FB: American Rivers Conference

[Schipper Strong]

We are 1 week away from Coe @ Cornell opening up the season

Anybody have any predictions on who will win this matchup? I fit a model on the Kohawks' margin of victory since 1998, and it says this year's game should be a ~38 point win for Coe, but by 2028, Cornell will win by nearly 100 points. The Rams are on the upswing!

Why are the Rams on an upswing of that magnitude? Are the trains shaking the field on pass plays?  I can't see what would cause that kind of swing.

[doolittledog]

We are 1 week away from Coe @ Cornell opening up the season

Anybody have any predictions on who will win this matchup? I fit a model on the Kohawks' margin of victory since 1998, and it says this year's game should be a ~38 point win for Coe, but by 2028, Cornell will win by nearly 100 points. The Rams are on the upswing!

Well, there was a 118 point swing between the 2023 Loras/Simpson game and their 2024 matchup.  We went from an 82-16 Loras win, to the next year seeing Simpson win 66-14.  So I guess anything is possible 

[HansenRatings]

Why are the Rams on an upswing of that magnitude? Are the trains shaking the field on pass plays?  I can't see what would cause that kind of swing.

I think you're aware, but just so we're all on the same page, it was a joke.

[DriftlessDuhawk]

Well, there was a 118 point swing between the 2023 Loras/Simpson game and their 2024 matchup.  We went from an 82-16 Loras win, to the next year seeing Simpson win 66-14.  So I guess anything is possible 
[/quote]

Why can't we have fun light light-hearted conversations on this board without bringing up anxiety producing memory recalls?!?!

[doolittledog]

Well, there was a 118 point swing between the 2023 Loras/Simpson game and their 2024 matchup.  We went from an 82-16 Loras win, to the next year seeing Simpson win 66-14.  So I guess anything is possible 

Why can't we have fun light light-hearted conversations on this board without bringing up anxiety producing memory recalls?!?!
[/quote]

Haha, yeah, I almost didn't make that post for that reason!  Even if it happened before your lifetime, Loras does have that 20 game win streak against UD from 1985-2004 

[doolittledog]

Dubuque added the football roster today.  After a quick glance, and I realize this will adjust as players will quit or get injured. 

I count 63 Freshmen
IL - 21
IA - 10
WI -  8
TX -  7
FL -  6
MN -  4
MO -  1
NE -  1
CA -  1
CO -  1
MI -  1
MS -  1
NC -  1

[DriftlessDuhawk]

Haha, yeah, I almost didn't make that post for that reason!  Even if it happened before your lifetime, Loras does have that 20 game win streak against UD from 1985-2004 

Trust me doolittle... I was reminded of said streak on a what seemed like a bi-monthly basis as a player...

I will say that I do not like that the Key game is so early this year. Week 3 and conference game number 1 feels all too early for what those of us on the eastern side of Dubuque think of as the biggest game of the year. Can't wait for games to be played this weekend!

[DriftlessDuhawk]

Looking at the ARC for week 1 does appear to be a touch lackluster in my opinion...

Wartburg and Monmouth have played some ok games over the last few years, but the Knights have been so good that I don't really see another outcome.

Talk of winning streaks above, Coe looks to increase their win streak over long-term rival Cornell to 25 years in a row. Central takes on Illinois Wesleyan, who has been struggling over the last few years. Loras hosts Hope, which was a playoff team last year and holds a number of one-sided victories over the Duhawks. BV and Luther both play teams that may actually lead to competitive football games, but don't exactly catch the eyes of people who may want to watch fundamentally sound football. NWU plays an NAIA team, which does not leave me much to comment on, as I know hardly anything about NAIA football.

And then UD plays UW-Stout and Simpson plays Augustana. I think that these two games will tell us the most from the weekend. A win by either conference team here would imply that someone outside of the top 3 of Wartburg/Central/Coe has a legitimate chance to contend for the conference title or an at-large bid. I think that Simpson beating Augustana would not be as impressive as UD beating Stout, but it would show that the Simpson program, which looks to be improving, is going to take a big step this year. UD beating Stout would be the big shocker of the weekend, as Stout went into the last weekend of the season last year with an opportunity to win the WIAC. It would be a great look for the conference and would signify the amount of depth in the league.

[HansenRatings]

NWU plays an NAIA team, which does not leave me much to comment on, as I know hardly anything about NAIA football.

To set a baseline for this one - my model has NWU as more than a 2 TD underdog. Dakota State's primary conference (NSAA) played their last season of football in 2024. It was one of the lower-tier conferences in NAIA, and they've now joined the Frontier conference, which is arguably the premier conference in NAIA. They were consistently mediocre in the NSAA. They'll probably struggle in the Frontier. So in if we look back at this game in hindsight and DSU goes something like 1-9, and think, "I thought Dakota State was supposed to be better than that," they probably are better than that.

[HansenRatings]

Just posted on Twitter: 2025 Conference Preview

As I note in the tweet, the run of simulations that I used for these projections assumed that Coe's QB, Krousie, was coming back. He was listed as a Junior on their official NCAA roster, but he graduated. He was about 2/3 of their passing production, so that's going to be a pretty good dip in their projections when I re-run after incorporating all roster updates.

EDIT: Krousie's lost productions is going to be worth ~1.75 ppg, which will put Coe essentially in a tie with Central for 2nd highest rating in the conference. This would move the Coe vs. Wartburg win probability in Wartburg's favor by ~3%, and Coe vs. Central in Central's favor by ~4%. The net result on the Pool A race is probably about 4-5% lower odds for Coe, and about 3/5 of those odds going toward Wartburg, and about 2/5 toward Central.

(right click and open in new tab for better resolution)

Revisiting this since I've re-run my numbers with a full roster analysis.

Conference Record Projections
Wartburg: 7.3-0.7
Central: 6.6-1.4
Coe: 6.2-1.8
Dubuque: 5.1-2.9
Loras: 2.8-5.2
Simpson: 2.7-5.3
NWU: 2.3-5.7
BVU: 2.2-5.8
Luther: 0.8-7.2

Pool A (conference championship) odds
Wartburg: 56.5%
Central: 24.9%
Coe: 15.4%
Dubuque: 3.0%
Simpson/Loras: 0.1%
The other 3: 0.0%

Overall playoff odds
Wartburg: 71.4%
Central: 48.6% (win vs. RMC and this will go up quite a bit)
Coe: 29.7%
Dubuque: 4.0%
Simpson: 0.2%
Loras: 0.1%
BVU/NWU/Luther: 0.0%

Coe's numbers went down quite a bit, and not just because of their QB's calss year being misclassified in their NCAA roster. They also had a good deal of non-graduation roster losses on defense (maybe those guys had their class year entered incorrectly, too?). Coe's a team that has really hung their hat on defense lately, and they rank 237 out of 239 teams in returning defensive production. There's no way around it, they're going to have some major growing pains on that side of the ball.