FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[D3Rookie]

I don't know if anyone cares about that bowl game that the CCIW plays in, but here's a thought for Wheaton fans to consider.  The Missouri team that we usually send to that game has typically been blown out. But does anyone think the Wheaton kids would have a better experience at that level, compared to taking another loss in the first or second round of the playoffs?  If I were a senior playing my last college game, I would like to remember it as a win, but playoffs are designed so that only one team gets that memory.

I got the vibe that the Thunder was fired up last week to beat WashU and that settling for a bowl game would be a disappointment. Either way, I'll be rooting for CCIW in the Isthmus Bowl. It definitely could be a great final game for the Thunder but I'm not counting the Bears out if they get the nod. WashU may not be deep but they have some strong players --- esp. at receiver and in spots on the defensive front. Admittedly, the passing game has been inconsistent (esp as they keep switching QBs), and defending against the deep ball has been an issue so they'll need to make some adjustments to get a win against a strong team.

[Gregory Sager]

NPU's current NPI is 57.157.
So using that NPI a win is 40+(.6x57.157)+((57.157-54)x.25)= 75.08 might be a little more because on the road. This is win%+sos+gwb.

That will get included in all the other game NPI's used for the overall calculation.

If NPU's NPI drops to 50 let's say, now it's 40+(.6x50)=70. Lose the gwb because NPU's NPI now less then 54.

You have no idea how much it warms my heart to see this kind of post popping up on the boards!

[D3Rookie]

Hard to imagine that anyone at Wheaton rather go to the bowl game, but it is possible.

Also, I am not sure anything becomes typical after only three occurrences, but that Missouri team had the best effort for a CCIW team in one of three burger bowl games played, losing by one touchdown in 2022. 

It was an Illinois team that was scoreless at the half last season and only scored after the game was mostly over.

I think it has been great having the Washington University Bears play football in the CCIW.  I hope they will still schedule us if they have non-conference games in the future.  I don't know why the CCIW chose to end their participation. 

I made the Missouri reference because I find it ironic that the conference name does not exactly match the geography.  I guess I like things to be in order, like the Big Ten Conference should change their name if they have around 20 teams!

I'd like to see an SNL skit on conference names ... especially what you do with the ACC?

[WUPHF]

I made the Missouri reference because I find it ironic that the conference name does not exactly match the geography.  I guess I like things to be in order, like the Big Ten Conference should change their name if they have around 20 teams!

I loosely follow the St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference which after this season will have just two programs in the greater St. Louis area.

Years ago, I made a post suggesting that the SLIAC change their name to the Western Rivers conference to reflect the fact that every school at the time was located on one of the Western Rivers.  That was a great name.

I was this close to suggesting American Rivers as well, but that did not make my post so I can't claim to have inspired the IIAC to change their name.

I'll stop now.

[ziggy]

NPU's current NPI is 57.157.
So using that NPI a win is 40+(.6x57.157)+((57.157-54)x.25)= 75.08 might be a little more because on the road. This is win%+sos+gwb.

That will get included in all the other game NPI's used for the overall calculation.

If NPU's NPI drops to 50 let's say, now it's 40+(.6x50)=70. Lose the gwb because NPU's NPI now less then 54.

You have no idea how much it warms my heart to see this kind of post popping up on the boards!

Just to be clear, The D3 Datacast perspective has always only been to educate about, not advocate for, NPI. Seeing the "back of the napkin" type NPI calculations showing up here is good feedback that our education efforts have been somewhat effective with people willing to learn.

[NCC2010]

I would say you should listen to the D3football.com Around the Nation podcast.

Pat, Frank did mention you.

I can't do anything about that. They've definitely made it personal and not sure why.

I listen to both podcasts. I like Logan's segment you added this year.
Frank is pointing out the results of using NPI and I'm sure a lot of us agree with what he is pointing out. At the same time if you're going to criticize the use of NPI you might as well understand how it works. At the end of the day the old system used wins, so does NPI. The old system used SOS, so does NPI. The subjectivity has been taking out and that caused some issues in the past.
I think a good question to ask is why did the NCAA choose the weights they did for wins and SOS? Especially since they are different than what they are using in other sports where SOS has a greater weight.

