FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Pat Coleman]

NCC could have run for 300+ yards if they wanted to.  They could have passed for 400+ as well.  This was not a great defense they faced today. 

So many missed tackles.

[USee]

The majority of the talk we've heard about NCC vs JCU seems to be concentrated on the fact that the D line for JC will be the best NC has faced. If so, it seems to logically follow that chances are good that the NC ground game might well be limited to its lowest total of the season. Should that occur, does that pretty much insure JC wins? Let's not forget that NC can pass a little too, and that they are led by the nation's most efficient passer.

First, I didn't see anyone say JCU was the best DL NCC will have faced. That may have well been last week v Bethel, we shall see. I pointed out that JCU's defensive front held some pretty high quality playoff caliber teams to under 100 yds rushing in those games so it translates for me that will be the determining factor. And, while NCC can certainly pass, Wilson is an efficient passer primarily because the NCC run game is crushing everyone and when you commit extra people to stop the run, pass opportunities abound. If I am a defensive coordinator going against NCC I would absolutely love if NCC became a passing team. Not because they can't do it, but because they want to run the ball (and you have to pick you poison), that's their identity.

NCC ran for 204 yards which is under their 267 game average. However they passed for 324 yards, 101 over their per game average of 223. Perhaps, at least for this game, they did give the D coordinator what he thought he wanted by becoming primarily a passing team.
Who would have thought the Cards would total more yards through the air than did JC?

NCC ran 53 total plays, 30 runs and 23 passes.

[CarollFan]

UWRF winning TD.  I'm assuming we can use this since it's the NCAA.

[JCUStreaks70]

Congrats NCC. I wish I could say I am surprised by what played out on Saturday, but it is what I expected. The solace is that in D3 it takes years for a team to finally get over the hump to win it all. Look at NCC, it took them 15 years from their first playoff appearance to finally win the Stagg Bowl, so if this years Seniors took the lumps in the semi's, it shows recruits that one can win at JCU, and that each passing class is hopefully a tad better than the one before it, and that is how you build a program.

[CarollFan]

https://www.d3football.com/awards/all-americans/2025

Congrats to the All-Americans.

[USee]

I count 11 CCIW All Americans. 5 from NCC, 5 from Wheaton and 1 from Carroll. Congrats to all.

[WUPHF]

Merry Christmas all.

I am not sure if this was mentioned, but the University of Illinois press published a book on faith and college football.  Wheaton College gets a chapter along with Notre Dame, Baylor, BYU, Liberty and a few others.  It could be interesting, I have not seen any reviews yet.

https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=c046872

Also, Larry Kindbom published on a book on leadership several weeks back.  I have not had a chance to read it yet, but I can attest to the fact that he is a really good writer.

https://www.amazon.com/WINNING-LOSING-ARE-IMPOSTERS-LEADERSHIP/dp/B0FR9CJPR1/ref=sr_1_1?crid=226MD2MU9YYMG&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.7Dq3nhcnpZFl7grEYUIoTw.egxMhG4FC9ehed4QPbYFKCj4wykbH40zzB8MoAarig0&dib_tag=se&keywords=larry+kindbom&qid=1766763326&s=books&sprefix=larry+kind%2Cstripbooks%2C187&sr=1-1

[USee]

D3 National Championship Preview

North Central vs Wisconsin–River Falls. Here we are. The two best teams in Division III. The two best offenses in the country—built very differently.

Two elite coaching staffs now have an extra week to prepare, rep core concepts, and install new wrinkles. That matters. Coaches don't run plays they can't practice, and this extra time opens the door for situational football, specialty packages, and the kind of calculated trickery that often shows up on championship stages.

I've watched 11 North Central games and 10 River Falls games this season. In my opinion, here's how this matchup breaks down.
________________________________________
North Central (#1 Scoring O and D; #10 Total  D; #5 RZ O and #2 RZ D; #1 pass eff)
 
North Central runs the ball 65% of the time for 267 yards per game. As UWRF head coach Matt Walker put it: "boringly better than everyone at every position." That's accurate.

This team is built from the inside out. The offensive line sets the tone, led by OT Cortez Jones—a relentless drive blocker who fits NCC's identity perfectly. Sustaining blocks is core to the run game, and their wide receivers block as well as anyone on the field. No one has slowed this run game in six seasons.

And when you load the box, the pass game makes you pay. QB Garrett Wilson leads the nation in efficiency (207 rating), completes 70% of his throws, and has 42 TDs to just 4 INTs. He hasn't thrown a pick since October 4. RB Donovan McNeal (1,462 yards, 8 YPC) and WR Skokna (81 catches, Gagliardi semifinalist) headline an offense that is both methodical and explosive.

