FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[CarollFan]

It's time to make peace with the facts: The Cards are going to be on the road just like in 2023.  #1stWorldProblems

I wouldn't go that far...they were the #5 overall seed just last year and didn't have to travel due to higher seeded teams losing.  Same can easily happen again this year.

I think one thing holding NCC back when they are chasing these other top teams for playoff seed is NCC has 6 home games this year. That's not necessarily a good thing with this current NPI formula. Road wins against inferior teams can end up with higher game NPI's than home wins against better teams.

It's better for your NPI to beat the best teams you're playing on the road.
I wouldn't be surprised if WashU and Carroll away games turn out to be the top 2 game NPI's for NCC

Having Oshkosh this year instead of Aurora last year will definitely be a difference.  Having 9-1 Aurora means more for NPI than a likely 6-4 or 5-5 Oshkosh, even if Oshkosh's SOS blows away that of Aurora's last year.  Would also help NCC if there is a clear top 3 in the conference, meaning Wheaton 8-2, WashU 8-2, Augie 7-3 as opposed to WashU or Augie losing some games and finishing 6-4 or worse like how the conference played out last year. 

All true. I just didn't realize the huge swing in home and away wins. Look at the game NPI for WashU game. It's 16 points higher than Wheaton win, for now.
If the Wheaton win was on the road NCC's overall NPI could be 2 points maybe more higher. Beating a 5-5 Augie team on the road may be better than beating a 7-3 Augie team at home.

The NCAA has a column win value for each team which basically equals the sum of Win + SOS + QWB you get for beating that team.
The way this looks to calculate the game NPI's for home wins you basically reduce the win value by 10% and for road wins you increase the win value by 10%.

Maybe I'm looking at something wrong.

[CarollFan]

Time change in the IWU @ Millikin game.

https://www.iwusports.com/news/2025/10/17/football-game-at-millikin-moved-up-to-10-30-am-kickoff.aspx

[CarollFan]

Previews:

NCC @ NPU

Carroll @ Augie

IWU @ Millikin

[CarollFan]

My recommendation for improving NPI

Change win/sos from 40/60 to 30/70.
Change home win multiplier from .9 to 1.0.

I understand rewarding an away win. I don't understand punishing a home win. In the home win I believe you should capture the true value of beating your opponent which is their win value (Win + SOS + QWB).

[Pat Coleman]

You can't reward a road win for the visitor without taking it from somewhere. 1.1-0.9 is relatively small, I think.

[CarollFan]

You can't reward a road win for the visitor without taking it from somewhere. 1.1-0.9 is relatively small, I think.

The win value for Wheaton is 78.97. For NCC win at home you deduct 10% so game NPI is 71.073. Difference of over 7 points. If you divide that by 5 or 6 games your talking over 1 point on overall NPI.

If you can't go 1.0 then something lower then 10%.

If you look at home wins across the D3 universe they look like they're capped because even if the NPI increases  your only using 60% of NPI and then you deduct 10% from the win value (40 + SOS + QWB).

[CarollFan]

You can't reward a road win for the visitor without taking it from somewhere. 1.1-0.9 is relatively small, I think.

Here is a great example of what current formula gives us.
Bethel beat St. John's (4-1) at home and Gustavus (1-4) on the road.
St. John's NPI = 62.525 #29.  Gustavus NPI = 42.842 #166.
Almost a 20 point difference in NPI. 137 position difference in rank.

Bethel Game NPI for beating St. John's = 71.681
Bethel Game NPI for beating Gustavus = 72.276

These may change but it doesn't matter, assume 2 teams who end the season with these NPI's. You can just plug numbers into the formula and see the different results.