FB: American Southwest Conference

[jekelish]

HPU and ETBU will be buried if Trinity, UMHB, and Hardin Simmons were in conference together with them.

May as well just go to NAIA if you ever want to have football success again. 

I hate to say it because I know some folks at HPU and they're good people, but I don't see any D3 path for them outside of NAIA if the ASC goes away. (Not that NAIA is bad; I have some deep connections to that level, and respect the heck out of the schools at the level that do things well, as well as the national office. But it's obviously not ideal for a small school trying to hold on from an enrollment standpoint, in this day and age.)

[Mavchamp]

HPU and ETBU will be buried if Trinity, UMHB, and Hardin Simmons were in conference together with them.

May as well just go to NAIA if you ever want to have football success again. 

I hate to say it because I know some folks at HPU and they're good people, but I don't see any D3 path for them outside of NAIA if the ASC goes away. (Not that NAIA is bad; I have some deep connections to that level, and respect the heck out of the schools at the level that do things well, as well as the national office. But it's obviously not ideal for a small school trying to hold on from an enrollment standpoint, in this day and age.)

If the ASC fails I think HSU and UMHB would be forced to join the LSC.  They may not want that...but I don't see anywhere else they could land.  I think they would be pretty competitive.  Maybe not playoff worthy...but I think they would be in the top half of the conference annually with occasional playoffs possible.

I think both ETBU and HPU would most likely end up in the NAIA in the Sooner Conference.  I'd like to think the SCAC would take them...but it seems unlikely.  ETBU could easily be travel partners with Centenary and Letourneau.  HPU wouldn't have that luxury due to geography. 

I agree HPU would likely be out of D3 is the ASC crashed.

ETBU could be a long shot for the SAA if they are desperate for members. Travel would suck.   

I don't think ETBU would consider LSC....doesn't make geographical sense.  But the GAC would be a long shot.

Like I said..... the ASC could end up being a collection of schools that don't really want to be together...but are forced to remain together in order to remain in D3.

The only other possible option would be for a new conference to be formed for orphans that don't want ASC, SCAC, or SAA baggage.

The baptist bond will be tested in coming years.

[AndrewB]

Question for any UMHB fans.  Just checking last years roster and you had 108 freshman on the team.  How many are you expecting to still be on the team this year as sophomores?  What do you expect this upcoming freshman class to be for numbers?  Are they usually that high in number for a freshman class?  Thanks

[Crubacker]

Typically UMHB has over 200 kids reporting to camp each year.  Not sure exactly on the breakdown numbers per class but incoming is usually over a 100 every year(including transfers)

[jknezek]

I'm not a UMHB guy, but I did look at these numbers in the past for both UMHB and other programs. Here's what I found in general (there is a difference between the top tier D3 programs like UMHB and the other tiers, that's why the ranges are pretty large).


Less than 50% of those 100+ first years will be on the roster this year. It might be as low as 25 or 30%. This is the biggest "loss rate," so it has the biggest variance. Of those who remain as sophomores, about 2/3rds will be on the roster as Juniors, and about 70-80% of the juniors have remained as Seniors. So, in very broad terms, if you start with 100 first years, you'll have between 30 and 50 sophomores, you'll have 20-40 juniors, and you'll have 15-30 seniors.

The transfer portal does make this a lot more volatile, and I suspect the actual numbers of first year through seniors holds up, but the actual same names is even lower. In other words, you may still have the same general numbers, but that includes a lot more athletes transferring in and out. But yeah, if you have over 100 first years, you generally have 15-30 seniors. How many of those have been there all 4 years given the current system? No idea, and I'm guessing there is huge variation between schools that are heavy with transfers and the smaller, more academic schools that have a lot fewer transfers in general.

[crufootball]

HPU and ETBU will be buried if Trinity, UMHB, and Hardin Simmons were in conference together with them.

May as well just go to NAIA if you ever want to have football success again. 

If—and I think it's a very unlikely scenario—Trinity were to join the ASC in any fashion, I could see ETBU benefiting almost as much as it might lose in the new NPI landscape. Trinity's addition would provide the conference with greater long-term stability while also giving every member another high-quality NPI game on its schedule

Historically, defeating Trinity, HSU, and UMHB has been a challenge for nearly every program. However, if ETBU could finish 8-2 in a conference that included those 3, you would have to think they would have a legitimate chance at an at-large bid.

