FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[GusD]

Looks like snow in the forecast. I'd say that's advantage NCC. Bethel will need to be able to throw the ball. It depends how heavy the snow is I guess.

Right now the predicted high temp for Naperville on Saturday is 12 with 1-3 inches of snow.

[USee]

Wheatons offense was doo doo when we played you. Forcucci was hurt and our OL was nowhere near ready for the NCC Def front. 

Our defense is also playing much better.  Not to say it would have changed the outcome.

Bethel is much more balanced than Lacrosse. 

[USee]

Where Team stats sat nationally going into the playoffs. Once you hit playoffs these get skewed due to teams not playing or bounced early stay high, not facing 2-3 rds of top comp.
Listed in order by Logan Hansen's Predictive Rating - National Rankings: Scoring O, Scoring D, Total O, Total D, Red Zone O, Red Zone D, Pass Eff, Pass Eff D, Rush O, Rush D, TO Margin, 1st Down O, 1st Down D, 3rd Down, 3rd Down D, 4th Down, 4th Down D

#1 UWRF (LH - 56.3): 10, 61, 1, 83, 43, 83, 58, 69, 19, 23, 43, 1, 80, 19, 40, 75, 19 - Ave: 42.8
#2 North Central (LH - 55.0): 1, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 6, 24, 11, 8, 25, 5, 3, 1 - Ave: 6.5
#3 Bethel (LH - 46.6): 2, 2, 7, 6, 10, 6, 35, 6, 17, 5, 8, 2, 3, 7, 4, 27, 3 - Ave: 8.8
#4 Wheaton (LH - 43.3): 12, 44, 23, 47, 54, 230, 9, 75, 98, 45, 68, 23, 68, 9, 70, 36, 126 - Ave: 61.2

Noteworthy:
- UWRF and NCC flip for the first time all season. Bethel a steady #3, Wheaton keeps rising, up from #11 for LH Ratings.
- NCC was Top 25 in every category, top 5 in 13 heading into the post-season.
- Bethel the clear number 2 statistically, and not far off NCC. UWRF numbers are skewed given the WIAC slate.
- UWRF's D was clearly their weakness, and the WIAC was not an offensively explosive league this year. However, back-half D numbers would look much better for UWRF. They will face their most balanced, explosive offense this week. No one they faced in WIAC has a passing game as good as Wheaton, or the balance IMO. UWP was probably closest (I don't think UWL QB was healthy).
- All 4 teams are playing very good football, Wheaton with the biggest improvement, but also the most room to improve.
- Each team has faced at least 1 very good defense in the post-season and both moved the ball and scored.
You've basically two groupings. UWRF and NCC are essentially 1a and 1b. There's a small gap, then Bethel and Wheaton in a grouping. Home teams are clear favorites. Logan's Spreads: NCC -12, UWRF -13. This is the tightest spread Logan's system has projected for NCC since 2021 v UMHB. Weather is a major variable. River Falls will be right around 0 with low wind and low chance of snow. Naperville high of 14 with likely light snowfall. The snow is the biggest X factor IMO. Bethel will need to be able to throw the ball effectively.

Logan's Odds of making Stagg Bowl | winning title:
NCC 70% | 46%
UWRF 65% | 34%
Bethel 16% | 7.1%
Wheaton 10% | 2.9%

BTW Hazz, this is a great post. Love this data.

[CarollFan]

I think Bethel needs to keep NCC under 21 pts to have a chanced to win. It will be tough for Bethel to score much more than that IMO. Lacrosse scored on the last play of the game to get to 28.

Another LaCrosse TD was setup by a 50 yd half back pass that got them down to the 1.  They then scored on 4th and goal from the 3 on a play where Haas was dead to rights in Renick's arms, escaped and then made a good throw and an even better catch by the TE for the TD.

I need to watch more of Bethel before I comment on their offense compared to UWL/Wheaton, etc.

UWL had 418 total yds, more yards then NCC. UWL had 347 passing yds. UWL WR #19 had 100 yds receiving and 4 TD's.

I think the NCC picks by Roby #2 were huge, stopping a drive and a pick 6 late in first half.

Turnovers could be huge this Saturday too.

Here is the press conference you were discussing earlier. Sound is a little off early but clears up after a minute or so.

[NCC2010]

I think Bethel needs to keep NCC under 21 pts to have a chanced to win. It will be tough for Bethel to score much more than that IMO. Lacrosse scored on the last play of the game to get to 28.

Another LaCrosse TD was setup by a 50 yd half back pass that got them down to the 1.  They then scored on 4th and goal from the 3 on a play where Haas was dead to rights in Renick's arms, escaped and then made a good throw and an even better catch by the TE for the TD.

I need to watch more of Bethel before I comment on their offense compared to UWL/Wheaton, etc.

UWL had 418 total yds, more yards then NCC. UWL had 347 passing yds. UWL WR #19 had 100 yds receiving and 4 TD's.

