FB: American Rivers Conference

[Schipper Strong]

Hooray it is finally Central v Wartburg week and both teams are undefeated. This kind of reminds me of trying to handicap a stakes race. You know the talent is there, but you don't know which horse is ready to run a really big race. It looks like the track should be dry and fast.  I think to win, Central will have to get off to a fast start and avoid mistakes. Wartburg doesn't look like a team you want to play catch-up against. If this was a research paper, I would footnote Professor Obvious here.

Central has tended to get off to a slow start and make mistakes early so far this year. Maybe I should say that was the case with the two key city teams. They played phenomenal against RMC. Best full game I have seen in a long time. They do tend to play better when they think the odds are against them, which bodes well. They rely on the run more this year than most, which does not bode well against WB. Hoffman is back so that will be good. Last year was a close defensive game ending 10-6 Wartburg. Odds definitely favor Wartburg, but I was surprised to see some stats had us dead even. Home field and recent history say Wartburg wins. Since Wartburg broke Central's win streak record, I think Central should be the team to end it, poetic justice and all.

[HansenRatings]

Sort of off topic for the current season.  But...any new rumors or news for potential new conference members in the near future?

Around the time that Luther announced their departure, I saw somewhere that Monmouth and Northwestern St Paul were names mentioned, but not in any official capacity...from a travel perspective, possibly Augustana would be an interesting invite

I think that was from me. I had a source that told me those two had both officially previously petitioned the conference for membership, but no word on whether they were the top candidates from the ARC's perspective. I believe DriftlessDuhawk mentioned that a "travel partner" would be a sticking point among the "Olympic sports" for adding a school outside the current footprint, so adding someone like Northwestern without a travel partner seems unlikely. Monmouth isn't bad for travel. The Dubuque & CR schools can get there in ~2 hours, and Wartburg/Central/Simpson can get there in 3-1/2 ish. BVU and NWU, though...

[DriftlessDuhawk]

Hooray it is finally Central v Wartburg week and both teams are undefeated. This kind of reminds me of trying to handicap a stakes race. You know the talent is there, but you don't know which horse is ready to run a really big race. It looks like the track should be dry and fast.  I think to win, Central will have to get off to a fast start and avoid mistakes. Wartburg doesn't look like a team you want to play catch-up against. If this was a research paper, I would footnote Professor Obvious here.

Loras kind of showed the game plan for beating Wartburg last week. The Duhawks completely abandoned the run game and tried to build their entire game plan around 4-6 yard outs and sit routes. Wartburg pretty much allowed it to happen all day, too, which allowed the Duhawks to take a 13-6 lead into the half. The Wartburg defense is just so stout. They do not miss tackles! If Central is to pull off the upset, they will have to be ok living in that 4-6 yard range and just not expect much from their run game.

Wartburg's front 4 is one of the best D3 front 4s I have ever seen. Wartburg brought 5, maybe 3-4 times the whole game and immediately got pressure on each play. Their defense is set up so well that when those 4 players are on the back 7 may as well not even worry about the running backs unless they are catching the ball out of the backfield.

[Fannosaurus Rex]

Well that is discouraging. Central hasn't had much of a running game for several years now.  This year it has been much better. So maybe somehow it can contribute to a Central win Saturday.

[HansenRatings]

immediately got pressure on each play

This amuses to me, because I watched the first half and thought, "They're not getting pressure as much as they usually do."

The front four's ability to pressure QBs, even on 1-step (what we used to call 3-step) drops is the biggest difference between last year and this year. Teams have kind of known for a couple years now that the "don't even try to run" plan is your best bet against this D. Simpson has done it the last couple years (more successfully last year than this year), as has Central. Simpson last year ran the ball 13 times and dropped back 69 times.

[DriftlessDuhawk]

I was more so saying that when Wartburg chose to bring 5, they got pressure very quickly. I would have to go back and watch the first half again but it didn't feel like they brought 5 more than just a handful of times in the first half. They went to biltz a few more times in the second half in an attempt to speed up the Loras qb.