Looking at ETBU's 2026 schedule, replacing Louisiana Christian with Trinity would make an 8-2 record difficult but not impossible. During ETBU's strongest stretch from 2015–2019, the Tigers consistently fielded competitive teams but often seemed to have one not great loss that kept them from finishing with a more impressive record. If they can avoid that stumble while navigating a stronger conference schedule, an 8-2 finish could put them squarely in the at-large conversation.

[MCScots2013]

Trinity, Berry and Centre (along with Maryville in our last USAC year) made the playoffs in 2024, so it's possible you could see a Trinity-added ASC getting 3 playoff teams due to NPI.  The SAA did it.

[Mavchamp]

HPU and ETBU will be buried if Trinity, UMHB, and Hardin Simmons were in conference together with them.

May as well just go to NAIA if you ever want to have football success again. 

If—and I think it's a very unlikely scenario—Trinity were to join the ASC in any fashion, I could see ETBU benefiting almost as much as it might lose in the new NPI landscape. Trinity's addition would provide the conference with greater long-term stability while also giving every member another high-quality NPI game on its schedule

Historically, defeating Trinity, HSU, and UMHB has been a challenge for nearly every program. However, if ETBU could finish 8-2 in a conference that included those 3, you would have to think they would have a legitimate chance at an at-large bid.

Looking at ETBU's 2026 schedule, replacing Louisiana Christian with Trinity would make an 8-2 record difficult but not impossible. During ETBU's strongest stretch from 2015–2019, the Tigers consistently fielded competitive teams but often seemed to have one not great loss that kept them from finishing with a more impressive record. If they can avoid that stumble while navigating a stronger conference schedule, an 8-2 finish could put them squarely in the at-large conversation.

Hard to imagine ETBU finishing (8-2) in an ASC that has Trinity, UMHB, and HSU in it.  The Tigers are (3-53) Vs. UMHB and HSU.   They only have one game with Trinity.  (7-3) would be possible....but they would desperately need an upset to achieve that (8-2) mark.

I admire how consistent the purple schools have been the last 25+ years....they have owned the conference.  I just wish other conference members (ETBU) could become more competitive (ETBU) and occasionally get a big win over HSU (ETBU) and UMHB (ETBU) to keep things exciting (ETBU).

 

[crufootball]

HPU and ETBU will be buried if Trinity, UMHB, and Hardin Simmons were in conference together with them.

May as well just go to NAIA if you ever want to have football success again. 

If—and I think it's a very unlikely scenario—Trinity were to join the ASC in any fashion, I could see ETBU benefiting almost as much as it might lose in the new NPI landscape. Trinity's addition would provide the conference with greater long-term stability while also giving every member another high-quality NPI game on its schedule

Historically, defeating Trinity, HSU, and UMHB has been a challenge for nearly every program. However, if ETBU could finish 8-2 in a conference that included those 3, you would have to think they would have a legitimate chance at an at-large bid.

Looking at ETBU's 2026 schedule, replacing Louisiana Christian with Trinity would make an 8-2 record difficult but not impossible. During ETBU's strongest stretch from 2015–2019, the Tigers consistently fielded competitive teams but often seemed to have one not great loss that kept them from finishing with a more impressive record. If they can avoid that stumble while navigating a stronger conference schedule, an 8-2 finish could put them squarely in the at-large conversation.

Hard to imagine ETBU finishing (8-2) in an ASC that has Trinity, UMHB, and HSU in it.  The Tigers are (3-53) Vs. UMHB and HSU.   They only have one game with Trinity.  (7-3) would be possible....but they would desperately need an upset to achieve that (8-2) mark.

I admire how consistent the purple schools have been the last 25+ years....they have owned the conference.  I just wish other conference members (ETBU) could become more competitive (ETBU) and occasionally get a big win over HSU (ETBU) and UMHB (ETBU) to keep things exciting (ETBU).

 

Consistency is the thing about the powers of any sport that I think does not get enough attention, yes it is great to be the best for a season or two but for any team that can remain near/ be on top and almost always meet expectations is more impressive to me.

As for ETBU, it clearly wouldn't be easy BUT if they could play consistent enough to be more confident they could go 7-0 against everyone else then stealing a game against the other 3 isn't so big a hill. UMHB couldn't beat HSU, Trinity, Linfield, Wesley or UWW until they did.

[Mavchamp]

HPU and ETBU will be buried if Trinity, UMHB, and Hardin Simmons were in conference together with them.

May as well just go to NAIA if you ever want to have football success again. 

