FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

For the Thunder this weekend they face Crown who is 7-3. Crown runs the ball 75% of the time and have averaged 5.5 yds per rush for 230 yds per game for the 16th best rush offense in the D3 land. Their pass offense accounts for 835 yds on the season (74-154-5 int, 48%) and 83 yds per game. The Thunder will have to stop the run this weekend.

Defensively they have found their footing in turnovers. 9 fumbles and 14 interceptions and they are top 25 in the nation in Turnover Margin. They are top 15 in getting off the field on 3rd down and 9th in red zone defense.

They lost to a 1-9 team and a 4-6 team and their best wins are over 5-5 Martin Luther (2x). They don't have any wins over a team with a winning record (Simpson is the only team they played that has a winning record).

 

I think this game is a candidate for biggest mismatch of all D-III games this year. Have we ever had a playoff team that lost to a 1-9 team? Congrats to Crown for making the playoffs. I'm sure this is a huge deal to them and I respect the heck out of what they've accomplished. But this draw...yikes!

Logan may have to adjust his algorithm to defy the mathematics of oddsmaking and give Crown a negative-number chance of winning.

[Cardinal773]

I think this game is a candidate for biggest mismatch of all D-III games this year. Have we ever had a playoff team that lost to a 1-9 team? 

To a D3 school.  Probably not.  I'm sure there's a pedant out there who's going to give us an "um-actually, Lacrosse lost to 2-10 D1 FCS Upper Northern Michigan Tech State once." ... to which pedant #2 will reply, "You dummy, 2-10 is better than 1-9! Why are you bagging on the WIAC?" Followed by the D3 classic, "The WIAC should be D2 because..."  We need to develop a D3 boards bingo board.  Perhaps a CCIW version?  I'd kind of love that.

As for Crown, they're gonna lose to an 8-2 team and it's gonna be a character-builder.  Wartburg will lose to Wheaton. Mark my words!

[Cardinal773]

D3 Board Bingo Board (or drinking game if you're not a Wheaton person) ideas....

WIAC should be D3.
Complaining about how UMU has been "bad" because they lost 5 games in the last 7 years or something.
Egregious pedantry.
"Delay of game" -- Someone has to have the last word.
Napervagas.


Suggestions?

[Gregory Sager]

D3 Board Bingo Board (or drinking game if you're not a Wheaton person) ideas....

WIAC should be D3.
Complaining about how UMU has been "bad" because they lost 5 games in the last 7 years or something.
Egregious pedantry.
"Delay of game" -- Someone has to have the last word.
Napervagas.


Suggestions?

* Stormin' Norman Eash gibes
* Complaints that NCC can't find a willing D3 non-con victim opponent
* Elmhurst's next head coach
* Busride lengths
* Too many Wheaton penalties
* Sager explains NPU's recruiting handicaps (this one's gotta be center square on the Bingo board )

[hazzben]

Logan's predictions this week.

He gives Wheaton 100% chance to win.
He has WashU as the underdog given them a 27.2% chance to win.

https://hansenratings.github.io/2025%20Round%201.html

That might be underselling Wheaton's chances 

[hazzben]

For the Thunder this weekend they face Crown who is 7-3. Crown runs the ball 75% of the time and have averaged 5.5 yds per rush for 230 yds per game for the 16th best rush offense in the D3 land. Their pass offense accounts for 835 yds on the season (74-154-5 int, 48%) and 83 yds per game. The Thunder will have to stop the run this weekend.

Defensively they have found their footing in turnovers. 9 fumbles and 14 interceptions and they are top 25 in the nation in Turnover Margin. They are top 15 in getting off the field on 3rd down and 9th in red zone defense.

They lost to a 1-9 team and a 4-6 team and their best wins are over 5-5 Martin Luther (2x). They don't have any wins over a team with a winning record (Simpson is the only team they played that has a winning record).

I was at the game between now 4-6 UNW and Crown that the Storming Thunder lost (don't ask how or why I was, but I was there  ). Incredibly underwhelming is how I would describe it. Two very incomplete teams. Crown's QB is a good athlete, so so arm talent, with an even more meh OL. In any other conference his rushing stats would be significantly deflated. I believe during that game he came into it Top 5 in individual rushing, I was expecting to see Michael Vick from VTech days. It wasn't that.

Not sure the best way to capture it, but at every level on O / D there are guys out there who just don't look like college football players. Certainly guys who'd never see the field in the CCIW. Wheaton will absolutely dominate the LOS.

[bleedpurple]

For the Thunder this weekend they face Crown who is 7-3. Crown runs the ball 75% of the time and have averaged 5.5 yds per rush for 230 yds per game for the 16th best rush offense in the D3 land. Their pass offense accounts for 835 yds on the season (74-154-5 int, 48%) and 83 yds per game. The Thunder will have to stop the run this weekend.

Defensively they have found their footing in turnovers. 9 fumbles and 14 interceptions and they are top 25 in the nation in Turnover Margin. They are top 15 in getting off the field on 3rd down and 9th in red zone defense.

