Future of Division III

[IC798891]

Exactly.

There's always going to be unknowns — we don't know how immigration will look over the next 18 years. We don't know what nationwide high school graduation rates are going to look like. We don't know what the future will look like for skills developed in trade schools

All those things could make things better or worse for colleges.

But the number of people born are the number of people born.

[WashJeff68]

W&J which has about 1,100 students is touting that they have 409 commitments for Fall. There will be some shrinkage, but still an impressive number. I'm meeting with a development person next week and look forward to his take. Obviously the recent $50,000,000 bequest to provide full tuition scholarships to first year students was a big factor. My question is how they will house all these students since they will be required to live on campus.

[Ron Boerger]

I think you underestimate the enrollment at W&J - according to this story from October 2024 enrollment was 1306, up from 1162 the previous year, with a record 471 new students, 36 of whom joined your new nursing program.  Your president was quoted then as saying "{o}ur hope is to stay in the 400s every year; that's a big goal for us" so congratulations on meeting that target in this time where small private colleges are struggling to attract new students.

W&J enrolled a little over 1,400 in the mid-2010s so hopefully there is sufficient lodging for all.  Please let us know what you hear from your development person!

[Ron Boerger]

Catholic University published an update on the challenges they face and 66 active staff positions (7% of workforce) will be eliminated immediately.  However, as a result of this and other changes (reduced salary increases and retirement contributions, and new programs in AI, data analytics, and more) which will adjust the annual budget by $30M, the school anticipates a balanced budget for the current fiscal year which began May 1st. 

The school anticipates no future actions to reduce costs/headcount and is on track to meet their enrollment goals (800 new undergrads, 80 transfers, 428 masters, 119 PhD, 180 Law; total 5013 students [3289 undergrad, 1724 graduate]) for the upcoming school year. 

[WashJeff68]

W&J has actually received 609 deposits for Fall 2025

[Kuiper]

This is pretty unprecedented and a real sign of the federal policy volatility that is making planning difficult for even the wealthiest of schools.  Swarthmore, a school which had an endowment of $2.7 billion at the end of the 2024 fiscal year and is by no means hurting fiscally, has announced that it will approve a budget for the first three months of the year only as a wait-and-see tactic because of threats from an endowment tax, student visas, and research funding

https://www.chronicle.com/article/facing-federal-uncertainty-swarthmore-makes-a-novel-plan-the-3-month-budget?sra=true

With federal funding in flux, Swarthmore College is taking a novel approach to financial planning.

The liberal-arts college's Board of Managers approved a budget that only covers the first three months of the next fiscal year, which starts July 1, "to avoid overcorrecting before we have a clearer picture of the conditions shaping the college's finances," Swarthmore president Valerie Smith announced Monday in a letter to the campus.

Those conditions, the president wrote, include a hefty endowment tax proposed by Congress, threats to student visas, and the loss of federal research funding. In response to these headwinds, several other colleges have enacted hiring freezes or reduced their faculty ranks. A few Ivy League colleges, which are squarely in President Trump's sights, are considering selling bonds.

Phillip Levine, a professor of economics at Wellesley College, said he has never heard of a college adopting a wait-and-see budgeting approach like Swarthmore's. "It's a creative solution," he said. And "idiosyncratic of the times that we are currently living in."

By October 1, Swarthmore and other colleges can make more definitive budget choices. If a more expansive endowment tax becomes law, it "will require significant costs in many aspects of college operations at all affected institutions," Levine said.

As a small liberal-arts college, Swarthmore doesn't rake in loads of federal research funds. Swarthmore is aware of just two grant cancellations, The Phoenix, Swarthmore's independent student newspaper, reported last month. Systematic cuts to federal research spending, such as the attempted caps on indirect costs on grants at 15 percent, could take a comparatively small bite out of the college's budget. (Those policy changes, at the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation, have been paused as a result of lawsuits.)

