FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[NCC2010]

Great post USee - I fully agree.

I'd also add Donovan McNeal to this list; his health is currently my biggest concern for NCC's playoff run. From what I'm hearing, we will not see him play this Saturday. Assuming they get past Hanover, we'll have to wait and see if he's able to return the following week against the Hope/UWL winner.

I'd also add Susquehanna RB Rahshan La Mons and Christopher Newport QB Connor Berry from the East quadrant to the list. I think the winner of that game makes it to the semifinals.

Regarding the Wheaton–Wartburg matchup, Logan's model isn't the only one that favors the Thunder. Massey has them as a 3-point favorite in Waverly. If the offensive line can hold Wartburg's front four at bay, I think they have a good chance of moving on.

[Ccrfer]

Wheaton v Wartburg is a great matchup. Wheaton has a legit offense  and an opportunistic defense. Wartburg has a legit defense and a ball control, physical offense. Its strength on strength. Wartburgs rush defense is #4 in the country and they are the real deal, giving up 43 yds a game on the ground. They shutout UW Stout, held Coe to 24 yds rushing (averaged 220 yds) and Central to 34 yds rushing (avg 180). They play mostly zone defense and don't blitz much at all. Their DL is dominant. They have 3 of 4 with double digit tackles for loss and their MLB is DPOY in the ARC. 26 sacks in 10 games almost all of which are the DL as they don't blitz. The most impressive thing about their DL is they are all good at getting off blocks. They have given up some pass yds but when you get in the redzone, that zone gets awfully tight. They are the #5 scoring defense for a reason.  they sit back in a zone and keep everything in front of them and then come up and gang tackle aggressively. They have 14 Interceptions on the season, which you would expect out of a zone team. It takes a disciplined and physical offense to drive the ball the length of the field without making a mistake (TFL, fumble, INT, sack) and Wartburg defense are great tacklers so they don't give up much Yds after contact. Wheaton has its work cut out for them.

That said, Forcucci and Co. are well suited for this. They have a stable of receivers and running backs that make them difficult to defend and he gets rid of the ball  quickly. If the Wheaton OL holds up against this DL I think the Thunder can score. This defense isn't as good as NCC but it's better than Mt Union's defense.

Wartburgs offense looks a lot like Wheaton. The difference is Wartburg is absolutely committed to the run game. They run it 60-65% of the time and they won't get away from that if they don't have to. Yet their QB gets rid of the ball quickly and completes 63% of his passes to a diverse group of WR's (sound familiar?). The QB was 2nd team all ARC and he can make all the throws. I saw him throw a 15 yd out cut from the right hash to a WR who was pretty well covered and he completed it outside the left numbers. Toughest throw in football to make. 

Hazzbeen mentioned Wheaton will have to score in the 20+ pt range to win and I think that's right. If Wheaton can put up 24-34 pts that gives them a great chance. Defensively, the Thunder have to avoid big plays and maintain gap discipline on defense. And if you can get Dodd (Wartburg QB) off his first read he has a tendency to hold the ball and you can get to him.

I can't imagine what Logan Hansen put into his flux capacitor to make Wheaton a 5.3pt favorite on the road to his alma maters stadium, but here we are. This time I hope he's right.

Usee,

keep your eye on #98 DT.  He gave Maples all he could handle as a freshman back in 2023.

[USee]

So after having to use my best deductive thinking to figure out who and what team #98 plays for and who he may have faced named Maples in 2023 I figured out you are talking about Wartburg DT Jake Walker and NCC OL Jeske Maples and the NCC v Wartburg Matchup from 2 yrs ago.

I am well aware of Jake Walker as he leads the team in sacks and TFL (along with fellow DL Conner McDonald). They were both 1st team all ARC for a reason and those two lead the way for a disruptive and dominant DL. Believe me when I say they are the two guys I'm most worried about though MLB and DPOY Keenan Tyler is in that group. When Wartburg subs in their nickel defense the two DL that stay in are those two and Keenan Tyler plays DE. To be honest, I'm hoping he doesn't catch my attention too much on Saturday.

