FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Cardinal773]

Looks like Wheaton could have dressed all of their scrubs.  Also, congratulations to Concordia-Wisconsin on playing in your very last NCAA football playoff game... or do they have another season to go.

[hazzben]

Looks like Wheaton could have dressed all of their scrubs.  Also, congratulations to Concordia-Wisconsin on playing in your very last NCAA football playoff game... or do they have another season to go.

Concordia Wisconsin has a daunting adjustment to the CCIW coming judging by that Coe game. Their D gave them no chance.

[GusD]

Looks like Wheaton could have dressed all of their scrubs.  Also, congratulations to Concordia-Wisconsin on playing in your very last NCAA football playoff game... or do they have another season to go.

Concordia Wisconsin has a daunting adjustment to the CCIW coming judging by that Coe game. Their D gave them no chance.

What CCIW teams  could they beat?

[CarollFan]

Logan's round 2 projections.

https://hansenratings.github.io/2025%20Round%202.html

[CarollFan]

Looks like Wheaton could have dressed all of their scrubs.  Also, congratulations to Concordia-Wisconsin on playing in your very last NCAA football playoff game... or do they have another season to go.

They have another season in the NACC. Join CCIW in 2027.

[CarollFan]

Looks like Wheaton could have dressed all of their scrubs.  Also, congratulations to Concordia-Wisconsin on playing in your very last NCAA football playoff game... or do they have another season to go.

Concordia Wisconsin has a daunting adjustment to the CCIW coming judging by that Coe game. Their D gave them no chance.

What CCIW teams  could they beat?

We'll find out in 2027.
They went 8-0 in the NACC. Start from the bottom of the CCIW and work your way up. You think all those teams would go 8-0 in the NACC? Where would Coe end up in the CCIW?

[hazzben]

Looks like Wheaton could have dressed all of their scrubs.  Also, congratulations to Concordia-Wisconsin on playing in your very last NCAA football playoff game... or do they have another season to go.

Concordia Wisconsin has a daunting adjustment to the CCIW coming judging by that Coe game. Their D gave them no chance.

What CCIW teams  could they beat?

I was obviously a year premature, but I think .500 in the league in 2027 would be a massive accomplishment. They just don't have a category for that kind of schedule week in and week out, or the attrition that comes with it. But y'all would know better than me.

[USee]

Logan's round 2 projections.

https://hansenratings.github.io/2025%20Round%202.html

Wheaton a 5 pt favorite at Logan's Wartburg? That's some serious home cooking Hansen. You gotta go badk and tweak your algorithms. Invest in a couple Nvidia chips to run more simulations.

[markerickson]

Here's my hard take on the CCIW requiring football to sustain membership.

https://www.eastportlandblog.com/

[USee]

Wheaton v Wartburg is a great matchup. Wheaton has a legit offense  and an opportunistic defense. Wartburg has a legit defense and a ball control, physical offense. Its strength on strength. Wartburgs rush defense is #4 in the country and they are the real deal, giving up 43 yds a game on the ground. They shutout UW Stout, held Coe to 24 yds rushing (averaged 220 yds) and Central to 34 yds rushing (avg 180). They play mostly zone defense and don't blitz much at all. Their DL is dominant. They have 3 of 4 with double digit tackles for loss and their MLB is DPOY in the ARC. 26 sacks in 10 games almost all of which are the DL as they don't blitz. The most impressive thing about their DL is they are all good at getting off blocks. They have given up some pass yds but when you get in the redzone, that zone gets awfully tight. They are the #5 scoring defense for a reason.  they sit back in a zone and keep everything in front of them and then come up and gang tackle aggressively. They have 14 Interceptions on the season, which you would expect out of a zone team. It takes a disciplined and physical offense to drive the ball the length of the field without making a mistake (TFL, fumble, INT, sack) and Wartburg defense are great tacklers so they don't give up much Yds after contact. Wheaton has its work cut out for them.

That said, Forcucci and Co. are well suited for this. They have a stable of receivers and running backs that make them difficult to defend and he gets rid of the ball  quickly. If the Wheaton OL holds up against this DL I think the Thunder can score. This defense isn't as good as NCC but it's better than Mt Union's defense.

Wartburgs offense looks a lot like Wheaton. The difference is Wartburg is absolutely committed to the run game. They run it 60-65% of the time and they won't get away from that if they don't have to. Yet their QB gets rid of the ball quickly and completes 63% of his passes to a diverse group of WR's (sound familiar?). The QB was 2nd team all ARC and he can make all the throws. I saw him throw a 15 yd out cut from the right hash to a WR who was pretty well covered and he completed it outside the left numbers. Toughest throw in football to make. 

