Future of Division III

[Kuiper]

Well, in the 30+ years since I graduated, Cleveland certainly has seen a population decline, but CWRU a huge application INCREASE, owing to things like a) bigger out of state recruiting; when I entered, more than 60% of undergrads were from Ohio; today, only like 18%, and b) as you said, the marketability of undergraduate degrees in fields for which CWRU has curricular strength, such as Engineering, Business, and Nursing.

Likewise, any demographic cliff that is been building in recent years hasn't affected either our applicant pool or our yield..........YET.

That said, I read somewhere that the biggest drops in higher education that might result from any demographic cliff will most likely occur at the two year college and trade school levels.  Four year colleges will be far less affected, with only some small, relatively non-prestigious colleges and for profit colleges being hit hard; most other four year colleges will only experience minimal effects.

Four year colleges and graduate schools with better than average prestige will likely feel no effects.

Can't say for sure if that prediction will come true, but I think that a result such as that is plausible.

Your expectation that small, relatively non-prestigious colleges and for profit colleges will be hit the hardest is consistent with the reports I cited, which talk about an 8.1% increase in closures as a least bad case, amounting to 5 more per year (and the demographic cliff would be only one of the factors).  I do expect plenty of other schools will be affected too, though, as evidenced by the number of schools that are consolidating majors, cutting budgets etc.  The reality, however, is that many of those additional closures and budget cutting will come from financially strapped schools in the Northeast and Midwest, which happens to be where most DIII schools are located. 

If coupled with a decline in international students, that's where the pain would spread more broadly. And if the drop in federal grants for science research become permanent, it could spread to some of those more prestigious schools, especially if they try to backfill by shifting costs from elsewhere, such as undergrad budgets. That could affect athletic support at DIII research universities like in the UAA, Johns Hopkins etc.

[Pat Coleman]

When exactly is this "cliff" supposed to hit?

The cliff started after the 2008 recession, so 2008+17 = 2025 as the peak.

Hope that helps.

[Ralph Turner]

When exactly is this "cliff" supposed to hit?

The cliff started after the 2008 recession, so 2008+17 = 2025 as the peak.

Hope that helps.

Obstetrically speaking Mr Coleman, you are absolutely correct!

[DagarmanSpartan]

So it's supposed to hit next year then?

I guess I'll have to see how many applications CWRU gets over the next two years.

If it keeps going up.......then I can only assume the effect on my alma mater will be negligible.

[Kuiper]

So it's supposed to hit next year then?

I guess I'll have to see how many applications CWRU gets over the next two years.

If it keeps going up.......then I can only assume the effect on my alma mater will be negligible.

As I said, the bigger issue for Case and similar research universities is federal grant cuts.  You may have seen this piece, which discusses a $4 million immediate cut from a DOE grant, but that's only one grant. 

[jknezek]

So it's supposed to hit next year then?

I guess I'll have to see how many applications CWRU gets over the next two years.

If it keeps going up.......then I can only assume the effect on my alma mater will be negligible.

If you read what people are writing, schools like Case are unlikely to be overly affected. The more prestigious the school, the less likely it will be to face any significant problems. The problems will be felt at tuition dependent, local draw, low reputation, low endowment institutions. None of that describes CWRU.

[DagarmanSpartan]

Last I checked, our annual research budget (according to the Carnegie Foundation anyway) is over a half a BILLION dollars.

I don't see that going down significantly.

[IC798891]

Take Case Western Reserve U. for example.  Its undergrad applications keep going up and up.

2021: 29,084
2022: 33,232
2023: 38,701
2024: 39,039

Case Western became test-optional starting with the Fall 2021 class. Generally, that has been shown to increase applications. 

[DagarmanSpartan]

Well, that could be a part of it.

Undergraduate enrollment has increased as well.

2020-21: 5,430
2021-22: 5,792
2022-23: 6,017
2023-24: 6,186
2024-25: 6,528

[Pat Coleman]

The Common App really is a big driver of more applications as well. I know my kids applied to way more places because of it.

[Ron Boerger]

Last I checked, our annual research budget (according to the Carnegie Foundation anyway) is over a half a BILLION dollars.

I don't see that going down significantly.

Depends on who's paying for it.  If it's the feds, it's likely to go down.  And according to the NSF/NCSES survey (2023), in that year Case ranked 44th nationally in terms of federal R&D spending, receiving $431.7M.

[IC798891]

Well, that could be a part of it.

Undergraduate enrollment has increased as well.

2020-21: 5,430
2021-22: 5,792
2022-23: 6,017
2023-24: 6,186
2024-25: 6,528

Case Western has drastically shifted their recruiting strategy to include far more out of state students

https://signalcleveland.org/why-case-western-reserve-cwru-enrollment-population-has-fewer-ohio-students-than-it-once-did/

[DagarmanSpartan]

That's what I said in one of my posts above.

30 years ago, 60% of the undergrad students were from Ohio.

It's now more like 18%.

[IC798891]

None of this changes the number of children born each year from 2009-2024, however. Which is what people mean when they talk about "Demographic shifts"

[Little Giant 89]

None of this changes the number of children born each year from 2009-2024, however. Which is what people mean when they talk about "Demographic shifts"

One of my college president's funniest lines: "I can do a lot of things, but I can't cause people to have had sex eighteen years ago."