I think the NCC picks by Roby #2 were huge, stopping a drive and a pick 6 late in first half.

Turnovers could be huge this Saturday too.

Here is the press conference you were discussing earlier. Sound is a little off early but clears up after a minute or so.

Without a doubt Roby's 2 INTS were the critical plays in the game.  However, the total yards are a bit misleading IMO.  UWL outgained NCC 186 yards to 14 over the final 9 minutes of the game and closed the gap from 35-14 to 35-27 in that time.  Obviously not ideal to give up that much yardage, but their were backups mixed in the last 2 drives and UWL had 3 drives to NCC's 1 in that 9 minutes due to recovering the onside kick.

If there is snowfall on Saturday I'm hoping there isn't too much as Coach Spencer mentioned in either this press conference of the previous one that the field is essentially on top of rocks/the river and therefore they cannot use a bigger plow on it. 

[NCC2010]

Wheatons offense was doo doo when we played you. Forcucci was hurt and our OL was nowhere near ready for the NCC Def front. 

Our defense is also playing much better.  Not to say it would have changed the outcome.

Bethel is much more balanced than Lacrosse. 

Sorry I wasn't trying to say the Wheaton and UWL offense were equal to or less than each other or Bethel.  I more so meant I need to watch some Bethel games to see how they compare to those 2 offenses which were clearly the best NCC faced this season.

I'm very high on Forcucci as a player and NCC was fortunate to not have to play him either this season at full health or last season when he didn't play at all.

I also still stand by what I said right after the NCC/Wheaton game, that was the best home atmosphere NCC has had in my time attending NCC games since 2005. I think that played a factor in the score as well. The only other comparison I have is the 2022 semifinal against UMHB where the crowd was really great.

[Pat Coleman]

Sorry to see the news (and thanks to the heads-up from one member of this board) that Jeff Thorne has died.

I am glad I was able to catch up with him and chat at the Little Brass Bell game this year. We had a nice, long, off-the-record conversation during the third quarter. I hope he is at peace and that his family can find comfort.

[robertgoulet]

If there is snowfall on Saturday I'm hoping there isn't too much as Coach Spencer mentioned in either this press conference of the previous one that the field is essentially on top of rocks/the river and therefore they cannot use a bigger plow on it. 

Gotta stick with Mr. Plow then...can't bring in the Plow King.

[ncc_fan]

https://northcentralcardinals.com/news/2025/12/10/north-central-mourns-loss-of-former-football-coach-jeff-thorne.aspx

[NCF]

My son just texted me the news. So very sad.

[hazzben]

Condolences to the Thorne family and NCC program. Cancer is terrible. He certainly left a legacy.

[USee]

Awful news. Condolences to the NCC family. Jeff Thorne was a good man. Blessings to his family

[Gregory Sager]

Same thoughts here. I have even more respect for Jeff Thorne for the man he was and the role model and life mentor he tried to be for his players than I do for his on-the-field successes. Condolences to those who loved him and who will miss him.

[gryfalia]

He was respected enough in the Chicago area that his passing made it on to Chicago WBBM radio news, it's very sad.

[USee]

Two stats I would highlight for the Wheaton @ UWRF game Saturday. UWRF runs on average 86 offensive plays a game, which is about 20 more than their opponents. That's a lot more offense. Their up tempo style keeps substitutions low and generally simplifies the defensive strategy while tiring them out over the course of a game. UWRF has run more plays in every game than their opponent. The closest spread I have seen is the past weekend when UWRF ran 80 plays and St Johns ran 70.

The second stat is that UWRF is tied for 2nd in the country in Turnovers generated. They have 22 INTs and 10 Fumble Recoveries this season.

These two stats together are a deadly combo. If RF runs 80+ plays (a couple games they have run 90-100) and the other team gives them 2+ extra possessions, it's hard to win. And that's before you factor in the personnel with Blaha, Timms, etc.

A final stat I would mention is that Wheaton and UWRF are coincidentally tied at 219th (out of 241 ranked teams) in fumbles given. That's a bad stat for both teams but I think one that might factor heavily in this game.

To me, Wheaton's QB Mark Forcucci doesn't throw a lot of Interceptions (just 6 this year on 35 TDs). If he does in this game Wheaton is toast. Assuming he does not, then the fumbles giveaway/takeaway will be critical. If Wheaton can take care of the football and go on some multi play, time consuming, 14 play drives that end in scores, that's potentially a recipe for success. And if they can get a couple fumbles/INT's to steal a couple extra possessions, all the better.

Blaha is really elite at what he does. He and his supporting cast are going to score. Wheaton will need to keep up, take care of the ball and figure out a way to steal a couple extra possessions in mind. Wheaton's defense has speed, just not as much size and strength relative to the big boy WIAC champs. They will have to utilize that to their advantage. DE Johanik and Kroger are going to have to be special and disciplined. When you let Blaha outside the pocket, bad things happen.