FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[deepthroat]

What happened with North Park in 1968? Why the outlier of a record?

[USee]

Checking in on the top Pool C teams for NPI purposes:

UW Oshkosh: 6-1 LOST vs UW Stout
Marietta: 8-0 LOST @UMU, Next up @John Carroll
UMHB: 4-1 LOST @HSU, Next up vs Howard Payne
Carnegie Mellon: 7-1 WON over Allegheny, Next up Case Western
Bethel: 7-1 WON vs Conc Morehead, next up St Johns in MIAA C'ship
Ursinius: 7-1 WON vs Gettysburg, next up @Dickinson
Coe: 8-1 WON vs Simpson, next up FINISHED
Linfield: 7-1 WON vs Pacific Luth, next up @Whitworth
Brockport: 7-1: LOST to Cortland, Next up
Centre: 6-2 WON vs Rhodes, next up vs Sewanee
Grove City: 7-1 WON vs Case Western, next up Carnegie Mellon
Monmouth: 7-1, LOST to Lake Forest, next up
Wabash 7-1, WON over Witt, next up DePauw
Wheaton 6-2, WON @Millikin, next up North Park
Texas Lutheran: 7-1 WON @Centenary, next up vs Southwestern
UW Lacrosse: WON vs UWW, next up v UW Stevens Pt
Trinity Texas: 6-2 WON vs Southwestern, next up @Milsaps

5 teams ahead of Wheaton on the NPI Pool C rankings lost today. The Oshkosh loss is bad for the Thunder as it will lower their NPI. Lake Forest over Monmouth is big as it knocks Monmouth out of Pool C and locks LF into the Pool A. A few big bid stealer type games next week as well. It will be close.....

[CarollFan]

It will be interesting to see the NPI's.
In CCIW no team looks like they will end up with 6 wins. 4 teams could end up 5-5.
6-4 is better from a NPI standpoint not only because less losses but you can get rid of worst win.

[D3Rookie]

I wanted to watch the North Park v. WashU game but it appears to be password protected (following the link from the NP site). Does NP not publicly share its replays?

[Patrick Coleman]

I wanted to watch the North Park v. WashU game but it appears to be password protected (following the link from the NP site). Does NP not publicly share its replays?

They do not.

[CuriousCCIWfan]

It will be interesting to see the NPI's.
In CCIW no team looks like they will end up with 6 wins. 4 teams could end up 5-5.
6-4 is better from a NPI standpoint not only because less losses but you can get rid of worst win.

so you make it sound like Wheaton is a long shot to get in?

[CarollFan]

It will be interesting to see the NPI's.
In CCIW no team looks like they will end up with 6 wins. 4 teams could end up 5-5.
6-4 is better from a NPI standpoint not only because less losses but you can get rid of worst win.

so you make it sound like Wheaton is a long shot to get in?

No I'm saying the NPI may not increase or change much. Like Usee pointed out other teams are dropping out of pool C and others moving in. It would be better from NPI standpoint for both Wheaton and NCC if 4rth place team had 6 wins or 7 wins. The teams included in Wheatons NPI last week were NCC, UWO, WashU, Carroll, IWU, Augie, Carthage and Elmhurst. 4 won and 4 lost this week.

What will help Wheaton's NPI number the last week is they can add NPU to their calculation and NPU even with a loss will have a better NPI then Carthage or Elmhurst, so NPU game can replace one of those games. Also depending how low Carthage or Elmhurst NPI go, those games could get dropped from calculation.

Nothing to worry about remember Logan gave Wheaton a 85% chance.
I'll add though I play poker and how many times I called an all in way ahead to get burned on the river....

[NCC2010]

Wheaton/WashU fans want to root for Platteville to win against Stout next week.

Platteville win gives them the WIAC Pool A bid and should eliminate Stout from Pool C contention. If Stout wins, they get the Pool A bid based on the tiebreakers. A Stout win would leave Platteville (8-2) and then wins by Lacrosse (6-2) and Oshkosh (7-2) would have all 3 of those as strong Pool C resumes in addition to Stout already being in via Pool A.

Should be rooting for River Falls to beat Oshkosh regardless as well.

[NCC2010]

NPI just updated after yesterday's games:

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/40152?utf8=✓&commit=Submit

NCC - 4
Wheaton - 39
WashU - 43

NCC might get jumped next week by Cortland and fall out of the top 4...not ideal.

[CarollFan]

NPI just updated after yesterday's games:

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/40152?utf8=✓&commit=Submit

NCC - 4
Wheaton - 39
WashU - 43

NCC might get jumped next week by Cortland and fall out of the top 4...not ideal.

