FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[CarollFan]

I just checked and looks like NCAA published the NPI's.
If you click the ranking you can see the games being used in the calculation and check week to week.

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/46111


Right now the best win from a NPI standpoint for NCC is the away WashU win and for Wheaton it's the away Augie win.

[NCC2010]

How might the UWO loss impact NC's playoff seeding?  We lucked out not having to travel last year, but a lot of that was thanks to Springfield and Susquehanna knocking out the top seeds.

Logan Hansen has created a tool where you can see how Oshkosh's final record will effect NCC's NPI. 

https://loghan.shinyapps.io/hansen-ratings-diii-football-season-simulation-distributions/

Based on going through the teams with a shot at being undefeated, his model has the following possible final NPI final calculations:

1. UWL 9-0,  NPI average = 82.645
2. Johns Hopkins 10-0, NPI avg = 81.871
3. Mount Union 10-0, NPI avg = 78.95
4. Christopher Newport 10-0, NPI avg = 77.61
5. Wartburg 10-0, NPI avg = 77.601
6. NCC 10-0, NPI avg = 77.218


All other undefeated teams would slot in below NCC in average NPI based on what I have looked at.  The above would basically be worst case scenario, as NCC would be on the road at Alliance in the quarter finals. 

NCC fans should be rooting for UWL to lose at least one game and for Christopher Newport to lose to Salisbury.  I don't see John Hopkins & Mount losing with what's left on their schedules and Wartburg could lose to Central, but a 10-0 Central would slide right in where Wartburg is listed above. 

If Oshkosh goes undefeated the rest of the way, NCC avg NPI would raise to 78.4.  If Oshkosh finishes with 4 losses, NCC NPI drops all the way down to 76.88 on average.  5 losses = 76.124, which is still very possible since Oshkosh has LaCrosse, Whitewater, and Platteville all still on its schedule.

[CarollFan]

Logan has UWL losing this week to UWP.

https://hansenratings.github.io/2025%20Week%207.html

[Gregory Sager]

Logan sez:

Augustana 28, Carroll 24	(AC 60%, CU 40%)
Wheaton 50, Carthage 7	(WC 100%, CC 0%)
Washington MO 52, Elmhurst 5	(WUSTL 100%, EU 0%)
Illinois Wesleyan 37, Millikin 15	(IWU 93%, MU 7%)
North Central 54, North Park 0	(NCC 100%, NPU 0%)

Home teams in bold.

Welcome to Slaughter Week (supersized edition).

[Jbothe]

Augustana-Carroll definitely game of the week.

Home field advantage might swing this to Augie.

Wesleyan will be ok this week but sounds like they need to get healthy. They didn't use a running back against Wheaton. 

[CarollFan]

Augustana-Carroll definitely game of the week.

Home field advantage might swing this to Augie.

They are 4-4 last 8 years with home team 3-1. Multiple OT games and losses coming down to last possession.

I don't think Logan is running a model for the points NCC opponents are going score. He has it hard coded to zero.

[CarollFan]

https://cciw.org/news/2025/10/13/four-earn-cciw-football-weekly-awards.aspx


We have some kickers that can boot the ball in the CCIW this year.

[Cardinal773]

CCIW Players of the Week Against (week 4 of 9):

Team	Total	Offensive	Defensive	Special Teams
Carthage	3	2	1	0
IWU	2	1	0	1
Millikin	2	1	0	1
Wash U	2	0	0	2
Augie	1	0	1	0
Carroll	1	0	1	0
North Park	1	0	0	1
Wheaton	1	0	1	0
Elmhurst	0	0	0	0
North Central	0	0	0	0

Last year... 
(I'm missing a week or 2.)

TEAM      TOTAL  Off.  Def.    ST
Millikin          6        1      2      3
Carthage      4        2      2      0
Carroll          3        1      2      0
N. Park          3        0      1      2
Augustana    2        1      0      1
Elmhurst      2        2      0      0
IWU              2        1      1      0
Wash. U.      2        0      0      2
Wheaton      1        1      0      0
N. Central    0        0      0      0

[D3fanboy]

How might the UWO loss impact NC's playoff seeding?  We lucked out not having to travel last year, but a lot of that was thanks to Springfield and Susquehanna knocking out the top seeds.

Logan Hansen has created a tool where you can see how Oshkosh's final record will effect NCC's NPI. 

https://loghan.shinyapps.io/hansen-ratings-diii-football-season-simulation-distributions/

Based on going through the teams with a shot at being undefeated, his model has the following possible final NPI final calculations:

1. UWL 9-0,  NPI average = 82.645
2. Johns Hopkins 10-0, NPI avg = 81.871
3. Mount Union 10-0, NPI avg = 78.95
4. Christopher Newport 10-0, NPI avg = 77.61
5. Wartburg 10-0, NPI avg = 77.601
6. NCC 10-0, NPI avg = 77.218


All other undefeated teams would slot in below NCC in average NPI based on what I have looked at.  The above would basically be worst case scenario, as NCC would be on the road at Alliance in the quarter finals. 

NCC fans should be rooting for UWL to lose at least one game and for Christopher Newport to lose to Salisbury.  I don't see John Hopkins & Mount losing with what's left on their schedules and Wartburg could lose to Central, but a 10-0 Central would slide right in where Wartburg is listed above. 

