Top 25 rankings

[Mr. Ypsi]

Dutch,

I haven't looked at the new poll yet, but I DO find it surprising that Carthage would be above Augie - I picked Augie in two pickems (so don't consider it an upset), AND the game was in Kenosha.

MUCH better example for your case than Iowa-Iowa St.!

[smedindy]

So basically the polls are wrong unless you agree with them?

This is why I like data and play with my power ranking olio - but even then teams that win head to head can be ranked lower, due to SOS and how well they played in those other games.

Besides, polls don't REALLY matter, anyway, so I wouldn't lose any sleep over them.

[wally_wabash]

...but when a team beats another they should not be ranked behind the losing team should they?

Look at what happened today MHB loses. Do I think that that team should now be ranked ahead of them not at all nor do I think that MHB should drop out of the polls.  

Those two statements are in direct opposition to one another.  On the one hand, you're arguing that Team A should never be ranked ahead of Team B if Team B beat Team A at some point during the season.  On the other, you're saying that there are times when Team A can lose to Team B and it's still perfectly sensible for Team A to be ranked in front of Team B.  The difference in context here is that in the first one Teams A and B are Central and Augustana and in the latter post Teams A and B are MHB and HP.  You can't have it both ways.  So which is it?

[Mr. Ypsi]

Well, now I HAVE seen the new poll - Augie was only 1 point below Carthage, so not a big deal.  However, I DO wonder that, collectively, Augie-Carthage LOST 149 points (Carthage lost 211 points, while Augie gained only 62)!  Do the voters value offense over defense (it was a 7-0 game)?

I'm also a bit mystified that Wheaton gained 18 points (and rose from 32 to 27) by beating Millikin (at home) in TRIPLE overtime, yet Millikin received not a single vote.  They sound pretty equivalent to me!

[smedindy]

Millikin is only 3-2 and there are too many deserving one loss and unbeaten teams.

And in looking at Carthage and Augie - it is plausible that Carthage would still be ahead. They had the momentum from last season, and won at Millkin and beat two other decent teams. Augie already had a loss (to a pretty darn good team, in OT) but wins over Catholic, Platteville and North Park aren't going to really excite anyone. Carthage had the more proven resume, and even with a loss some may say still are a little more of a proven commodity this season than Augie.

Because on any given Saturday....

[gordonmann]

I suspect Carthage had several voters who were ready to "jump ship" should they lose a game based on less than impressive victories before last week's W over Millikin.  McDaniel might have been in similar boat with their big loss in votes (130 last week to 1 this week).

[DutchFan2004]

I guess you have me there wally!

[Mr. Ypsi]

Smed,

I grant that there are a LOT of teams with better records than Millikin, but their only losses are to #22 Carthage and (in 3OT) at #27 Wheaton.  I wouldn't expect them to be IN the top 25 (I'd rank 'em 30-35 myself), I'm just a bit surprised that NONE of the voters had them top 25.

(OMG, a Titan is again sticking up for the 'lower than dirt' Big Blue!  )

[Ralph Turner]

Mr Ypsi, I did not interpret your last post as defending Millikin, but rather using your IWU stellar education to analyze the situation.  This time the ostensible beneficiary of your analysis was Millikin.  Facts are facts!

[Mr. Ypsi]

Ralph,

It is quite obvious why you are a Hall of Famer with VERY high karma - you're so diplomatic!

But I'm starting to get concerned.  I've now defended Millikin fb SEVERAL times on various boards (AND Wheaton! ), and was ecstatic over Millikin's national championship in women's bball.  I may never be able to set foot in Bloomington again!

What's next - will I say something nice about Ohio State or Michigan State?

I've mellowed beyond repair - somebody just shoot me!

[DutchFan2004]

Now now Mr Ypsi don't go that far.  Death is pretty permanant.  Everyone has bad days.  I'm sure that standing up for Millikin isn't as traumatic as it seems.  I thought this year that Iowa State wasn't an upset and thats pretty hard for a Hawk fan to admit or accept.  The sun will come up tommorow so my advice is stick around and watch it. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Applaud to you Dutch!

Fear not, I think the 'mellowing' is actually just 'maturing'.  Rivalries (including talking of them as though they were life and death) are fun, but they aren't REALLY much in the grand scheme of things. 

Why, I even rooted for OSU against Texas - though it was ONLY so our destruction of OSU would be more impressive!! 

Actually, I nearly always root for conference teams (even bitter rivals) against 'outsiders'.  It paid off in CCIW pickems - the last two weeks of the pre-conference season I picked a sweep for the CCIW, and was rewarded with a perfect score each week!

