based. I have no idea which candidate has done what off the field, just pointing out it's not the Heisman equivalent.

Speaking of off the field service, I'll make my inaugural d3boards post to share that I saw Albert Rundell serving on the parking team at church this weekend. Worth mentioning several other BU football players serve on the parking team as well. Standing outside in the frigid weather welcoming traffic with smiles on their faces was a great reminder of the "happy-hearted tough suckers" that make up the Royals football team.
I was in college the last time Bethel played North Central, making the road trip down to Naperville to support. That was an incredible experience and I'm glad current students have the same opportunity for a fun playoff road trip!

[NCC2010]

We need to see what the post-blaha era brings. But I said to my brother yesterday, UWRF feels a little like 2003 SJU. A very good team, with a transcendent player, and a feeling of almost inevitability. That Mount team was also regarded like this NCC team. Supposedly the best ever and unbeatable.
 

We need to see what the post-blaha era brings. But I said to my brother yesterday, UWRF feels a little like 2003 SJU. A very good team, with a transcendent player, and a feeling of almost inevitability. That Mount team was also regarded like this NCC team. Supposedly the best ever and unbeatable.
 

Not sure who is saying NCC is the best ever and unbeatable...certainly not coming from NCC fans. Most of us realize that the team took a pretty sizable step back after last season, especially on offense.

I wasn't clear, I was meaning to say "best ever Mount team." That said ...

Logan's metric's earlier this year had NCC as the 5th highest since 1997, but all 4 above them achieved their peak in the post-season. Higher than peak 2022 NCC in Rd 4 and peak 2024 NCC in week 7. Even more interesting now that I'm looking back at the list, they are just ahead of 2003 Mount Union Rd 4.

Logan's regular season only list has 2025 NCC with the highest ever regular season rating.

Bringing this post over to the CCIW board, it is interesting to note that now NCC isn't even the highest team rated left in the field.  UWRF has surpassed them this week.

https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1997407900008931713?s=20

Thanks NCC2010...My point above was simply that there's a feeling of inevitability to the NCC vs UWRF stagg (though I hope to be proved wrong Saturday). We didn't have logan's metrics in 2003, and while SJU didn't lose that year like UWRF has this year, they had a few close calls. But Blaha gives me serious Blake Elliot vibes. It remains to be seen if the rest of the team around him is as good as SJU's 03 supporting cast. And 2025 NCC may yet prove immortal, where 03 Mount got shocked.

I could be dead wrong, but I feel like we have the semifinal pairings a week early. NCC, UWRF, Wheaton, and Bethel are all playing really well right now on both sides of the ball. The biggest threats to an All Midwest Red Stagg Bowl IMO are Wheaton and Bethel. JHU and Sus are both really good teams with some awesome weapons, but I just can't see them as compete enough teams to win 3 more games. JCU v Berry feels similar. JCU is playing incredible D, has a very good QB and WR combo, and they just knocked off Mount. They might be the sleeper. But it's one thing to beat Mount, an opponent they are very familiar with. It's another to win on the road in the Semi's with a totally unfamiliar, physical, and balanced foe. Their posters assume NCC in the semi's is a fait accompli, but Bethel would fit that bill as well. I'll save my deep dive into these games for later in the week, both home teams are clear favorites. But they have two real hurdles to clear first.

Yep, I was just pointing out that NCC is no longer the favorite in Logan's model — something that's been pretty rare since 2021. In fact, this is the lowest spread (-10.9) for an NCC game in his model since NCC was a half-point underdog to UMHB in the 2021 Stagg Bowl.

I still need to rewatch all of Bethel's playoff games before I can say much about this week's matchup, but I did find it notable that Coach Spencer mentioned in the post-game press conference that the coaches on staff who remain from 2018 are motivated to avenge that last home loss, which came at the hands of the Royals.

[USee]

Any of those coaches have eligibility remaining?

[Gregory Sager]

Speaking of off the field service, I'll make my inaugural d3boards post to share that I saw Albert Rundell serving on the parking team at church this weekend. Worth mentioning several other BU football players serve on the parking team as well. Standing outside in the frigid weather welcoming traffic with smiles on their faces was a great reminder of the "happy-hearted tough suckers" that make up the Royals football team.