If Oshkosh goes undefeated the rest of the way, NCC avg NPI would raise to 78.4.  If Oshkosh finishes with 4 losses, NCC NPI drops all the way down to 76.88 on average.  5 losses = 76.124, which is still very possible since Oshkosh has LaCrosse, Whitewater, and Platteville all still on its schedule.

isnt NPI the best?

[CarollFan]

Did someone say NPI?

Team        NPI Rank    NPI #        Overall  Conference    Remaining Games
NCC             #3          74.925          5-0          4-0             @NPU, Augie,@Carroll,@Elmhurst,IWU.
WashU        #28       62.876        4-1          3-1                Elmhurst,@Wheaton,@Millikin,NPU,@Augie
Wheaton     #41       61.730        3-2         3-1                Carthage,WashU,@Elmhurst,Millikin,@NPU
Augie           #51       60.261        4-1          3-1                 Carroll,@NCC,IWU,@Carthage,WashU
Carroll      #121      48.903        2-3          2-2                @Augie,Elmhurst,NCC,@IWU,@Carthage
IWU           #122      48.788        2-3          2-2                @Millikin,NPU,@Augie,Carroll,@NCC
Carthage    #135     47.195        2-3          1-3                @Wheaton,Millikin,@NPU,Augie,Carroll
Millikin     #150      45.581        2-3          1-3                 IWU,@Carthage,WashU,@Wheaton,Elmhurst
NPU          #153      45.143         2-3          1-3                 NCC,@IWU,Carthage,@WashU,Wheaton
Elmhurst   #208     35.140        1-4          0-4               @WashU,@Carroll,Wheaton,NCC,@Millikin

If you are not familiar with the NPI formula and are interested, see links in attached.
https://d3datacast.com/npi/fb/

Components to the formula are:
1) Win/Loss. Win worth 40, Loss worth 0.
2) Strength of schedule (SOS) determined by opponents NPI (ONPI * .6)
3) Quality win bonus (QWB) = ((ONPI – 54) * .25).  If ONPI is less than 54 you don't get the bonus.
4) Away/Home. Away loss and home win adjusted by .9. Away win and home loss adjusted by 1.1.

To calculate NPI you add up all the game NPI's and divide by total adjusted wins/losses (.9 or 1.1) not by total games.  If you have more than 5 wins you have to use at least 5 wins in the calculation.  Could use more wins if they benefit your overall NPI.

Beating a team whose NPI is over 54 is good because of the QWB but away wins even against teams whose NPI is not that great are good too.

For example, Wheaton has an away win against IWU whose NPI is 48.788.
The game NPI for Wheaton in that game is (40+ (.6 * 48.788)) * 1.1 = 76.20. If that win was at home for Wheaton they would have a game NPI of 62.34. You would multiply by .9 instead of 1.1. So, when you are looking at the remaining schedule, away wins could be a real boost to a teams NPI.

The 2 toughest schedules remaining seem to be for NPU and Elmhurst.

I'll add I don't think WashU did itself any favors by scheduling Rhodes (1-4) for it's non-conference game. From a NPI standpoint in the end they may wish they had a more quality win for non-conference especially if they end up 8-2.

[CarollFan]

CCIW Players of the Week Against (week 4 of 9):

Team	Total	Offensive	Defensive	Special Teams
Carthage	3	2	1	0
IWU	2	1	0	1
Millikin	2	1	0	1
Wash U	2	0	0	2
Augie	1	0	1	0
Carroll	1	0	1	0
North Park	1	0	0	1
Wheaton	1	0	1	0
Elmhurst	0	0	0	0
North Central	0	0	0	0

NCC and Elmhurst with none...of course...numbers don't lie.

[CarollFan]

https://cciw.org/news/2025/10/13/four-earn-cciw-football-weekly-awards.aspx


We have some kickers that can boot the ball in the CCIW this year.

Let's not forget the punters.

https://www.d3football.com/awards/tow/2025/week6

[CarollFan]

I think one thing holding NCC back when they are chasing these other top teams for playoff seed is NCC has 6 home games this year. That's not necessarily a good thing with this current NPI formula. Road wins against inferior teams can end up with higher game NPI's than home wins against better teams.

It's better for your NPI to beat the best teams you're playing on the road.
I wouldn't be surprised if WashU and Carroll away games turn out to be the top 2 game NPI's for NCC.

[Cardinal773]

It's time to make peace with the facts: The Cards are going to be on the road just like in 2023.  #1stWorldProblems

[NCC2010]

It's time to make peace with the facts: The Cards are going to be on the road just like in 2023.  #1stWorldProblems

I wouldn't go that far...they were the #5 overall seed just last year and didn't have to travel due to higher seeded teams losing.  Same can easily happen again this year.

I think one thing holding NCC back when they are chasing these other top teams for playoff seed is NCC has 6 home games this year. That's not necessarily a good thing with this current NPI formula. Road wins against inferior teams can end up with higher game NPI's than home wins against better teams.

It's better for your NPI to beat the best teams you're playing on the road.
I wouldn't be surprised if WashU and Carroll away games turn out to be the top 2 game NPI's for NCC

Having Oshkosh this year instead of Aurora last year will definitely be a difference.  Having 9-1 Aurora means more for NPI than a likely 6-4 or 5-5 Oshkosh, even if Oshkosh's SOS blows away that of Aurora's last year.  Would also help NCC if there is a clear top 3 in the conference, meaning Wheaton 8-2, WashU 8-2, Augie 7-3 as opposed to WashU or Augie losing some games and finishing 6-4 or worse like how the conference played out last year.