FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Augie6]

Watched entire IWU-Augie game. Great one to watch, literally came down to last drive.

Beautiful day to play.

I think IWU ability to run the ball and stop the run was the difference in the game. Titans looked more physically developed in both lines.

What happened to original Augie QB that started last year?  Bhardwaj?

Hey John - Pretty sure he has been benched.  The Crawley kid played against Carroll, and then they split time last week vs NCC.  If you have given up on the season, not really sure why you bring in a senior to replace a 5th year senior, I would think you would see what you have that could help you next year. 

Unfortunately, the results this season are what I thought was very likely to happen, coming off of last year's 8-3 record.  Augie had at least 10 5th years seniors playing last year, which was a big part of why they experienced the success they did.  Now we are back to what has become the norm at Augie under the last two coaching staffs, covering 14 seasons.  Assuming we beat Carthage and lose to Wash U (although who knows if we beat Carthage), this will be another losing season for Augie.  We have had 2 winning seasons at Augie during the last 14 seasons and, based on the players they currently have on the roster and this staff's inability to recruit the players necessary to build a strong program, I'm not expecting things to improve any time soon.

[CarollFan]

Just for awareness for anyone diving into these NPI calculations. The NCAA site gives you the win value for beating each team. They basically are showing you the outcome of the math. You just need to apply the appropriate home or away multiplier to determine a game NPI.

https://stats.ncaa.org/season_divisions/18386/selection_rankings/current_rankings

For example.
If someone beat NCC. NCC has a NPI of 77.375
The QWB is ((77.375 - 54) x .25) = 5.8437 shown in the QWB column
The loss value is the SOS (77.375 x .6) = 46.425 shown in the loss value
The win value is 40 + SOS + QWB = 40 + 46.425 + 5.8437 = 92.268 shown in the win value

Take it easy NCC fans..just an example. We do use the loss value...

Speaking of NCC. I was trying to calculate their NPI and wasn't getting there. I noticed then in the NCAA stats if you click your ranking, like in NCC's case the number 3, all the games they are using in the calculation show up in a pop up.  In NCC's case even though the adjusted wins are 5 they are actually using 6 games.  Aurora, Wheaton, WashU, NPU, Carroll and Augie. Using the following adjusted wins for each one Aurora (1.1), Wheaton (1.1), WashU (.9), NPU (.9), Carroll (.9) and Augie (.1).  If you add up the adjusted wins it equals 5. I'm assuming they added Augie at .1 to get to 5.

[USee]

It looks like Brockport's result against Maine Maritime is going to count as the NCAA continues to count it and the D3datacast guys amended their results. That has the effect of putting them in Pool C position ahead of Wheaton, who is solidly on the bubble at this point. If Brockport's result isn't counted, Wheaton is in much better position for a Pool C bid.

[CarollFan]

It looks like Brockport's result against Maine Maritime is going to count as the NCAA continues to count it and the D3datacast guys amended their results. That has the effect of putting them in Pool C position ahead of Wheaton, who is solidly on the bubble at this point. If Brockport's result isn't counted, Wheaton is in much better position for a Pool C bid.

Maybe some inquiries need to be made?

[CarollFan]

According to D3 Datacast there are currently 5 pool A bids not in the top 40 NPI. Last column.
Anna Maria last entry to playoffs at a NPI rank of 138.


https://d3datacast.com/npi/football/

[Patrick Coleman]

It looks like Brockport's result against Maine Maritime is going to count as the NCAA continues to count it and the D3datacast guys amended their results. That has the effect of putting them in Pool C position ahead of Wheaton, who is solidly on the bubble at this point. If Brockport's result isn't counted, Wheaton is in much better position for a Pool C bid.

Brockport played Hartwick. Hartwick played Maine Maritime.

[Patrick Coleman]

It looks like Brockport's result against Maine Maritime is going to count as the NCAA continues to count it and the D3datacast guys amended their results. That has the effect of putting them in Pool C position ahead of Wheaton, who is solidly on the bubble at this point. If Brockport's result isn't counted, Wheaton is in much better position for a Pool C bid.

Maybe some inquiries need to be made?

We have been making them. I don't know that this is final yet.

[CarollFan]

According to D3 Datacast there are currently 5 pool A bids not in the top 40 NPI. Last column.
Anna Maria last entry to playoffs at a NPI rank of 138.


https://d3datacast.com/npi/football/

Wheaton fans, if you look at last column of playoff seeds your chasing seed #35. You have 2 teams in front of you, Wabash and Monmouth. Trinity(Conn) is a NESCAC team and they don't participate in the playoffs.

Some nonconference games that may be important to Wheaton.

11/9:
Monmouth (7-1) @ Lake Forest (8-0) (Playing for MWC championship)
Wabash @ Wittenberg (Wabash will be favored)

11/16:
Wabash (7-1) @ DePauw (8-0) (Playing for NCAC championship most likely)
Monmouth @ Knox (Monmouth will be favored)

A couple teams behind you to watch, Texas Lutheran and UW-La Crosse.