I'm not going to vote for the Gagliardi, but if I did I'd be strongly tempted to vote for anyone who was willing to stand outside in a church parking lot in Minnesota in December to direct traffic and walk little old ladies to the church door.

Does anybody in Rundell's family work for a business that uses Stearns Bank?  

[Kovo]

We need to see what the post-blaha era brings. But I said to my brother yesterday, UWRF feels a little like 2003 SJU. A very good team, with a transcendent player, and a feeling of almost inevitability. That Mount team was also regarded like this NCC team. Supposedly the best ever and unbeatable.
 

We need to see what the post-blaha era brings. But I said to my brother yesterday, UWRF feels a little like 2003 SJU. A very good team, with a transcendent player, and a feeling of almost inevitability. That Mount team was also regarded like this NCC team. Supposedly the best ever and unbeatable.
 

Not sure who is saying NCC is the best ever and unbeatable...certainly not coming from NCC fans. Most of us realize that the team took a pretty sizable step back after last season, especially on offense.

I wasn't clear, I was meaning to say "best ever Mount team." That said ...

Logan's metric's earlier this year had NCC as the 5th highest since 1997, but all 4 above them achieved their peak in the post-season. Higher than peak 2022 NCC in Rd 4 and peak 2024 NCC in week 7. Even more interesting now that I'm looking back at the list, they are just ahead of 2003 Mount Union Rd 4.

Logan's regular season only list has 2025 NCC with the highest ever regular season rating.

Bringing this post over to the CCIW board, it is interesting to note that now NCC isn't even the highest team rated left in the field.  UWRF has surpassed them this week.

https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1997407900008931713?s=20

Thanks NCC2010...My point above was simply that there's a feeling of inevitability to the NCC vs UWRF stagg (though I hope to be proved wrong Saturday). We didn't have logan's metrics in 2003, and while SJU didn't lose that year like UWRF has this year, they had a few close calls. But Blaha gives me serious Blake Elliot vibes. It remains to be seen if the rest of the team around him is as good as SJU's 03 supporting cast. And 2025 NCC may yet prove immortal, where 03 Mount got shocked.

I could be dead wrong, but I feel like we have the semifinal pairings a week early. NCC, UWRF, Wheaton, and Bethel are all playing really well right now on both sides of the ball. The biggest threats to an All Midwest Red Stagg Bowl IMO are Wheaton and Bethel. JHU and Sus are both really good teams with some awesome weapons, but I just can't see them as compete enough teams to win 3 more games. JCU v Berry feels similar. JCU is playing incredible D, has a very good QB and WR combo, and they just knocked off Mount. They might be the sleeper. But it's one thing to beat Mount, an opponent they are very familiar with. It's another to win on the road in the Semi's with a totally unfamiliar, physical, and balanced foe. Their posters assume NCC in the semi's is a fait accompli, but Bethel would fit that bill as well. I'll save my deep dive into these games for later in the week, both home teams are clear favorites. But they have two real hurdles to clear first.

Yep, I was just pointing out that NCC is no longer the favorite in Logan's model — something that's been pretty rare since 2021. In fact, this is the lowest spread (-10.9) for an NCC game in his model since NCC was a half-point underdog to UMHB in the 2021 Stagg Bowl.

I still need to rewatch all of Bethel's playoff games before I can say much about this week's matchup, but I did find it notable that Coach Spencer mentioned in the post-game press conference that the coaches on staff who remain from 2018 are motivated to avenge that last home loss, which came at the hands of the Royals.

Let's not forget that the NCC's last loss at BW is to Bethel in 2018 (correct me if I am wrong).  I thought that is what Coach Spencer was referring to-----that, and being dismissed from the tournament in the 2nd round!

[hazzben]

Looks like snow in the forecast. I'd say that's advantage NCC. Bethel will need to be able to throw the ball. It depends how heavy the snow is I guess.

[CHUBBS PETERSON]

Let's not forget that the NCC's last loss at BW is to Bethel in 2018 (correct me if I am wrong).  I thought that is what Coach Spencer was referring to-----that, and being dismissed from the tournament in the 2nd round!