I've largely stopped listening to Frank's show.  While I appreciate his efforts to shine a spotlight on D3 football and to humanize the players/coaches, his "angry Frank" schtick is a turn-off. Hopefully, he'll melow-out.

If I had more time, I'd love to find the thread on X from late Aug. or early Sept. where he blasted Logan's predictions on the teams most likely to secure a top 8 playoff slot.  I can't recall the list but (at the time) I thought the top 5 teams Logan listed were solid picks and I didn't understand Frank's negative reaction.  Once the season wraps up, I'll probably revisit that to see if Frank's comments make more sense with the benefit of hindsight.
 

If i recall, Frank was very upset that Logan was mixing his model's win probabilities with NPI. In particular, he said it was dumb to project Springfield in the top 8 over a team like UWO who would obviously be rated higher in NPI if they went undefeated, however they had much less of a chance of going undefeated.  Frank continued on to throw a tantrum over this through the series of tweets that NPI should not be mixed with Logan's model because it would give teams like Springfield a false sense of security or people would misunderstand NPI.

well, Springfield very much looks like a great shot at a top 8 seed and UWO obviously lost so no longer has that chance.  I dont think anyone was confusing Logan's model predictions and how they are different than NPI but Frank...

Score this one for Logan imo.

[NCC2010]

I think you Wheaton fans want to root for NPU this weekend.
Right now you have 5 wins included in your calculations.
WashU, Carroll, IWU, Augie and Carthage. After the NPU game, (I assume a Wheaton win), NPU should be added to your calculations and I believe Carthage, Elmhurst and Millikin will not be included.
If Carthage somehow upsets NPU, look out below....

As far as dropping wins from the calculation:

It does look like for NCC who has 7 wins they are currently using 5 in the calculation. I forgot the guys from Datacast had an adjusted W and adjusted L column.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/football/

The other main thing Wheaton and WashU fans should be rooting for is all current Pool A leaders to keep those spots secured and for as many Pool C teams to lose so there are far less 2 loss teams to be chosen from. Below are all results those fans should be rooting for:

Whitewater to beat River Falls & Lacrosse
Lacrosse or Platteville to beat Stout
Oshkosh to lose to River Falls & Stout
This would leave all of the above WIAC teams with 3 DIII losses
Randolph Macon to beat Washington & Lee 
Centre to beat Berry 
Trinity TX to lose 1 of their 3 remaining games against Hendrix, Soutwestern, or Millsaps
Endicott to beat Husson
Johns Hopkins to beat Muhlenberg
Hardin Simmons to beat UMHB
Brockport to lose to both Cortland and Utica
Susquehanna to beat Moravian
Hobart to beat Rochester
UMass Dartmouth to beat WestConn
Bethel to lose to St Johns and Concordia
Lake Forest to beat Monmouth
Hope to beat Albion
Wabash to lose to both DePauw and Denison
Springfield & Salisbury to go undefeated
Linfield to lose to both Whitworth & Pac Lutheran
Marietta to beat John Carroll
And the 5 way tie of PAC teams (CM, GC, W&J, CWRU, WM) for as many of them to end with 3 losses as possible

I'm sure someone can do a deeper dive but the above would keep most of the Pool A teams in Pool A while hurting the resumes for Pool C teams

[D3fanboy]

I would say you should listen to the D3football.com Around the Nation podcast.

Pat, Frank did mention you.

I can't do anything about that. They've definitely made it personal and not sure why.

I listen to both podcasts. I like Logan's segment you added this year.
Frank is pointing out the results of using NPI and I'm sure a lot of us agree with what he is pointing out. At the same time if you're going to criticize the use of NPI you might as well understand how it works. At the end of the day the old system used wins, so does NPI. The old system used SOS, so does NPI. The subjectivity has been taking out and that caused some issues in the past.
I think a good question to ask is why did the NCAA choose the weights they did for wins and SOS? Especially since they are different than what they are using in other sports where SOS has a greater weight.

