Future of Division III

[DagarmanSpartan]

Fearless prediction: won't have any significant effect next year either.

STAY TUNED!!!!

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Why are people engaging in this?  It's a fact.

College enrollment peaked in 2010 at just over 21m.  It's been gradually decreasing since then.  There are fewer children now than there were before - a full 15% drop if you go all the way back to Kindergarten.

If you add fewer 18 year olds to declining college enrollment you get massive enrollment declines.

Add to that the extra burdens currently being placed on foreign enrollments, it gets worse.

It's going to eat up a ton of small and poor colleges over the next decade.

Maybe the raw numbers won't change at rich, prestigious schools or large state institutions, but it's going to impact what it means to attend them or run them.

To say "there's no enrollment cliff" is like saying "the world is flat."  People might do it, but they should be ignored as if they don't exist.

[Gregory Sager]

Why are people engaging in this?

"People"? Looks like one guy to me.

[DagarmanSpartan]

Why are people engaging in this?  It's a fact.

College enrollment peaked in 2010 at just over 21m.  It's been gradually decreasing since then.  There are fewer children now than there were before - a full 15% drop if you go all the way back to Kindergarten.

If you add fewer 18 year olds to declining college enrollment you get massive enrollment declines.

Add to that the extra burdens currently being placed on foreign enrollments, it gets worse.

It's going to eat up a ton of small and poor colleges over the next decade.

Maybe the raw numbers won't change at rich, prestigious schools or large state institutions, but it's going to impact what it means to attend them or run them.

To say "there's no enrollment cliff" is like saying "the world is flat."  People might do it, but they should be ignored as if they don't exist.

If college enrollment has been dropping since 2010, then its NOT a "cliff."

It's a steady decline; a "slow roll downhill" and NOT a "cliff."  But whatever.  People here are saying that some "cliff' is going to hit this year or next year.............NOT for the past 15 years; your theory is completely different from what has been posted here.

A "cliff" implies that either this year, next year, or at some point very soon, we'll see a big, sudden, and steep drop off in enrollment.  That's what a "cliff" is.

Didn't happen this year...........and if the cliff is next year, as some here now suggest, then we should see some massive effect next year.  My guess is that we won't though, or at least, not for MOST schools.

Again, you might see a few small, poor schools that get significantly affected by this, but that's it.

It's not a big crisis that's going to affect all or even most of D3. 

People need to stop acting like the sky is falling.  IT AIN'T!!!

I have six alma maters, two of which are D3.  So far, NONE of them have seen a drop off in enrollment, and three of the six (including one of my D3 alma maters) have seen RECORD enrollment. 

I feel pretty safe in predicting that we won't see a big drop off in enrollment for any of those three.

[Pat Coleman]

It's not a big crisis that's going to affect all or even most of D3. 

At the very least, can you keep your posts shorter if you aren't going to listen to or acknowledge the generally agreed-upon facts?

[DagarmanSpartan]

Not sure the facts are even generally agreed upon.

Some say a big "cliff" is coming up next year.....

Others say enrollment has declined since 2010 (which is NOT a cliff).

So you see, even my opponents can't agree on the facts.

Again, any cliff, assuming just for argument's sake that it actually exists and is coming up next year, will only affect a small number of very small and financially insecure schools.

It's not a crisis likely to affect most of D3.

[WUPHF]

Also, Case Western Reserve has over 13,000 students and an R1 research enterprise.  This is not a small school by any generally agreed upon definition.  Large school is more accurate in description.

[DagarmanSpartan]

But it only has about 6,500 undergrads, which is certainly small in the grand scheme of things.

Illinois and Houston are big.

Both have several times the number of undergrads, and three or more times the number of total students.

[Pat Coleman]

But it only has about 6,500 undergrads, which is certainly small in the grand scheme of things.

Illinois and Houston are big.

Both have several times the number of undergrads, and three or more times the number of total students.

Gigantic in Division III, and this is the Future of Division III board. Top 7% of Division III schools in terms of full-time undergrad enrollment.

[WUPHF]

But it only has about 6,500 undergrads, which is certainly small in the grand scheme of things.

If you are going for the grand scheme of things, you have to look at overall enrollment.  In terms of resources and reputation, the University looks very different without a major medical school, law school and so on...

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Ok, so we've now become a thread arguing over the definition of "cliff."  Seems about right.

[Kuiper]

Ok, so we've now become a thread arguing over the definition of "cliff."  Seems about right.

The confusion is probably because there are two different demographic/societal phenomena going on, as you alluded to in your post, not about whether there is a "cliff."  The first is the decline in the percentage of high school graduates choosing to go to college, which has been going on for awhile, especially among men.  Second, which is the demographic cliff, is the decline in the number of babies born starting in 2008 and after (hence the "cliff" name), which affects the pool of people who are of college age.  It's possible that an increase in the percentage of high school grads going to college could offset the decline in the overall number of 18 year-olds, but it seems more likely that the latter will just exacerbate the former, especially with the increasing cost of college.

[Gregory Sager]

Ok, so we've now become a thread arguing over the definition of "cliff."  Seems about right.

This seems to be the relevant cliff, in this particular instance:

[Gray Fox]

Ok, so we've now become a thread arguing over the definition of "cliff."  Seems about right.

Sounds like the arguments on the NESCAC boards.

[WUPHF]

Debates over definitions for things as trivial as the word significant have long been the norm on the d3boards.