D3 Basketball Ranking System

[magicman]

augie,

Great work as usual. Plus k.

[kiltedbryan]

Used 3 points for the playoffs...had 2.5 all season long but it came out closer to 3 on the year so I figured to just use that.  However, I can only do that for the first two rounds.  I also don't have any effect for teams that will be flying, like Whitworth.  So, for a potential UMHB vs. Whitworth matchup, my system tells me Whitworth in basically a toss-up but my head tells me to take UMHB.

Obviously the home-court advantage has a big potential to affect the S16 and E8 games but I can't predict the host team so I can't apply the HCA for those rounds.

My bias is that a plane flight in D3 is worth about 7 points. I think that McMurry gains 4 net points due to travel.

Whitworth will be the best fundamental team that we have seen this season.

Another item that's difficult to capture, but which I'm trying to use as a subjective factor in my analysis of the early round matchups are the "near home" neutral site games.

For example, in Wooster's pod, Capital and it's fan base has a nice, short, 100 mile trip up to Wooster to face Randolph-Macon and their 440-mile, 8+ hour bus trip. I don't know how well the RMC fan base travels, but I suspect that the first game on Friday will have a near home game feel for the Crusaders, even if it is a "neutral site" by the books.

[Gregory Sager]

Used 3 points for the playoffs...had 2.5 all season long but it came out closer to 3 on the year so I figured to just use that.  However, I can only do that for the first two rounds.  I also don't have any effect for teams that will be flying, like Whitworth.  So, for a potential UMHB vs. Whitworth matchup, my system tells me Whitworth in basically a toss-up but my head tells me to take UMHB.

Obviously the home-court advantage has a big potential to affect the S16 and E8 games but I can't predict the host team so I can't apply the HCA for those rounds.

My bias is that a plane flight in D3 is worth about 7 points. I think that McMurry gains 4 net points due to travel.

Does the travel spread go up or down depending upon the quality of the in-flight movie?

[augie_superfan]

I've now added a new page to the website labeled "Tourney Odds"

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/tourney-odds

I simulated the tournament 1 million times (dont worry, only takes the computer about 7 minutes).  What resulted is a list of what percentage of times each team wins in each round.  There are examples of how to interpret the table of values on the webpage.

The percentages are taken from the two competing team's ratings as determined by my ranking system.  There are some intersting things that can be seen in the table such as which "pods" or regions are teh easiest and which are the hardest.  Also other interesting things, for example: 

My system has MIT rated slightly higher than Amherst (1 point better on a neutral court).  They have a possible matchup in the Elite Eight.  You would then think that my system would predict MIT to go to the Final Four more often, however the opposite actaully happens. It has Amherst making the Finla Four 29.1% of the time and MIT 26.3% of the time.  Why is this?  Simply because MIT has a more difficult road to even get to that game.  Amherst is predicted to be in that Elite Eight game 49.9% of the time whereas MIT is predicted to be there only 42.8% of the time.

*NOTE:  Home court advantage is only taken into account for rounds 1 and 2.  All other games are assumed to be neutral court.  I will update the values once the Sectional hosts are decided.

[CityD3]

Is this coming back this season, augie?

[magicman]

Is this coming back this season, augie?

I asked him the same question back in early November with a PM. His reply was not at this time due to family commitments. I miss his rankings and predictions which I referenced more than Massey's. Hopefully at some point in the future augie will return to give us a great source of D3 matchups.