FB: American Rivers Conference

[Schipper Strong]

Central got off to another bad start to the game against Simpson falling behind 10-0 after a mishandled snap on a punt gives Simpson the ball at Central's 16 yard line followed by an INT on third down giving them the ball on the Central 20 or so. We were able to change momentum without waiting for halftime and boy did it change! Hoffman drops the ball on a pass play and should have been sacked as it took about 3 running steps trying to scoop the ball up. Instead of a sack for a huge loss Hoffman throws a 47 yard TD pass. Add another offensive TD between two blocked/muffed punts for TDs and Central cruises into halftime. Both starting QBs injured and out for the second half. Dutch add one more TD to win 35-10. All scores coming off turnovers. Simpson scores TD on 2 plays in 42 seconds followed by a FG taking 6 plays and 2:42. Central gets 2 TDS on blocked punts and 3 offensive TDS on 4 plays totaling 1:03.

[doolittledog]

Dubuque concludes their season with a 27-20 victory over Luther.  Good luck to Luther next year in their move to the MWC. 

[MediaGuy]

I was hoping the Coe/Central game would be a defacto play-in game for the playoffs...but if Frank Rossi's NPI simulator is correct...a Coe win on Saturday will leave both teams on the outside looking in...https://x.com/FrankRossi/status/1987572394035147049?s=19

[Pat Coleman]

I'm not sure where the specific disconnect is with Frank's tool, other than to say that NPI is not actually a good predictor of future results.

Logan Hansen's tool uses his ratings to predict the results. It gives Coe a 76% chance of getting in if Coe wins, which is up from 62% last week when Greg and I talked about this scenario in our podcast. (Note that I'm not 100% sure if Logan is updated for this week yet, so just hold a small asterisk in your mind about that.)

[Schipper Strong]

Easy to resolve. Central just needs to win. A big challenge with the way both teams are playing now. Central needs to step up to the challenge.

[Spurrier]

Question...Best Town for a retired couple in Eastern Iowa?

[HansenRatings]

Both starting QBs injured and out for the second half.

I didn't notice this... Any idea on their status for Coe?

[doolittledog]

Question...Best Town for a retired couple in Eastern Iowa?

Hmm, let me think.  Would 1/2 of that retired couple be interested in the roll of volunteer assistant football coach at a D3 school in a historical river town?  At a school that may or may not be their alma mater?

[MediaGuy]

The NCAA just announced that home teams will have the discretion to implement video replay review in the playoffs up until the semi finals...I'd like to point out that  having the equipment to do replay doesn't mean anything if the camera operators aren't professional and disciplined.  I've watched hundreds of hours of d3 video feeds over the last few years and well over 90% of them have not had either cameras in position or operators disciplined enough to capture video that gives me any more insight to what happened on the field than the trusted real time view of an official who is in position.
Also officials call the game differently when they know there is replay because they dont want an inadvertent whistle to call a play dead when they shouldn't...and when the replay cameras aren't in position or dont capture the play correctly, there will be plays that are extended when they shouldn't be.
Long post short...the replays we see on ESPN in the semifinals and finals are captured by professional camera operators who do this for a living...and most d3 games, even at top schools are produced by student workers...In my opinion this will result in more inaccurate officiating unless professional camera crews are implemented...I'd rather the NCAA spend money on more flights and a true seeded bracket.

[Schipper Strong]

Both starting QBs injured and out for the second half.

I didn't notice this... Any idea on their status for Coe?

I do not know the status of Hoffman for Saturday. Central's backup QB did a good job Saturday and it was the second time this season he has played the entire second half because of injury to Hoffman. In the write up of the game they did not even touch on it or recognize Kerndt for stepping up, maybe hoping nobody would notice. Central is riddled with injuries including to our best receiver from the WB game.

Some of you will remember I have not been the biggest Hoffman fan over his 4 years at Central. He has played better this year and definitely has far more experience than Kerndt. Honestly though, I would have more big game faith in the freshman Kerndt than Hoffman. I say that because as a Pella resident I saw him play in high school and take his team through big games all the way to the state championship. Last year's team was not one Pella fans expected to get that far if I am honest. On running plays he is every bit as good as Hoffman. They have not had him passing much at all, so maybe they saw something in practice that keeps them playing it safe. He is capable.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HFq0maixQGo

[Pat Coleman]

The NCAA just announced that home teams will have the discretion to implement video replay review in the playoffs up until the semi finals...I'd like to point out that  having the equipment to do replay doesn't mean anything if the camera operators aren't professional and disciplined.  I've watched hundreds of hours of d3 video feeds over the last few years and well over 90% of them have not had either cameras in position or operators disciplined enough to capture video that gives me any more insight to what happened on the field than the trusted real time view of an official who is in position.
Also officials call the game differently when they know there is replay because they dont want an inadvertent whistle to call a play dead when they shouldn't...and when the replay cameras aren't in position or dont capture the play correctly, there will be plays that are extended when they shouldn't be.
Long post short...the replays we see on ESPN in the semifinals and finals are captured by professional camera operators who do this for a living...and most d3 games, even at top schools are produced by student workers...In my opinion this will result in more inaccurate officiating unless professional camera crews are implemented...I'd rather the NCAA spend money on more flights and a true seeded bracket.