Correct, the two played in Naperville in 2018 in a game that could've gone either way. To be honest, I'd forgotten about that one and only remembered 2013 when NCC came to Arden Hills and decisively thumped a VERY good BU team on a bitterly cold afternoon.

It will take BU's best performance to get a result, but what a fun occasion and opportunity!

[USee]

Similar to NCC, Bethel is still close to 60% run so I don't think the weather will be a factor. This is going to be the toughest matchup for NCC by far. It goes without saying the same is true for Bethel. For NCC I have posted several times their biggest challenge will come when they face a team that is as physical as they are up front. Bethel is the first team with that profile the Cardinals will face. Bethel clearly wants to run the ball and stop the run, which is a recipe for success in football and certainly in the playoffs in D3. While both teams have talent across the perimeter on both sides, the identity of these squads is on the LOS and that's where this game will be won/or lost.

NCC has a generational talent in JP Sullivan on the DL and the guys around him are also very talented with at least 2 or 3 AA players. Bethel will struggle with this group but if they can limit the damage, they have Rundel and Drews that can create big plays. I am more interested in NCC's offense and the matchup with the Bethel defensive front. Bethel is tough, physical and talented. I'll be interested to see if they can challenge the NCC run game (which hasn't been done in 5 years) and if they can, I think they can win.

After Bethel, I don't see another team left that has the talent up front on both sides to challenge NCC.

[hazzben]

Where Team stats sat nationally going into the playoffs. Once you hit playoffs these get skewed due to teams not playing or bounced early stay high, not facing 2-3 rds of top comp.
Listed in order by Logan Hansen's Predictive Rating - National Rankings: Scoring O, Scoring D, Total O, Total D, Red Zone O, Red Zone D, Pass Eff, Pass Eff D, Rush O, Rush D, TO Margin, 1st Down O, 1st Down D, 3rd Down, 3rd Down D, 4th Down, 4th Down D

#1 UWRF (LH - 56.3): 10, 61, 1, 83, 43, 83, 58, 69, 19, 23, 43, 1, 80, 19, 40, 75, 19 - Ave: 42.8
#2 North Central (LH - 55.0): 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 6, 24, 11, 8, 25, 5, 3, 1 - Ave: 6.5
#3 Bethel (LH - 46.6): 2, 2, 7, 6, 10, 6, 35, 6, 17, 5, 8, 2, 3, 7, 4, 27, 3 - Ave: 8.8
#4 Wheaton (LH - 43.3): 12, 44, 23, 47, 54, 230, 9, 75, 98, 45, 68, 23, 68, 9, 70, 36, 126 - Ave: 61.2

Noteworthy:
- UWRF and NCC flip for the first time all season. Bethel a steady #3, Wheaton keeps rising, up from #11 for LH Ratings.
- NCC was Top 25 in every category, top 5 in 13 heading into the post-season.
- Bethel the clear number 2 statistically, and not far off NCC. UWRF numbers are skewed given the WIAC slate.
- UWRF's D was clearly their weakness, and the WIAC was not an offensively explosive league this year. However, back-half D numbers would look much better for UWRF. They will face their most balanced, explosive offense this week. No one they faced in WIAC has a passing game as good as Wheaton, or the balance IMO. UWP was probably closest (I don't think UWL QB was healthy).
- All 4 teams are playing very good football, Wheaton with the biggest improvement, but also the most room to improve.
- Each team has faced at least 1 very good defense in the post-season and both moved the ball and scored.
You've basically two groupings. UWRF and NCC are essentially 1a and 1b. There's a small gap, then Bethel and Wheaton in a grouping. Home teams are clear favorites. Logan's Spreads: NCC -12, UWRF -13. This is the tightest spread Logan's system has projected for NCC since 2021 v UMHB. Weather is a major variable. River Falls will be right around 0 with low wind and low chance of snow. Naperville high of 14 with likely light snowfall. The snow is the biggest X factor IMO. Bethel will need to be able to throw the ball effectively.

Logan's Odds of making Stagg Bowl | winning title:
NCC 70% | 46%
UWRF 65% | 34%
Bethel 16% | 7.1%
Wheaton 10% | 2.9%