FB: American Rivers Conference

[HansenRatings]

Updating my conference projections now that I have returning production data:

School		SOS		Proj. W-L	Conf. W-L
Wartburg		0.547		8.6-1.4	7.3-0.7
Coe		0.491		7.7-2.3	6.5-1.5
Central		0.544		7.8-2.2	6.5-1.5
Dubuque		0.596		5.2-4.8	5.1-2.9
Loras		0.558		3.4-6.6	2.9-5.1
Simpson		0.501		3.8-6.2	2.6-5.4
Nebraska Wesleyan		0.540		2.8-7.2	2.3-5.7
Buena Vista		0.513		2.9-7.1	2.2-5.8
Luther		0.480		1.5-8.5	0.6-7.4

[BLynn]

I said this before, but I think Augustana would make a lot of sense for both parties. They're a good fit for the ARC geographically & fit the mold of the current institutions, and if Monmouth gets/accepts an invitation, that would be a good travel partner for them.

I'm not sure who else from the Twin Cities area would make sense, either for the ARC or for a school potentially looking for greener pastures.

I agree with Logan that Augustana would make the most sense as they fit the mold and geography of the conference very well. The question is are they willing to trade in drives to Chicagoland for drives to Lincoln and Storm Lake?

I have also heard that some members have thrown around the idea that they could try to lure an NAIA team to the D3 ranks. I haven't heard if any of these schools have expressed interest, however. Personally, I don't know much about most of the NAIA schools in the area, but I'm not sure why a school would go from offering scholarships to not offering scholarships. I know that Grandview/Northwestern (IA)/Morningside have been fairly dominant for a number of years, and I don't know that a move like this would benefit them all that much.

I have always thought that Iowa could produce a magnificent football conference by including the ARC (sans NWU) with Morningside, Northwestern, Grand View, St. Ambrose and possibly Clarke and/or Briar Cliff. Only problem, as mentioned, is who blinks first: ARC moves to NAIA (which most were at one time) or the others roll to NCAA D3. I guess it's just wishful thinking.

[HansenRatings]

I have always thought that Iowa could produce a magnificent football conference by including the ARC (sans NWU) with Morningside, Northwestern, Grand View, St. Ambrose and possibly Clarke and/or Briar Cliff. Only problem, as mentioned, is who blinks first: ARC moves to NAIA (which most were at one time) or the others roll to NCAA D3. I guess it's just wishful thinking.

If you took the top 3 or 4 teams from the ARC and mushed them together with the top 4 NAIA teams in Iowa (Grandview, Morningside, Northwestern, and Dordt are all Top 10 in Massey's preseason ratings), you would have either the strongest DIII conference in the country or the strongest NAIA conference in the country.

The only way I see something like that happening is if ~half of the small colleges in Iowa shutter their doors, though. I think all of those schools are pretty happy with their current situations.

[Fannosaurus Rex]

It is funny that when a local Chicago tv weather man puts up his regional map, the only two cities it names in Iowa are Waterloo and Oskaloosa.

[doolittledog]

It is funny that when a local Chicago tv weather man puts up his regional map, the only two cities it names in Iowa are Waterloo and Oskaloosa.

Time to bring William Penn back to the conference 

[blue_jays]

Yeah, Logan and I have very similar sources, as these are the two schools I was referring to. The only thing I would add is that with Luther leaving, the conference is looking to move to a "travel partner" approach for all non-football sports.

With that being said, adding both Monmouth and Northwestern doesn't really work with that idea, and so the league would rather expand in one direction by getting two schools. So, either looking for an additional school in western Illinois or another one in the Twin Cities area.

I said this before, but I think Augustana would make a lot of sense for both parties. They're a good fit for the ARC geographically & fit the mold of the current institutions, and if Monmouth gets/accepts an invitation, that would be a good travel partner for them.

I'm not sure who else from the Twin Cities area would make sense, either for the ARC or for a school potentially looking for greener pastures.

Augustana is not leaving the CCIW. Unless their president forces a move, not gonna happen.

[doolittledog]

Earlier this afternoon the conference twitter page posted something to the effect of There is a big announcement coming this week.  Can anyone guess.  That tweet quickly disappeared.  Anyone have any info? 

[The Third Division]

Possibly a rebrand. I didn't see anything.

[Fannosaurus Rex]

Why does the ARC use teasers? I hate teasers!

[doolittledog]

Possibly a rebrand. I didn't see anything.

Announcing they are going to Flo Sports?

Or something along those lines?

[HansenRatings]

Announcing they are going to Flo Sports?

Or something along those lines?

