FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

Wheaton had a sluggish game against Augie. Game was tied 6-6 at half and 13-13 at the end of 3 before the Thunder scored a couple more times. Thunder defense continues to control games a majority of the time while the offense is inconsistent at best. When Forcucci is good, they are tough. When he's not, they struggle to convert 3rd downs and redzone chances. Wheaton's defense will keep them in most games in the playoffs. Their ability to go deep will very much hinge on the play of Forcucci and the offense.

Jimmy Makuh make Augie a very dangerous team. He is one of the better QB's in the division. Big arm, decisive, knows where to go with the ball. Wheaton never got to him but did give him some problems late. Angie's lack of a run game is a limiting factor for Makuh. If he was healthy all year they would have had some different outcomes.

[USee]

Updated NPI's.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

Both Wheaton and NCC NPI's increased, NCC's increased a little over 3 points.
Wheaton still #2.
NCC #19, at-large bid #6. Expect NCC's NPI to end up higher.

Wheaton's NPI should only change as a product of their opponents movement since both of their remaining games are against teams with NPI's that can't help them. Whether Wheaton finishes in the top 2 depends on the schedule and results of the teams in the top 4-5 I would guess?

[CarollFan]

Updated NPI's.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

Both Wheaton and NCC NPI's increased, NCC's increased a little over 3 points.
Wheaton still #2.
NCC #19, at-large bid #6. Expect NCC's NPI to end up higher.

Wheaton's NPI should only change as a product of their opponents movement since both of their remaining games are against teams with NPI's that can't help them. Whether Wheaton finishes in the top 2 depends on the schedule and results of the teams in the top 4-5 I would guess?

Yes, NCAA hasn't released their update yet but Datacast guys do their own calculations which usually mirror the NCAA. Here's what they calculated after this past week.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

Keep an eye on Cortland, if they go undefeated they have a chance to move up.
UWW beating UWP on the road would be huge for their NPI.
Also Wheaton fans should cheer for Mount Union this week to beat undefeated BW unless you don't want to see them again.😀

[Gotberg]

I watched the second half of the NPU game yesterday.

There was a ton of foul language caught on the broadcast audio.

Was that from Carroll's coaches or supporters?

[NCC2010]

Updated NPI's.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

Both Wheaton and NCC NPI's increased, NCC's increased a little over 3 points.
Wheaton still #2.
NCC #19, at-large bid #6. Expect NCC's NPI to end up higher.

Wheaton's NPI should only change as a product of their opponents movement since both of their remaining games are against teams with NPI's that can't help them. Whether Wheaton finishes in the top 2 depends on the schedule and results of the teams in the top 4-5 I would guess?

Logan Hansen's site has Wheaton projected to finish #3 if both Platteville and Cortland go 10-0. Still could end up #3 if Whitewater finishes 10-0 but it will be very close between Wheaton and Whitewater then. Mount Union finishing 8-2 or 7-3 is a 0.8 difference in NPI for Wheaton as well.  Seems like #3 is their floor.

NCC is projected to finish in the 11-16 range.

[CarollFan]

Yes that makes sense.

Games used in Wheaton NPI calculation.

NCC(away) = 93.204.
IWU(away) = 86.385. 
Augie(away) = 78.744
Mount Union(home) = 71.644
Carroll(home) = 56.337

Total 386.314/5 = 77.263

The 5 wins you divide by is not number of wins. It's adjusted wins calculated by the sum of the factors used in each win.
In this case 3 away wins 1.1 each and 2 home wins usually .9 each. In this case they only used .8 of the Carroll win because that gets them to 5.0 adjusted wins and using anymore of the Carroll win doesn't help the overall NPI.

The algorithm figures out which combinations of wins and factors  gets you the highest NPI.

NCC and IWU play in the last week so one of their NPI's is going to take a loss and that game NPI will move lower while the winner's NPI should improve.

Any loss Augie or Mount Union take would lower those game NPI's too. So you want these teams winning their remaining games.

[Gregory Sager]

I watched the second half of the NPU game yesterday.

There was a ton of foul language caught on the broadcast audio.

Was that from Carroll's coaches or supporters?

It was from the Carroll staffer who was running the game-film camera for the Pioneers on the roof of the press box. We have our crowd mic up there, and he didn't care that his potty mouth was being caught by that open mic. At first I thought that it was a Pios fan down by the railing, since that's where we used to place our field mic.

Twice I turned off my own mic and leaned out the window to tell him to cut it out, but he ignored me. (I think that the surprised Carroll fans just below the press box thought that I was yelling at them.) Finally,  Tyler Woolbright, who is the game manager at Holmgren as well as the person in charge of the press box, climbed the ladder and addressed the miscreant. Didn't hear a peep out of Mr. F-bomb for the rest of the game, even when Carroll scored.

Man, I'd love to have the ability to scare people like that into silence!

[CarollFan]

Logan's week 10 predictions.

https://hansenratings.com/projections/2026/week-10/

Elmhurst +57.9 @ #1 Wheaton
#5 NCC -51.1 @  Millikin
NPU +17.2 @ IWU
Carthage +23 @ Augie

Carroll with a bye

Logan predictions 39-7 (84.7%) straight up in CCIW games.

Games that can determine conference champ:

#4 UWW +4.9 @ #2 UWP (Both undefeated. Battle for  WIAC)

#10 Cortland -7.1 @ Brockport (If Cortland wins they get AQ in E8)

#13 BW +2.6 @ Mount Union (Battle for OAC. If Mount Union loses they will miss the playoffs. If they win they get the AQ & BW gets at-large bid at 9-1)

#9 Hope -8.1 @ #25 Calvin (Both undefeated. Battle for MIAA. Both should make the playoffs at 9-1)

Trinity (Conn.) -8.3 @ Amherst (Both undefeated. Battle for NESCAC)

Rose-Hulman +17.8 @ Mount St. Joseph (Battle for HCAC)

RPI +10.8 @ Ithaca (Both undefeated in conference. Battle for LL)