[hazzben]

@USee hit the nail on the head. Not to oversimplify, but Wartburg is like Iowa with a competent passing attack. Super disciplined zone D, great up front, great tacklers, don't make mistakes. Force you to execute long drives and wait for their D to make a play or you to make a mistake. A team that is run heavy will struggle against Wart, similarly if you can't stop the run. Their PAP game is opportunistic, and they will pound away at 2-5 yd gains, watching for when your safeties start to creep into the box prematurely. And then they'll go for a PAP deep shot. The passing O is more than just that, but those can be where the break tight games open.

I like Wheaton in part because they're so efficient throwing the ball. You'll have good line play on both sides, and you've seen great line play against Mount and NCC. Wart's D front especially is up there. But the Thunder won't be blown away by an OL or DL drastically better than what they've seen in their biggest games this year. The fact you can spread the D out and pass so well is a key. So while it is "good on good" with Wheaton's O vs Wart's D, I think the edge goes to Wheaton. The passing attack is capable of stirring the drink for you offensively. It's what Bethel was able to do last year in Waverly with balanced O. The "best" part of Wheaton's offense is going against the "more vulnerable" part of Wart's D, relatively speaking.

[USee]

Regarding the Wheaton–Wartburg matchup, Logan's model isn't the only one that favors the Thunder. Massey has them as a 3-point favorite in Waverly. If the offensive line can hold Wartburg's front four at bay, I think they have a good chance of moving on.

Wheaton will need their "dudes" to show up in Waverly on Saturday. 2 yrs ago up at Whitewater we had a few dudes and they played out of their mind to give Wheaton a shot against UWW, whom most thought would be the main challenger to NCC that year (Wartburg had other plans). Wheaton put up 42 pts against a top 10 defense and their QB , Ben Thorson was 26-41 for 402 yds and 5 TDs. Their AA WR Bonga was covered all day by UWW's 1st team AA DB Egon Hein and he made him look silly, combining with Kortenhoeven for 14 catches, 207 yds and 3 TDs. And Gio Weeks, Wheaton's AA RB had 21 rushes for 128 yds and 1 TD. It helped that Wheaton had one of their better OL's in recent memory.

The Thunder won't be intimidated playing in Waverly, where Wartburg has only lost 2x at home in 5 seasons under Chris Winter, both in the playoffs (Bethel last year and NCC in 2023). Wheaton has played @Mt Union and @NCC this year. In those games, QB Mark Forcucci was held to 54% completions vs Mt Union and sacked 3x and 57% vs NCC and sacked 5x. He will have to play better for the Thunder to win. That's almost half the sacks for the year in those two games. Kortenhoeven caught 11 balls for 102 yds and 2 TD's vs Mt Union and 2 for 27 yds vs NCC. Peter Johanik has generally played well on defense in those big games. Vs Mt Union he led the defense with 12 tackles and added a sack and vs NCC he had 7 tackles and 1.5 TFL. All these guys will have to play at the top of their games for the Thunder and at least 1 or 2 other guys will have to become "dudes" this week to advance.

[GusD]

With as talented a roster as Wheaton has, there is no reason whatsoever for them to be intimidated in any way at Wartburg despite their almost spotless home record.
Against NCC, wasn't Forcucci just returning from injury?
Important considerations will be how much snow is on the field during the game AND how the snow, combined with the wind, will affect performances. Will the conditions limit rushing or passing attacks more and which, if either, team will suffer more as a result.

[Ccrfer]

The Illinois State High School Association just postponed 4 State Championship games scheduled to be played tomorrow at Illinois State in Bloomington.  Have any D3 playoff games ever been postponed?

[GusD]

The Illinois State High School Association just postponed 4 State Championship games scheduled to be played tomorrow at Illinois State in Bloomington.  Have any D3 playoff games ever been postponed?

As all the playoff games are at noon, all the visiting teams are likely already at the game sites today. As long as they're there, it's pretty doubtful would be postponed unless large amounts of snow couldn't be removed from the field. Cold and snow during the game isn't going to stop things. Visiting teams trips home might be a real adventure though.