Defensively, this game features one of the two best players in D3 football: DL JP Sullivan.

Sullivan is a game-wrecker. No one has blocked him consistently all year (21 TFLs, 21 QB hurries). His presence, allows LBs Nuccio and Janiak to play fast and intelligently and in coverage—they understand route concepts and depth as well as any LB duo I've seen.

The strategic question for NCC:
Does DC Shane Dierking stay patient in two-high and rally to tackle—or does he try to force the issue with pressure? Sitting back keeps Blaha in front of you. But Dierking doesn't like bleeding slowly. If he pressures too much, it will get dangerous.

North Central doesn't beat itself. 4 interceptions. 5 fumbles. That's it. You have to take this game from them.
________________________________________
Wisconsin–River Falls (#1 Total O; #3 Pass O; #5 Scoring O; #1 First Downs O; #97 Total D)

Kaleb Blaha.

Best player in Division III. A true generational talent.

River Falls runs the most demanding offense in D3. They've run 1,191 plays this season—about 5 more games worth of offense than North Central. They play fast, they play wide, and everything stresses the defense.

Blaha is the engine:
•    4,690 passing yards
•    40 TDs
•    1,090 rushing yards
•    16 rushing TDs

He processes defenses at an elite level. The offense is designed to expose leverage, spacing, and rules—and Blaha knows exactly where the answer is on every snap. Their skill group is deep, tall, and versatile:
Rohrer, Wesolowski, Rush, Reifenberger, Hilton—all different, all dangerous. RB Trevor Asher adds balance with nearly 1,000 yards.

This offense forces you to decide what you're willing to give up.

Defensively, River Falls is better than people think.

LB Gage Timm (114 tackles) anchors a unit that thrives on disruption. RF has 99 tackles for loss and leads the nation with 27 interceptions. This defense is built to steal possessions. On money downs, they'll mug the LOS, show pressure, and bring more than you can block. The ball has to come out, and their DBs sit on the sticks and tackle. They don't give up many explosives, and their corners don't bite on double moves.

The key question:
Can they take the ball away from a North Central team that hasn't thrown an interception in three months?
________________________________________
The Matchup

Neither defense is stopping the opposing offense completely.

River Falls won't shut down the NCC run game—JHU ran for 233 yards against them. That will force man coverage and open explosives for Skokna and Rummel.

North Central won't "solve" Blaha. If they leave two-high all day, RF will nickel-and-dime them. If they pressure, Blaha will scramble and punish it.

This feels like a high-scoring game. But championships usually come down to the line of scrimmage. If Blaha can Mahomes his way into the fourth quarter, River Falls has a real shot.

In the end, I trust the best offensive and defensive fronts in the country to get a few critical stops.
If this game turns into a track meet, River Falls has the quarterback to win it late. But championships are usually decided up front, and North Central owns the best offensive and defensive fronts in Division III. That advantage shows up in the fourth quarter.

North Central 48
Wisconsin–River Falls 38

[GusD]

Excellent work USee. And you've made your first sale. Can't find anything in your analysis to argue with on either side of the ball. Well done. 👍

[robertgoulet]

Prediction time!

First, some common opponents (home team listed first) and each team's next "closest" game and a comment. All of the common opponents/scores come with caveats and I don't know that they're very useful comps:

1 NCC -  45      UWO -  21 (apt to throw this UWRF result out. Different team now.)
  UWO -  14    3 UWRF - 17

1  NCC - 35    3 UWRF - 41 (NCC was up 35-14 in the 4th before pulling starters. Played in a blizzard.)
13 UWL - 27    13 UWL -  7

1 NCC -  35    3 UWRF - 46 (Wheaton were peaking when they met UWRF, not the same team NCC beat)
19 WC -  0    19  WC - 21

1 NCC - 35    3 UWRF - 48 (these two results are the most interesting to me)
4 BU -  21    8 JHU  - 41

I have been of 2 minds on this upcoming matchup. The 1st (listed 1st) is where I initially was. The 2nd (listed 2nd) is where I am now:

1 - UWRF initially had the feel of NCC in their first Stagg Bowl vs UWW, but maybe a more apt comp is Cortland when they beat NCC. Star veteran QB, multiple weapons that create problems for the defenses they face, a difficult scheme to defend. They lost a game early that seemed to have flipped a switch. They have played an astounding 8 games against Top 25 teams (NCC has only played 4, more on this in the 2nd mind) and won all but 1 by multiple scores. They are explosive.

