FB: American Southwest Conference

[jekelish]

HPU and ETBU will be buried if Trinity, UMHB, and Hardin Simmons were in conference together with them.

May as well just go to NAIA if you ever want to have football success again. 

I hate to say it because I know some folks at HPU and they're good people, but I don't see any D3 path for them outside of NAIA if the ASC goes away. (Not that NAIA is bad; I have some deep connections to that level, and respect the heck out of the schools at the level that do things well, as well as the national office. But it's obviously not ideal for a small school trying to hold on from an enrollment standpoint, in this day and age.)

[Mavchamp]

HPU and ETBU will be buried if Trinity, UMHB, and Hardin Simmons were in conference together with them.

May as well just go to NAIA if you ever want to have football success again. 

I hate to say it because I know some folks at HPU and they're good people, but I don't see any D3 path for them outside of NAIA if the ASC goes away. (Not that NAIA is bad; I have some deep connections to that level, and respect the heck out of the schools at the level that do things well, as well as the national office. But it's obviously not ideal for a small school trying to hold on from an enrollment standpoint, in this day and age.)

If the ASC fails I think HSU and UMHB would be forced to join the LSC.  They may not want that...but I don't see anywhere else they could land.  I think they would be pretty competitive.  Maybe not playoff worthy...but I think they would be in the top half of the conference annually with occasional playoffs possible.

I think both ETBU and HPU would most likely end up in the NAIA in the Sooner Conference.  I'd like to think the SCAC would take them...but it seems unlikely.  ETBU could easily be travel partners with Centenary and Letourneau.  HPU wouldn't have that luxury due to geography. 

I agree HPU would likely be out of D3 is the ASC crashed.

ETBU could be a long shot for the SAA if they are desperate for members. Travel would suck.   

I don't think ETBU would consider LSC....doesn't make geographical sense.  But the GAC would be a long shot.

Like I said..... the ASC could end up being a collection of schools that don't really want to be together...but are forced to remain together in order to remain in D3.

The only other possible option would be for a new conference to be formed for orphans that don't want ASC, SCAC, or SAA baggage.

The baptist bond will be tested in coming years.

[AndrewB]

Question for any UMHB fans.  Just checking last years roster and you had 108 freshman on the team.  How many are you expecting to still be on the team this year as sophomores?  What do you expect this upcoming freshman class to be for numbers?  Are they usually that high in number for a freshman class?  Thanks

[Crubacker]

Typically UMHB has over 200 kids reporting to camp each year.  Not sure exactly on the breakdown numbers per class but incoming is usually over a 100 every year(including transfers)

[jknezek]

I'm not a UMHB guy, but I did look at these numbers in the past for both UMHB and other programs. Here's what I found in general (there is a difference between the top tier D3 programs like UMHB and the other tiers, that's why the ranges are pretty large).


Less than 50% of those 100+ first years will be on the roster this year. It might be as low as 25 or 30%. This is the biggest "loss rate," so it has the biggest variance. Of those who remain as sophomores, about 2/3rds will be on the roster as Juniors, and about 70-80% of the juniors have remained as Seniors. So, in very broad terms, if you start with 100 first years, you'll have between 30 and 50 sophomores, you'll have 20-40 juniors, and you'll have 15-30 seniors.

The transfer portal does make this a lot more volatile, and I suspect the actual numbers of first year through seniors holds up, but the actual same names is even lower. In other words, you may still have the same general numbers, but that includes a lot more athletes transferring in and out. But yeah, if you have over 100 first years, you generally have 15-30 seniors. How many of those have been there all 4 years given the current system? No idea, and I'm guessing there is huge variation between schools that are heavy with transfers and the smaller, more academic schools that have a lot fewer transfers in general.

[crufootball]

HPU and ETBU will be buried if Trinity, UMHB, and Hardin Simmons were in conference together with them.

May as well just go to NAIA if you ever want to have football success again. 

If—and I think it's a very unlikely scenario—Trinity were to join the ASC in any fashion, I could see ETBU benefiting almost as much as it might lose in the new NPI landscape. Trinity's addition would provide the conference with greater long-term stability while also giving every member another high-quality NPI game on its schedule

Historically, defeating Trinity, HSU, and UMHB has been a challenge for nearly every program. However, if ETBU could finish 8-2 in a conference that included those 3, you would have to think they would have a legitimate chance at an at-large bid.

Looking at ETBU's 2026 schedule, replacing Louisiana Christian with Trinity would make an 8-2 record difficult but not impossible. During ETBU's strongest stretch from 2015–2019, the Tigers consistently fielded competitive teams but often seemed to have one not great loss that kept them from finishing with a more impressive record. If they can avoid that stumble while navigating a stronger conference schedule, an 8-2 finish could put them squarely in the at-large conversation.

[MCScots2013]

Trinity, Berry and Centre (along with Maryville in our last USAC year) made the playoffs in 2024, so it's possible you could see a Trinity-added ASC getting 3 playoff teams due to NPI.  The SAA did it.