If—and I think it's a very unlikely scenario—Trinity were to join the ASC in any fashion, I could see ETBU benefiting almost as much as it might lose in the new NPI landscape. Trinity's addition would provide the conference with greater long-term stability while also giving every member another high-quality NPI game on its schedule

Historically, defeating Trinity, HSU, and UMHB has been a challenge for nearly every program. However, if ETBU could finish 8-2 in a conference that included those 3, you would have to think they would have a legitimate chance at an at-large bid.

Looking at ETBU's 2026 schedule, replacing Louisiana Christian with Trinity would make an 8-2 record difficult but not impossible. During ETBU's strongest stretch from 2015–2019, the Tigers consistently fielded competitive teams but often seemed to have one not great loss that kept them from finishing with a more impressive record. If they can avoid that stumble while navigating a stronger conference schedule, an 8-2 finish could put them squarely in the at-large conversation.

Hard to imagine ETBU finishing (8-2) in an ASC that has Trinity, UMHB, and HSU in it.  The Tigers are (3-53) Vs. UMHB and HSU.   They only have one game with Trinity.  (7-3) would be possible....but they would desperately need an upset to achieve that (8-2) mark.

I admire how consistent the purple schools have been the last 25+ years....they have owned the conference.  I just wish other conference members (ETBU) could become more competitive (ETBU) and occasionally get a big win over HSU (ETBU) and UMHB (ETBU) to keep things exciting (ETBU).

 

Consistency is the thing about the powers of any sport that I think does not get enough attention, yes it is great to be the best for a season or two but for any team that can remain near/ be on top and almost always meet expectations is more impressive to me.

As for ETBU, it clearly wouldn't be easy BUT if they could play consistent enough to be more confident they could go 7-0 against everyone else then stealing a game against the other 3 isn't so big a hill. UMHB couldn't beat HSU, Trinity, Linfield, Wesley or UWW until they did.

ETBU needs a few things to consistently compete with the purple schools.  This is just my opinion.....

1.  Coaching consistency.  This is the biggest thing IMHO.  HSU and UMHB have each only had 2 HFC in the last 25 seasons.  ETBU has had 7 in the same amount of time.  The coaching stability of the purple schools is HUUUGE.  Meanwhile the Tigers are changing every 3 years or so.  Hard to get any kind of consistency with that.

2.  Be better about recruiting local talent.  ETBU is only 25 miles from Carthage which is by far the Goliath of 4A football in Texas.  Longview is a 6A power and is only 20 miles away.  While Marshall HS isn't on the level of Longview and Carthage....they are a consistent 5A playoff team.  Toss in Tearkana, Tyler, and Shreveport....there's a bevy of talent in the backyard.  But you look at the roster....you mostly see Dallas and Houston area kids coming to ETBU.  They need to do better about homegrown talent.

3.  ETBU has athletic facilities that would make a lot of D2 schools jealous in the area of basketball, baseball, and softball.  While Ornelas Stadium is serviceable.....its clear after looking at the rest of the athletic facilities that the football stadium is an afterthought.  I don't even think the stadium is a bad facility....but when compared to the rest of the campus, it's pretty forgettable.  Then look at what UMHB has...and well....there ya go.  An investment in Ornelas Stadium is needed.

4.  Lastly...but not least....is a commitment from administration.  When you look across ETBU's athletic programs....you see relatively recent NCAA playoff success in Mens Basketball, women's basketball, baseball, and especially softball.  Football hasn't had a conference championship since 2015.  They haven't played in a playoff game since 2003.  I already stated their record Vs. HSU and UMHB. It's almost like they have resigned themselves to, "well...we just aren't a football school".  Not saying that's the case....just saying it FEELS that way.  We seem to be competitive in most sports....but in football it's blowout after blowout year after year by the two giants.  Granted...this is somewhat of a generic thing to list while the 3 previous are pretty concrete.  But there needs to be an overhaul of thought in football.

I'm hopeful this season....not so much that this is a potential playoff season...but that we could at least come away with a strong season to build on..... and maybe we can hang tough with the two Goliaths of the conference.

[Etchglow]

Question for any UMHB fans.  Just checking last years roster and you had 108 freshman on the team.  How many are you expecting to still be on the team this year as sophomores?  What do you expect this upcoming freshman class to be for numbers?  Are they usually that high in number for a freshman class?  Thanks

There's a spreadsheet for that somewhere... I'll find it when I get back from the beach.