FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

Sorry, I definitely mis-remembered my point. Wheaton was 8-2 in 2024 with losses @UWO and home v NCC and their NPI kept them out of the playoffs. In 2025 they were 8-2 and lost @Mt Union and @NCC and got in comfortably. The difference was 2 road losses against top 5 teams vs a road loss vs a top 30 team and a home loss vs #1 team. Losing on the road to Mt Union was clearly better for the Thunder NPI than a road loss to a middle of the pack UWO team. Combined with a road loss at #1 NCC (vs a home loss in 2024) it was enough to give them a higher NPI, all things being equal. So scheduling up got them in (theoretically).

The other thing I remember CarrolFan saying is that a road win vs a sub .500 team creates more NPI value than a home win vs a top 10 NPI team.

[CarollFan]

The other thing I remember CarrolFan saying is that a road win vs a sub .500 team creates more NPI value than a home win vs a top 10 NPI team.

The link below has the final NPI's from last regular season. If you click a teams ranking you'll get a pop up with the individual game NPI's. You can sort net NPI which is the game NPI by clicking the column name to list largest to smallest.

2025 Final NPI's


Just a reminder of the formula as for some reason I forget how it works after the season.

To calculate game NPI.
40 points for a win.
60% of SOS which is opponents NPI or ONPI.
QWB (bonus). If ONPI greater then 54 then multiply ((ONPI - 54) * .25).

You add these 3 components up and for a road win multiply the sum by 1.1 and for a home win multiply by .9. So for a road win you increase the game NPI by 10% of the sum of the 3 components and for a home win you decrease the game NPI by 10% of the sum of the 3 components.

So how could a game NPI for a win be higher on the road vs. a .500 team than at home vs. a top 10 team.

Well a win is worth 40 whoever you play and on a road win you are going get an additional 4 points just on the win and on a home win you get 4 points reduced. So a road win is really worth 44 and a home win is worth 36. That's a 8 point swing.

Now when you beat the good team at home remember you're only using 60% of their SOS plus you end up reducing it by 10%. The .500 team on the road you goose up 10%.