Why would it result in more inaccurate officiating? If the angle doesn't show anything, then it doesn't show anything -- it doesn't make officiating less accurate if the replay is unusable.

SJU fans should understand, if nothing else, the benefit of having immediate replay review of a targeting call. And that's something we talked about in our interview with the NCAA committee chair when we chatted about this very issue a couple of weeks ago.

https://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2025/10/29/atn-podcast-393-a-chat-with-the-chair-2025-style/

[MediaGuy]

The NCAA just announced that home teams will have the discretion to implement video replay review in the playoffs up until the semi finals...I'd like to point out that  having the equipment to do replay doesn't mean anything if the camera operators aren't professional and disciplined.  I've watched hundreds of hours of d3 video feeds over the last few years and well over 90% of them have not had either cameras in position or operators disciplined enough to capture video that gives me any more insight to what happened on the field than the trusted real time view of an official who is in position.
Also officials call the game differently when they know there is replay because they dont want an inadvertent whistle to call a play dead when they shouldn't...and when the replay cameras aren't in position or dont capture the play correctly, there will be plays that are extended when they shouldn't be.
Long post short...the replays we see on ESPN in the semifinals and finals are captured by professional camera operators who do this for a living...and most d3 games, even at top schools are produced by student workers...In my opinion this will result in more inaccurate officiating unless professional camera crews are implemented...I'd rather the NCAA spend money on more flights and a true seeded bracket.

Why would it result in more inaccurate officiating? If the angle doesn't show anything, then it doesn't show anything -- it doesn't make officiating less accurate if the replay is unusable.

SJU fans should understand, if nothing else, the benefit of having immediate replay review of a targeting call. And that's something we talked about in our interview with the NCAA committee chair when we chatted about this very issue a couple of weeks ago.

https://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2025/10/29/atn-podcast-393-a-chat-with-the-chair-2025-style/

First of all, I have no problem with using replay to review targeting, as that is something that can be game changing and unfairly punish a kid for a call where the official isn't in a great position to make the call in real time.  But that can be done already with the ipads on the sideline the coaches have to review gametape in real time.

My concern is that officials start to rely on replay when there isn't a reliable replay to see.  I hope I'm wrong, I hope that the games are continued to be officiated just like we have seen in the semi's and finals for the last 10 years.  But if the officiating starts to look more like the NFL or FBS football, where officials don't call a runner down on close plays...or don't whistle a questionable pass incomplete or don't call a touchdown or first down because they think they have a reliable replay to check then I'm skeptical that this is a good option.

I'd like to have seen the data from the conferences who have been using replay all year and see how they have been making it work, what problems there are, how they fix them before just announcing 10 days before playoff games that it is an option...It just feels rushed and not thought through.  Kind of like cancelling a game in the 3rd due to weather and then making up a score not thinking about how it will affect NPI or tiebreakers later.

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong.  I wish there was replay in the Alma/Hope game earlier this year, I hope there is the ability to review targeting in real time to make sure they get the call right, I hope there is a system in place to make sure there aren't egregious, obvious errors in playoff games. 

All I'm saying is that as long as the officials don't change the way they are currently officiating and we use replay to double check important, game changing plays, then great.  But if officials start relying on replay, i'm not convinced that the kid running a camera for class credit a few times every year can be counted on to get a better angle to see a play than an official in position and looking at what he is supposed to be looking at.

[FishHack76]

Just to see where my local teams might fit into the bracket. I did the potential brackets for the four "Western" top seeds. Of course, with this, there are a great number of possibilities and any little change can start a domino effect.
I tried to make sure the teams in the Top 24 in the NPI got a first-round bye and looked at this geographically -- except for the island game of Chapman-Whitworth, whose winner also could get sent to NCC again (because of O'Hare Airport). Any or all five of the Michigan and Indiana teams could go east but I sent them toward Wartburg or NCC. All those schools are too far of a drive from Bethel or UW-River Falls.


Hanover at Alma
winner goes to NCC

UW-Whitewater at Hope

---------------------

DePauw at Wheaton
winner goes to Wartburg

Wabash at Monmouth

----------------------
Chapman at Whitworth
winner goes to Bethel (Minneapolis-St. Paul airport)

Central at UW-Platteville (or UW-LaCrosse)

---------------------
Crown at Concordia (WI)
winner goes to UW-River Falls

St. John's at UW-LaCrosse (or UW-Platteville)

[HansenRatings]

DePauw at Wheaton

Wabash at Monmouth

There's no way DePauw and Wabash both make the field. Swap in a 4th WIAC school in that place (assuming UWW wins vs. UWO).

If DePauw or Wabash makes the field, they'll also be 7 or 8 seeds better than Wheaton, and will be one of the teams in line for a first round bye (the winner of Wabash/DePauw will get a good NPI boost when they win this week). DePauw is also one of the very few teams who can drive to Berry (Hanover and LaGrange being the other two). I suspect there is at least a chance they end up in that pod. Wabash cannot drive to Berry.

Another domino is the Central/Coe game. If Coe makes the field instead of Central, they'll probably be in one of the pigtail games, whereas Central would likely get a first round bye.

[Schipper Strong]

Both starting QBs injured and out for the second half.

I didn't notice this... Any idea on their status for Coe?

It was not Central's top 2 QBs hurt last week. It was Central and Simpson's starters both out with injuries.