Smith also noted a possible hit to enrollment caused by the government's cancellation, then apparent restoration, of legal status to thousands of international students nationwide this spring. "The federal government's threats to student visas might prevent some of our first-year international students from obtaining visas in time for the fall semester," she wrote. About 15 percent of the college's roughly 1,600 students — or around 240 people total — are international students, according to the most recent federal data.

Smith also referenced the potential loss of "several million dollars in federal financial aid." A spokesperson for the college said that the president was referring to uncertainty surrounding Pell grants and federal work-study programs. Swarthmore is among the 60 colleges that have been named by the Trump administration for alleged Title VI violations. But the administration so far has refrained from attempting to terminate financial aid to institutions it has challenged directly, such as Harvard University.

[smedindy]

I was surprised (well, maybe I shouldn't have been) that there was an arguement on the cliff from an elite research university alum, which aside from federal research grants and perhaps international students, may not be as affected as others.

I do know that the UW system had to fill some big holes in its budget for all of the schools. The state had to close a $16 billion budget shortfall and higher ed took a brunt. Western Washington lost $8 million, which is a lot for a small public. They also cut the state college grant eligibility to 60% of the median income. Also, a lot of the burder for the annual raises for higher ed employees has been moved to the institutions and not the state. UW and Wazoo also faced pretty significant cuts from them.

At CWU - we lost our highly ranked varsity rugby programs, and a lot of cuts came from student activites, publications, and clubs.

We've lost 3,000 students from 2019 to 2023, and in the 2024 academic year lost another 300. Trends are hopefully up but we built and budgeted on an 11,000+ student body and back in 2019, and now....

[DagarmanSpartan]

Hmmm........looking at my other alma maters, I'm not seeing a consistent pattern of enrollment decline.

Let's take a look:

University of Houston (JD): (I-FBS, Power 4) Fall enrollments are 47,890 for 2024, 46,676 for 2023, 46,700 for 2022, and 47,031 for 2021.......not really seeing a decline there, and seems fairly consistent, though God only knows what 2025 and beyond will hold.

Central Michigan U (MSA): (I-FBS, G6) HUGE enrollment decline since 2009 when there were almost 28K students; enrollment today is only about 14K total, but that isn't because of a population cliff; enrollments at nearly all MAC schools are in decline and have been for years.  It's simply a reflection of the overall decline in enrollment at "directional," non-flagship state universities, which is how most MAC schools should be characterized.

US Army Command and General Staff College (MMAS): (Athletics N/A) Enrollment is federally mandated and only changes because the Department of Defense wants it to change based upon needs of the military.  Military graduate school.  Any change in enrollment will not be based on population.  Bad example.

University of Illinois (MS): (I-FBS Power 2)  This past year they brought in their largest freshman class ever with more than 9,000 students, and now have a total enrollment of over 59,000; enrollment was about 56K in 2023, so no population cliff effect at this school either THUS FAR, though again, God only knows what Fall 2025 and beyond have in store.  So far, it's still growing.

Yeshiva U (LL.M): (D3) 2024 enrollment, based on what I could find on a state website for NY, was 6078 total students and 2316 undergrads; 2023 was 5348 total students, and 2022 was 4877 total students.  Appears to be growing.  This is perhaps a bit surprising given that most of the undergrads are from one particular faith background; one that is typically a very small percentage of the population.

So among my SIX alma maters, only ONE has seen a significant enrollment decline, and that one has been in decline for several years now.  As I said, it appears that "directional" state universities like Central Michigan, Western and Central Washington, etc., are the schools that are and will be most affected by this trend.

Perhaps from 2025 onward we'll see a decline for the other five, but that remains to be seen.  I'm guessing you'll see a comparatively far bigger effect at two-year colleges, trade schools, less prestigious liberal arts colleges, and "directional" state universities.

[DagarmanSpartan]

Again though, don't go by birthrates.  Birthrates have been below the replacement rate in the USA for decades, yet the US population has continued to rise owing to the fact that, compared to other developed countries, the USA continues to receive a HUGE number of immigrants annually...........immigrants who often bring kids with them that will likewise need college educations.

Whether that will mitigate the "population cliff" effect on higher ed enrollment is something that I am curious to see.