I've largely stopped listening to Frank's show.  While I appreciate his efforts to shine a spotlight on D3 football and to humanize the players/coaches, his "angry Frank" schtick is a turn-off. Hopefully, he'll melow-out.

If I had more time, I'd love to find the thread on X from late Aug. or early Sept. where he blasted Logan's predictions on the teams most likely to secure a top 8 playoff slot.  I can't recall the list but (at the time) I thought the top 5 teams Logan listed were solid picks and I didn't understand Frank's negative reaction.  Once the season wraps up, I'll probably revisit that to see if Frank's comments make more sense with the benefit of hindsight.
 

If i recall, Frank was very upset that Logan was mixing his model's win probabilities with NPI. In particular, he said it was dumb to project Springfield in the top 8 over a team like UWO who would obviously be rated higher in NPI if they went undefeated, however they had much less of a chance of going undefeated.  Frank continued on to throw a tantrum over this through the series of tweets that NPI should not be mixed with Logan's model because it would give teams like Springfield a false sense of security or people would misunderstand NPI.

well, Springfield very much looks like a great shot at a top 8 seed and UWO obviously lost so no longer has that chance.  I dont think anyone was confusing Logan's model predictions and how they are different than NPI but Frank...

Score this one for Logan imo.

Frank throwing a temper tantrum?  I can't believe it

[gryfalia]

We're familiar with area

https://gopios.com/sports/football/roster/mikey-coleman/15766

Thank you Normal Community.
Mikey_TD

Holy cow, I missed my ONE CHANCE to comment on my local area.  Yes, I live in Normal..;-)

[CarollFan]

NPU's current NPI is 57.157.
So using that NPI a win is 40+(.6x57.157)+((57.157-54)x.25)= 75.08 might be a little more because on the road. This is win%+sos+gwb.

That will get included in all the other game NPI's used for the overall calculation.

If NPU's NPI drops to 50 let's say, now it's 40+(.6x50)=70. Lose the gwb because NPU's NPI now less then 54.

You have no idea how much it warms my heart to see this kind of post popping up on the boards!

Ziggy, How does H/A calculation get added into this equation? Also, I assume this is the formula for each game NPI and then all the game NPI's are averaged to get a team's final NPI?

Updated per Ziggy and KnightSlappy comments.

5 wins are being used.
Wheaton's 2 losses are to NCC and UWO.
Wheaton's 5 best wins included are: WashU, Carroll, IWU, Augie, Carthage.
NPI's as of 10/26.     
NCC – 77.01       
UWO – 70.293       
WashU – 59.20       
Carroll – 53.291       
Augie – 47.782       
IWU – 46.231       
Carthage – 35.645   

Calculating game NPI's for Wheaton using current NPI's.
Win% (x .4) + SOS (x.6) + QWB (For QWB opponents NPI has to be over 54)
A win at home NPI is multiplied by .9.
A loss at home NPI is multiplied by 1.1.
A win on the road NPI is multiplied by 1.1.
A loss on the road NPI is multiplied by .9.

Losses
Home - NCC – 0 + (77.01 x .6) + 0 = 46.206 x 1.1 = 50.8266
Away - UWO – 0 + (70.293 x .6) + 0 = 42.1758 x .9 = 37.95822

Wins
Away- WashU – 40 + (59.2 x .6) + ((59.2-54) x .25) = 40 + 35.52 + 1.3 = 76.82 x 1.1 = 84.502
Away- Carroll – 40 + (53.291 x .6) = 40 + 31.9746 = 71.9746 x 1.1 = 79.17206
Away- Carthage – 40 + (35.645 x .6) = 40 + 21.387 = 61.387 x 1 (see KnightSlappy comments)
Home - Augie – 40 + (47.782 x .6) = 40 + 28.6692 = 68.6692 x .9 = 61.80228
Home - IWU – 40 + (46.231 x .6) = 40 +27.7386 = 67.7386 x .9 = 60.96474