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

I've ranked the remaining undefeated Division III teams by their opponent's combined winning percentage.  I did not count the undefeated team's win in their opponent's record and winning percentage.

Pos.	School	Record	Opp. Win%	Opp. Record	Scoring Off.	Scoring Def.	QoWI Rank
1	#2 Mount Union	5-0	.714	15-6	48.2	8.8	2nd
2	#20 Coe	5-0	.682	15-7	29.8	13.2	5th
3	#4 Rowan	4-0	.667	10-5	33.8	16.3	t-14th
	Bowdoin	3-0	.667	4-2	16.0	14.0	t-217th
5	#7 UW-Whitewater	5-0	.647	11-6	44.8	11.6	t-7th
6	Monmouth	6-0	.621	18-11	45.8	20.7	6th
7	#12 Trinity (TX)	5-0	.600	12-8	22.4	13.4	10th
	Hobart	5-0	.600	12-8	35.4	13.6	t-3rd
9	Alma*	4-1	.591	13-9	34.2	25.8	t-7th
10	#19 Thiel	5-0	.565	13-10	38.0	15.6	9th
11	#8 Ithaca	5-0	.545	12-10	44.2	24.2	t-11th
12	#5 St. John's	6-0	.519	14-13	41.3	10.8	t-36th
13	#24 Wesley	6-0	.478	11-12	42.8	13.8	t-14th
14	#9 Delaware Valley	5-0	.476	10-11	33.2	11.8	22nd
15	Union	5-0	.455	10-12	30.4	13.8	t-23rd
16	#6 Occidental	5-0	.438	7-9	39.0	15.2	t-14th
17	St. Olaf	5-0	.429	9-12	46.4	17.8	27th
	Johns Hopkins	5-0	.429	9-12	19.2	6.8	t-14th
19	Wabash	5-0	.409	9-13	38.0	5.8	t-39th
	East Texas Baptist*	4-1	.409	9-13	18.0	23.4	t-34th
21	#1 Linfield	4-0	.357	5-9	45.8	14.8	28th
22	#10 UW-La Crosse*	3-1	.353	6-11	29.0	18.8	t-74th
23	#13 Concordia-Moorhead	5-0	.333	7-14	30.6	14.0	t-56th
	#3 Hardin-Simmons	5-0	.333	6-12	38.0	14.4	t-47th
	Trinity (CN)	3-0	.333	2-4	46.3	2.0	t-217th
26	#16 North Central	5-0	.318	7-15	40.8	18.4	t-14th
27	Ferrum	6-0	.269	7-19	43.0	22.2	t-56th
28	Elmhurst	5-0	.227	5-17	35.2	12.8	t-36th
29	Colby	3-0	.167	1-5	27.7	10.0	t-217th

*lost to a non-Division III school

[frank uible]

kid: So much work for so little valuable insight.

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

I guess we define valuable differently, because I think something can be argued from this table by looking at the bottom five opp win %s (not counting the NE schools).

1) Elmhurst ... sure they're in the CCIW, but their two conference wins were against the two bottom teams in the league with their two impressive non-conference wins (score-wise) being against two 0-6 teams.  They are also coming off a 4-6 season in 2004 and they haven't beaten Wheaton or Augustana since 1999 (22-16 win over Wheaton).

2) Ferrum ... also coming off a 4-6 season in 2004, the cause for concern is the amount of points they've given up against the poor competition they've faced.  Since they've joined in the USAC in 2001, they have yet to beat Methodist and CNU in the same season.  Also, the USAC is only 2-5 in the playoffs since the conference started four years ago.

3) #16 North Central ... defeated then ranked #18 Wheaton 35-26 already, a Wheaton team that has a 4-3 record in the playoffs over the past three years, losing only to Mount Union.  North Central is also coming off two straight 7-3 seasons.

4) #3 Hardin-Simmons ... opened up the season with a convincing win over a WIAC school.  Defeated the 2004 national runner-up MHB convincingly last season.  Plays in a conference (ASC) that has five playoff wins over the past two seasons.

5) #13 Concordia-Moorhead ... the MIAC is 5-2 over the last two seasons in the playoffs.  Defeated the 2003 national champs (SJU) last year.


So I think the above suggests why the unranked teams aren't getting national attention as of yet (Ferrum with 2 poll votes and Elmhurst with none), and why the three ranked teams are.  If Ferrum can beat Methodist and CNU this year, then throw the above out the window.  If Elmhurst beats three of the following: Augustana, North Central, Carthage and Wheaton this year ... again, the above will have been defeated.

Personally, I see Ferrum losing to one or both ... with Elmhurst losing all four.