FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[GusD]

Looks like snow in the forecast. I'd say that's advantage NCC. Bethel will need to be able to throw the ball. It depends how heavy the snow is I guess.

Right now the predicted high temp for Naperville on Saturday is 12 with 1-3 inches of snow.

[USee]

Wheatons offense was doo doo when we played you. Forcucci was hurt and our OL was nowhere near ready for the NCC Def front. 

Our defense is also playing much better.  Not to say it would have changed the outcome.

Bethel is much more balanced than Lacrosse. 

[USee]

Where Team stats sat nationally going into the playoffs. Once you hit playoffs these get skewed due to teams not playing or bounced early stay high, not facing 2-3 rds of top comp.
Listed in order by Logan Hansen's Predictive Rating - National Rankings: Scoring O, Scoring D, Total O, Total D, Red Zone O, Red Zone D, Pass Eff, Pass Eff D, Rush O, Rush D, TO Margin, 1st Down O, 1st Down D, 3rd Down, 3rd Down D, 4th Down, 4th Down D

#1 UWRF (LH - 56.3): 10, 61, 1, 83, 43, 83, 58, 69, 19, 23, 43, 1, 80, 19, 40, 75, 19 - Ave: 42.8
#2 North Central (LH - 55.0): 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 6, 24, 11, 8, 25, 5, 3, 1 - Ave: 6.5
#3 Bethel (LH - 46.6): 2, 2, 7, 6, 10, 6, 35, 6, 17, 5, 8, 2, 3, 7, 4, 27, 3 - Ave: 8.8
#4 Wheaton (LH - 43.3): 12, 44, 23, 47, 54, 230, 9, 75, 98, 45, 68, 23, 68, 9, 70, 36, 126 - Ave: 61.2

Noteworthy:
- UWRF and NCC flip for the first time all season. Bethel a steady #3, Wheaton keeps rising, up from #11 for LH Ratings.
- NCC was Top 25 in every category, top 5 in 13 heading into the post-season.
- Bethel the clear number 2 statistically, and not far off NCC. UWRF numbers are skewed given the WIAC slate.
- UWRF's D was clearly their weakness, and the WIAC was not an offensively explosive league this year. However, back-half D numbers would look much better for UWRF. They will face their most balanced, explosive offense this week. No one they faced in WIAC has a passing game as good as Wheaton, or the balance IMO. UWP was probably closest (I don't think UWL QB was healthy).
- All 4 teams are playing very good football, Wheaton with the biggest improvement, but also the most room to improve.
- Each team has faced at least 1 very good defense in the post-season and both moved the ball and scored.
You've basically two groupings. UWRF and NCC are essentially 1a and 1b. There's a small gap, then Bethel and Wheaton in a grouping. Home teams are clear favorites. Logan's Spreads: NCC -12, UWRF -13. This is the tightest spread Logan's system has projected for NCC since 2021 v UMHB. Weather is a major variable. River Falls will be right around 0 with low wind and low chance of snow. Naperville high of 14 with likely light snowfall. The snow is the biggest X factor IMO. Bethel will need to be able to throw the ball effectively.

Logan's Odds of making Stagg Bowl | winning title:
NCC 70% | 46%
UWRF 65% | 34%
Bethel 16% | 7.1%
Wheaton 10% | 2.9%

BTW Hazz, this is a great post. Love this data.

[CarollFan]

I think Bethel needs to keep NCC under 21 pts to have a chanced to win. It will be tough for Bethel to score much more than that IMO. Lacrosse scored on the last play of the game to get to 28.

Another LaCrosse TD was setup by a 50 yd half back pass that got them down to the 1.  They then scored on 4th and goal from the 3 on a play where Haas was dead to rights in Renick's arms, escaped and then made a good throw and an even better catch by the TE for the TD.

I need to watch more of Bethel before I comment on their offense compared to UWL/Wheaton, etc.

UWL had 418 total yds, more yards then NCC. UWL had 347 passing yds. UWL WR #19 had 100 yds receiving and 4 TD's.

I think the NCC picks by Roby #2 were huge, stopping a drive and a pick 6 late in first half.

Turnovers could be huge this Saturday too.

Here is the press conference you were discussing earlier. Sound is a little off early but clears up after a minute or so.