Not having to bring additional pressure often is a huge compliment to the Wartburg front. I will say I was impressed by how well the Duhawk offensive line held up for most of the game, especially with multiple starters out. That being said, when you tell an Oline they aren't going to have to run block and most of the passes should be coming out in under 2 seconds, it does make things easier.

[doolittledog]

We were planning on making the road trip down to Indianola this weekend.  Simpson is the only Iowa school in the ARC I have never visited and my wife liked the choices of post game meals/drinks within close proximity to their campus.  But we've been a little busy lately and decided watching from the comfort of our couch with a whole bunch of appetizers in front of us sounded like a better plan. 

This is a big one for the Spartans.  UD has looked decent, but hasn't really put a full game together this season.  Simpson seems to be making that push up the conference ladder to being a contender.  Something to prove for both schools this weekend. 

[Schipper Strong]

Congratulations to Wartburg on the win Saturday. Once again you were the better prepared team. 😢 Central did not seem to have either an offensive or defensive game plan which was very disappointing. It doesn't seem like we are able to make in game adjustments either. We made good adjustments at the half against UD, Loras and Wartburg, but we can't seem to adjust on the fly.

I am sure this is one of those "you can't win no matter what you do" situations and I have never played football, so those of you with game experience can give me your thoughts. Why when you are down 21-0 do you go for a field goal instead of the TD? To me it says we do not want to get shut out instead of we want to win. Then why do you do it a second time wheni  down 21-3? Yes, I know we made it and added a TD to get the game to 8 points, but you can't really expect that Wartburg won't score again.

I actually think 28-13 wasn't a disastrous outcome and give the players credit for that. I did not catch that our leading receiver was injured in the second quarter, but that is part of the game. I was just giving Wartburg too much credit for keeping him extremely well covered. Right now Central has to step it up just to get by a surging Simpson and a very tough Coe team.

[HansenRatings]

Congratulations to Wartburg on the win Saturday. Once again you were the better prepared team. 😢 Central did not seem to have either an offensive or defensive game plan which was very disappointing. It doesn't seem like we are able to make in game adjustments either. We made good adjustments at the half against UD, Loras and Wartburg, but we can't seem to adjust on the fly.

I am sure this is one of those "you can't win no matter what you do" situations and I have never played football, so those of you with game experience can give me your thoughts. Why when you are down 21-0 do you go for a field goal instead of the TD? To me it says we do not want to get shut out instead of we want to win. Then why do you do it a second time wheni  down 21-3? Yes, I know we made it and added a TD to get the game to 8 points, but you can't really expect that Wartburg won't score again.

I actually think 28-13 wasn't a disastrous outcome and give the players credit for that. I did not catch that our leading receiver was injured in the second quarter, but that is part of the game. I was just giving Wartburg too much credit for keeping him extremely well covered. Right now Central has to step it up just to get by a surging Simpson and a very tough Coe team.

The first field goal was on 4th & 14. You're stuck in a pretty rough spot there, even if you wanted to be aggressive. You're going to need 4 scores to win no matter what (3 scores to tie), so that attempt was defensible. The second field goal, on a 4th & 4 from the 8 yard line, was quite a bit less defensible. You're down by 3 scores, and you kick a field goal to end up still down by 3 scores?

Much less defensible than those field goal decisions was the timeout usage by Central in the second half. They used two timeouts on 3rd downs in the 3rd quarter, both while they were still down by 3 scores. You might need those later. The last timeout might have been the worst of the bunch, though. Down by 15 with under 4 minutes left, and calling a timeout to discuss your playcall for a 4th down? You have the ball... you cannot waste your timeouts in that situation when you are in control of the play clock. You have to save them for when the other team is in control of the play clock.

[Fannosaurus Rex]

I will defend the time-outs by noting that five yards are too hard to get against Wartburg so you don't want to give them up to a delay of game penalty. It is much harder to defend not being able to get the right people on the field and a play called in the allotted time. It looked to me like Central was the team with the big game jitters. It is not what this old fan is used to seeing.