2 - While UWRF has played 8 games against Top 25 teams, it is pretty widely agreed that in D3 not all ranked teams are created equal and there are generally gaps (sometimes large, usually showing up in the form of team speed and line play). UWRF has not had to play anyone in that top tier yet (outside of maybe St Johns in 2022,  the current group's only exposure is based on WIAC play, however you feel about that). When comping Cortland, who also didn't play a top tier team, vs NCC's D - I don't think UWRF's WRs are at the level that Cortland's were. Also, NCC was without their best defensive players (AA CB Walker, AA DT Lester, and AA DE Egbo was playing on one leg if I remember correctly) and their kicker was a liability. All of that NCC was a failed 2 pt conversion away from taking the lead with 1 min left.

The little problem for UWRF (I say "little" because I assume UWRF thinks they can just outscore anyone so probably aren't too worried about it): While NCC's offense isn't what it was in 2023 when they lost to Cortland, it is still better than any offense UWRF has faced in a season where they have given up 33 to Alma, 47 to Coe and 41 to JHU. Scoring won't be a problem for NCC.

The JP Sullivan sized problem for UWRF will be NCC's D. They've only given up over 20 pts 3 times, and 2 of those were because they had their 2nd team in and gave up late TDs. I think UWRF's line/scheme will be able to protect Blaha well enough to score but I don't think they will protect Blaha well enough to negate not being able to stop NCC's offense. They will not have seen a front 4 or defensive team speed like they're going to see this weekend. When the pocket breaks down Blaha will absolutely make some plays with his feet early, but that is ultimately going to cost him as the hits start to pile up.

Prediction - I think the NCC/Bethel and UWRF/JHU scores are most telling when trying to suss out what is to come. Bethel is likely the #3 team in the country (if we say NCC 1 and UWRF 2). The game was close at half and then all the sudden NCC was up 35-7 with 5 min left. On the other side, UWRF v JHU was an instant classic, but that means either team could have won...and JHU is not on Bethel's level, in my opinion. A regular Stagg Bowl  week would have really benefitted UWRF here, as NCC hasn't seen a dual threat QB like Blaha in a while. As it is though, NCC will have had 2 weeks to prepare/scheme.

Weather will not be a factor (cold but not COLD, no precip/wind), so we will get a Bears/49ers-esque game for 2-3 quarters, with NCC pulling away as the damn starts to break up front and the hits take a toll on Blaha.

NCC - 52
UWRF - 35

[robertgoulet]

Knowing that USee has forgotten more about football than I'll ever even know I am happy with my novice analysis when looking at his    Ultimately I think we come to the same conclusion, though his is more professional!

[D3fanboy]

NCC could name the score.  The Cards are the only team that resembles the pre-portal days of prime D3FB.  People will tell you how great and deep D3FB is these days, but the top level has just dropped down (other than NCC). Unless NCC fumbles 2-4 times, the River Hawks will be physically outmanned.  UWRF are the kings of good, but NCC (and other D3FB dynasties) are just on a different level 

[robertgoulet]

NCC could name the score.  The Cards are the only team that resembles the pre-portal days of prime D3FB.  People will tell you how great and deep D3FB is these days, but the top level has just dropped down (other than NCC). Unless NCC fumbles 2-4 times, the River Hawks will be physically outmanned.  UWRF are the kings of good, but NCC (and other D3FB dynasties) are just on a different level 

Kinda where my gut has led me over the last 2 weeks.

[D3fanboy]

NCC could name the score.  The Cards are the only team that resembles the pre-portal days of prime D3FB.  People will tell you how great and deep D3FB is these days, but the top level has just dropped down (other than NCC). Unless NCC fumbles 2-4 times, the River Hawks will be physically outmanned.  UWRF are the kings of good, but NCC (and other D3FB dynasties) are just on a different level 

Kinda where my gut has led me over the last 2 weeks.

is Blaha a "generational talent" or is he a talented 7th year senior competing in a mid (as the kids say) D3FB?  I guess we'll see on Sunday

[Gregory Sager]

NCC could name the score.  The Cards are the only team that resembles the pre-portal days of prime D3FB.  People will tell you how great and deep D3FB is these days, but the top level has just dropped down (other than NCC). Unless NCC fumbles 2-4 times, the River Hawks will be physically outmanned.  UWRF are the kings of good, but NCC (and other D3FB dynasties) are just on a different level 

Wrong raptor. UWRF is the Falcons, not the "River Hawks".