NPI Rankings 2026

Started by Kuiper, October 05, 2026, 01:00:55 PM

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Kuiper

The first official drop of the NCAA NPI Rankings, which determine NCAA tournament selections for at large teams and seedings for all teams that qualify has dropped.

NPI Top 25 Rankings as of 10/5/2026

1. St. Lawrence (59.396)
2. Middlebury
3. Williams
4. St. Olaf
5. Chicago
6. Wash & Lee
7. Rowan
8. Lynchburg
9. Hobart
10. Conn College
11. Tufts
12. Kenyon
13. Cortland
14. Case Western
15. DePauw
16. North Park
17. Messiah
18. SUNY Oneonta
19. Catholic
20. Montclair State
21. Calvin
22. Johns Hopkins
23. Babson
24. Saint John's (MN)
25. Christopher Newport

Kuiper

NPI Top 25 as of 10/7

1. St. Lawrence (59.265)
2. Middlebury
3. Williams
4. Washington & Lee
5. Chicago
6. St. Olaf
7. Rowan
8. Conn College
9. Lynchburg
10. Tufts
11. Hobart
12. DePauw
13. Case Western
14. Calvin
15. Kenyon
16. North Park
17. Bowdoin
18. SUNY Oneonta
19. Montclair State
20. Catholic
21. Salisbury
22. Saint John's (MN)
23. Cortland
24. Messiah
25. Redlands

SimpleCoach

Quote from: Kuiper on Today at 09:26:00 AMNPI Top 25 as of 10/7

1. St. Lawrence (59.265)
2. Middlebury
3. Williams
4. Washington & Lee
5. Chicago
6. St. Olaf
7. Rowan
8. Conn College
9. Lynchburg
10. Tufts
11. Hobart
12. DePauw
13. Case Western
14. Calvin
15. Kenyon
16. North Park
17. Bowdoin
18. SUNY Oneonta
19. Montclair State
20. Catholic
21. Salisbury
22. Saint John's (MN)
23. Cortland
24. Messiah
25. Redlands

This list makes me wonder if I am just watching a different game altogether.

SC.

jknezek

Quote from: SimpleCoach on Today at 11:44:51 AMThis list makes me wonder if I am just watching a different game altogether.

SC.

You are watching games. This list is watching math

Kuiper

Quote from: jknezek on Today at 11:52:09 AM
Quote from: SimpleCoach on Today at 11:44:51 AMThis list makes me wonder if I am just watching a different game altogether.

SC.

You are watching games. This list is watching math

I wonder whether the rankings would change if the new 2027 NPI dials for men's soccer were in place.  I suspect the 20/80 change isn't significant enough to make that big a difference, but I'm not sure about the decreased QWB and how it would combine with the slightly bigger emphasis on wins.  What distinguishes the top 52 schools in the current NPI rankings from the schools that are below 52?  Those above have some QWB and those below have zero.  In fact, the NPI ranking of the top 52 exactly tracks the ranking of QWB points.  Those who simulate these things (e.g., D3 Datacast) could probably run a few numbers, but it would be interesting to see if the increased value of wins and decreased value of SoS and QWB would change that at the margins.

jknezek

There's still a lot of games to be played this year. I think the NPI has done a decent job the last couple years, though I do like the upcoming tweaks. But the fewer data points it has to work with, the weirder it will be. Most teams are 10-ish games in and still have 6-ish games to go before the conference tournaments begin. So we are only 2/3rds of the regular season finished, more or less.

But yeah, it's a bit wonky right now. Kuiper's discovery is pretty interesting. NPI = QWB right now. It's a perfect correlation until you hit 0 QWB. Tells me QWB might be way over-weighted!

jsr

I think the QWB column refers to the quality win bonus a team gets for beating that team. It's not a measure of the quality win bonus points that the team has received so far this season.

For example, SLU's listed QWB is 3.948, which is equal to their NPI (59.265) minus 54 (the quality win base) x .75 (the QWB multiplier). 59.265-54=5.265, 5.265x.75=3.948.

It does look like you need to go all the way down to Messiah, at #24 to find the highest ranked team without any QWB points. The only team they have played so far with an NPI >54 is Scranton (a loss in their first game of the season).

Kuiper

Quote from: jsr on Today at 02:49:45 PMI think the QWB column refers to the quality win bonus a team gets for beating that team. It's not a measure of the quality win bonus points that the team has received so far this season.

For example, SLU's listed QWB is 3.948, which is equal to their NPI (59.265) minus 54 (the quality win base) x .75 (the QWB multiplier). 59.265-54=5.265, 5.265x.75=3.948.

It does look like you need to go all the way down to Messiah, at #24 to find the highest ranked team without any QWB points. The only team they have played so far with an NPI >54 is Scranton (a loss in their first game of the season).

Thanks.  That would make sense, but it also seems odd that they wouldn't display the information as to how many Quality Win Bonus points a team has received.  I feel like that they did have a column for that in previous years, but I could be mistaken.  It also makes the column for QWB rank completely redundant, which is odd.

stlawus

#8
Quote from: Kuiper on Today at 04:00:26 PM
Quote from: jsr on Today at 02:49:45 PMI think the QWB column refers to the quality win bonus a team gets for beating that team. It's not a measure of the quality win bonus points that the team has received so far this season.

For example, SLU's listed QWB is 3.948, which is equal to their NPI (59.265) minus 54 (the quality win base) x .75 (the QWB multiplier). 59.265-54=5.265, 5.265x.75=3.948.

It does look like you need to go all the way down to Messiah, at #24 to find the highest ranked team without any QWB points. The only team they have played so far with an NPI >54 is Scranton (a loss in their first game of the season).

Thanks.  That would make sense, but it also seems odd that they wouldn't display the information as to how many Quality Win Bonus points a team has received.  I feel like that they did have a column for that in previous years, but I could be mistaken.  It also makes the column for QWB rank completely redundant, which is odd.

Click on a team's NPI rank number, it takes you to their resume and shows you all the NPI numbers. Shows you what the NPI value of a win and loss is for every result along with the quality win bonus received for a win against a team, if any.