FB: American Rivers Conference

[CarollFan]

Coe/Concordia-WI:  "How the Numbers Stack Up"

https://kohawkathletics.com/sports/football/stats
https://cuwfalcons.com/sports/football/stats

Coe routed Buena Vista 3 weeks after Wisconsin Lutheran lost to Buena Vista. The Warriors were still in the throes of a slow start at that time, but righted the ship enough to finish 5-5 on the year. The Falcons took early control at the top of the NACC and never looked back. This will be their last NACC game as they move to the CCIW-leaving '26 on-paper favorites Aurora and St. Norbert to jockey at the top in the future.

CUW joins the CCIW in 2027.

https://cciw.org/news/2025/9/17/general-concordia-university-wisconsin-to-join-cciw-as-10th-member-in-2027-28.aspx

[WLCALUM83]

Sorry, my bad--

[DriftlessDuhawk]

I haven't seen a post about the vacancy but I recently ran across the job posting for a new athletic director at UD. Not sure what the background story is there, but they just hired an athletic director in 2022.

https://ncaamarket.ncaa.org/jobs/21785808/director-of-athletics

[doolittledog]

I haven't seen a post about the vacancy but I recently ran across the job posting for a new athletic director at UD. Not sure what the background story is there, but they just hired an athletic director in 2022.

https://ncaamarket.ncaa.org/jobs/21785808/director-of-athletics

He was also a Dean at the school and his wife was a higher up as well.  I haven't heard anything so will do some digging. 

[hazzben]

Coe/Concordia-WI:  "How the Numbers Stack Up"

https://kohawkathletics.com/sports/football/stats
https://cuwfalcons.com/sports/football/stats

Coe routed Buena Vista 3 weeks after Wisconsin Lutheran lost to Buena Vista. The Warriors were still in the throes of a slow start at that time, but righted the ship enough to finish 5-5 on the year. The Falcons took early control at the top of the NACC and never looked back. This will be their last NACC game as they move to the CCIW-leaving '26 on-paper favorites Aurora and St. Norbert to jockey at the top in the future.

Since there's obviously a Coe angle on this board, thought I'd share some data I got on the NCC quad. Team stats listed in order of Logan's Predictive Rating. National Rank listed in order for each team:
Scoring O, Scoring D, Total O, Total D, Red Zone O, Red Zone D, Pass Eff, Pass Eff D, Rush O, Rush D, TO Margin, 1st Down O, 1st Down D, 3rd Down, 3rd Down D, 4th Down, 4th Down D

1. North Central: 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 6, 24, 11, 8, 25, 5, 3, 1 - Ave: 6.5
3. Bethel: 2, 2, 7, 6, 10, 6, 35, 6, 17, 5, 8, 2, 3, 7, 4, 27, 3 - Ave: 8.8
5. UWL: 70, 69, 62, 74, 89, 194, 72, 62, 108, 84, 65, 97, 46, 28, 97, 43, 149 - Ave: 82.9
7. UWP: 45, 53, 42, 122, 135, 112, 41, 84, 85, 56, 43, 41, 110, 91, 103, 13, 60 - Ave: 72.7
16. Hope: 10, 27, 2, 28, 78, 86, 15, 49, 12, 9, 14, 5, 36, 17, 44, 8, 31 - Ave: 27.7
26. Alma: 19, 103, 5, 191, 20, 71, 13, 125, 9, 66, 54, 10, 229, 21, 156, 63, 43 - Ave: 70.5
28. Hanover
31. Coe: 34, 29, 8, 73, 123, 26, 4, 24, 33, 102, 108, 41, 116, 68, 58, 183, 81 - Ave: 65.4
42. Grove City
116. Concordia (Wisc): 61, 64, 48, 61, 213, 22, 39, 40, 116, 87, 88, 71, 52, 66, 45, 135, 75 - Ave: 75.5

- UWL & UWP national averages are deflated playing in the WIAC, inverse for Concordia in the NACC.


This is a really deep quad, I think by Logan's metrics its the toughest ever. The only result I'd consider an upset would be Concordia beating Coe. Every other matchup outside of teams beating NCC feels like it should be very competitive. I didn't look up stats for the Hanover or Grove City, they're solid teams but NCC awaits in Rd 2. The MIAA could make a statement by bouncing 1 if not 2 WIAC teams, neither would be a shocking result.

[doolittledog]

Let's go Coe!

[hazzben]

Coe looked sharp today. Gave up yards but made tons a big plays in key moments. Concordia Wisconsin had just no defense and could never get off the field. Key was Coe's very good red zone D against Concordia's very bad red zone offense. Coe did a good job of not giving up the long score, little chance Concordia was going to punch it in once they got close.