[USee]

Also Oshkosh plays UWO, Linfield plays undefeated Whitworth, Carnegie Mellon play Case Western, Marietta plays Mt Union and john Carroll, Bethel plays St Johns again, and Brockport plays the NCAA. In addition there are a bunch of games Pool A teams could lose that bump them into C. Lots of variables.

[CarollFan]

I compared NPI's between 10/26 and 11/2 and Carthage had the biggest increase in the nation from 35.645 to 42.424 for a +6.779.  I had Rochester from Liberty League with the biggest decrease from 63.37 to 58.228 for a -5.142.
I have about 85% of changes between -3 and +3.

[CuriousCCIWfan]

Also Oshkosh plays UWO, Linfield plays undefeated Whitworth, Carnegie Mellon play Case Western, Marietta plays Mt Union and john Carroll, Bethel plays St Johns again, and Brockport plays the NCAA. In addition there are a bunch of games Pool A teams could lose that bump them into C. Lots of variables.

So as a Wheaton fan, what do you honestly think the chances are of them getting in? Above 70% or below?

[Cardinal773]

CCIW Players of the Week Against (week 7 of 9):

Team        Total Off. Def. S.T.
Carthage    4        2      2      0
Millikin        4        1      1      2
Carroll          3        1      2      0
N. Park        3        0      1      2
Augustana  2        1      0      1
IWU              2        1      1      0
Wash. U.      2        0      0      2
Elmhurst    1        1      0      0
Wheaton    1        1      0      0
N. Central  0        0      0      0

[CarollFan]

Games this week.
Spreads courtesy of Logan Hansen. https://hansenratings.github.io/

Elmhurst @ NCC -75.1
Wheaton -46 @ Millikin
WashU -22.3 @ NPU
Carthage @ Augie -14.5
IWU @ Carroll -4.1


Pool C Teams Favored
Allegheny @ Carnegie Mellon -55.4
Simpson @ Coe    -30.2
Gettysburg @ Ursinus -29.7
Pacific Lutheran @ Linfield -27
Rhodes @ Centre -20.9
Bethel -19.5 @ Concordia-Moorhead
Case Western Reserve @ Grove City -13.5
UW-Stout @ UWO -8.9   
UMHB -.1 @ Hardin Simmons (May get adjusted. Also for NCC fans HS currently #4 NPI)

Pool C Teams Underdog
Cortland -19.8 @ Brockport
Marietta @ Mount Union -7.5
Monmouth @ Lake Forest -.4

Teams just outside of Pool C (UWL, Wabash, Texas Lutheran, Trinity (Texas))
UWW @ UWL -4.3
Wabash -7.5 @ Wittenberg
Texas Lutheran -22.9 @ Centenary La.
Southwestern @ Trinity (Texas) -20.2

[NCC2010]

Games this week.
Spreads courtesy of Logan Hansen. https://hansenratings.github.io/

Elmhurst @ NCC -75.1
Wheaton -46 @ Millikin
WashU -22.3 @ NPU
Carthage @ Augie -14.5
IWU @ Carroll -4.1


Pool C Teams Favored
Allegheny @ Carnegie Mellon -55.4
Simpson @ Coe    -30.2
Gettysburg @ Ursinus -29.7
Pacific Lutheran @ Linfield -27
Rhodes @ Centre -20.9
Bethel -19.5 @ Concordia-Moorhead
Case Western Reserve @ Grove City -13.5
UW-Stout @ UWO -8.9   
UMHB -.1 @ Hardin Simmons

Pool C Teams Underdog
Cortland -19.8 @ Brockport
Marietta @ Mount Union -7.5
Monmouth @ Lake Forest -.4

Would add in UWW @ UWL -4.3.  UWL likely in as a Pool C bid if they win out. The UMHB/HSU game is also @ HSU, Logan has that one listed @ UMHB incorrectly so I assume HSU will be favored once home field is factored in.

[USee]

Also Oshkosh plays UWO, Linfield plays undefeated Whitworth, Carnegie Mellon play Case Western, Marietta plays Mt Union and john Carroll, Bethel plays St Johns again, and Brockport plays the NCAA. In addition there are a bunch of games Pool A teams could lose that bump them into C. Lots of variables.

So as a Wheaton fan, what do you honestly think the chances are of them getting in? Above 70% or below?

Logan Hansen will have his season simulation with probabilities out today. Last week it was 74.8% for the Thunder. This is a new system so I don't have a strong handle on it yet, still working through it. If the Thunder can get their NPI to 64.2+ that would be huge. It won't happen this week as Wheaton plays @Millikin and that result is likely to be dropped from their calculation. The Brockport issue could be huge.....

One thing seems certain, NCC is likely going to get screwed again on their seeding and have to play on the road late in the playoffs.