With Flo announcing 4 new conference partnerships yesterday (3 in DIII, 1 in DII), I feel like that possibility has diminished pretty significantly. I also feel like a rebrand would be a little odd, given how fresh the ARC brand is. Wasn't long ago it was still the IIAC. I asked a couple people who I thought might have some insight, and they were stumped about what the announcement could be.

[hazzben]

I know NWC's president very casually floated the idea of going D3 (given his Simpson roots) but it didn't go anywhere. That was probably 15 years ago.

NWC, Morningside, Dordt, and Grandview migrating would lead to an insanely good conference in a number of sports. NWU and BVU would benefit with the NW Iowa group of schools. You'd have natural rivalries between NWC, Dordt, and Central with the Dutch Reformed angle. And if you went to some sort of divisional format you could alleviate travel strain.

But this is discussion board dreaming ... the ARC schools aren't going NAIA. And the recent success of all those GPAC schools + Grandview in NAIA makes it seem like a hard sell the other way too.

Now an ARC vs MIAC post season bowl, that seems like a much more doable option. I'd love to see that. But with the expanded field you're probably talking about 2 vs 3 or even 3 vs 3 a fair number of years. Not sure if that diminishes excitement for something getting setup.

[doolittledog]

ARC head coaches conference records.  Feel free to check my math.

Jeff McMartin.. 116-34  6 titles
Tyler Staker.....46-19  1 title
Steve Helminiak  32-50
Chris Winter.....30- 2  3 titles
Brian Keller.....14-49
Reed Hoskins......6-10
Ryan Maiuri.......5- 3
Austin Dickinson..4-12
Joe Troche........2-22

Win %
Chris Winter  .938
McMartin  .733
Staker  .708
Maiuri  .625
Helminiak  .390
Hoskins  .375
Dickinson  .250
Keller  .222
Troche  .083

[HansenRatings]

I know NWC's president very casually floated the idea of going D3 (given his Simpson roots) but it didn't go anywhere. That was probably 15 years ago.

NWC, Morningside, Dordt, and Grandview migrating would lead to an insanely good conference in a number of sports. NWU and BVU would benefit with the NW Iowa group of schools. You'd have natural rivalries between NWC, Dordt, and Central with the Dutch Reformed angle. And if you went to some sort of divisional format you could alleviate travel strain.

But this is discussion board dreaming ... the ARC schools aren't going NAIA. And the recent success of all those GPAC schools + Grandview in NAIA makes it seem like a hard sell the other way too.

Now an ARC vs MIAC post season bowl, that seems like a much more doable option. I'd love to see that. But with the expanded field you're probably talking about 2 vs 3 or even 3 vs 3 a fair number of years. Not sure if that diminishes excitement for something getting setup.

Imagine how good that wrestling conference would be. Twenty nine national titles between Grandview & Wartburg.... and I'm sure the rest of DIII would probably try to put Augsburg and UWL in their qualifying tournament again in the next round of re-alignment.

[hazzben]

I know NWC's president very casually floated the idea of going D3 (given his Simpson roots) but it didn't go anywhere. That was probably 15 years ago.

NWC, Morningside, Dordt, and Grandview migrating would lead to an insanely good conference in a number of sports. NWU and BVU would benefit with the NW Iowa group of schools. You'd have natural rivalries between NWC, Dordt, and Central with the Dutch Reformed angle. And if you went to some sort of divisional format you could alleviate travel strain.

But this is discussion board dreaming ... the ARC schools aren't going NAIA. And the recent success of all those GPAC schools + Grandview in NAIA makes it seem like a hard sell the other way too.

Now an ARC vs MIAC post season bowl, that seems like a much more doable option. I'd love to see that. But with the expanded field you're probably talking about 2 vs 3 or even 3 vs 3 a fair number of years. Not sure if that diminishes excitement for something getting setup.

Imagine how good that wrestling conference would be. Twenty nine national titles between Grandview & Wartburg.... and I'm sure the rest of DIII would probably try to put Augsburg and UWL in their qualifying tournament again in the next round of re-alignment.

Not at wrestling's level, but men's and women's basketball and volleyball would also be loaded. It'd be a power conference. The issue is that to sustain that level of excellence in a program you need to have consistent postseason success. And moving all those quality programs into the same league diminishes their access to elite status and deep postseason success. NWC and Morningside taking turns for the past decade at being one of the top 2 NAIA programs is possible, but if Grandview was in that conference as well, one of those 3 gets pushed down a peg IMO.

In the ARC you've had typically two top dogs the last 20 years. Wartburg a lot and then Central. And then a rotation of the Coe's of the world when they are up and say Central is a bit down. But the best Wartburg and Central teams didn't exist concurrent with long stretches of national excellence at Coe or Simpson or UD. There's just not enough postseason access to sustain that many elite programs in a single conference.