Hazzbeen mentioned Wheaton will have to score in the 20+ pt range to win and I think that's right. If Wheaton can put up 24-34 pts that gives them a great chance. Defensively, the Thunder have to avoid big plays and maintain gap discipline on defense. And if you can get Dodd (Wartburg QB) off his first read he has a tendency to hold the ball and you can get to him.

I can't imagine what Logan Hansen put into his flux capacitor to make Wheaton a 5.3pt favorite on the road to his alma maters stadium, but here we are. This time I hope he's right.

[USee]

For North Central they face a pretty strong Hanover team playing it's best football. They have the #13 defense in the country and they held early season top 15 Grove City to 15 pts last Saturday. And they can throw it around with a top 25 pass offense. If they can protect the QB  and hold up defensively against the run, they might make some noise in Naperville.

[CarollFan]

Looks like low 30's into 20's and chance of snow for both games.

[cuyahogacuse]

Looks like low 30's into 20's and chance of snow for both games.

Looks like more than a chance.

Forecast calling for 3-5" of the white stuff.

[CarollFan]

Looks like low 30's into 20's and chance of snow for both games.

Looks like more than a chance.

Forecast calling for 3-5" of the white stuff.

Yes games in IL, IA, WI, MI and MN have all similar forecasts. Some predicting less snow but Midwest is predicted to get some snow Saturday.

[USee]

Apologies in advance—this is a bit of a ramble.

One of the biggest challenges in predicting outcomes in Division III football is the limited data set. With only a 10-game schedule, it's nothing like the massive sample sizes in professional basketball (82 games) or baseball (162 games). On top of that, D3 teams rarely play meaningful cross-regional games, which makes comparisons even harder.

Playoff football at this level is usually won at the line of scrimmage. The problem is that most conferences only have zero, one, or maybe two teams that can legitimately test an opponent's offensive or defensive line. That's one reason the WIAC is so tough: every week is a physical test, and most of those teams also play strong non-conference schedules. You get a truer read on their ability in the trenches.

But in recent years, WIAC teams haven't advanced as far in the postseason. My working theory is that once you reach the playoffs, nearly every opponent can match you up front—so skill players start to matter much more. A great running back can't shine if the line is losing the battle every snap. The same is true for quarterbacks (see: the Chiefs' struggles vs. the Eagles in the Super Bowl). And recently the WIAC just hasn't had many high-end skill players. When was the last time UW-Whitewater had a dominant QB? How many WIAC players sit in the top 25 nationally at the major skill-position stats? River Falls might be the exception this year, and I'm excited to see how they handle a postseason run.

Contrast that with North Central. Their dominance has traditionally started up front—especially on the offensive line—and behind that they've had Gagliardi-winning quarterbacks (twice) and a Gagliardi-winning running back. This year, their defensive front might be the best we've seen in five-plus years, anchored by a potential D3 Defensive Player of the Year in JP Sullivan. Behind him are two All-America-caliber linebackers and a physical, athletic secondary with one or two more AAs. The one unknown is the offensive line. It might be "business as usual," but last year's Stagg Bowl line was generationally good. Even if this group doesn't reach that level, I suspect they're still strong enough—especially with the WRs, RBs, and QB behind them. Still, there are a couple of teams on their path that will test them, and if NCC doesn't win it all this year, it'll likely be because someone finally stopped the run and forced them to be one-dimensional.

Bethel is another team I like. They look solid up front and have excellent skill and perimeter players. The question with them, like NCC, is whether they've faced anyone close to semifinal-level competition yet. Even so, they absolutely pass the eye test.

Every year, fans of certain teams roll into the postseason thinking "this is the year" or "this is our best team ever." Then we lose in the Round of 32 or 16 and blame execution or officiating. But more often, the truth is simpler: we overestimated our team. When a supposedly dominant front gets neutralized, you need elite skill players—true "dudes"—to make the difference. For NCC, Luke Lehnen did exactly that; he tilted close games their way. This year, I'm not sure who those guys will be, but I'm keeping an eye on players like Kaleb Blaha, Mike Maloney, Thomas Skokna and Garrett Wilson, Cooper Drews and Albert Rundell, Geoff Schroeder, and yes, Mark Forcucci and Seth Kortenhouven.

In the playoffs, you need dominant offensive and defensive fronts. And when those units cancel each other out, you need your dudes to step up and carry you through.