They lost to a 1-9 team and a 4-6 team and their best wins are over 5-5 Martin Luther (2x). They don't have any wins over a team with a winning record (Simpson is the only team they played that has a winning record).

I was at the game between now 4-6 UNW and Crown that the Storming Thunder lost (don't ask how or why I was, but I was there  ). Incredibly underwhelming is how I would describe it. Two very incomplete teams. Crown's QB is a good athlete, so so arm talent, with an even more meh OL. In any other conference his rushing stats would be significantly deflated. I believe during that game he came into it Top 5 in individual rushing, I was expecting to see Michael Vick from VTech days. It wasn't that.

Not sure the best way to capture it, but at every level on O / D there are guys out there who just don't look like college football players. Certainly guys who'd never see the field in the CCIW. Wheaton will absolutely dominate the LOS.

Not having seen Crown, your description is exactly what I would have imagined. This could have been a great opportunity for Wheaton to reward/develop the back half of the roster if not for the playoff roster limits.

*Hazzbeen, you get HUGE D-III Geek Points for attending that game!

[Gregory Sager]

Here's how the D3 football experts see the first round.

Since Wheaton can't dress the scrubs and hold down the score that way, it bears mentioning that the D3 playoff records for most points and largest scoring margin were set by St. John's in the Johnnies' 84-6 revenge-for-the-Reformation evisceration of Martin Luther in 2018.

Note that Martin Luther and Crown are both in the UMAC, which for all intents and purposes should be regarded in D3 playoff terms as the Crash Test Dummies Conference.

[hazzben]

Here's how the D3 football experts see the first round.
the D3 playoff records for most points and largest scoring margin were set by St. John's in the Johnnies' 84-6 revenge-for-the-Reformation evisceration of Martin Luther in 2018.

Note that Martin Luther and Crown are both in the UMAC, which for all intents and purposes should be regarded in D3 playoff terms as the Crash Test Dummies Conference.

I'd imagine Bethel's undressing of then UMAC champ St. Scholastica in 2013 70-13 has to be up there too. For context, those CSS teams were the "dominant force" in the UMAC for about 5 years and crushing the rest of the league most weeks. This Crown team isn't as close to the rest of D3 field as those CSS teams IMO.

Incidentally that year Bethel and NCC also met up in the quarterfinals. Bethel lost their MVP QB in the 4th Q against Wartburg on our frozen grass/concrete field the week prior. Then got beat handily by a very good NCC team that came within a hairs breath of beating Mount in the Semi's. Weirdly interesting how all 3 of those teams are basically setup in the bracket the same way again. With the caveat NCC/Bethel quad is rated by Logan as the toughest ever, so it'll take more work to get back to the rematch this time around. Especially for Bethel.

[GusD]

Here's how the D3 football experts see the first round.

Since Wheaton can't dress the scrubs and hold down the score that way, it bears mentioning that the D3 playoff records for most points and largest scoring margin were set by St. John's in the Johnnies' 84-6 revenge-for-the-Reformation evisceration of Martin Luther in 2018.

Note that Martin Luther and Crown are both in the UMAC, which for all intents and purposes should be regarded in D3 playoff terms as the Crash Test Dummies Conference.

The NCAA only allows teams to dress 58 players for playoff games as opposed to the legions permitted during the regular season. Nonetheless, it wouldn't be surprising to see only Wheaton's numbers 23 through 58 on the field during the second half of Saturday's game.
The Wheaties will almost certainly truly bring the thunder down upon Crown, resulting in an outcome that will qualify for inclusion in the monkey-stomping category of wins.

[Gregory Sager]

I'd imagine Bethel's undressing of then UMAC champ St. Scholastica in 2013 70-13 has to be up there too. For context, those CSS teams were the "dominant force" in the UMAC for about 5 years and crushing the rest of the league most weeks. This Crown team isn't as close to the rest of D3 field as those CSS teams IMO.

Here's the D3 playoff logbook for the Crash Test Dummies Conference since it first got the automatic D3 playoff bid in 2011:

2011: St. Thomas 48, St. Scholastica 2
2012: UW-Oshkosh 55, St. Scholastica 10
2013: Bethel 70, St. Scholastica 13
2014: St. John's 35, St. Scholastica 7
2015: UW-Oshkosh 48, St. Scholastica 0
2016: St. Thomas 43, Northwestern 0
2017: St. Thomas 47, Eureka 8
2018: St. John's 84, Martin Luther 6
2019: Wheaton 51, Martin Luther 7
2020: no playoffs
2021: UW-Whitewater 69, Greenville 7
2022: St. John's 49, Northwestern 0
2023: UW-La Crosse 62, UM-Morris 7
2024: UW-La Crosse 59, Northwestern 14

That averages out to a 55-6 score per appearance.

[hazzben]

Geez, it's almost like there's a theme in those blowouts 

it wouldn't be surprising to see only Wheaton's numbers 23 through 58 on the field during the second half of Saturday's game.

I'd be shocked if all 58 didn't see the field. It's a war of attrition as much as anything in the playoffs. If you can spare your 2 deep extra snaps in the second half you take it. Plus it's a cool experience to see the field in that kind of environment, so get the kids in.