[GusD]

Duhawks found their way into the win column this week in Lincoln. And while the game was pretty exciting, it would be much more accurate to say that NWU lost the game. NWU was up 28-14 in the second half and proceeded to miss a 38 yard field goal and fumbled the snap on the Loras 1-yard line to squander multiple chances to go up three scores and put away any chance of a comeback. The Duhawks then played the fourth quarter as, in my opinion, they should play every game and just started airing the ball out to try and catch up. After scoring once to cut the score to 28-21 the Duhawks kicked off with the ball landing at the NWU 15 yard line, where somehow the ball just didn't move (very similar to a Jared Abbredaris fumble in the Rose Bowl against Oregon in 2012, a play that me and other UW fans replay in our minds often). The Duhawks recovered, scored a TD, got a stop, and then drove again to kick a game winning 38-yard field goal that was maybe good from 39 yards. Great fight from a winless team, but again the process does not exude confidence to Loras fans and alumni.

It seems like NWU finds ways to lose games on a regular basis. They have a sparkling record of ineptitude over many years. Since joining the ARC they have an in-conference record of 10-43 to date. Since 2016 they are 25-62 overall. Their last winning season was 2013.
The coach has been there since 1996. Perhaps it's time to consider new leadership.

With the close of the conference regular season, the resignation of NWU Head Coach Brian Keller becomes effective following 30 years at the helm. As previously indicated, the Prairie Wolves last winning season was 2013. Over the last 20 years they've had only 5 winning seasons and 3 of those 5 were from 18-20 years ago. In the last 10 years they posted a record of 25-66 under Keller's leadership. Their only win this year was against a winless team. Seems like a change was not just due, but overdue.

[hazzben]

Coe @ Bethel
Wheaton @ Wartburg

Couldn't ask for two better matchups, but this board is dead quiet. Looks like it's going to be very cold come Saturday up in Arden Hills. Not sure that it favors one team or the other. I know from last year Coe will battle and come out swinging. Bethel Redzone O vs Coe's Redzone D and Coe's passing attack vs BU secondary are my keys to the game.

Wartburg's scoring D and rush D are top 5. Wheaton is great on 3rd down and incredibly efficient passing the ball. Intersting matchup since while Wheaton is balanced, their strength isn't rushing, which negates a little of Wart's edge. If Wartburg can keep the score in the teens I think they advance. If Wheaton gets above 20 I'm not sure Wartburg can keep up.

[DriftlessDuhawk]

I just hope that Wartburg loses so that the multiple coaches who applied for the Loras HC job are able to interview sooner

With all seriousness these two games should both be great. I think that Wartburg got a bad draw with Wheaton in the second round but I think that the defense is ready for just about any team in the country. I think the game will ultimately be decided between the Wheaton defense and Wartburg's offense. Which of the two "lesser" sides of each team will show up? I think Wartburg pulls it out but it is a one score game.

I think that Coe faces a much more uphill battle. Bethel has shown they are a true force nationally. Coe has challenged themselves in the noncon over the last couple years to their credit but have not been able to break through that barrier.  The familiarity of these two teams I think is a very interesting addition to this match up. I think Coe keeps it close for about 3.5 quarters but Bethel pulls away late and wins by two scores.

[HansenRatings]

Intersting matchup since while Wheaton is balanced, their strength isn't rushing, which negates a little of Wart's edge.

Wartburg's rush defense has the better stats, but I don't know if I would say the rush D is "better" than the pass D - it's just the nature of the defense (and teams have stopped even trying to run on them). I wouldn't be surprised if they have the lowest average depth of target against in the country, and they are second in the country in yards per reception allowed (8.6 yards/rec, UChicago is at 8.5 yards/rec). They're very, very good at perimeter tackling and preventing completions beyond 10 yards.

[cuyahogacuse]

Latest forecast for Saturday in Waverly:

28° | 3-5" of snow

Who does this favor?

[USee]

Intersting matchup since while Wheaton is balanced, their strength isn't rushing, which negates a little of Wart's edge.

Wartburg's rush defense has the better stats, but I don't know if I would say the rush D is "better" than the pass D - it's just the nature of the defense (and teams have stopped even trying to run on them). I wouldn't be surprised if they have the lowest average depth of target against in the country, and they are second in the country in yards per reception allowed (8.6 yards/rec, UChicago is at 8.5 yards/rec). They're very, very good at perimeter tackling and preventing completions beyond 10 yards.

Certainly this is a by product of how Wartburg plays defense. Almost exclusively zone with 2 or 3 deep all the time. No big plays, keep everything in front of you and gang tackle. They must be close to the best team in the country in not allowing Yds after contact. Zone also yields more interceptions than man to man (14). And 26 sacks almost all from the DL.