Yes D3 Datacast updated so can see playoff seedings.  Wheaton still out.  Be interesting to see Logan's predictions this week.

https://d3datacast.com/npi/football/

Wheaton's NPI got slightly worse from 63.476 to 63.110.

[CarollFan]

This is what I'm getting out of all of this. You want as many teams as possible over .500 in your conference (and non-conference team you are playing).  This year we are going to have 7 teams at .500 or lower in the CCIW.
             
That's holding NCC and Wheaton down a little in their NPI's. You're welcome.

[NCC2010]

This is what I'm getting out of all of this. You want as many teams as possible over .500 in your conference (and non-conference team you are playing).  This year we are going to have 7 teams at .500 or lower in the CCIW.
             
That's holding NCC and Wheaton down a little in their NPI's. Your welcome.

NPI will change next week obviously but based on what I am calculating (could definitely be wrong) Cortland will indeed jump NCC next week with a win against Ithaca...need Bethel to beat St John's it seems for NCC to have a top 4 seed and thus homefield in the quarterfinals.

If NCC is to make it to their 5th straight Stagg, it seems likely they will have hosted only one (1) semifinal game in those 5 seasons.

[CarollFan]

Wheaton/WashU fans want to root for Platteville to win against Stout next week.

Platteville win gives them the WIAC Pool A bid and should eliminate Stout from Pool C contention. If Stout wins, they get the Pool A bid based on the tiebreakers. A Stout win would leave Platteville (8-2) and then wins by Lacrosse (6-2) and Oshkosh (7-2) would have all 3 of those as strong Pool C resumes in addition to Stout already being in via Pool A.

Should be rooting for River Falls to beat Oshkosh regardless as well.

Wheaton has Trinity (Texas) and UMHB ahead of them and they will both be favored next week to win their games.
Wabash playing DePauw for NCAC title. Does a Wabash loss knock them out of pool C?

[CarollFan]

What will effect Wheaton's NPI next week?

NPU @ Wheaton (Wheaton has to win or is out. NPU current Win Value is 70.883 and they will be included in Wheaton NPI calculation)

Augie @ WashU (WashU will be favored. Both teams used in calculation)

Carthage @ Carroll (Carroll will be favored but could go either way. If Carroll wins, Carthage might be dropped from calculation)

NCC @ IWU (NCC will win. Both teams used in calculation)

Millikin@ Elmhurst (Elmhurst will be favored.)

UWO @ UWRF (Could be interesting...)

Wheaton's current NPI calculation:
Rank   Team   Outcomes   Npi        Win value   Loss value   Qwb   Net npi        Adj wins  Adj Losses
4            NCC               HL      77.109   92.043      46.266      5.777     50.892        0.0              1.1
29            UWO         AL       65.791    82.422    39.474      2.948         35.527       0.0             0.9
43          WashU         AW      61.618   78.875   36.971      1.905      86.763        1.1             0.0
107          IWU              HW     51.938     71.163     31.163       0.0        64.047     0.9             0.0
122         Carroll       AW      49.904   69.943   29.943      0.0             76.937         1.1             0.0
138          Augie         HW      47.345   68.407   28.407      0.0             61.567         0.9             0.0
177         Elmhurst       HW      41.464   64.879   24.879      0.0           58.391        0.9             0.0
182         Carthage       AW      40.544   64.327   24.327      0.0           70.759         1.1          0.0

[CarollFan]

I know there are some IWU fans out there.  I attended the game yesterday and here is my take.

Looked like IWU's game plan offensively was running, short passes, control the clock and it worked.  They held the ball for 40:49 minutes and had 71 offensive plays.  Carroll had the ball for 19:11 minutes and had 36 offensive plays.

Carroll's D has suffered a couple big injuries this year in losing their 2 starting LB's. The players replacing them have done a decent job but that productivity is hard to replace.

IWU's defense did a good job against Carroll's run game holding them to 60 yards on 22 carries.

Carroll's top rusher was their TE #45 Reed Breckheimer who had a 22 yd TD run. Reed also had a 68 yard TD reception. Carroll had a long kick-off return by RB #30 Nick Legnaioli to setup a 16 yd TD run by their QB #2 Charlie King late in the first half. They missed on a long pass to the IWU 12 yard line in the 4rth Q that looked like it might be caught and would have been a big play for them.

I thought Carroll's offensive game plan was a little too conservative running 22 times and throwing 14 times, especially with IWU playing the run well.  You're 4-4 going in, let it rip.  In the end the D couldn't stop a late game winning drive by IWU who scored the game winner with 20 seconds left in the game.  The D being out there for 40 minutes didn't help...