FB: American Rivers Conference

[MediaGuy]

Thanks for the charts Logan! I do think that the trend is something to note, as the top of the conference is separating itself from the bottom of the league. I would assume that I am one of the younger people on this board, as I have only followed the conference for about 8 years now. But in those 8 years, it has felt like the haves (Central/Wartburg/Coe/ud) and the have-nots (the rest) have not done much flip-flopping. Now I think this is pretty normal for most football conferences, as we typically don't see teams going from worst to first in this particular sport. But it does beg the question, how much longer will this go on for, and what does one of the teams in the have-nots group need to do to break through? I would love someone to hear the opinions of those who are a bit more seasoned on this board on the matter, as they have probably seen and know more about the history of the league.

I would say that there are definitely some leagues where there are pretty stark differences in institutional priorities that drives a lot of the stratification (the MIAC and former makeup of the ASC immediately come to mind), but that's not really the case in the ARC. Wartburg as an institution definitely puts a premium on athletic success, but if you look at federally-reported revenue/spending numbers, the whole conference is basically on the same playing field. Some institutions have other issues (general financial health of the college, dwindling nearby population), but there's nothing on the scale of St. Scholastica vs. St. John's to overcome.

This is anecdoctal, but for me coming out of high school (class of '08), I had barely functional dial-up internet at home, and I was only going to hear about a school from in-person visits or mailers, and then everything I knew about them was essentially learned from my on campus visits. Now a kid from Arizona can meet a coach from Iowa at a recruiting fair, and then in the next fifteen minutes they'll know who the best teams are in their conference and send a DM to their coaches on Twitter. That can make it more difficult to climb the ladder, but not insurmountable.

I also look at success in other sports. There's abosultely no reason for a school like Luther to be struggling as much as they have been in football. If you exclude football from the All-Sports Trophy last year, Luther finishes first in the conference, and they're regularly finishing in the Top 3 in the All Sports Trophy even including football, and have the third-most outright All Sports Trophy wins all time, behind Wartburg and Central.

The stasis right now can feel entrenched, and I do think the availability of information for recruits can make that entrenchment more "real," but I think pretty much every school in the ARC is only 1 great coaching hire away from moving into the upper half of the conference.

This has been an interesting dynamic in the 20+ years I've been around the conference and I've seen some teams fall and almost get over the hump.  In the late 90s, Simpson was the conference power, then fell slowly down to where they are now.  As a Wartburg guy, I think Coach Hoskins will get them on the right track if the administration gives him the tools to be successful.  Luther had a good thing going for a while with the triple option coach and I thought they would be the next team to get to the next level, but he left.  Which bring me to my point.  You said a team is 1 good coaching hire away from moving up in the world, but in my time, it has taken more than a good coach to turn a program around. 
1. Coach...obviously it takes a dynamic, motivated coach who is committed to winning but also changing the culture of a program.
2. Administration support...if a coach doesn't have the bosses who are willing to change and let the coach create the culture, it might get good for a year or two, but you can't build on a poor foundation.  I think that's what we saw at Luther and Simpson.  Good young coaches who tryed to build something, but didn't get the support or "buy in" from their bosses to craft a culture of success.
3. Local recruiting...Wartburg and Central without question, built a fence around their local recruiting territory.  That's not to say they get everyone in a 50 mile radius, but they are definitely in the top 3 for every good high school player in their local area.  Coe and Dubuque have done a decent job as well, but haven't really locked the gate of their territory quite yet, but they've done a much better job than everyone else at getting local kids.  That comes from having a culture kids and parents want to be a part of.
4. Local Support...Once you have steps 1-3, it's much easier to get local support, boosters and fans to build your program.  Its much easier to have businesses and fans continuously fund and support your program when they see the kids from their hometown on your team.  It might seem like a shortcut to just recruit texas, florida or Arizona, but it's hard to get fans and businesses to support a team full of "outsiders".

Long post, but my point is that the "haves" are playing by that playback and the "have-nots" seem to be trying different recipes that haven't panned out yet in my humble opinion

[HansenRatings]

I agree with a lot of your perspective there, wrt the administrative support, recruiting, and local support, but that's a huge reason why I think Hafner holds a fair deal of blame for Luther's struggles lately. I remember them posting their recruiting class on Twitter his last season there, and they had zero recruits from Iowa. ZERO. I remember because I DM'd the Luther football account and asked when they were going to post their recruits from Iowa, and they replied saying, "At this time, we don't have any recruits in this class from Iowa."

Running a niche system and recruiting zero kids from your home state is not going to leave a place better than you found it.

I would also point out that Hafner's resume wasn't actually all that great; it just looks better in hindsight because they've struggled so much since he left.
Luther's average rating from 1997-2012: +2.9
Luther's average rating w/ Hafner 2013-2018: -0.2
Luther's average rating since 2019-2024: -22.1

[HansenRatings]

I was bored today, so I decided to do some digging. This is using my team ratings (which is actually a weighted average of 3 different models).

Percentage of Weeks since 1997 Ranked in the Top __

School	Top 1	Top 2	Top 3	Top 4	Top 5
Wartburg	52%	76%	92%	99%	100%
Central	32%	75%	91%	99%	100%
Coe	7%	24%	54%	71%	89%
Dubuque	6%	13%	32%	54%	60%
Simpson	4%	11%	22%	38%	62%
Buena Vista	0%	1%	7%	21%	31%
Luther	0%	0%	1%	10%	23%
Loras	0%	0%	0%	8%	33%
Nebraska Wesleyan	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%

Some takeaways - Wartburg & Central own the top 2 spots in the conference, with a considerable gap between them and Coe, and then another sizeable gap between Coe & UD/Simpson.

UD in the early aughts was noticeably worse than any of the current teams have been recently (yes, even Luther). They got better, but it took consistent coaching, institutional support, and a nice influx of funds to the athletic department.

If the benchmark for success is just being better than average, every team (except NWU, who has struggled mightily since making the switch from NAIA) has shown the ability to consistently rank in the top half of the conference.

[DriftlessDuhawk]

I was bored today, so I decided to do some digging. This is using my team ratings (which is actually a weighted average of 3 different models).

If you don't mind me asking, which three models do you use, and how do you weight them?

[HansenRatings]

If you don't mind me asking, which three models do you use, and how do you weight them?

About 90% is my own "adjusted efficiency" model that I've been modifying for years. It's pretty similar to what KenPom does for DI basketball, but with some additional/different bells & whistles.

Then about 5% each is a traditional Elo model and a margin-of-victory-adjusted Elo model.

If you want to waste an afternoon, I wrote about it in excruciating detail here: Hansen Ratings Model Explanation.

[doolittledog]

100 days until the 2025 season.