Total NPI for all 7 games = 50.8266 + 37.95822 + 84.502 + 79.17206 + 61.387 + 61.80228 + 60.96474 = 436.6129
Overall NPI = 436.6129/7 = 62.37

Usee and I believe the Datacast crew have mentioned you probably need a 64 to get to the playoffs.  So looking now at how this is calculated you can see you have dependencies on these other teams NPI's. Also another game may slide in here like NPU.  How does Wheaton get to 64?

[USee]

That's the exact number I got. When I modeled out potential wins for the next 3 games I got a final NPI for Wheaton of 64.19. Of course all the current teams NPI's will change each week so that's inexact at best. I don't understand how a home loss gets a 1.1 multiplier because that helps the losing team's NPI but I think that's how it's supposed to work.

[ziggy]

This is what I did Usee. Not sure if correct but came close to Wheaton's NPI. One discrepancy I found with the D3 Datacast data is I have Wheaton with 5.1 adjusted wins because of 3 road wins each worth 1.1 and 2 home wins worth .9. So 3.3 + 1.8 = 5.1.  So when I calculated all the games NPI's, I divided by 7.1 not 7. Not sure if what I'm doing is right, complete novice but here it goes.

5 wins are being used.
Wheaton's 2 losses are to NCC and UWO.
Wheaton's 5 best wins included are: WashU, Carroll, IWU, Augie, Carthage.
NPI's as of 10/26.     
NCC – 77.01       
UWO – 70.293       
WashU – 59.20       
Carroll – 53.291       
Augie – 47.782       
IWU – 46.231       
Carthage – 35.645   

Calculating game NPI's for Wheaton using current NPI's.
Win% (x .4) + SOS (x.6) + QWB (For QWB opponents NPI has to be over 54)
A win at home NPI is multiplied by .9.
A loss at home NPI is multiplied by 1.1.
A win on the road NPI is multiplied by 1.1.
A loss on the road NPI is multiplied by .9.

Losses
Home - NCC – 0 + (77.01 x .6) + 0 = 46.206 x 1.1 = 50.8266
Away - UWO – 0 + (70.293 x .6) + 0 = 42.1758 x .9 = 37.95822

Wins
Away- WashU – 40 + (59.2 x .6) + ((59.2-54) x .25) = 40 + 35.52 + 1.3 = 76.82 x 1.1 = 84.502
Away- Carroll – 40 + (53.291 x .6) = 40 + 31.9746 = 71.9746 x 1.1 = 79.17206
Away- Carthage – 40 + (35.645 x .6) = 40 + 21.387 = 61.387 x 1.1 = 67.5257
Home - Augie – 40 + (47.782 x .6) = 40 + 28.6692 = 68.6692 x .9 = 61.80228
Home - IWU – 40 + (46.231 x .6) = 40 +27.7386 = 67.7386 x .9 = 60.96474

Total NPI for all 7 games = 50.8266 + 37.95822 + 84.502 + 79.17206 + 67.5257 + 61.80228 + 60.96474 = 442.7516
Overall NPI = 442.7516/7.1 = 62.359

The one minor missing piece to the puzzle here is that since the IWU win would lower their NPI it only has to count up to the minimum wins dial of 5. The top four games comes out to 4.2 adjusted games so the IWU win only has to be accounted for as 0.8 game rather than the full 0.9.

[CarollFan]

Thanks Ziggy.

[KnightSlappy]

It's actually the Carthage game that gets dropped to 1.0 adjusted wins rather than 1.1 since the Game NPI there is 61.387 which is below Wheaton's 62.373 season NPI.

[ziggy]

It's actually the Carthage game that gets dropped to 1.0 adjusted wins rather than 1.1 since the Game NPI there is 61.387 which is below Wheaton's 62.373 season NPI.

And that's what I get by going straight to the bottom instead of paying attention to the details within