[Kuiper]

Buffalo State to End Programs, Eyes Potential Job Cuts

Buffalo State University is ending programs and weighing potential job cuts in its financial stability plan.

The school's interim president said that they are on target to balance Buffalo State's budget by 2027-28. However, they expect to see a deficit of $17.5 million by the end of this financial year.

Administrators have identified 19 programs to cut, including Bachelor of Arts programs in Sociology, Physics and Art History. Additional impacted programs include Art and Design, Applied Economics, Coaching (minor), Computer Information Systems (minor), Digital Design & Fabrication (certificate), Disaster & Emergency Management (graduate certificate), Economic Policy Analysis (minor), Environmental Science (minor), Fiber Arts (certificate), Hospitality Administration (minor), International Economics (minor), Jewelry Arts (certificate) and Sculpture (minor).

The students currently in these impacted programs make up about 1% of the student body. They will be able to finish their course study.

"Interim President Durand's thoughtful, well-planned vision for Buffalo State is translating into progress," said State University of New York Chancellor John B. King Jr. "The actions Buffalo State is taking are setting up the university for long-term financial stability and, most importantly, setting students up for maximum success. SUNY has provided more than $10 million of increased annual operating funding for Buffalo State over the last three years, and Dr. Durand and the entire Buffalo State community continue to have my full support and confidence as they take decisive action to shore up the university. A strong Buffalo State is essential to a strong SUNY."

School leaders also estimate that 63 full-time staff positions will be downsized based on academic and operational changes.

[maripp2002]

So among my SIX alma maters, only ONE has seen a significant enrollment decline, and that one has been in decline for several years now.  As I said, it appears that "directional" state universities like Central Michigan, Western and Central Washington, etc., are the schools that are and will be most affected by this trend.

Large universities are somewhat insulated from the same troubles that smaller colleges and universities have. The big state colleges and universities get all the tax dollars, and are not having to slash majors or minors to survive. Every time a small college or university cuts a program, they're naturally cutting the pool of potential students, as well. Of your six alma-maters four of them receive tax dollar funding, one has a built in faith pool to insulate it and the other has a nearly 3 billion dollar endowment and 12,000 students.

If it helps, think of "the cliff" as a wealth transfer. As smaller schools go out of business, or cut programs that aren't bringing in the kind of money that are needed to fund themselves, those students go where programs are funded by tax dollars and so aren't going need to have to justify themselves in quite the same way- for example the D1 schools that most folks are aware of. As that happens, the smaller schools relying on those students close and then even more folks go to those D1 schools. It's a vicious cycle. It's not to say it can't happen to any large/expensive/prestigious school (look at Brandeis for example) but the margins aren't the same with them, and without looking at the small/poor/less prestigious schools at the same time you're only getting half the picture at best. A loss of 10% of a small school can close it, a loss of 10% of the University of Illinois brings it to 53,000 students. It's just not apples and oranges in the same way.

People will always continue to go to college, and in the future they're going to go to the biggest and least likely to close schools. But the options become more limited every time a program or college closes. Think of it as grabbing the smallest weakest wildebeest first. Eventually only the biggest and strongest are left, but the herd is much smaller at the end.

[CNU85]

I don't recall seeing this on the boards. My apologies if I'm bringing up old news. Endowment now down to $1.9 Million.

Averett Sues former CFO

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I don't recall seeing this on the boards. My apologies if I'm bringing up old news. Endowment now down to $1.9 Million.

Averett Sues former CFO

Good gosh.  That's a troubling financial picture.  Wow.

[jknezek]

ODAC has some problem children between Averett and Guilford. There are a few others that I would look real closely at before writing a check for my kid.

[IC798891]

While this was not the point of the post:

According to that audit, Averett's endowment was worth $24.7 million. Of that, $24 million was restricted to certain purposes based on the instructions of donors, while just $637,000 did not have such restrictions.


I know most of the money in all endowments is restricted, but I've seen like 75% to 80%, not 97%. That seems like a big time failure of the philanthropy people to generate gifts for the general fund.